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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Formula 1 race :)
with Billy Joel concert.

Related thoughts: Some systems try to learn what you like and put you in an echo chamber. Youtube and Google products in general.

Tesla is different. The Tesla streaming radio teaches you to ask for what you want. This is an important but subtle (to some) difference.

If Tesla had put me in an echo chamber it would never give me the Chipmunks singing Home on the Range.

It would not give me Don't Get Around Much Anymore by HC jr.

I have to ask for Gene Autry and Louis Armstrong. But if I ask in the right way I can get what I want.

Hint: This an important lesson for children of tantrum age who are just learning the nuance of trial and error communicaiton.

With the Tesla way you end up with more discovery, more dexterity and more power.

With the echo way you end up with less discovery, less dexterity and less power. Almost sinister. (evil)
 
I'm just happy to be in there somewhere. ;)

im-somebody-now.jpg


Cheers!

Honest to goodness, in my wildest dreams, I never thought this would happen, my accountant asked me for financial advice. This maybe cowardly, but I deferred; I told her to talk to you guys.

PS Steve Martin went to High School across town from me. I heard he was a cheerleader!
 
Honest to goodness, in my wildest dreams, I never thought this would happen, my accountant asked me for financial advice. This maybe cowardly, but I deferred; I told her to talk to you guys.

PS Steve Martin went to High School across town from me. I heard he was a cheerleader!
When I grow up I want a beard just like yours.
 
North Texas clay sometimes drifts across the roads at intersections. Like the last 18 feet before the stop line. I don't trust the last car length and get all my breaking done before that. (also oil tends to be thicker where cars and trucks spend more time).

Kind of like not trusting the last inch on a tape measure or ruler.
 
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FF a few minutes, I'm not on a computer where I can view youtube, but I distinctly remember him doing 30 in a 25, and 25 in a 20 through most of the first 30 minutes of the video. I was discussing it with someone else while watching it and paused it multiple times to show them the speed offset.

I was generalizing when I said he started at +5, forgive me for not creating dozens of timestamps showing all the times he was at +5.

Pulling it up on my phone he goes to +5 at 7:44 in the video and stays there for quite some time, I'm not going to waste my mobile data checking for further timestamps.
@Crowded Mind

OK, I'm on a computer where I can reexamine this and see where the confusion comes in.

At 2:23 when he is about to have the big moment of the first hard disengagement the speed limit is 25 and the setting is +1 MPH allowing 26.

1634086877224.png


One second later it's 30 mph +1 and 31.

1634086942784.png

As a human I scan left to right or right to left and as I was watching the numbers changed, I saw 25 mph on the right then looked left and saw 31.

The car accelerates towards a barrier, 26,27,28, 29,30 before he disengages. No +5 in play there.

He reengages, enters the cones and it's still set for 30, +1, 31 and it disengages forcing him to take over, again no +5 in play.

At 7:42 he moves it up to +5.

At 12:30 he stops, when he starts up again it goes back to +1
at 12:50 he puts it back to +5

at 17:55 there is a curve with lots of parked cars and the car is still doing 5 over. It made me nervous just watching it, but I guess Rob doesn't mind 30 in a 25 with tight margins.

at 20:38 he chooses a new destination while doing 30 in a 25, the speed limit changes to 30 in the next second, and the max speed becomes +1. Was that because of the new destination or because rob used the scroll wheel? Either way easy to miss the complex interaction there.

next three disengagements are all at +1.

at 31:12 he goes back to +5

next time he switches destinations it goes back to +1 and stays there the rest of the video.

----------

tl;dr I was concerned watching it last night at 1x speed but reviewing it tonight at 1.3x to 2x speed and paying closer attention to the transitions I see some details I missed on the first pass.

In a city I didn't know, at night, I would have driven slower in all the areas with parked cars or pedestrians. But Most of the areas I was concerned about were in +1 mode, only one was in +5.

So was I wrong, yes, at least partially.
 
I didn't see this posted. Looks like some significant support for the UAW addendum in the EV bill.


In a letter seen by Reuters, 107 Democrats urged Pelosi to retain the credit supported by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, the AFL-CIO and U.S. automakers. The $4,500 credit would provide a significant boost to Detroit's three automakers -- General Motors Co (GM.N), Ford Motor Co (F.N) and Chrysler-parent Stellantis .

"We strongly support leveling the playing field between non-union and unionized workforces by including the added $4,500 incentive to support union-made EVs," the letter said led by Representative Thomas Suozzi.

Is that not basically a direct statement that UAW leads to an uncompetitive enterprise? I'm surprised he wasn't a bit more clever with this and frame it as simply supporting unions which are platonically good things not to be questioned because of how much they did for labor back in the 1890s.

But let's work with the premise. It seems to me $4500 far exceeds the actual assembly costs, If it's 100 combined man-hours that's 45$/hour. Does anyone have a better estimate for how much actual UAW labor is required per vehicle?

The tax credits, which are part of proposed $3.5 trillion spending bill, would cost $15.6 billion over 10 years.

This continues to be an absolutely absurd estimate. At let's say an average of $8,000 that's predicting ~2m uses of this subsidy over 10 years. seriously wtf?
 
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I didn't see this posted. Looks like some significant support for the UAW addendum in the EV bill.




Is that not basically a direct statement that UAW leads to an uncompetitive enterprise? I'm surprised he wasn't a bit more clever with this and frame it as simply supporting unions which are platonically good things not to be questioned because of how much they did for labor back in the 1890s.

But let's work with the premise. It seems to me $4500 far exceeds the actual assembly costs, If it's 100 combined man-hours that's 45$/hour. Does anyone have a better estimate for how much actual UAW labor is required per vehicle?



This continues to be an absolutely absurd estimate. At let's say an average of $8,000 that's predicting ~2m uses of this subsidy over 10 years. seriously wtf?
I can't understand this proposed incentive, it appears to be anti competitive and hence bordering on cooperation between independent companies. I am not well versed in anti trust (really i'm not) but somehow this appears to be in violation of some anti trust laws.
 
I still think a "not union" will be easy enough to form and have all Tesla employees join. It'll be good to keep the absurdity of this front and center.

Did the last 27 times this idea was debunked not work for you?

Unions have pretty specific requirements and definitions under US law, you can't just have some employees go "Hey we have a 'union' it just doesn't do anything" and have that count.


I can't understand this proposed incentive, it appears to be anti competitive and hence bordering on cooperation between independent companies. I am not well versed in anti trust (really i'm not) but somehow this appears to be in violation of some anti trust laws.

...how would a tax credit violate anti-trust laws? That doesn't even really make sense as a sentence.

There's TONS of credits and other incentives in the tax code to favor certain actions or policies by businesses (or individuals) over other actions or policies.

Heck large parts of the tax code are specifically TO incentivize or discourage specific behaviors.



Anyway their premise is union shops offer better pay, and the conclusion they reach from that premise is the government should incentivize or subsidize better pay for workers.

That premise (that unions pay better in general than non-union shops) is factually correct IN GENERAL among auto companies.... last data I saw (from 2019) was that UAW paid about $30/hr on average while non-union shops paid in the low 20s.


Tesla is a bit of an odd duck here- they ALSO pay a decent bit lower wage than UAW shops- but they offer stock options that due to their somewhat unique position as a stock that's actually gaining significantly in value, more than make up for the wage gap.

Other non-union shops like VW, Honda, BMW, Toyota, etc....not so much.


This continues to be an absolutely absurd estimate. At let's say an average of $8,000 that's predicting ~2m uses of this subsidy over 10 years. seriously wtf?


3.5T is the entire spending bills proposed cost- not just the EV credits.

But then we already know THAT is getting slashed down to something more in the 1.5-2T range, so there's likely no way any of the current EV tax credits survive that cut in anything comparable to current proposals anyway.
 
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[...]

3.5T is the entire spending bills proposed cost- not just the EV credits.

But then we already know THAT is getting slashed down to something more in the 1.5-2T range, so there's likely no way any of the current EV tax credits survive that cut in anything comparable to current proposals anyway.
I sure hope the charging infrastructure money makes it to Tesla for opening up to legacy auto CCS1 cars by the end of the year. Is that still in the cards? I would be an enabler for legacy car makers to sell their EV without having to rely on VW-related ElectrifyAmerica mediocracy...
 
I sure hope the charging infrastructure money makes it to Tesla for opening up to legacy auto CCS1 cars by the end of the year. Is that still in the cards? I would be an enabler for legacy car makers to sell their EV without having to rely on VW-related ElectrifyAmerica mediocracy...


The charging stuff (7.5 billion total) is in the other, smaller, 1T infrastructure bill that was already passed by the senate and has been waiting on a vote by the house.

The house has been holding off on the vote because they want it tied to the (formerly) much larger overall 3.5T bill that would have (if they kept it full size anyway) some version of a revised EV vehicle purchase credit.

But I don't believe anybody has suggested changing or removing stuff from the smaller already-passed-by-senate bill.... so the charging stuff seems safe so long as it gets a vote in the house.