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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
11,066
8,882
Maine

Tesla surpasses BMW 3 Series, Audi A4 and Mercedes C-Class for the first time​


English translation:
That triggered ad-blocking in Brave for me. But I can view the original German article:
 
That's a good summary, sort of magnifies my concerns re ARK. I have read the ARK thesis on Tesla everytime it is updated and I still don't think they get it right. I'm a huge fan of Tesla mission and I think that Tesla is uniquely poised to be the most valuable company in the history of earth. All that said, MB is no idiot and I've never known him to be flat footed wrong. So, he's having concerns and that's worth noting even if the thesis of Tesla does not change.
The counter argument to MB to me is:

FSD compliments EVs that are designed around a centralized computer. Tesla is the only company that seems to have a chance to deliver on both. Once that is done robotaxis become not just a talking point but a product. Once that is done there won't be nearly as much global demand for vehicles, maybe 1/2? Maybe less. So by then Tesla may effectively pull off on of the greatest feats in all modern economic history by killing vehicle manufacturing and turning it from a capital goods to software. The capital goods portion counting for less and less and the software systems controlling everything. In a coup de grace Tesla will be able to utilize huge amounts of stranded EV battery capacity for energy capture having a fleet of production capabilities and the software that virtualizes power plants from various points of power distribution and storage. I think all this happens around 2030 and the disruption will be epic. It could effectively bankrupt much of corporate Japan and some of Germany. China seems to be playing a good hand. In the US I see only Ford moving intelligently but oh so slowly. VW makes lots of noise but they have social/political issues in shuttering a hundred factories. They have no silicon experience, they have outsourced software to the worst place in the world. They needed to have built 10x the battery capacity 3 years ago..they have issues on issues but shuttering 100 factories is probably the largest. GM- far too little too late and all talk too little build and what they build is so stupid- pouch batteries. So stupid. They seriously planned to offer competitive cars with pouch format batteries. Any casual critical observer should have said WTF? Wall St is clueless.

So to me the TSLA argument is very high level and forward looking - 8 years out I expect Tesla to be the cause of bankruptcies. Tesla and only Tesla is combining AI and manufacturing. Tesla and only Tesla is preparing for a world with significantly fewer auto's and lots of stranded battery capacity. Not sure what's that worth and if I'm an investor I would not really care. It will be worth billion and billions in profits. It could dwarf anything known. But then I'm a forester, trees take decades to grow. I'm comfortable and if I were to be growing a tesla I'd be looking at decades.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
4,819
40,144
US
I think of ARK like a venture capital fund. Venture capitalists will invest in 20 (usually more) things they have reason to believe might explode. If one does well, they're good. If 2 or 3 do well, you're golden. 17 will crash and burn. That's ok, because the 2 or 3 more than make up for it. I don't expect Cathie to be right every time. I hope she's right on 2 or 3 companies.
I think someone should do a case study on Tsla and the disturbance it has caused that rippled through the entire market. There has never been such a high profile company that increased so much and so fast in its marketcap in the history of Wall Street. This single phenomenon has made people's careers(check youtube subs), made analysts into clowns, gave fraudulent companies credibility, and drove the entire market to ATH and then crashed it too because of all the nonsensical search for the next Tesla.

Many companies x10 every year. But those are hidden microcap companies no one heard about so therefore it caused zero drama in the market.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,504
32,658
Regarding emplacing the seats atop the battery pack as shown :

can it likewise not also be so fundamentally easier/quicker/more efficient to pre-attach the entire dashboard, obviously also including the steering wheel or yoke - even down the steering shaft to some appropriate point - to the (inverted on assembly line, perhaps?) cabin/shell/superstructure?
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
4,819
40,144
US
That's a good summary, sort of magnifies my concerns re ARK. I have read the ARK thesis on Tesla everytime it is updated and I still don't think they get it right. I'm a huge fan of Tesla mission and I think that Tesla is uniquely poised to be the most valuable company in the history of earth. All that said, MB is no idiot and I've never known him to be flat footed wrong. So, he's having concerns and that's worth noting even if the thesis of Tesla does not change.
The counter argument to MB to me is:

FSD compliments EVs that are designed around a centralized computer. Tesla is the only company that seems to have a chance to deliver on both. Once that is done robotaxis become not just a talking point but a product. Once that is done there won't be nearly as much global demand for vehicles, maybe 1/2? Maybe less. So by then Tesla may effectively pull off on of the greatest feats in all modern economic history by killing vehicle manufacturing and turning it from a capital goods to software. The capital goods portion counting for less and less and the software systems controlling everything. In a coup de grace Tesla will be able to utilize huge amounts of stranded EV battery capacity for energy capture having a fleet of production capabilities and the software that virtualizes power plants from various points of power distribution and storage. I think all this happens around 2030 and the disruption will be epic. It could effectively bankrupt much of corporate Japan and some of Germany. China seems to be playing a good hand. In the US I see only Ford moving intelligently but oh so slowly. VW makes lots of noise but they have social/political issues in shuttering a hundred factories. They have no silicon experience, they have outsourced software to the worst place in the world. They needed to have built 10x the battery capacity 3 years ago..they have issues on issues but shuttering 100 factories is probably the largest. GM- far too little too late and all talk too little build and what they build is so stupid- pouch batteries. So stupid. They seriously planned to offer competitive cars with pouch format batteries. Any casual critical observer should have said WTF? Wall St is clueless.

So to me the TSLA argument is very high level and forward looking - 8 years out I expect Tesla to be the cause of bankruptcies. Tesla and only Tesla is combining AI and manufacturing. Tesla and only Tesla is preparing for a world with significantly fewer auto's and lots of stranded battery capacity. Not sure what's that worth and if I'm an investor I would not really care. It will be worth billion and billions in profits. It could dwarf anything known. But then I'm a forester, trees take decades to grow. I'm comfortable and if I were to be growing a tesla I'd be looking at decades.
I think MB should focus his shorting efforts on the individual companies ARK picks vs the entire ETF. As long as ARK has credibility, they have first mover advantage and will most likely not lose money. They bought nano at 4 dollars, even with the hype plus crash they are still up.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
10,246
81,119
At home
Maybe a bit OT but I know that all of you are successful in your fields and maybe have some ideas for me.
I work as much as I possibly can (~110-115 hours a week) and invest everything I can into TSLA. Ever since my investing portfolio surpassed the multimillion dollar mark, I moved my goal to 8 figures. I can’t for the life of me, figure out how to get there though. Anyone have any ideas? Real estate and owning a business are the only other things I can think of at this point. But I’m not so sure about either of those.
I know it’s not all about money, and I’m so so grateful for everything I have, but I think…”if so many people in the world figured out how to achieve 8 figures within a few years, maybe I can too.”
Well, there is the "other" thread...
 

Tes La Ferrari

Active Member
Jun 1, 2018
1,241
8,505
Canada
Clearly inspired by Elon / Tesla; the Mercedes Electric Semi to hit production with a 420kwh battery.



TL; DR: "
Mercedes-Benz has officially begun (on October 7, 2021) series production of its first battery-electric truck, the Mercedes-Benz eActros, envisioned for heavy-duty distribution. The 420 kWh battery should offer a range of up to about 400 km (250 miles)."
 
Clearly inspired by Elon / Tesla; the Mercedes Electric Semi to hit production with a 420kwh battery.

"The 420 kWh battery should offer a range of up to about 400 km (250 miles)."


TL: DR: "
Mercedes-Benz has officially begun (on October 7, 2021) series production of its first battery-electric truck, the Mercedes-Benz eActros, envisioned for heavy-duty distribution."
There’s that number again :oops:🪴🔥

Hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. Lots of interesting tidbits of information revealed in the last 72 hours. I’m as bullish as ever looking into 2022 and beyond.
 

AMN

Member
Supporting Member
May 24, 2013
412
2,148
MSP, NYC, BZN

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CLK350

Member
Supporting Member
Oct 15, 2019
537
4,577
New York City
Regarding emplacing the seats atop the battery pack as shown :

can it likewise not also be so fundamentally easier/quicker/more efficient to pre-attach the entire dashboard, obviously also including the steering wheel or yoke - even down the steering shaft to some appropriate point - to the (inverted on assembly line, perhaps?) cabin/shell/superstructure?
Maybe for safety reasons: the whole front end, including dashboard and steering column are part of the crush zone - they need to be able to deform + - to absorb shocks. Seat (including passenger) and power pack are core areas to be protected.

[armchair engineering thoughts - post guessing why Tesla does what it does is fun tho]
 

Lessmog

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,899
8,010
Smögen
Maybe for safety reasons: the whole front end, including dashboard and steering column are part of the crush zone - they need to be able to deform + - to absorb shocks. Seat (including passenger) and power pack are core areas to be protected.

[armchair engineering thoughts - post guessing why Tesla does what it does is fun tho]
I like the thought -- anchored to the most stable, heavy and fixed part of the car. Anything else may crumble, not the chair.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UkNorthampton

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,872
34,810
Global Vehicle Production by Country

Entertaining that the world's largest auto manufacturing and consuming country was not even on the list at all in 1988. Japan was really dominating then.
World leaders invariably let hubris catch hold. Sooner or later they lose their way.
 

Lessmog

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,899
8,010
Smögen
Entertaining that the world's largest auto manufacturing and consuming country was not even on the list at all in 1988. Japan was really dominating then.
World leaders invariably let hubris catch hold. Sooner or later they lose their way.
Missed watching the whole movie.
What car brand were Thelma&Louise driving again?
And can't quite recall The End.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: 1101011

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,825
44,406
Michigan
Regarding emplacing the seats atop the battery pack as shown :

can it likewise not also be so fundamentally easier/quicker/more efficient to pre-attach the entire dashboard, obviously also including the steering wheel or yoke - even down the steering shaft to some appropriate point - to the (inverted on assembly line, perhaps?) cabin/shell/superstructure?
The IP (dash and such) is installed as a unit now. A nose down attitude would let it rest in place, but current fixturing makes this a non issue. Normal orientation allows the rest of the car to be worked on simultaneously.
Slow version of the Model 3 build:
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,872
34,810
Regarding emplacing the seats atop the battery pack as shown :

can it likewise not also be so fundamentally easier/quicker/more efficient to pre-attach the entire dashboard, obviously also including the steering wheel or yoke - even down the steering shaft to some appropriate point - to the (inverted on assembly line, perhaps?) cabin/shell/superstructure?
Next step: eliminate the steering shaft. No reason for a physical connection anyway, other than tradition. If 'fly by wire' works for Airbus and Boeing without controversy (it did have some with the first FBW, the A320. Now zero issues.

Automotive steering is really easy. The yoke is obviously intended to be used with that, so variable sensitivity can be easily done. Why so slow? After all Steer by Wire would be cheaper by ~$200 per vehicle, provide better steering control and allow faster and more accurate accident avoidance.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,504
32,658
Regarding emplacing the seats atop the battery pack as shown :

can it likewise not also be so fundamentally easier/quicker/more efficient to pre-attach the entire dashboard, obviously also including the steering wheel or yoke - even down the steering shaft to some appropriate point - to the (inverted on assembly line, perhaps?) cabin/shell/superstructure?
Aaannnnddd....if you look at the 24-minute mark or so of @GOVA's excellent videolink, you will see that that is exactly what Tesla also now is doing.

They must have used their forward time machine to read my thoughts.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,504
32,658
Next step: eliminate the steering shaft. No reason for a physical connection anyway, other than tradition. If 'fly by wire' works for Airbus and Boeing without controversy (it did have some with the first FBW, the A320. Now zero issues.

Automotive steering is really easy. The yoke is obviously intended to be used with that, so variable sensitivity can be easily done. Why so slow? After all Steer by Wire would be cheaper by ~$200 per vehicle, provide better steering control and allow faster and more accurate accident avoidance.
I was hoping someone would bring this up. From the world of sailing, I can say that the three main ways of connecting the helm (wheel) and the rudder are rod, cable or hydraulic (with +/- steering by electric wire perhaps available on superyachts - I don't know). The best "feel" comes from rod; the worst - i.e., the helmsman feels disconnected - is from hydraulic (unless supremely tweaked...a difficult task). So I wonder whether the "easy" (ha!) task of flying an airplane through +/- limitless 3D space may be fine for fly-by-wire, but when one has the 1D-to-2D task of handling an automobile, with a slight third dimension in the bumps etc of the road, drive-by-wire might, it seems to me, be an insipind, uncomfortable experience. Thoughts?
 

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