Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

There is zero chance 18650s will be used for the $25k model. The $25k model is going to be the highest volume car tesla produces, so the relatively tiny amount of 18650 supply is going to be useless for it. basically a certainty the $25k models will use 4680s in Europe & USA where Tesla is going to scale 4680 production to 3TW capacity (unsure exactly what the situation will be in China, but again they won’t be 18650s)

 

[RobDickinson]

There is zero chance 18650s will be used for the $25k model. The $25k model is going to be the highest volume car tesla produces, so the relatively tiny amount of 18650 supply is going to be useless for it. basically a certainty the $25k models will use 4680s in Europe & USA where Tesla is going to scale 4680 production to 3TW capacity (unsure exactly what the situation will be in China, but again they won’t be 18650s)

$25k car will use LFP cells for sure, we dont know if tesla will make those in 4680s (in any short term timeline) or they will just buy prismatic from CATL.

 

[dhanson865]

There is zero chance 18650s will be used for the $25k model. The $25k model is going to be the highest volume car tesla produces, so the relatively tiny amount of 18650 supply is going to be useless for it. basically a certainty the $25k models will use 4680s in Europe & USA where Tesla is going to scale 4680 production to 3TW capacity (unsure exactly what the situation will be in China, but again they won’t be 18650s)

It wouldn't be the primary battery for all trims and all markets but we've already seen Tesla use various pack types on the Model 3/Y. Nothing stopping them from using the 18650s for RHD only cars or some other small segment they will deal with anyway. Push the 4680s to everything you can. Use the 2170 and 18650 where you can because you don't have unlimited supplies and this is your limiting factor.

 

[Thekiwi]

3 shut down car factories around me in Melbourne in 3 different directions

Who knows… with increased usage of castings and shared components, in time tesla may be able to perfect a factory model for midsize markets like Australia etc where one manufacturing line can swiftly switch between half a dozen models making it more viable to base locally. So in a quarter one factory may spent half the time on the 25k model(s), and the other half split between 3/Y/S/X/van/etc).

 

[Featsbeyond50]

In addition to what other people said, the IP they stole may not be covered by a patent. (Like hiring practices, wages/bonuses paid/etc.)

I don't get that either (though I accept the explanations from Rob and Starfox). Just what is the problem with steeling employees, are these employees breaking noncompete contracts? If so, that's on them, not Rivian.

For the record, I'm not a Rivian fanboy. All in on TSLA.

 

[The Accountant]

EDITED for Errors in calculation
Solely a back of the envelope calculation.
Just to put into perspective the US mid-April delivery date for Model Y LR model.

- If Tesla sold 47,000 Model Ys in September Q3 in the US
- and 82% were LR trim (32,540)
- a 6.5 month backlog (Oct 1 to April 15) tells us Tesla has 250,510 83,503 orders on hand to fulfill just for the Model Y LR alone in the US.

This assumes Tesla is not projecting Austin in their capacity when providing delivery dates.
If they are factoring Austin's capacity, then outstanding orders may be over 300,000 100,000 for this model/trim in the US.
Lots of assumptions on my envelope but I suspect my number is not far off.

 

[Thekiwi]

It wouldn't be the primary battery for all trims and all markets but we've already seen Tesla use various pack types on the Model 3/Y. Nothing stopping them from using the 18650s for RHD only cars or some other small segment they will deal with anyway. Push the 4680s to everything you can. Use the 2170 and 18650 where you can because you don't have unlimited supplies and this is your limiting factor.

Tesla is far more likely to use those small amount of alternative format cells for stationary storage products than for a different $25k variant where the 18650 supply would only amount to less than 1% of targeted unit output.

management said recently that when they have temporary excess cell supply (above car manufacturing capacity), those cells go into stationary storage shipments.

 

[RobDickinson]

Solely a back of the envelope calculation.
Just to put into perspective the US mid-April delivery date for Model Y LR model.

- If Tesla sold 47,000 Model Ys in September in the US
- and 82% were LR trim (32,540)
- a 6.5 month backlog (Oct 1 to April 15) tells us Tesla has 250,510 orders on hand to fulfill just for the Model Y LR alone in the US.

This assumes Tesla is not projecting Austin in their capacity when providing delivery dates.
If they are factoring Austin's capacity, then outstanding orders may be over 300,000 for this model/trim in the US.
Lots of assumptions on my envelope but I suspect my number is not far off.

View attachment 717507

Assuming Tesla isnt restricted by something else in Fremont, chip supply, paint throughput etc.

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't get that either (though I accept the explanations from Rob and Starfox). Just what is the problem with steeling employees, are these employees breaking noncompete contracts? If so, that's on them, not Rivian.

It has nothing to do with stealing employees. It has to do with asking the Tesla employees they hire to bring Tesla IP/documents with them. Like how they run hiring process, how much they pay people, how bonuses are calculated, how they negotiate with sites for Superchargers, how they size/run mobile service operations, etc. (None of that is covered by patents, and it isn't public information.)

 

[RobDickinson]

Also 47,000 sales in a month? That would be a 550k+ production rate for model Y out of Fremont, which just isnt true.

They sell a lot of cars in the last month because of logistics, even in USA. They'll be basing order times on production though which is a lot lower.

 

[The Accountant]

Also 47,000 sales in a month? That would be a 550k+ production rate for model Y out of Fremont, which just isnt true.

They sell a lot of cars in the last month because of logistics, even in USA. They'll be basing order times on production though which is a lot lower.

Ah - I see my error - will correct - the 47k was the quarter.

 

[mongo]

I don't get that either (though I accept the explanations from Rob and Starfox). Just what is the problem with steeling employees, are these employees breaking noncompete contracts? If so, that's on them, not Rivian.

For the record, I'm not a Rivian fanboy. All in on TSLA.

Person leaves job A for job B -> normal, but annoying
Person leaves and takes proprietary info ->

• Company B refuses to use it and reports breach -> best
• Company B refuses to use it -> chaotic neutral
• Company B knowingly uses the info -> bad

Company B requests person bring proprietary info with them

• Person reports B -> best
• Person doesn't take info and still goes to work for B -> chaotic neutral
• Person pulls as much info as they can and B uses it -> worst

Roll 2D20 for damages

Things like cell formulas, recruiting lists, salary ranges. Even if they are memorizable, using the trade secrets/ proprietary IP for 3rd party is against their NDA and naughty.

Like this, but imagine if Pepsi had solicited the data:
Ex-Coke aide gets 8 years in trade secrets case

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Person leaves job A for job B -> normal, but annoying
Person leaves and takes proprietary info ->

• Company B refuses to use it and reports breach -> best
• Company B refuses to use it -> chaotic neutral
• Company B knowingly uses the info -> bad

Company B requests person bring proprietary info with them

• Person reports B -> best
• Person doesn't take info and still goes to work for B -> chaotic neutral
• Person pulls as much info as they can and B uses it -> worst

Roll 2D20 for damages

Things like cell formulas, recruiting lists, salary ranges. Even if they are memorizable, using the trade secrets/ proprietary IP for 3rd party is against their NDA and naughty.

Like this, but imagine if Pepsi had solicited the data:
Ex-Coke aide gets 8 years in trade secrets case

How does Tesla know these practices are happening?

 

[Rarity]

First, I just want to mention, as a Californian it saddens me to realize that Elon is slowly and steadily getting ready to move the headquarters of Tesla out of CA. A big reason for it is the stupidity of politics in CA, but I don't think that is all of it. One of his reasonings to do this would also be to get Tesla a greater visibility and validation as an "All American Company". To a large portion of the country, a company based in SV is almost foreign. I am always amazed at how many of my friends and work colleagues on the east cost even don't realize that Tesla is an all American company and the cars are the most American made cars. Change this to an address in the middle of the country, especially TX, and suddenly the American made topic gets more prominence and authenticity.

Yes, he is slowly and steadily getting ready to move HQ to Austin. But probably only partly because of the politics. Rather, Musk is transforming Tesla into a company suitable to tackle its ambitions. I doubt there are any other places in the world where there are several thousand acres of well-situated contiguous land next to an adequate, varied labor supply.

 

[mongo]

How does Tesla know these practices are happening?

IT department has file access tracking, logging on work PCs, network monitoring, the usual.
Tesla sues Rivian over ‘disturbing pattern’ of alleged trade secret theft

To misquote Spaceballs: "Tesla will always triumph because the competition is dumb"

 

[MP3Mike]

How does Tesla know these practices are happening?

Maybe you should read some of the documents in the law suit: Public Portal - Superior Court of California, County of Santa Clara Case number: 20CV368472

But according to Tesla some employees have admitted to doing it. (And have been caught with Tesla IP on their personal devices after they left Tesla.)

 

[Skryll]

Yes, he is slowly and steadily getting ready to move HQ to Austin. But probably only partly because of the politics. Rather, Musk is transforming Tesla into a company suitable to tackle its ambitions. I doubt there are any other places in the world where there are several thousand acres of well-situated contiguous land next to an adequate, varied labor supply.

Interestingly this encourages SV diehards to hire on with rivian instead of moving for their tesla job

 

[Beltsbear]

IT department has file access tracking, logging on work PCs, network monitoring, the usual.
Tesla sues Rivian over ‘disturbing pattern’ of alleged trade secret theft

To misquote Spaceballs: "Tesla will always triumph because the competition is dumb"

You can take a lot of good information perfectly legally. Just because Tesla says it’s a trade secret, does not mean that you can’t use any knowledge you had. Copying files, is wrong, but knowing a strategy in your head to find a battery fault is fair game if it is not patented.

we know Chinese companies have directly stolen Tesla data. We don’t know that Rivian has.

 

[Rarity]

Interestingly this encourages SV diehards to hire on with rivian instead of moving for their tesla job

What proportion of people are SV diehards? It seems like a lot of employees and potential employees have one foot out the door to Austin or Miami already.

I don't live there, so am genuinely curious.

 

[mongo]

You can take a lot of good information perfectly legally. Just because Tesla says it’s a trade secret, does not mean that you can’t use any knowledge you had. Copying files, is wrong, but knowing a strategy in your head to find a battery fault is fair game if it is not patented.

we know Chinese companies have directly stolen Tesla data. We don’t know that Rivian has.

Right, general knowledge/ abilities are fine . PCB files are not(for example, not directly related). From the article, it sure looks like people departing to Rivian took things they ought not have.

Tesla says two of the named defendants admitted to taking confidential information. One is Tami Pascale, who was a senior manager in Tesla’s staffing department. Tesla says that one day after Pascale signed Rivian’s offer letter, she “took at least ten confidential and proprietary documents from Tesla’s network,” including candidate lists, information about where the automaker finds potential hires, and a “detailed internal write-up of an executive level candidate.”