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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,482
32,351
Don't get me wrong. I like the reference.
But "steering" a sailboat under sail (you did mean under sail?) is the extreme of steering, Changes in every nautical condition while attempting to stay on course for days not only 1D 2D 3D...and put as many other "D"s as you like for the vagaries of the sea AND air... Steering a sailboat requires an even greater "feel" than piloting an aircraft in all but the extreme cases because of how slowly it all plays out, and how deceiving the sea can be.
I am not saying steering a sailboat is more important than steering an aircraft, just that the feel required to steer a sailboat at the highest level is much more of a need in order to achieve the highest level of performance.
The only possibility of my getting you wrong...is that I believe you reinforced everything I said: it is the bane of every skipper to have a dead, i.e., "feelless" helm. That is why I queried the sensitivity of a drive-by-wire system.
 
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StrongGuy

Member
Oct 9, 2021
40
211
New Jersey
Hey, guys. I'm new here.

I bought TSLA pre-SP500 inclusion at average price of under $400. I sold at $880ish and then rebought at $600.

With the marketcap approaching close to $1 trillion, I'm starting to wonder if all of the growth from the automotive side has been priced in already and if I'm better off investing in something else. Yes, I'm well aware of the potential of robotaxis, but I'm a FSD-bear and don't think it's ever happening.

If we're valuing Tesla solely as a car company and assuming they can manufacture 20 million cars annually, would their current valuation be justified? I'd imagine most of the cars sold then would be a cheaper $25K model with lower margins, so my initial instinct is no.

I have to admit that getting called a moron by friends and people online for investing in TSLA has been making me second-guess my investment choice. Hoping that some of you can bring a different opinion on the matter.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
4,811
40,045
US
That would be my guess. He shorted it about New Years or so and then it fell a few hundred and he could get out with a big profit and then short Ark which looks to me to be a much better short. I'd love to hear an interview where he gave his insight on valuation of Tesla.
You know I might be reading what he is saying wrong. He did not make multiple millions on his put options. He is most likely saying his few hundred thousand bet turned into a few hundred million bet because the media is stupid.
 
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Accident

Member
Feb 6, 2016
113
1,414
Houston, TX
Honestly I would be surprised if the average taxi driver/uber put more than 200 miles on their car in a day, Which will most likely be in urban slow crawl than anything else. I doubt a current LFP SR+ would need charging in a day
It depends on the city where they are driving. A single roundtrip from some Houston’s suburbs to the airport can be more than 100 miles. I know some Uber drivers that put close to 10,000 miles on their cars during their busiest months.
 

Mengy

Member
Feb 18, 2020
729
6,127
PA
I know you're being sarcastic, but I actually read through many of them, and they don't seem to do any kind of analysis that answers my questions.

Uh, then you haven't read very much of this thread or anywhere else on the forum, have you?

Good luck with your investing, but I'd buy and hold as much TSLA as you possibly can if I were you. Even at the current prices. Ignore what your friends are saying, how much do they know about Tesla as a company?
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,787
44,161
Michigan
I know you're being sarcastic, but I actually read through many of them, and they don't seem to do any kind of analysis that answers my questions.
Whichever point of view you are trying to support, you can find posts that fit.
(And if not, check the previous years')
(And if that fails, use site:teslamotorsclub.com and your key words on google)
 

ByeByeJohnny

Active Member
Dec 18, 2016
1,183
10,204
on top of a rocket
I know you're being sarcastic, but I actually read through many of them, and they don't seem to do any kind of analysis that answers my questions.
Well if you sold at $880 and rebought at $600 then you were either very very lucky with your timing. Twice. Or you are so much smarter than us all that you don't need our expertise.

You really don't want to go for a third or even fourth try though. Just hold.
 

Cattledog

Active Member
Supporting Member
Feb 9, 2012
2,253
3,631
San Antonio, TX
Hey, guys. I'm new here.

I bought TSLA pre-SP500 inclusion at average price of under $400. I sold at $880ish and then rebought at $600.

With the marketcap approaching close to $1 trillion, I'm starting to wonder if all of the growth from the automotive side has been priced in already and if I'm better off investing in something else. Yes, I'm well aware of the potential of robotaxis, but I'm a FSD-bear and don't think it's ever happening.

If we're valuing Tesla solely as a car company and assuming they can manufacture 20 million cars annually, would their current valuation be justified? I'd imagine most of the cars sold then would be a cheaper $25K model with lower margins, so my initial instinct is no.

I have to admit that getting called a moron by friends and people online for investing in TSLA has been making me second-guess my investment choice. Hoping that some of you can bring a different opinion on the matter.
Stay the course.

Tesla will be the most valuable company by market share you will see in your lifetime (unless you're 5). You're invested in TSLA for everything you know and believe about it (probably worth about $3T by 2030), those things you don't believe about it ($?, but even ok if $0), and everything you don't know about yet (at least another $3T - a month ago know one knew that humanoid robots were coming as a stocking stuffer in the next couple years - something like that will happen every few years, but we just don't know what.)

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the adoption of sustainable energy - but really their whole existence is defined by acceleration. Never a constant speed, always an increasing rate of change forward.

If we all thought TSLA was done, none of us would be here.

Not an advice. You'll need to go back a couple hundred thousand posts to get the meaning behind this.
 

MikeC

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jul 9, 2012
3,043
7,092
Los Angeles
You know I might be reading what he is saying wrong. He did not make multiple millions on his put options. He is most likely saying his few hundred thousand bet turned into a few hundred million bet because the media is stupid.

No - he's saying, after the fact, that the media misinterpreted his position by reporting the size of the trade at the full exercise value of the options, instead of what he actually paid. Which was obvious to us here at the time. He's since deleted his September 2020 posts where he initially posted his short thesis. I don't believe his views merit further discussion here.

 

22522

Active Member
Jun 6, 2016
2,126
6,322
Texas
I know you're being sarcastic, but I actually read through many of them, and they don't seem to do any kind of analysis that answers my questions.
There is some guy named Gary Black on twitter that posts all sorts of spreadsheets telling you when exactly to sell. I don't know if these are your questions or your friends questions, but pretty sure you will go away content. You are both from Jersey.

I cannot be helpful as I believe that money should be put to work making jobs for people and the world a better place.

Gold and crypto may deliver better returns.
 

StrongGuy

Member
Oct 9, 2021
40
211
New Jersey
What margins and asp will tesla have in 2030? Who knows.

Dont even know what the breakdown of 20m vehicles would be..
1m model 3
3-4m model Y
1m Cybertruck
3m mini cybertruck
10m '25k car'
1m Van
200k specialist vehicles (roadster/s/x)
5000 Semi

?

Assuming that Tesla will maintain a 30% gross margin and ASP of $35,000.
Gross profit will be $210 billion. Maybe profit margin will be 15%, which is outstanding for a mass-market auto company leading to a net income of $105 Billion.
I think the company would stop growing then, and so P/E ratio will be something modest like 5-8.

I'm just having trouble justifying Tesla's valuation if Tesla doesn't solve FSD.
 

SN_8

Member
Jan 5, 2021
214
3,807
USA
I have to admit that getting called a moron by friends and people online for investing in TSLA has been making me second-guess my investment choice. Hoping that some of you can bring a different opinion on the matter.

My serious answer is to check out a few of the easy to digest valuation models on YouTube, e.g. from Tesla Daily.

My slightly less serious comment... If you base your investment decisions on online insults, would it help if we call you a moron for wanting to sell?
 

JusRelax

Active Member
Apr 24, 2019
1,019
13,386
Los Angeles, CA
Assuming that Tesla will maintain a 30% gross margin and ASP of $35,000.
Gross profit will be $210 billion. Maybe profit margin will be 15%, which is outstanding for a mass-market auto company leading to a net income of $105 Billion.
I think the company would stop growing then, and so P/E ratio will be something modest like 5-8.

I'm just having trouble justifying Tesla's valuation if Tesla doesn't solve FSD.
Are you just as bearish on Energy, Teslabot, AI, HVAC, EVTOL, Robotaxis within Boring tunnels (i.e. - FSD within a closed system), and in-car gaming/software/entertainment/productivity as you are on FSD?
 

Tachyon

Member
Oct 13, 2016
173
1,222
Milwaukee
Hey, guys. I'm new here.

I bought TSLA pre-SP500 inclusion at average price of under $400. I sold at $880ish and then rebought at $600.

With the marketcap approaching close to $1 trillion, I'm starting to wonder if all of the growth from the automotive side has been priced in already and if I'm better off investing in something else. Yes, I'm well aware of the potential of robotaxis, but I'm a FSD-bear and don't think it's ever happening.

If we're valuing Tesla solely as a car company and assuming they can manufacture 20 million cars annually, would their current valuation be justified? I'd imagine most of the cars sold then would be a cheaper $25K model with lower margins, so my initial instinct is no.

I have to admit that getting called a moron by friends and people online for investing in TSLA has been making me second-guess my investment choice. Hoping that some of you can bring a different opinion on the matter.
The first principle of investing is to do due diligence and know the company you are investing in.
This will require a lot of reading and putting in the hrs .
This forum is an excellent resource for such information on Tesla.
Please feel Free to read through the posts over past 10 months and all your questions will be answered.
Unfortunately, there is no easy money to be made anywhere in the world.
No spoon feeding specially here at TMC.
Hope you will stay on.Good luck.
 

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