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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Skipdd

Member
Supporting Member
Dec 30, 2015
770
1,283
Silver Spring, MD
I haven’t seen this linked:

Agile at Tesla, by Joe Justice

Joe is apparently a big name in agile, and in this video he details how Tesla does agile. I recommend watching it, there are a lot of details, including how Elon works at Tesla, plus some SpaceX stuff in the end (which is still relevant, as all Musk companies use these methods). The start is a bit slow, and there’s some humblebrag moments.
Thank you for sharing! This answers the question I posed last night about the management process Tesla uses across its business. Wow, just wow.
 

FireMedic

‘20 3P-Red Rocket & ‘20 LRX-Falcon Heavy
Supporting Member
Jan 26, 2020
435
7,095
Bay Area, Ca
More people than you think would jump at the chance to not have to live in SV… many are only there for the jobs. The insane COL, taxes, and even the politics can be pretty oppressive.
Some maybe. Some of us stay here for proximity to beautiful beaches, Tahoe, Yosemite, Sequoias, Arts, great food, diversity and culture.

Granted it’s the things you said too; but plenty of people here could leave if they wanted to, but choose to stay.

As with anyplace, you take the good with the bad. I don’t think it was OP’s intent; but I can’t let people trash on California (specifically the Bay Area) without pointing out the oversights.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,849
34,204
I don’t think we will see 6 GF in US. Possibly 3 Tera Factories.

One TF is, like Elon said at battery day, more like 10 factories. Austin is that thing. Fremont will be updated and one more location, maybe.

We will see, the future is exciting! Thanks to Elon! 😁
Probably the next two or three large factories will be in new markets, such as Indonesia for batteries, someplace in southwestern China to serve Southeast Asia for energy products and the new China-designed model. There will also be a new GF somewhere, most likely Mexico or Brazil. Also there is high probability of large expansion of the Austin, Berlin and Shanghai locations for a variety of new products. The available land suggests that in all three. Then there will also be a major lantern somewhere in Southern or Eastern Europe.

Multiple US new factories will only happen if US government policies change substantially to encourage Tesla.
 

elasalle

driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
4,859
29,549
VA
Probably the next two or three large factories will be in new markets, such as Indonesia for batteries, someplace in southwestern China to serve Southeast Asia for energy products and the new China-designed model. There will also be a new GF somewhere, most likely Mexico or Brazil. Also there is high probability of large expansion of the Austin, Berlin and Shanghai locations for a variety of new products. The available land suggests that in all three. Then there will also be a major lantern somewhere in Southern or Eastern Europe.

Multiple US new factories will only happen if US government policies change substantially to encourage Tesla.

Once GF Austin, Berlin open .. shouldn't Tesla pause to see at what pace consumption keeps up with production?

Will need to see how GF China volumes are absorbed? New markets - South East Asia (Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia), maybe other Asian countries too?
One thing that was bought up was Tesla is trying to keep China deliveries in line with local competition - so as to fly under the radar. Ultimate backup for China though is to move to the 25K segment - if M3/MY production is more than demand.
 

Sudre

Active Member
May 30, 2012
1,071
7,043
So, how far does the stock price fall Monday?
I would say OMG Max-pain is so low but...... there are hardly any Calls to defend.
I am afraid to say it but there is no reason to hold it down IF it wants to run.

Screenshot 2021-10-02 8.23.05 PM.png
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,849
34,204
Once GF Austin, Berlin open .. shouldn't Tesla pause to see at what pace consumption keeps up with production?

Will need to see how GF China volumes are absorbed? New markets - South East Asia (Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia), maybe other Asian countries too?
One thing that was bought up was Tesla is trying to keep China deliveries in line with local competition - so as to fly under the radar. Ultimate backup for China though is to move to the 25K segment - if M3/MY production is more than demand.
Tesla has zero presence, zero in markets that represent ~40% of global vehicle sales. From much of Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia plus Indonesia and Philippines, Africa, almost all the Middle East, plus all of South America. Brazil alone is typically the 6th largest vehicle market in the world. Tesla will remain supply limited for some years. After that there remains large swathes of North America with minimal Tesla presence. Frankly, they need new factories for Energy Products and Superchargers. After all new Supercharger locations produce Tesla sales.

No Tesla must NOT pause!
 

Paul_SF

Member
Feb 12, 2020
649
7,606
US
Probably the next two or three large factories will be in new markets, such as Indonesia for batteries, someplace in southwestern China to serve Southeast Asia for energy products and the new China-designed model. There will also be a new GF somewhere, most likely Mexico or Brazil. Also there is high probability of large expansion of the Austin, Berlin and Shanghai locations for a variety of new products. The available land suggests that in all three. Then there will also be a major lantern somewhere in Southern or Eastern Europe.

Multiple US new factories will only happen if US government policies change substantially to encourage Tesla.
Makes sense. That’s why I think there’s no need for more than 3 in US. Based on the estimate from Elon that one GF is like 10 old manufacturing factories. The machine that makes the machines.
 

Bet TSLA

Active Member
Dec 8, 2014
2,904
11,952
Cupertino, CA
This is a bit off-topic. And perhaps I shouldn't even reveal this, lest people try to move here.

The cost of living in Silicon Valley isn't "high" so much as it's just front-loaded. It's meant to weed out the weaker ones, like intro comp sci or organic chem for pre-meds. The sticker price of a house here is astronomical, but actually if you crunch the numbers the total cost of ownership of a home in SV over the long term is not so high, actually lower than in Austin. Your first decade in Silicon Valley you're going to be saying "Oh my god this place is insane!" 2nd decade, "Huh, not as insane as I thought." 3rd decade in SV, "What am I gonna do with all this money?"
Hmm. I'm just starting my fourth decade in Silicon Valley. Just what is it you think I'm going to say? BTW, you are totally wrong on the first three decades, at least for me.
 

UnknownSoldier

Unknown Member
Supporting Member
Apr 17, 2017
2,244
14,065
Earth
This is a bit off-topic. And perhaps I shouldn't even reveal this, lest people try to move here.

The cost of living in Silicon Valley isn't "high" so much as it's just front-loaded. It's meant to weed out the weaker ones, like intro comp sci or organic chem for pre-meds. The sticker price of a house here is astronomical, but actually if you crunch the numbers the total cost of ownership of a home in SV over the long term is not so high, actually lower than in Austin. Your first decade in Silicon Valley you're going to be saying "Oh my god this place is insane!" 2nd decade, "Huh, not as insane as I thought." 3rd decade in SV, "What am I gonna do with all this money?"
You forgot to mention the part where you're supposed to start a company in SV and take it public to become a billionaire.

The vast majority of people, probably 99.9999%, aren't starting the next SV tech company that becomes Facebook and will never wonder what they are going to do with all this money.
 

Gigapress

Member
Sep 20, 2021
276
3,996
Seattle, WA
I haven’t seen this linked:

Agile at Tesla, by Joe Justice

Joe is apparently a big name in agile, and in this video he details how Tesla does agile. I recommend watching it, there are a lot of details, including how Elon works at Tesla, plus some SpaceX stuff in the end (which is still relevant, as all Musk companies use these methods). The start is a bit slow, and there’s some humblebrag moments.
Thank you so much.

I thought I had soaked up every scrap of information on Tesla available on the internet. I thought I couldn't get more bullish. Little did I know this channel was out there.

I watched a different Joe Justice video just now in which he said that Tesla runs the agile method on a 3 hour sprint cycle with 12 hour work shifts.

A mind-blowing example of their agility was his description of the Giga Nevada construction process
--> Buy land
--> In the very next sprint--literally the next one--move everyone that was in some warehouse experimenting with battery production into a cheap popup sprung tent on the land
--> In the next sprint after the tent is set up, start setting up production equipment
--> Then as soon as physically possible after that, start constructing the building around the tent.
-->Have construction workers, building design engineers and manufacturing engineers ask the people in the tent what they need and feedback on their design of the future production line every single hour 24/7 until the job is done.
--> Design the manufacturing line based on how the work in the tent is going.
--> Then, when that modular square of the factory is done, if production speed does not immediately increase, in the first sprint, upon activation of the line...rip out the offending equipment and start over because that means you failed.

Upon completion of each square of the building, move the tent to an adjacent spot and start the same process over with another portion of the production system.

This reminds me of how at AI Day, Elon commented that the goal of Dojo and sole metric of its success is if the Training team wants to stop using the old training hardware. I now realize he probably meant that Dojo is expected to improve productivity within hours of going online.

When Elon says that advanced manufacturing is going to be Tesla's long-term competitive advantage, I thought with my manufacturing background and religious watching of Munro Live teardowns that I knew what Elon meant. On some level I did understand, but this is on a higher level than I even knew was possible.
 

MartinAustin

Active Member
Jul 21, 2013
2,821
12,947
Austin, Texas USA
Once GF Austin, Berlin open .. shouldn't Tesla pause to see at what pace consumption keeps up with production?
IMO in 2023, with Texas+Berlin ramping up, Tesla will announce new factory construction in places around the world like India, Brazil, South Africa and another one in China... so that there are *FOUR* simultaneously under construction. Tesla has the cash to pay for all of them. Production starting in 2024-5.

This is a critical part of their roadmap to reach their goal of 20million vehicles/yr by 2030. Model2/Q will be under construction at all of the new ones
 

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