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MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
17,293
42,025
Oregon
But there is a limit on the number of new IDRA Gigapresses can make each year (likely required to produce structural packs), so DO NOT hold your breath. Those presses will go first to Models 2/Z factories, then Robotaxi...
I don't think the structural packs will be made by a casting process... I think that they will be a more conventional process for the "box" that contains the cells.
 

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,709
15,202
QLD Australia
I don't think the structural packs will be made by a casting process... I think that they will be a more conventional process for the "box" that contains the cells.
I think Dodger means, front and rear castings are required to be used with structural packs.

Austin, Berlin and Shanghai will be expanded and IMO all 3 will make Model 3 and one or more 25K models. Even that doesn't get Tesla on to the 20 million vechicles per year run rate without additional factories which typically take 2-3 years to ramp.

Accelerating clean enegy and transport requires a lot of rapid growth.

It is my unsubstantiated hope that the 25K models can use IDRA 4000 series casting machines, IDRA may be able to make them faster, and they may have a faster cycle time.
 
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Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
11,059
151,770
Canada
I don't think the structural packs will be made by a casting process... I think that they will be a more conventional process for the "box" that contains the cells.

Yes, thats still TBD, but the imagery provided on Bty Day (to my eye at least) suggests that the plan is for a cast battery box...

EDIT: here's the relevent slide from Bty Day so folks can judge for themselves: :)

BD.SlideDeck.Pg64.jpg

Either way, it does not change the main point which is that 4680s packs are NOT coming to the Model S/X anytime soon.

Cheers!
 
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MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,709
15,202
QLD Australia
Yes, thats still TBD, but the imagery provided on Bty Day (to my eye at least) suggests that the plan is for a cast battery box. It seems to me it'll have better structural integrity when integrated with front + rear gigacastings if the center section has a similar construction.

Still, it does not change the main point, which is that 4680s are NOT coming to the Model S/X anytime soon.
What they said was front and rear castings were rewarded to feather the shear force transfers into the pack, and cell cans were part of the structure...

The plan is 4680 structural pack, front and rear castings for Model Y at Austin and Berlin.
Cybertruck might be similar, in both cases, new cells and new vechicle production.

Moving Model S/X to 4680 might not increase vechicle production, even it it does, that would be minor compared to Model Y and Cybertruck volumes.
 
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Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
11,059
151,770
Canada
Moving Model S/X to 4680 might not increase vechicle production, even it it does, that would be minor compared to Model Y and Cybertruck volumes.

Lol, you're NEARLY there: Moving Model S/X to 4680 might WOULD DEFINITELY decrease vehicle production, because Tesla would be passing up on a 10 GWh/yr supply of battery cells.

Every three Models S/X made with 100 KWh 4680 packs means that four Models Y could not be built with 75 KWh 4680 packs.

18650s can not be replaced w/o sacrificing other production while Tesla is using every cell they can buy or make.

Ergo, until there is a surplus of battery cells (years from now), THERE WILL BE NO 4680s in S/X.
 
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SPadival

Active Member
May 7, 2016
1,129
11,089
Oz
FTFY. Surely you're aware that Canadians who have invested in TSLA via a TFSA would have to pay a 15% flat tax on any U.S. dividends?

....and Germans a flat 25% cap gains tax (+5.5% solidarity tax + 8-9% church tax on the cap gains tax amount, so worst case 29%)

I do not approve of dividends!
 
IMO a factory to make batteries for energy storage in Australia makes a lot of sense, a factory to make cars in Australia is a real long shot..

India is far more likely, not just because of the size of the local market.

As you mention it is a good location for an export hub, but also ahead of Australia on engineering talent and well ahead on local parts suppliers.
Australia closed its car industry a few years ago, parts suppliers also mostly closed, it is hard to reverse that.

What makes India interesting too is the potential (free?) trade agreement between the EU and India. That will probably make India more attractive than China for EU imports (assuming Berlin needs help with demand), also from a shipping time perspective.
 
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mulder1231

Active Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,828
10,641
San Diego
Industry answer is chips. 4680 or other battery issues doesn't sound right because so many model S were parked in lots. With X I wonder if it is insufficient supply of 4680 cells causing the delay.
Does Tesla count cars parked in lots waiting for a part as “produced” car in the quarter? If not then the numbers are even better then people think.
 

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