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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Do you think it's much of an issue that the 2 new factories are close to opening and they will be incurring close to the normal operational costs but without any revenues?

As @st_lopes commented, most costs at Berlin and Austin get capitalized to Buildings and Equipment during construction. Even payroll costs involved in validating equipment get capitalized to equipment (not expensed) and later depreciated over several years.
I did however include $15m in expense to cover costs that cannot be capitalized such as employee training and management personnel such as human resources, etc.
Did you hear Elon at the shareholder meeting when he talked about paying to have parts shipped around the world? I guess we have no way to track this, but have you accounted for a rough stab-in-the-dark ballpark estimate of shipping costs for sending parts around the world?
I included $10m for higher shipping costs due to expedited shipping. As you say, it's a stab in the dark.
 
Cool FSD update.

Remember a few weeks back when Elon said their neural networks could detect arbitrary objects and avoid them even if it couldn't classify them (e.g. UFOs)? Well it looks like they've cracked the problem of visualizing those arbitrary obstacles:

Watching rob mauers first drive it’s pretty clear the car doesn’t recognize objects in front, this scene was super scary and embarrassing imho:
E90EE056-97F3-42B9-BFBB-3B8D4F7AD761.jpeg

So imho this should have not been released w/o general object detection.
 
Watching rob mauers first drive it’s pretty clear the car doesn’t recognize objects in front, this scene was super scary and embarrassing imho:
View attachment 720747
So imho this should have not been released w/o general object detection.
It is a beta and you need to be watching the road at all times. It is a judgement call to release beta software and IMO, it is ready. I get yours is different.
 
So imho this should have not been released w/o general object detection.

That voxel object detection is in the FSD 10.2 stack. You can see this crosswalk post visualized in voxels in one of the subsequent tweets in that thread:


I don't think there's anything wrong with perception. It can probably see the obstruction, it just doesn't yet know how to respond to it. The way those construction cones were laid out would have required the car to cross the double yellow.
 
Watching rob mauers first drive it’s pretty clear the car doesn’t recognize objects in front, this scene was super scary and embarrassing imho:
View attachment 720747
So imho this should have not been released w/o general object detection.
THIS is a prime example of what I mean when I say that FSD can't comprehend the stupidity of humans. Each of those signs are wrong. How is a machine going to understand the stupidity of
Orange sign... Go either side of this sign except maybe more to your left
White sign...do not go
Yellow sign...go down the closed road.

It is almost as if some youtuber tried to test FSD.
 
Did you hear Elon at the shareholder meeting when he talked about paying to have parts shipped around the world? I guess we have no way to track this, but have you accounted for a rough stab-in-the-dark ballpark estimate of shipping costs for sending parts around the world? (Edit: Yes, I'm looking for excuses just to make your estimates more conservative, just so I'm more excited when the numbers come out).

We need more context to know what "paying to have parts shipped" mean. Chips which I hope what Elon is referring to would be very light. On relative terms, yes 500% increase in cost but in absolute terms, a nickle vs a penny.

Apple I believe air freights 100% of their products. Phones for sure. Every one of them from the past 5-6 years go from factory to doorstep.

We blow out - UNLESS Wallstreet pulls some BS and upgrades consensus higher and we miss or 'barely' beat.
 
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THIS is a prime example of what I mean when I say that FSD can't comprehend the stupidity of humans. Each of those signs are wrong. How is a machine going to understand the stupidity of
Orange sign... Go either side of this sign except maybe more to your left
White sign...do not go
Yellow sign...go down the closed road.

It is almost as if some youtuber tried to test FSD.
A very fair point, but the default behavior if it doesn't understand poor signage or objects in its path needs to be a failsafe stop and request human takeover, rather than attempting to continue and crashing through the objects!

I'm confident this will keep improving to near perfection eventually, just hoping no one is hurt in the meantime, for both those involved and the s**tstorm that will occur in the media.
 
THIS is a prime example of what I mean when I say that FSD can't comprehend the stupidity of humans. Each of those signs are wrong. How is a machine going to understand the stupidity of
Orange sign... Go either side of this sign except maybe more to your left
White sign...do not go
Yellow sign...go down the closed road.

It is almost as if some youtuber tried to test FSD.
I think FSD should just simply re-route to avoid this section of the road, or stop to wait driver's intervention.
 
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