Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uujjj2]

There's been a major oil spill off the coast of Southern California. Hitting the news right now. Reminder of the importance of the Tesla mission.

 

[winfield100]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1444749111262068743

Plus we have a short squeeze at some point still to come - 3% of float but effectively higher due to number of puts (Factchecking suggesting total is more like 8+% of float).
20% of float total....

ok, can someone explain the abbreviations please
what is
bm'd
AUM is assets under managements
PM ??? (pension managers?)
(Could this be one reason money flow seems into TSLA since around 8/6 and steeper slope since 9/10)

"SLA still under-owned by active mgrs bm’d to S&P 500 ($9T AUM) where it’s a 1.7% wt. If PMs under-own TSLA by 1/2, that’s a $75B opportunity, or 12% of float. Blowout 3Q delivs could cause PMs to step up as China and semis concerns ease, but still looks expensive on P/E."

3:40 PM · Oct 3, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

 

[Rarity]

bm'd = benchmarked
pm = portfolio managers

 

[RobDickinson]

There's been a major oil spill off the coast of Southern California. Hitting the news right now. Reminder of the importance of the Tesla mission.

But an oil spill from good union jobs I hear...

 

[ninpb]

There's been a major oil spill off the coast of Southern California. Hitting the news right now. Reminder of the importance of the Tesla mission.

They cancelled the last day of the air show because of it. Hopefully a lot of annoyed little kids remember what was the cause of it.

 

[Mike Smith]

Anyone who tries to imply correlation with 'largest stock price rise' while working somewhere for a maximum of two months is a charlatan.

I lived on planet earth while humanity went to the moon. Please hire me.

Reminds me of the guy who was claiming to be Elon's brain coach.

 

[heltok]

I just find this unbelievable. So instead of a BEV Prius which should exist by now, we get a hydrogen powered Prius that has a combustion engine to burn hydrogen. I am not one for betting against a company, but Toyota really looks like an easy play with the highest automotive market cap outside of Tesla. A least most of the others auto companies seem to understand they have a big issue. Toyota thinks they are going to muscle through this disruption on their terms.

Toyota Prius With Hydrogen-Fueled Combustion Engine Coming In 2025

A rumor from Japan strengthens previous reports of an upcoming Toyota Prius with a hydrogen-powered combustion engine.

www.motor1.com

I remember when the iPhone came and I was discussing Japanese phones vs the iPhone with a another investor who had lived in Japan. The Japanese phones had lots of functionality, could do video calls, had tv and other things. They were slightly larger than Nokias and Ericssons but definitely more advanced. My intuition was screaming that iPhone would take over, their pinch-zoom was just so smooth and it just seemed like a user experience that user wanted. He was convinced the Japanese people would never buy iPhones in any big numbers. We know what happened. What can be learned?

Imo what really put me off the Japanese phones were that they didn’t try to expand their market to other countries. This should be a major warning flag. If your product is actually superior then you want to scale it to other markets and make a profit. If it’s not then user will gravitate towards the superior product. Are Toyota gonna expand Hydrogen in any meaningful way outside of Japan or are they banking on getting subsidies from the Japanese government? Imo it really seems like the latter. So clearly their product is not superior.

Do they have too much pride and not enough hunger to innovate? Imo they seem at a great risk for this, given how dominant they have been for most of the time their employees have been employed at the company. Meanwhile the Tesla and Chinese employees have been fighting on the brink of bankrupcy most of their careers so they are likely more open to new ideas and eating some humble pie when needed.

I think one major problem is that Tesla are not very big in Japan yet, so the Toyota workers don’t know how it feels to drive a Plaid vs a hydrogen Prius, how it feels to take a European roadtrip in a Model Y vs doing the same roadtrip in a hydrogen Mirai. Just a few hours of real life experience and the low level managers should be scared shitless. But they are not… Maybe some managers in their hierarchy have performed these basic tests, but then they have a local culture of deference and not questioning your superior that will prevent this insight from spreading through the company.

So imo Toyota is as ****ed as Kyocera, Sharp, Sony, Softbank, Motorola, Panasonic, Toshiba etc were when the iPhone entered the market:

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Japan has long had the problem of being a "Galapagos" market because Japanese culture is so insular and different from all of Asia and the rest of the world. It's hard to be competitive when you have evolved to serve only your own domestic market, and cultural barriers have long made it difficult for Japan to understand what consumers outside Japan want. There's not much anyone can do about it, either Japan wants to change or they don't.

 

[HG Wells]

So, what happens tomorrow.
Typical UP UP UP then down to RED ?

 

[Paul_SF]

Japan has long had the problem of being a "Galapagos" market because Japanese culture is so insular and different from all of Asia and the rest of the world. It's hard to be competitive when you have evolved to serve only your own domestic market, and cultural barriers have long made it difficult for Japan to understand what consumers outside Japan want. There's not much anyone can do about it, either Japan wants to change or they don't.

If only there was a Japanese in the Tesla Team that can talk some sense into some of them, or for the Japanese people to hear it from him.

What they say, when the time is right the Hiro appears?

 

[jw934]

I think the main problem is that Tesla are not very big in Japan yet, so their workers don’t know how it feels to drive a Plaid vs a hydrogen Prius, how it feel to take a European roadtrip in a Model Y vs doing the same roadtrip in a hydrogen Mirai. Just a few hours of real life experience and the low level managers should be scared shitless. But they are not… Maybe some managers in their hierarchy has done these basic tests, but then they have a local culture of deference and not questioning your superior that will prevent this insight from spreading through the company.

With regards to why Japan may be focusing on hydrogen vehicles v.s. battery electric:

Japan' heavily dependent on foreign sources of energy is a weakness. Japan's goal of energy independence is more a strategic, economic, and geopolitical than an environmental issue. The popular solution for that has shifted from nuclear to methane hydrate due to the recent tsunami incident.

The hydrogen it intends to use for transportation would be directly converted from these hydrates.

Methane Hydrate

www.japex.co.jp

"Methane hydrate is confirmed to exist abundantly in the sea near Japan and is expected to become one of the domestic energy resources of the future. With the aim of realizing commercialization in the private sector, the government is currently leading the development of technologies and the evaluation of the amount of resources"

Edit: Japan offers a substantial incentive for green energy vehicles, and 1.1% of new cars are BEVs.

https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/japan-transition-electric-vehicles

 

[CHGolferJim]

Japan has long had the problem of being a "Galapagos" market because Japanese culture is so insular and different from all of Asia and the rest of the world. It's hard to be competitive when you have evolved to serve only your own domestic market, and cultural barriers have long made it difficult for Japan to understand what consumers outside Japan want. There's not much anyone can do about it, either Japan wants to change or they don't.

Japanese are not monolithic in their outlooks. Your generalization may broadly to many older and traditional people, but much less so with the middle-aged and younger. The large corporate system does tend to perpetuate these kinds of attitudes, but not everyone works there or is influenced that much by them. [Lived in Japan 5 years.]

 

[Featsbeyond50]

So, what happens tomorrow.
Typical UP UP UP then down to RED ?

I expect red tomorrow.

Over the last two quarters the market has reacted to all the Beats with a too cool for school attitude. In other words, no real reaction. Then over the following weeks they try to sneak in the backdoor with their buys buys. Until that trend changes, that's what I expect. As Magic Johnson used to say "go to the well until the well runs dry".

 

[Knightshade]

I expect red tomorrow.

Over the last two quarters the market has reacted to all the Beats with a too cool for school attitude. In other words, no real reaction.

Q1 P&D released April 2 (Good Friday, markets were closed)- stock had closed Thursday at $661.75. Next trading day it opened up quite a bit ($707.71), intraday high only just above that ($708.16), intraday low at $684.70, and closed at $691.05, almost $30 up from pre-P&D.



Q2 P&D released July 2 after closing that day at $678.90. Next trading day it opened up slightly ($681.71), intraday high of $684, intraday low of $651.40-- and closed overall down almost $20 ($659.58) from before P&D.



So Q1, big pop for open, close was still up a fair bit.

Q2 tiny bump at open, close was down a fair bit.

 

[AlMc]

Welcome to the club.. After deleting my old LinkedIn account, I re-created a profile with “semi retired” as the job title.. just to pss off some of my nasty former colleagues

There are an increasing number of us in this "TSLA allowed me to retire early boat". As @Artful Dodger would say 'Cheers'

 

[RobDickinson]

All the analysts priced in a 10-20% over production/sales on their 200-220k estimates or something...

 

[JustMe]

So, what happens tomorrow.
Typical UP UP UP then down to RED ?

Yep

I expect a jump at the open followed by a downward drift to close with a loss of a dollar or two. I think TSLA will continue up ‘n down, gradually higher in the established channel.

I think the next significant move won’t happen until Q3 earnings

 

[hacer]

You're not the Moderator of this forum. This is serious misinformation. Refreshed Models X will use 18650s for years to come. Full stop.

Providing wiggle room to perpetuate known false narratives out of a "sense of fairness" doesn't advance the Mission, it delays it.

What's worse, it's the casual reader or newcomer that will be most influenced by your attempt at distraction.

That's really rich coming from someone who willfully refuses to read the (fairly short) authoritative document defining the meaning of marking a transaction as "short exempt" for the express purpose of sustaining your own false narrative. Head in the sand.

Spoiler

Probably should send this to snippiness

 

[navguy12]

Japan has long had the problem of being a "Galapagos" market because Japanese culture is so insular and different from all of Asia and the rest of the world. It's hard to be competitive when you have evolved to serve only your own domestic market, and cultural barriers have long made it difficult for Japan to understand what consumers outside Japan want. There's not much anyone can do about it, either Japan wants to change or they don't.

Perhaps the North American demand for large pickup trucks and SUVs is another “Galapagos” market, insulated from the rest fo the world and (until recently) was happily fed by the domestic OEMs…who now face the same issues (as the 1990s/early 2000s mobile phone makers in Japan) because of the introduction of the iPhone of cars.

 

[uujjj2]

What proportion of people are SV diehards? It seems like a lot of employees and potential employees have one foot out the door to Austin or Miami already.

I don't live there, so am genuinely curious.

Companies tell employees they can move to Austin or Miami or wherever and keep their SV salaries. It's a lie. Being on a SV salary scale out in Austin or Miami puts you above the market rate, which makes it very hard to get raises or change jobs. It's basically a scam companies use to trap their employees.