Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I reeeeeally hope they go in this direction so individual cells can be easily harvested from wrecked Teslas. Or at least make it so there's a solvent that will dissolve the epoxy.

 

[stealthyc]

Boring!?!?!?!? Do you know how many shares MM's had to eat these last two days? Quite a few!

This is like watching a hot dog eating contest......at some point they're gonna explode!

You say this thing every single week, I hope someday you are right.

 

[vwman111]

I took advantage of the morning dip and took some profits on some AAPL options and rolled them into some TSLA vertical spreads.

Pretty conservative plays. Some fully in the money where I profit so long as they break even over the next few months.

All are Vertical call spreads
Dec 2021 750/ 770 (about an 80% return if TSLA breaks even over the next couple months)
Jan 2022 780/ 800 (near double)

Not much of a day-trader.

Is it rude to talk about trades here?

It's not rude to talk about trades here. You may want to head over to "The Wheel" forum where all the Vertical Spread crackheads are handing out. Fair warning, you will may be mocked for entering Dec/Jan trades. Not much of an endorphin rush with that type of a trade.

 

[RobDickinson]

afik no one (outside of tesla) has seen a real structural pack?

 

[Mengy]

You say this thing every single week, I hope someday you are right.

It does have to unwind at some point. I still feel like it won't bust out until after Q4 earnings, I think the MM's will still hold us mostly down even after Q3.

 

[Ogre]

It's not rude to talk about trades here. You may want to head over to "The Wheel" forum where all the Vertical Spread crackheads are handing out. Fair warning, you will may be mocked for entering Dec/Jan trades. Not much of an endorphin rush with that type of a trade.

I'm ok with boring.

 

[MC3OZ]

Understood, but what I am more concerned about is how the assembly line and robots change. For Austin Y production dont want the required robots for front to be non-cast version. If they can build Y's in Austin with front and rear casts but with some sort of 2170 pack in the middle then the impact should be minimal.

Think of a 2170 pack as a "frame structured pack", my impression is that that the pack has extra structure which helps carry the cells.

From battery day slides a 2170 pack and a 4680 pack seem to be the same shape and size.

Front and rear castings are needed for a "structural pack", but can be used with a "frame structured pack".

I remember reading some time ago that Rivian had end cooled 2170 cells.
But as Tesla can probably drop in a regular 2170 pack, that is good enough.

The structural pack saves weight and cost, but software probably ensures a 4680 and 2170 Model Y deliver the same range and performance.

 

[thx1139]

Think of a 2170 pack as a "frame structured pack", my impression is that that the pack has extra structure which helps carry the cells.

From battery day slides a 2170 pack and a 4680 pack seem to be the same shape and size.

Front and rear castings are needed for a "structural pack", but can be used with a "frame structured pack".

I remember reading some time ago that Rivian had end cooled 2170 cells.
But as Tesla can probably drop in a regular 2170 pack, that is good enough.

The structural pack saves weight and cost, but software probably ensures a 4680 and 2170 Model Y deliver the same range and performance.

To me I dont care about range changes and things like that. I dont want customers to be picking where the Y they order comes from. So if the initial Y's coming from Austin use 2170 cells instead of 4680 cells that is fine to me. When they switch over to 4680 cells the range and prices shouldnt change. Never want the person ordering to get different range or other capability because car came from Austin. I also really dont want the factory to have to be retrofitted with new robots when 4680's ready. Ok minimal changes. I do this not for the person buying, but because I want costs kept down and margins to increase.

 

[MC3OZ]

To me I dont care about range changes and things like that. I dont want customers to be picking where the Y they order comes from. So if the initial Y's coming from Austin use 2170 cells instead of 4680 cells that is fine to me. When they switch over to 4680 cells the range and prices shouldnt change. Never want the person ordering to get different range or other capability because car came from Austin. I also really dont want the factory to have to be retrofitted with new robots when 4680's ready. Ok minimal changes. I do this not for the person buying, but because I want costs kept down and margins to increase.

Watch the battery day video the 2170/4680 packs seem to be the same size.

Perhaps a car body built to use both pack designs is slightly over engineered for 4680s.
In the long run, they might optimise that, but that shouldn't incur significant additional costs.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You say this thing every single week, I hope someday you are right.

Well to come to Mule's defense for a moment, MM's have the ability to naked short but according to the rules they have to return those shares within 3 trading days. So manipulation should be unwound within a week of trading. That's obviously not what is happening.

If you remember back to the stock split announcement, the amount of volume day in and day out between the announcement and the actual split date was absolutely insane. Yes there was a lot more shares shorted, but in no way would it account for the amount of daily volume during the 3-4 week stretch, not even remotely close. It was clear to everyone that mass naked shorting had been going on for a long time. We're talking naked shorting not over months, but years.

I think you have to break it down into two camps. There's MM's who manipulate for weekly options and then another group that are doing long term naked shorting because they know the SEC isn't going to check in on them. JPMorgan is the most blatant example of this.

 

[thx1139]

Do you suppose that for targeted delivery dates on the Tesla site they use 0 production from Austin or Berlin? When do you think they start including production from the factories.

 

[nativewolf]

But what was the dividend yield over that time period? Doesn't make sense to look at only capital gains. A stock that stays at constant price but pays an x% dividend with a y% personal income tax rate has x(1-y) % return on capital.

Not sure if you remember the 70s? Double digit inflation. A 7% dividend and you were in negative real returns. Of course your point is valid just that the 70s and early 80s were brutal.

 

[Hock1]

Here's a thread. The lawyer who won and many other incidents at other legacy auto plants. Google (racism and any legacy automaker) and you will find many similar incidents.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445205796959277056

Lol, you called the "top" within 5 minutes:

View attachment 718140

Here's the deal: certain Options Market Makers (MMs) are playing with "play money". They don't have to locate shares before the sell them. This violation of the law of supply'n'demand means the the SP doesn't react rationally to trading, because one side has effectively a zero inelasticity of supply issue.

I know, because a took 1 micro-economics course at university. When I was 18.

Yes, this is so obvious that even school kids can figure this out. Ironic that our actual economist choose to remain silent on the topic.

Captured by the System. It must take years of higher Education to get there.

In the early ought decade, around 2003-4, I became aware of the naked-short phenomenon, invented and promulgated by Bernie Madoff. When the uptake rule was removed in 2007 (under the watch of George W. and Christopher Cox, SEC Chairman), that was the nail in the coffin for retail investors and it was a coup d'etat for the manipulators. I was a broker at the time. I can't tell you how frustrating it was to talk with anyone in my industry about this issue, because everyone thought I had a propeller hat, like they did Patrick Byrne. No one understood what the hell I was talking about.

Two years ago I talked with a just-retired lawyer for the Nasdaq and told him of my frustration. He confirmed that selling shares naked, along with the ability to sell these non-existent shares at lower and lower prices is rampant in the market and has been for quite a while. As if this advantage wasn't enough, the newest abuse of the system is long-term Fails-to Deliver. Since the big firms own and operate FINRA (literally), the NGO that is responsible for reporting FTD, they have found they can get away with misreporting, or not reporting at all, the amount and durations of the FTDs. As I have mentioned before, the only thing that can force the delivery of these "air shares", is the distribution of new split shares or the distribution of a whole new equity, such as in a spinoff to shareholders. Bastids.

 

[adiggs]

You say this thing every single week, I hope someday you are right.

We were saying that weekly for 5 years before 2020 happened. Getting the big returns as TSLA investors is .. lumpy.

The big difference now vs. then, is that TSLA was a story and possibilities driven investment. That specifically kept the financial metrics driven investors out of the company (as it does with any growth oriented company).

Today we're at the leading edge of the possibilities becoming reality in the quarterly financial profits. As those possibilities become increasingly apparent, we'll pull more and more of those financial metrics driven investors into the company. More buyers = more demand = higher share price.


It's still a story driven and possibilities driven investment - it's just changing so that some of those possibilities ALSO show up in the financials.

 

[JRP3]

I reeeeeally hope they go in this direction so individual cells can be easily harvested from wrecked Teslas. Or at least make it so there's a solvent that will dissolve the epoxy.

The non structural Model 3/Y cells are already almost impossible to remove without damage, unlikely the structural 4680's would be easier.

 

[Gigapress]

Not sure if you remember the 70s? Double digit inflation. A 7% dividend and you were in negative real returns. Of course your point is valid just that the 70s and early 80s were brutal.

That same inflation adjustment would apply equally to capital gains though, which was the original point.

 

[adiggs]

It's not rude to talk about trades here. You may want to head over to "The Wheel" forum where all the Vertical Spread crackheads are handing out. Fair warning, you will may be mocked for entering Dec/Jan trades. Not much of an endorphin rush with that type of a trade.

All are welcome to join in with us Vertical Spread crackheads. And no mocking will occur!

Heck - if you find an edge and are particularly success with monthly trades vs. weekly trades, then we'd like to learn from you so we can all be more successful. Success isn't solely a function of risk/reward, cost/benefit. Its also a function of effort, stomach acid, nightly sleep, emotional swings, and so forth.

 

[stealthyc]

We were saying that weekly for 5 years before 2020 happened. Getting the big returns as TSLA investors is .. lumpy.

The big difference now vs. then, is that TSLA was a story and possibilities driven investment. That specifically kept the financial metrics driven investors out of the company (as it does with any growth oriented company).

Today we're at the leading edge of the possibilities becoming reality in the quarterly financial profits. As those possibilities become increasingly apparent, we'll pull more and more of those financial metrics driven investors into the company. More buyers = more demand = higher share price.


It's still a story driven and possibilities driven investment - it's just changing so that some of those possibilities ALSO show up in the financials.

Oh I'm well aware of all this, and have been through the thick and thin. I just am amused by the weekly optimism that @TheTalkingMule has that next Monday is going to be the one! I meant it purely as gentle ribbing, and I do honestly hope he is right one of these weeks.

My personal viewpoint is that there will still be some fits and starts but I expect a more gradual and steady incline, and not ever another repeat of the hockey stick chart of last year unless something like FSD is truly solved in a surprising timeline.

 

[adiggs]

Oh I'm well aware of all this, and have been through the thick and thin. I just am amused by the weekly optimism that @TheTalkingMule has that next Monday is going to be the one! I meant it purely as gentle ribbing, and I do honestly hope he is right one of these weeks.

My personal viewpoint is that there will still be some fits and starts but I expect a more gradual and steady incline, and not ever another repeat of the hockey stick chart of last year unless something like FSD is truly solved in a surprising timeline.

This is an important reason I like to listen to lots of viewpoints, and especially the reasons why. Reality always seems to land somewhere in between - but wherever it lands, listening to all of those viewpoints and reasons has become quite profitable, in addition to being quite interesting.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In the early ought decade, around 2003-4, I became aware of the naked-short phenomenon, invented and promulgated by Bernie Madoff. When the uptake rule was removed in 2007 (under the watch of George W. and Christopher Cox, SEC Chairman), that was the nail in the coffin for retail investors and it was a coup d'etat for the manipulators. I was a broker at the time. I can't tell you how frustrating it was to talk with anyone in my industry about this issue, because everyone thought I had a propeller hat, like they did Patrick Byrne. No one understood what the hell I was talking about.

Two years ago I talked with a just-retired lawyer for the Nasdaq and told him of my frustration. He confirmed that selling shares naked, along with the ability to sell these non-existent shares at lower and lower prices is rampant in the market and has been for quite a while. As if this advantage wasn't enough, the newest abuse of the system is long-term Fails-to Deliver. Since the big firms own and operate FINRA (literally), the NGO that is responsible for reporting FTD, they have found they can get away with misreporting, or not reporting at all, the amount and durations of the FTDs. As I have mentioned before, the only thing that can force the delivery of these "air shares", is the distribution of new split shares or the distribution of a whole new equity, such as in a spinoff to shareholders. Bastids.

For a serf like me (with all of my 1 year of Economics education + zero industry experience) to figure it out, it must be rotten to the core. Big players are getting filthy rich off this scam (while continuing to emit obscene amounts of carbon). #JPMorganChase

TSLA should move to the LTSE. But only if the SEC can somehow be prevented from applying Reg. SHO (a.k.a. the "Madoff Exemption").