Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[powertoold]

Tesla network will generate stupid low revenue. Waymo is already experiencing this in Phoenix in which each of their robotaxi is only generating 2 rides per WEEK. It's ahead of it's time and people are not yet ready to fully trust a computer driving them around.

Nah, it's more likely that Waymo is experiencing low ridership b/c it doesn't drive like an Uber. Waymo avoids many roads and routes, no highways, very limited, no urban areas. It doesn't even go into downtown areas, where people actually want to be.

 

[Accident]

A robo taxi isnt going to to be too worried about spending an hour or two a day charging? It'll need some downtime for cleaning etc anyhow.

We’ll need a Tesla bot “driving” each robotaxi:

• The bot can enter the code for gated communities and apartments. I’m not walking to the gate.
• They can clean and inspect the car before a new passenger gets in the car.
• Can help with luggage.
• The bot can close a door if a passenger forgets to close it.
• If a camera gets dirty, the bot can wipe it down.
• No need to retrofit superchargers with snake robots.
• You can chit chat with the bot for an additional fee.

 

[Skryll]

99 vs 100 you'll get it what, a week, maybe two weeks later? Even if it's three weeks or four weeks it's coming you'll get it on the car you already own before I get a new tesla and have a chance to get it.

It’s 88

I had a perfect 100 for a week, until Friday. Then on Saturday morning I went to the autocross and it dropped me to 93. Then I drove safe more miles on the freeway and residential, hoping to bring back up the score. And that, despite having 0/0/0/0 on those, dropped me further each time I did it, until I gave up. It is 88 now. Maybe adding miles to the same day with additional trips just gave more weight to the bad score from the one autocross event. No idea.

My only hope would be a 'teacher drops the worst grade' kind of rule that counts all my more than 7 perfect 100 days...

 

[Ogre]

We’ll need a Tesla bot “driving” each robotaxi:

• The bot can enter the code for gated communities and apartments. I’m not walking to the gate.
• They can clean and inspect the car before a new passenger gets in the car.
• Can help with luggage.
• The bot can close a door if a passenger forgets to close it.
• If a camera gets dirty, the bot can wipe it down.
• No need to retrofit superchargers with snake robots.
• You can chit chat with the bot for an additional fee.

Not sure a Tesla bot is the solution to these problems, but they are legitimate issues which face any Robotaxi type software which just uses FSD. The last people solve themselves with the smartphone.

 

[FlamingPIG]

Robotaxi is overrated today. Even if Tesla solves FSD tomorrow, the Tesla network will generate stupid low revenue. Waymo is already experiencing this in Phoenix in which each of their robotaxi is only generating 2 rides per WEEK. It's ahead of it's time and people are not yet ready to fully trust a computer driving them around. This can only happen if you get people's butt in seats, and have them experience complex scenarios without interventions for months or years before one can fully trust the system(or else you'll just think Waymo's 5 million intervention free miles came from a straight line and the minute you sit in the car it's going to hit an edge case and kill you). This is seriously how humans think about the unknown. You can tell because those who haven't experienced AP think it's dangerous and those who have can't live without it after they get used to it.

So the crazy twist is if enough people have experienced Tesla's FSD (because they have it) and went through intervention free miles for a year or two, these people will ONLY want to trust a Tesla's robotaxi and not look at the competitor's. When you are putting your life on the line, you go with the safest option..the one you are familiar with the most. So I really don't know how these other companies can generate enough income from robotaxies without that human trust connection and just need to take their words for it. They really need to ditch all those sensors and make cars cheap enough so people can grow along with autonomy to build that trust when the car is affordable to own.

It seems that you did a bit of homework on Waymo. Mind sharing where you get the 5 million intervention free and only 2 ride a week per robotaxis?

 

[S3XY]

Not saying that might have been my agenda, but that might have been my agenda.

Actually, it was a very clever way of making him play dead.

 

[Singuy]

It seems that you did a bit of homework on Waymo. Mind sharing where you get the 5 million intervention free and only 2 ride a week per robotaxis?

This article talks about Waymo in Arizona only getting a few hundred rides per week. However there are 600 waymos in Phoenix so a few hundred rides per week is a few rides per car per week.

In a patch of Arizona, everyone knows Waymo. But few use it.

The Alphabet subsidiary rolled out a fully driverless robotaxi service in late 2020, but it has yet to catch on among locals

www.morningbrew.com

As for 5 million intervention free miles, that was a made up number as to drive home the point of how human thinks..as in no matter what number it is humans tend to downplay it because there's risk involved. Their actual number is around 30k miles per disengagement.

 

[NicoV]

As an EU Cybertruck reservation holder, I’m a bit concerned about this weekends answers from Elon about when Cybertruck would arrive in Europe. He answered it was big, and that they may make a smaller one for EU. Or that they would otherwise try to find a way to comply with EU regulations. He was probably referring to some comments that have been made (here) about the general design of the Cybertruck not being compatible with EU safety regulations (too dangerous for the other people on the road in case of an accident).
Still, Tesla has no problem taking reservations for the Cybertruck in the EU.
I don’t mind it’s big, I just want to use it as a camper.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1447457928500310018

 

[FS_FRA]

Can we please keep all postings about your safety score and FSD beta off this thread. Let’s not clutter this thread even more.

Thanks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m a bit concerned about this weekends answers from Elon about when Cybertruck would arrive in Europe

That's scarcely this weekend's answer from Elon on Cybertruck. He has been saying exactly that for more than a year. How did you miss this if you're an interested CT reservation holder?

This is LITERALLY the first result when I Google the exact statement you just made:

Tesla is 'highly likely' to make smaller Cybertruck for Europe ...​

https://electrek.co › 2020/08/04 › tesla-smaller-cybertru...

Aug. 4, 2020 — I could see the ID.3 taking the Model 3's title as the best-selling BEV in Europe in 2021. I hope that will wake up Elon Musk and make him ...

 

[NicoV]

That's scarcely this weekend's answer from Elon on Cybertruck. He has been saying exactly that for more than a year. How did you miss this if you're an interested CT reservation holder?

This is LITERALLY the first result when I Google the exact statement you just made:

Tesla is 'highly likely' to make smaller Cybertruck for Europe ...​

https://electrek.co › 2020/08/04 › tesla-smaller-cybertru...

Aug. 4, 2020 — I could see the ID.3 taking the Model 3's title as the best-selling BEV in Europe in 2021. I hope that will wake up Elon Musk and make him ...

I know that.
But they never said that the current Cybertruck wouldn’t come to europe, and now Elon is implying that, while still taking orders.

 

[Cult Member]

As an EU Cybertruck reservation holder, I’m a bit concerned about this weekends answers from Elon about when Cybertruck would arrive in Europe. He answered it was big, and that they may make a smaller one for EU. Or that they would otherwise try to find a way to comply with EU regulations. He was probably referring to some comments that have been made (here) about the general design of the Cybertruck not being compatible with EU safety regulations (too dangerous for the other people on the road in case of an accident).
Still, Tesla has no problem taking reservations for the Cybertruck in the EU.
I don’t mind it’s big, I just want to use it as a camper.

No yoke - even the Model Y had to be shringed for EU.

 

[MC3OZ]

As an EU Cybertruck reservation holder, I’m a bit concerned about this weekends answers from Elon about when Cybertruck would arrive in Europe. He answered it was big, and that they may make a smaller one for EU. Or that they would otherwise try to find a way to comply with EU regulations. He was probably referring to some comments that have been made (here) about the general design of the Cybertruck not being compatible with EU safety regulations (too dangerous for the other people on the road in case of an accident).
Still, Tesla has no problem taking reservations for the Cybertruck in the EU.
I don’t mind it’s big, I just want to use it as a camper.

I can remember overtaking large camper vans in Europe, which seemed to travel in fleets....

They were definitely bigger than an Cybertruck more like a van the size of a caravan, another example is a Mercedes Sprinter which is large van, but not as large as those campervans.

So it seems to me there are recreational / business vehicles on EU roads, just as big, or bigger than Cybertruck..

 

[Artful Dodger]

I know that.
But they never said that the current Cybertruck wouldn’t come to europe, and now Elon is implying that, while still taking orders.

That's the way Tesla rolls. CT has always targeted the pickup truck market in the U.S. There's no guarantee Tesla will export them to other markets.

Tesla is still selling FSD in Europe too, even though its been neutered by EUROzone regulations. People know that in advance. Same as putting down a $100 deposit on CT. It's like a refundable lotto ticket.

From Aug 4, 2020:

Lukas on Twitter: "@elonmusk @cleantechnica Smaller version for Europe? Don't want Model Y. I want a Cyber Truck. Even just a smaller EU version." / Twitter​

​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@Lindw0rm @cleantechnica Highly likely down the road" / Twitter​

​

 

[22522]

People have different investing models that require different levels of detailed analysis. I use the copy method and the pattern match method and the children are our future method.

In times of inflation, where are you going to put your money? Cathie says innovation can outpace inflation. Tesla has the most demonstrated, well posed end-to-end innovation capabilities. Tesla is better than gold.

Peter Lynch says invest in companies that you have positive first hand experience with. Wall Street looks backwards. Your first hand experience gives you a first mover advantage. Good person to copy. You run up the staircase facing forward. They run up the staircase facing backwards.

Porter has written at least 3 useful books: Competition, Competitive Advantage and Competitive Advantage of Nations. Somewhere he talks about value chain length. Tesla pattern matches with success in all three.

“What do kids say?”
I put a lot of money into fixing up a Giant STP mountain bike while selling a Trek Bruiser to a work friend. We ride past a group of teenagers out on the trail, he gets “Nice Bike” compliments. I get silence.

Tesla understands engineering, but they don’t let it get in the way of cool. This is a rare skill that I do not have.

Note: on the battery connections, did they break the column strength of the bus bars to minimize temperature cycling stress on the weld? Wires do this automatically. I did not see/notice the bus bars in full length…

 

[NicoV]

I can remember overtaking large camper vans in Europe, which seemed to travel in fleets....

They were definitely bigger than an Cybertruck more like a van the size of a caravan, another example is a Mercedes Sprinter which is large van, but not as large as those campervans.

So it seems to me there are recreational / business vehicles on EU roads, just as big, or bigger than Cybertruck..

Yes, my neighbour’s camper is definitely a lot bigger than the cybertruck.

In Europe, the size of the cybertruck is not an objection for selling it here, as there are lot’s of big vehicles on our roads. It’s just not convenient to use such a vehicle as a daily driver in small city streets, but I doubt many Europeans would buy the Cybertruck for that purpose.
I’m one of the many thousands of people who’d like to have an electric vehicle for camping purposes (see e.g. the success of the Cyberlandr), and so far the Cybertruck is my only option. Altough a real EV camper would be better (semi based?), and some day Tesla will make one. But probably not in the next 5 years.
#nodemand

 

[lascavarian]

A score of 100 over 100 miles makes sense. The addition of a mileage parameter fleshes out the metric in a sensible manner. Some feelings may take a hit.

Premarket seems a little wobbly.

If only someone would try Lombard street with 10.2

 

[Nolimits]

I admit that I only got into TSLA after the announcement that it wouldn't be added to the SP500. That was an obvious sign for me to get in before the inclusion.
I didn't seriously look into the company until it started hitting the $695 price point on that Friday the funds started buying.

I have a pretty open mind and looked into a lot of bull arguments from Frank Peelan and youtubers. Right now, the only thing keeping me in TSLA is this unexplainable hunch that it will go much higher than anyone expects. I can't justify the valuation without FSD and robotaxis.

Again, before you keep posting about not understanding the valuation, you need to read this thread carefully or read the posts of particular merit and/or follow papafox daily blogs. There may be a reason we are all so bullish and think tsla is worth a lot more than what it is today. If anything, I think it’s totally undervalued. You are missing the big picture or something about the company. Potential for this company is huge. It’s not just about fsd.

Think about Apple or Amazon a decade ago. If you told then investors what it would be worth now, they would say it’s ridiculous.

 

[Todd Burch]

A number of people are now reporting receiving FSD Beta 10.2. A few new FSD testers have completed short drives.

The new users are reporting it’s surprisingly aggressive and nerve-racking (of course).

Going to be an interesting few days…