mekberg
Member
Yes. And the website went down when online orders were opened. I know because I was sitting at a brew pub with 5 other friends all trying to get a Model 3 reservation.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yes. And the website went down when online orders were opened. I know because I was sitting at a brew pub with 5 other friends all trying to get a Model 3 reservation.
I'm seeing exactly what I want to see from Tesla: massive year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth and rapidly dropping production costs, enabling the company to move into price brackets representing ever-larger markets. Seeing what I want to see from Tesla is why I'm a bull.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Reservations not the same as pre-orders. Very different screens, if you noticed.
<Not an Advice>
I'd not buy puts now - when the SP is obviously at lower end of the range. Not that a few dollars down from here is unexpected … but if you think of the range as 250 to 390, (or even 260 to 320), we are at lower end of the range.
</Not an Advice>
You and others linked to former SEC lawyer Thomas Gorman's opinion that Elon's $420 tweets were fine and the SEC should not have sued Elon and Tesla, and also note this recent information that two out of the five SEC commissioners voted against the settlement:
Two SEC officers objected to how Musk tweets reviewed - Optimal Money
"Two Republican officers of the Securities and Change Fee objected to a part of the safety regulator’s settlement with Tesla final 12 months that required it to nominate a lawyer to overview Elon Musk’s tweets."
"SEC commissioners Hester Peirce and Elad Roisman disagreed with the requirement that the electrical carmaker discover an “skilled” lawyer to overview tweets by senior executives and to advise the corporate on how one can obey federal securities legal guidelines."
But @azaz is right in so far that I'm ueber-bullish about Tesla and my opinion is obviously biased by that fundamental sentiment, and I'm also not a lawyer.
So take everything I write with a healthy grain of salt: for example I was 90% certain that Elon would take Tesla private, and I was also 95% certain that Tesla would become part of the S&P 500 after a profitable Q1.
I love FCs analysis and arguments but I think his expected result is highly unlikely. I think EM should prevail. However there will be no sanctions penalty or damages against the SEC or its lawyers. The worst that will happen to them is they will lose. If the Court is greatly upset by their position or misleading quote etc, there may be some language from the Judge reflecting her displeasure. I don't like it any more than you but there will be no pound of flesh recovered from the government. My greatest hope is a reasonable interpretation of the consent decree from the Judge, a finding that EM did not violate the consent decree and a critique of the SEC for bringing this as a waste of everyone's time and money.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I have not torn apart my MR to investigate the battery pack, but Tesla said they were doing it with fewer cells (blanks, or some term like that was used to describe the non-cell fill).
At the time there was, of course, plenty of speculation as to whether or not it was really software limited. I don't feel like dragging through the old thread to find it, but the conclusion was that it would eliminate too much of the margin. In fact, Tesla knocked the price up by $1k shortly after they announced the MR -- I bought the highest priced MR since they dropped the price in 2019
Not only that, but the MR has a different onboard charger that has a lower limit -- presumably due to the pack having fewer cells to distribute the charge over.
While I really like the idea of a software limited pack (that Tesla might allow me to unlock the full potential of, thus increasing my range by 60 miles and improving 0-60 time by 0.2 seconds) -- I just don't see it. It would have cost them margin when they needed it and the onboard charger change is consistent with an actual reduced size.
[edited to complete the last sentence]
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hacer
Active Member
I did that (just about: bought at $252 but sold Dec 15th $360 strike calls that got exercised)! It felt great, and I well more than recovered from the 420 debacle. Since then I paid taxes on all the gains too. Sadly I also bought DITM (June '19) calls in December and sadly, used about double leverage from my previous (stock) position. So far it's not pretty but I can afford the losses although I'd rather have gains.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
When Rosner asked about the 350-500k, Musk said:
"Well, we need to bring the Shanghai factory online. I think that's the biggest driver for getting to 500K plus a year."
How does that "confirm" 500k production in 2019? Shanghai is an early stage construction site. Even by Tesla's optimistic guidance, total 2019 production there won't exceed 10-20k.
What you call a "double standard" is a difference in treatment between official written statements and back-and-forth with analysts during conference call Q&A. The death cult goes bananas when Musk says stuff like 100-200k Model 3s in 2H17, and keeps quoting him years later. Real market participants realize such spur-of-the-moment numbers are not reliable and do not represent guidance.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Don't be sorry, be true to yourself. If you think Elon is steering $TSLA into the bankwuptcy then the right thing to do is short short short
Also not to mention the 500k was explained in the report that it's a run rate possible in 2019. So when Elon said his tweet, I actually assumed he means Tesla having the capability of making about 500k cars sometime in 2019. He later clarified that he meant exactly what I thought he said because I didn't see his tweet as anything new, but just rehashing some of the things said in the earnings report. Also if deliveries are 400k, I would assume production is higher than deliveries considering the ramp so "about 500k" is not a far fetch, especially from a self congratulating progress showing kind of tweet. It's always somewhat exaggerated with best case scenario baked in because in 2011 Tesla didn't exactly made zero cars either.
Some of the news outlet of course thought he meant deliveries or whatever.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Canadian federal 2019 Budget just came out. There's a $5000 federal EV incentive for EV under 45k. Model 3 SR currently sits at 46k. So if Tesla can somehow cut enough cost by about 1000 in the future, sales should pop more. Combined with the $5000 incentive already in BC that is $10000, Vancouver should be a hotbed for Tesla M3 SR.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't be surprised if Elon's team to filed a cross-motion or a motion for declaratory relief the moment they think the judge agrees that the SEC has no case. This might be within or outside of the contempt of court motions, but I don't think it stops with the SEC losing.
Elon's team established damages, restraint on speech and chilling effects on speech.
But yeah, first things first, Elon might also lose this motion...
I've been following Tesla a long time. I recall when they weren't supposed to last more than a couple of months. I recall when they were never going to make the Model S because it wasn't possible to make that kind of a car. I recall when they were never going to get funding for the first Gigafactory. After a while, the doomsayers have become just so much noise.
Doesn't this say we need the shanghai factory online to manufacture above 500k a year?
Do you really expect Tesla to drop the price by $1,000 on their lowest cost/lowest margin vehicle to make it eligible for the incentive? (It was a whole different issue to drop the price by a $1 to make it eligible in other jurisdictions.)
Don't you think the price was set there specifically to exclude Tesla?
Is that under $45k limit for the base price of the car, or the actual sales price of the car including options?
I think they might file a request to be relieved from the CD due to the SEC's bad faith in its negotiation and the mutual failure to agree on its terms. This would be an interesting tactics once the SEC suffered an initial defeat. Just an.idea
hacer
Active Member
If they simply lose with no penalty then I expect that they will immediately file a new contempt charge based on some other tweet that they chose more carefully to make sure its materiality is a tougher call. Do you think they would do this, and (whether or not you think they will), would the judge just go along with another show-cause order?
mekberg
Member
Model 3s. This isn't counting S/X.
Krugerrand
Meow
What did you order last night? And what time was it in CA for when yoy did it?
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