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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I like Schwab's low ratings for Tesla. I've been a Schwab brokerage client since 1997 and the low ratings bring up a lot of fond memories of stocks I made huge profits on. All my most profitable stocks had really low Schwab Equity Ratings.

Here is a screenshot of how all the rated stocks performed in 2020 grouped by their overall Schwab Equity Rating:

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Of course the results vary depending upon the time period charted but I think you can see why I get a good feeling when I see a stock I hold (or one I want to buy) is poorly rated. I mostly ignore this rating but I would appreciate a heads up if anyone notices Tesla suddenly becomes highly rated. It might be time to sell. ;)
I look at the Schwab Equity Rating as more like "What are the chances you will lose 100% of what you invest?" You're unlikely to lose your shirt on Proctor & Gamble or Nestle, for instance. So those rate an A. Tesla nearly went bankrupt at least 3 times that we know of. So in that regard, sure it deserves the F it long had, although today it has a D. Now if your personal equity rating is based on "What are the chances you will retire to your yacht in the Caribbean?" then yeah I wouldn't really use Schwab Equity Rating for that kind of rating.
 
Gene Munster with bullish comments (and still underestimates TLSA):


I like Gene but I have to question how well he understands Tesla when he attributed the lower than expected sales in China to the possibility that Tesla prices were too high for that market (when I think it's pretty obvious that Tesla exported cars from China to Europe and other markets so Fremont cars could (try to) fill demand in North America and to prevent Europe from being left out altogether). There simply were not enough cars to fill all of China demand. That will improve greatly when GigaGermany and GigaTexas ramp production into next year.
 
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Geez, is Mama Cathie selling all 63,135 shares as a single sell wall limit or strategic shorting every green candle to cap us. :p

Only fund that sold TSLA is ARKK, presumably to fund that 6.7 million share purchase of DNA.

ARKG did sell its own holdings (does not contain TSLA) to also buy more DNA.

Hope she knows what she is doing here.
2 reasons for selling.

1. Tesla's stock price is too high hitting higher than 10% weight

2. Her other picks keep sucking which results in Tesla weight increasing even if stock price being flat

Arbitrary rules designed to make your fund suck
 
BMW will absolutely be the first German company to fall. None of the other German companies overlap that perfectly with Tesla's target market more closely than BMW does. The Venn Diagram of potential Tesla owners versus potential BMW owners is basically a circle.
I disagree, there are aesthetic masochists who like the ugly beaver grill and coolant passages in their alternators. I do like their red color, though, that is the only thing.
 
How feasible is to build a GF in the Orlando area? Does a GF Florida makes sense?
Probably not enough housing/talent in Orlando

Tho a gigafactory in FL is probably a good idea since it's ranked #2 most EVs sold in the U.S and #3 in population behind Texas and California. Orlando also has 75 million visitors a year which means it's probably ranked highest for robotaxi shuttle from the airport to the Disney resorts. Lots of opportunities here for sure.
 
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GM's revenue, at ~$120b is roughly the same at it was in 1991


Nevermind the 30 years of inflation....

Also, if you add up the last 30 years of profits and losses for GM, it essentially adds up to nothing.


In the last 6 years General Motors has exited*

Europe
Russia
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
South and East Africa markets

Now they are in the process of exiting Australia and New Zealand

Is GM going to engineer RHD vehicles specially for the ~10k cars sell in Japan every year?

Mary Barra's reasoning is that these markets are a money pit not a source of profit. Revenue is down but profit is up. So the cost savings will be redirected for electric and autonomous vehicles. GM is now a Sino-American company.

* In a few exited markets they continue to sell boutique volume of Corvettes, Camaros and Cadillacs
 
Earnings will be super-strong, even using ridiculously conservative models.

IMHO, I would not be surprised for Tesla to defer any of this possible extra income until next year when Austin and Berlin are ramping.
One way to achieve this is to un-do the delivery wave to some extent in Q4.
If we see cars getting loaded onto ships in mid December, then we know revenue will be recognized in Q1 2021.
Doing this to offset lower margins in Berlin/Austin may be a working strategy.

There will be significant savings once the wave is greatly reduced. Having the majority of vehicles delivered in the 3rd month of the quarter causes inefficient labor costs. In Lean Manufacturing, Level-Loading (known as Heijunka) allows for the most efficient use of resources.
 
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I'd rather Tesla not build a Gigafactory that's going to be under water in 20 years.....or blown away by a super hurricane
Nobody complained about Shanghai. There are so many environmental catastrophes from fires, droughts, floods and a variety of storms that there are serious deficiencies everywhere for everything.

At least Tesla factories help reduce the headlong rush to destruction.

Still I think the new Tesla factories will go near the potential markets with large pools of suppliers, engineers and workers.
 
Probably not enough housing/talent in Orlando

Tho a gigafactory in FL is probably a good idea since it's ranked #2 most EVs sold in the U.S and #3 in population behind Texas and California. Orlando also has 75 million visitors a year which means it's probably ranked highest for robotaxi shuttle from the airport to the Disney resorts. Lots of opportunities here for sure.
Lots of reasons the only major industries seem like agriculture and health care, plus all manner if services to Latin America. I cannot imagine that happening.

Low taxes and high demand might suggest a large solar products support base will happen and similar projects for vehicles. While all those Superchargers are being deployed the need much more service and sales facilities.

Thinking back to my 2014 P85D there has been gigantic buildout since then, but they need at least doubling within the next year. Just think of all the MFD and residential projects alone.

Factories go elsewhere.
 
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At least Tesla factories help reduce the headlong rush to destruction.
I don't share your confidence. To me it feels like we are in the bottom of a giant hole we've dug and Musk is passing out smaller shovels as water is pouring in from the bottom.

At least we're digging slower right?

There is such a huge environmental cost to building big cars.
 
BMW will absolutely be the first German company to fall. None of the other German companies overlap that perfectly with Tesla's target market more closely than BMW does. The Venn Diagram of potential Tesla owners versus potential BMW owners is basically a circle.
So there’s a NEW Ultimate Driving Machine in Town;)
 
How feasible is to build a GF in the Orlando area? Does a GF Florida makes sense?

I’m not sure all the retirees in Florida make a workforce! I’d like to see Kentucky or Tennessee or maybe Ohio… I know Elon once mentioned the northeast but the northeast is already in Tesla’s pocket. I’d rather assimilate the South or Midwest. The South at least has skilled non-union workers (from many foreign car factories) who haven’t yet seen the EV light.
 
Can humanity stop producing cars?
Will it?
No?
Nobody is giving up cars.

Extending my bad analogy, people aren't going to stop digging so smaller shovels are about as good as you can expect.

My point here isn't that Tesla is doing the wrong thing. I don't think Musk or Tesla could be doing anything better than what they are doing.

It's that it feels like too little, too late in the game. I hope I'm wrong.
 
Nobody is giving up cars.

Extending my bad analogy, people aren't going to stop digging so smaller shovels are about as good as you can expect.

My point here isn't that Tesla is doing the wrong thing. I don't think Musk or Tesla could be doing anything better than what they are doing.

It's that it feels like too little, too late in the game. I hope I'm wrong.

Starting late is often better than not starting at all. At least we (the world) are finally taking steps in the proper direction.