Hey, guys. I'm new here.
I bought TSLA pre-SP500 inclusion at average price of under $400. I sold at $880ish and then rebought at $600.
With the marketcap approaching close to $1 trillion, I'm starting to wonder if all of the growth from the automotive side has been priced in already and if I'm better off investing in something else. Yes, I'm well aware of the potential of robotaxis, but I'm a FSD-bear and don't think it's ever happening.
If we're valuing Tesla solely as a car company and assuming they can manufacture 20 million cars annually, would their current valuation be justified? I'd imagine most of the cars sold then would be a cheaper $25K model with lower margins, so my initial instinct is no.
I have to admit that getting called a moron by friends and people online for investing in TSLA has been making me second-guess my investment choice. Hoping that some of you can bring a different opinion on the matter.
There was an interesting post from another member here when TSLA reached its peak and we were all getting called dumbasses by our friends and families for not selling.
“
Tech EV bubble
I get the sentiment. I even agree with it in regards to certain companies and perhaps the EV and related space. Seeing companies with no product in market and 0 to virtually 0 revenue (NKLA, QS) commanding multi-billion dollar valuations is astronomically absurd.
However, those are the exception rather than the rule. The numbers just don't point to another dot-com bust. Here's a nice thorough write-up penned in Sept on why.
No, This Isn't a Repeat of the Dot-Com Bubble – Of Dollars And Data
Here are some key takeaways from the article:
Note: I've also adjusted some of the numbers to show where we are now vs when this was written in Sept as well as added a few tidbits not in the article
1. Nasdaq 5-year performance:
95 - 2000: +456%
2015-Current: +156%
2. Sampling of biggest individual performers:
95-2000 (avg 11x - 40x)
Intel: +998%
Cisco: +3,910%
Oracle: +1,220%
Microsoft: +1,600%
2015-2020 (avg 2.5x - 6x)
Apple: +401%
Amazon: +375%
Netflix: +361%
Facebook: +155%
Zoom: +559%
TSLA: +1,234% <---- Noteable exception I address at the end of the post
3. P/E Ratios are still below the dot-com average: 44 vs 29-30ish
4. Yields (TINA - there is no other alternative)
Current average earnings yields (E/P) are:
Now: ~3-3.3% (1/29.5)
Dot-com: ~2.2% (1/44)
Meaning, investors expect about a 3-3.5% return for every dollar they put in a stock now vs 2% during the dot-com bust.
That doesn't seem like a big difference, but when compared against a MUCH safer investment, the 10 year treasury, there's a huge difference.
10-year US bonds:
Now: <1%
Dot-com: ~6%
In the dot-com bust, you were taking a risk on companies barely earning anything for a meager 2.2% yield versus a 6% virtually guaranteed return in bonds! Now, you're lucky to get 1% on bonds versus 3% or better in stocks. Needless to say, it's not crazy to hear folks saying Amazon and Apple are better than bonds for storing your dollars.
To sum it up
Yes, TSLA is absolutely a performance outlier. However, unlike in the dot-com bust, investors are being forced to stick their dollars somewhere and mega-cap tech in the world's largest TAMs (total addressable market) is one of the best places to do that.
TSLA is:
- credibly competing in the two largest TAMs and arguably leading technology driven disruption in both
- TSLA's technology and business model has already proven economical -- an important distinction when comparing against dot-com businesses that were not economical
- led by a truly once in a generation level leader in his prime with decades of experience
- incredibly resilient having survived two MASSIVE economic disasters, one of which was the largest seen since the great depression and early in TSLA's existence
I don't have a crystal ball, but I can tell you that this valuation isn't irrationally exuberant by any means”
It’s from 9 months ago.
If you want the complete Tesla valuation, go read Frank’s investment thesis on Tesla, you will be as Strong as you could ever be in face of adversity or in the face of someone trying to influence you to sell.
