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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,762
33,383
Philadelphia, PA
It really blows my mind that anyone at this point would buy short term calls on this stock. Just 7 straight months of being wiped out on a weekly basis by MM’s and yet there was huge volume in 800 calls both last week and this week. People just throwing their money away
I'm a 10/8 $800c buyer @ $4.20 if we crack that before 3pm. Sitting around $5 now :)
 
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S3XY

Active Member
Supporting Member
Nov 24, 2015
2,122
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Buffalo, NY
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the structural pack doesn't have to go hand in hand with 4680 Cells............Tesla could be create a new 2170 pack that fits into the structural frame for the time being.

Also, you know it's going to make zero difference if you get a Y with 2170's or 4680's/structural pack right? Tesla is simply going to put less cells in the 4680 Model Y to match the exact specs of the current 2170 Model Y for the same price. There will be no difference to you.
That's true as far as range is concerned. However, there will likely be a difference in charging speed and 0 to 60 numbers. But at this point both of those factors are already at acceptable levels.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
11,641
32,257
Seattle, WA
It simply didn't move the share price because market makers chose to absorb most of the volume, and they'll need to unwind that short position eventually. Thursday at 1pm seems a very logical time.
Market makers don't like carrying positions overnight. That kind of a thing will usually gets the "rogue" employee fired.

It seems to me there was a lot of speculative buying who took profit quickly after P&D or call holders closing their positions.

When I say whales - I'm talking about long term holders. Upgrades also result in more long term holders, pushing the price up.
 
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Ogre

Member
Sep 6, 2021
758
2,491
Oregon
If you think about it, the Cybertruck is a full exoskeleton due to the fact that the undercarriage is also part of the exterior of the vehicle. Also, the cast aluminum undercarriage is strong in compressive forces but not in tension (from end to end) so the folded high-strength stainless upper will be doing most of the heavy lifting with regard to the 3500 lb. passenger and cargo capacity. It's a full exoskeleton like no other high GVWR vehicle before it.
I'll buy that for $2. I think a lot of people assume when they say it's a full exo that the "shell" of SS will wrap it the way a crab's shell does. It is as you say though, the underside is just made of a composite of aluminum, battery cells, epoxy, etc. That is welded to the SS likely via bolts and high strength adhesives.
 
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Gigapress

Member
Sep 20, 2021
274
3,984
Seattle, WA
It would greatly increase the complexity of the giga-presses IMO. I'd argue that simplicity of chassis design is paramount to throughput.
Not necessarily. From what I'm hearing from Joe Justice videos, everything at Musk companies is object-oriented with known stable interfaces. This general lack of interdependencies between subsystems would imply that a 2170 structural pack could be plopped right into the battery pan with little extra work. Moreover, if they were making a 2170 structural pack, they would be experimenting with the idea right next to the main 2170 pack production line and integrate the new process immediately after it completes its own little S-curve. The "Definition of Done" would probably be that it meets the requirements of the interface, like the size, power, etc.

One example he provided was that at SpaceX, the rockets are designed such that the engines are almost entirely independent from the rest of the rocket. This lets them change the number of engines, the size, the design, etc. without interfering with other work occurring in parallel.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,846
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You can have no idea how happy I was to read your post. There is so much about Henry Ford, Harvey Firestone and Thomas Edison together that was definitive for the age. IIRC Henry Ford originally promoted the Model T to be alcohol driven.
Of course his buddy Edison perfected a battery for electric cars that ended out as a means to start car engines, thanks to Thomas Kettering.
River Rouge also produced the Ford Mustang which defined my 1964 self, including music:
It is somehow good that we are using the ideas of the early 20th century to fix the problems caused by those solutions.

Now we wonder if Ford can survive. I hope so. In the meantime TSLA thrives.
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
7,101
100,306
USA
Teslatati - half hour ago: Petition for Tesla vehicle fire investigation rejected by the NHTSA

Excerpts:

...“The available data indicate that noncrash battery fires in Tesla vehicles are rare events. It is unlikely that an order concerning the notification and remedy of a safety-related defect would be issued due to any investigation opened as a result of granting this petition,” the agency noted...

..“NHTSA is authorized to issue an order requiring notification and remedy of a defect if the Agency’s investigation shows a defect in the design, construction, or performance of a motor vehicle that presents an unreasonable risk to safety. Given the absence of any incidents in the United States related to fast charging, and the absence of any such incidents globally since May 2019, it is unlikely that an order concerning the notification and remedy of a safety-related defect would be issued due to any investigation opened as a result of granting this petition. Therefore, upon full consideration of the information presented in the petition, and the potential risks to safety, the petition is denied,” the NHTSA wrote on its ODI resume.
 

dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,817
9,576
Knoxville, Tennessee
I think you're very much in your own head. The handling you mention is an unknown you can't possibly know. The handling might be worse because there's significantly less batteries in the car which means less grounding of the car into turns. It's all subjective.

As for charging right, I can practically guarantee you there will be ZERO difference between a Fremont Y and a Texas Y for at least 1-2 years and even then, likely what will happen is Fremont shuts down for a quarter to get updated with 4680 cells. Tesla is not going to openly sell a different Model Y from Fremont verses Texas. That's a logistics nightmare

They currently sell different packs LFP vs NCA, logistics nightmare or not.

We don't know that there won't be a SR+ Model Y with 2170 and a LR+ Model Y with 4680. Plenty of ways they can split it and still have the differences he is concerned about.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
3,448
31,889
Seattle
What do you guys think was happening with all that volume yesterday? That was buying. It simply didn't move the share price because market makers chose to absorb most of the volume, and they'll need to unwind that short position eventually. Thursday at 1pm seems a very logical time.

Given how blatant they are about naked shorting, I doubt MM's really worry about SEC sniffing around them and thus are just fine with holding their naked short longer than the 3 trading days they're allowed to (which even this is just amazing to think that's legal). Only time they'll get caught with their pants down is an event where every share needs to be accounted for (split, special dividend, etc..)

Unless there's some monumental news on Thurs or a stock split announcement, I doubt they unwind this weeks actions until earnings.
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,643
23,001
USA


  • Mr. Diaz never worked for Tesla. He was a contract employee who worked for Citistaff and nextSource.
  • Mr. Diaz worked as an elevator operator at the Fremont factory for nine months, from June 2015 to March 2016.
  • In addition to Mr. Diaz, three other witnesses (all non-Tesla contract employees) testified at trial that they regularly heard racial slurs (including the n-word) on the Fremont factory floor. While they all agreed that the use of the n-word was not appropriate in the workplace, they also agreed that most of the time they thought the language was used in a “friendly” manner and usually by African-American colleagues. They also told the jury about racist graffiti in the bathrooms, which was removed by our janitorial staff;
  • There was no witness testimony or other evidence that anyone ever heard the n-word used toward Mr. Diaz.
  • Mr. Diaz made written complaints to his non-Tesla supervisors. Those were well-documented in the nine months he worked at our factory. But he didn’t make any complaints about the n-word until after he was not hired full-time by Tesla – and after he hired an attorney.
  • The three times that Mr. Diaz did complain about harassment, Tesla stepped in and made sure responsive and timely action was taken by the staffing agencies: two contractors were fired and one was suspended (who had drawn a racially offensive cartoon). Mr. Diaz himself testified that he was “very satisfied” with the results of one of the investigations, and he agreed that there was follow-up on each of his complaints.
  • Even though Mr. Diaz now complains about racial harassment at Fremont, at the time he said he was being harassed, he recommended to his son and daughter – while they were all living together in the same home – that they work at Tesla with him.

Recommending his son and daughter to work for Tesla to triple the lawsuit potential?

Where does Tesla go from here for appeals or getting this trash thrown out?

The jury must have all been selected from San Francisco Teamsters Local 85.

This would have been laughed out of court in Texas. Everyone knows the n-word isn't actually the n-word unless you end with a hard 'R'.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
3,448
31,889
Seattle
They currently sell different packs LFP vs NCA, logistics nightmare or not.

We don't know that there won't be a SR+ Model Y with 2170 and a LR+ Model Y with 4680. Plenty of ways they can split it and still have the differences he is concerned about.

I very much disagree with that. Using different packs/batteries within the same factory is nothing compared to the logistics of having two different factories in the different geographical locations making vehicles with two different packs/battery types. Think of the shipping logistics. You're losing a ton of logistic efficiency because both factories have to ship their cars all over the US instead of Fremont servicing west half of North America and exports and Texas servicing Middle/East half of North America.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,490
32,504

93 years ago this video is a match for your description, except for the contributions of capital to make it happen.

Of particular interest is the multipart cores at 5 minutes. Super complicated hollow cast structures. Hollow shapes have structural benefits.

Somehow trying to put this in a Gigapress :) Seems like the cycle time hit would be too much.

Might be able to make the motor housing part of the casting for the Model 2?
I’m delighted you showed this to the TMC members. You are off by a decade - it is 1937/8, not ‘27/8 - although that matters little.
At the 11:00 +/- mark, harken to something you’ve heard before: “making the machines that make the machines.” That was my favorite part of the film. Gus was, naturally enough, in awe of the rivers of molten metal.
Narrator Lowell Thomas: I knew his son L.T. Jr - Alaska’s first Lt Governor; and went to school with two of his kids, Annie & Dave - we were all on the ski team together.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,762
33,383
Philadelphia, PA
Market makers don't like carrying positions overnight. That kind of a thing will usually gets the "rogue" employee fired.

It seems to me there was a lot of speculative buying who took profit quickly after P&D or call holders closing their positions.

When I say whales - I'm talking about long term holders. Upgrades also result in more long term holders, pushing the price up.
We've seen obvious MM shorting on a Friday carry over to a Mon/Tues unwind literally dozens of times in the last couple years. They're allowed to do it, and it's profitable to do it, so I assume they're doing it.
 

DarkandStormy

Member
Apr 16, 2021
266
590
Colorado
  • In addition to Mr. Diaz, three other witnesses (all non-Tesla contract employees) testified at trial that they regularly heard racial slurs (including the n-word) on the Fremont factory floor. While they all agreed that the use of the n-word was not appropriate in the workplace, they also agreed that most of the time they thought the language was used in a “friendly” manner and usually by African-American colleagues. They also told the jury about racist graffiti in the bathrooms, which was removed by our janitorial staff;
  • There was no witness testimony or other evidence that anyone ever heard the n-word used toward Mr. Diaz.

That's walking a fine line.

The statement is very oddly worded and basically a tacit admission of guilt. I'm sure it'll get appealed and the actual fine paid might be 1-2% of the $137m.
 
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Boomer19

Active Member
Jun 10, 2018
2,384
10,690
US
We've seen obvious MM shorting on a Friday carry over to a Mon/Tues unwind literally dozens of times in the last couple years. They're allowed to do it, and it's profitable to do it, so I assume they're doing it.

just like in manufacturing, humans are underrated. the algos can’t to it all themselves. humans have to jump in and right the ship sometimes, but often after the algos ‘oversteer/understeer’ - of course this is in terms of pure market making, not trading, or ‘gaming’ the system.
 
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jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,846
34,122
Other Italian friends did buy a 500e and were not pleased. I only suggest Hyunday Kona (as a long range car) and Renault Zoe (as a urban, main-but-not-for-long-trips car).
A 500e does 180 watt per km in summer, while a Kona does 125 Watt on average all year long. My Zoe is around 122.
This speaks volume about the battery technology.
Unfortunately Marchionne did botch the electric strategy at FIAT/FCA, they are years behind.
Between Hyundai and Fiat, I choose Fiat. OK, full disclosure:
I have owned and loved ten Italian cars, more or less, from Fiat, Lancia, Alfa Romeo, Maserati and Ferrari.
Emotionally they've been my favorites. One or two of them actually worked consistently.
Thus, my view of the 500e is how well performs in it's intended urban environment. There it works perfectly, at least in the Brazilian versions. It is not very efficient, but really does not need to be when a long trip might be 60km. Otherwise they are truly awful if one compares them to a Tesla, any Tesla.
Lastly price. My reference is costs in Brazil. 500e is the cheapest BEV here except for the lowest end of the JAC line (I suspect many TMC readers have never heard of JAC). The bottom Renault Zoe is the same price as the well-equipped 500e. The cheap Zoe does not even have a navigation system, nor does the bottom of the Hyundai line.

All of this is irrelevant to Tesla except in one respect. Once the China design emerges, all of these lower end BEV's will be ridiculously poor choices. Wherever they will be available they'll almost certainly dominate.
Thus, it is amusing for us to debate the merits of soon-to-be obsolete choices.

Of course I do believe some of those competitors will end out with compelling products.
 
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