Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I'm just happy to be in there somewhere.

Cheers!

So, um, you have found your special purpose then?

 

[Tim S]

The headline says it all...

 

[Crowded Mind]

@Crowded Mind

OK, I'm on a computer where I can reexamine this and see where the confusion comes in.

At 2:23 when he is about to have the big moment of the first hard disengagement the speed limit is 25 and the setting is +1 MPH allowing 26.

View attachment 720824

One second later it's 30 mph +1 and 31.

View attachment 720825
As a human I scan left to right or right to left and as I was watching the numbers changed, I saw 25 mph on the right then looked left and saw 31.

The car accelerates towards a barrier, 26,27,28, 29,30 before he disengages. No +5 in play there.

He reengages, enters the cones and it's still set for 30, +1, 31 and it disengages forcing him to take over, again no +5 in play.

At 7:42 he moves it up to +5.

At 12:30 he stops, when he starts up again it goes back to +1
at 12:50 he puts it back to +5

at 17:55 there is a curve with lots of parked cars and the car is still doing 5 over. It made me nervous just watching it, but I guess Rob doesn't mind 30 in a 25 with tight margins.

at 20:38 he chooses a new destination while doing 30 in a 25, the speed limit changes to 30 in the next second, and the max speed becomes +1. Was that because of the new destination or because rob used the scroll wheel? Either way easy to miss the complex interaction there.

next three disengagements are all at +1.

at 31:12 he goes back to +5

next time he switches destinations it goes back to +1 and stays there the rest of the video.

----------

tl;dr I was concerned watching it last night at 1x speed but reviewing it tonight at 1.3x to 2x speed and paying closer attention to the transitions I see some details I missed on the first pass.

In a city I didn't know, at night, I would have driven slower in all the areas with parked cars or pedestrians. But Most of the areas I was concerned about were in +1 mode, only one was in +5.

So was I wrong, yes, at least partially.

Interesting, thanks for taking the time to go back through.

 

[Ogre]

But let's work with the premise. It seems to me $4500 far exceeds the actual assembly costs, If it's 100 combined man-hours that's 45$/hour. Does anyone have a better estimate for how much actual UAW labor is required per vehicle?

I think the dollar amount here is deliberately set so that a PHEV from Ford or Chevy gets as much cash incentive money for making a PHEV as Tesla gets for making a BEV. A PHEV Wranger with a 10kWh battery which gets a whooping ~20MPG will get more incentive money than the Cybertruck. (The PHEV would get $4k for making a Hybrid with a 10kWh battery and $4500 for the union clause).

That to me is the real crime here, if they made the stupid union clause so it only kicked in with the 60kWh or greater vehicles then it wouldn’t have as much effect. The unions are established at the Ford and Chevy ICE/ PHEV facilities which require more labor and are at established union facilities.

The clause in a nutshell is designed to prop up unions at the expense of the environment.

Honestly… if the subsidy keeps subsidizing PHEVs, I’d prefer they just let it expire. Tesla is already doing fine without it and can’t grow any faster due to supply and facilities.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Did the last 27 times this idea was debunked not work for you?

Unions have pretty specific requirements and definitions under US law, you can't just have some employees go "Hey we have a 'union' it just doesn't do anything" and have that count.

How can you debunk a hypothesis that hasn't been tested? (Don't put me on your list of 10 page snippy argument buddies)

I'd be willing to wager a considerable amount that, should this 4500 union bump pass, Tesla will create a means to qualify without joining UAW.

Obviously I'll want odds.

 

[mongo]

I think his comment refers to the fact that what was shown in that video isn't actually a laser

Huh? That is laser cleaning* by a company that makes cleaning lasers: P-laser Industrial laser cleaning

*(Using a laser to clean, not a laser being cleaned)

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, um, you have found your special purpose then?

HEY! You're not Carnival personnel!

 

[Discoducky]

Jalopnik article that is bollocks.

Tesla's Germany Plant Is Still A Big Gamble
By Erik Shilling

No link, author believes Tesla will most likely pollute the water. Oh man I want to rant and swear about paid journalist swill.

 

[Buckminster]

Jalopnik article that is bollocks.

Tesla's Germany Plant Is Still A Big Gamble
By Erik Shilling

No link, author believes Tesla will most likely pollute the water. Oh man I want to rant and swear about paid journalist swill.

His name is Shilling?

 

[Tslynk67]

Whats going on in Austin next weekend? My son invited us down for when he gets engaged. So went to book hotel room and the cheapest place is a Motel 6 $313 per night. Next is $659 per night. Just crazy. Could a lot of Tesla employees be coming down for some serious testing and launching of Model Y production?

US F1 GP in Austin the weekend of the 23/24 United States Grand Prix 2021 - F1 Race

 

[jhm]

I didn't see this posted. Looks like some significant support for the UAW addendum in the EV bill.

More than 100 U.S. lawmakers urge Pelosi to back union EV tax credit

More than 100 U.S. House lawmakers on Tuesday urged Speaker Nancy Pelosi to keep a $4,500 tax credit incentive for union-built electric vehicles (EV) in a massive spending bill.

www.reuters.com

Is that not basically a direct statement that UAW leads to an uncompetitive enterprise? I'm surprised he wasn't a bit more clever with this and frame it as simply supporting unions which are platonically good things not to be questioned because of how much they did for labor back in the 1890s.

But let's work with the premise. It seems to me $4500 far exceeds the actual assembly costs, If it's 100 combined man-hours that's 45$/hour. Does anyone have a better estimate for how much actual UAW labor is required per vehicle?



This continues to be an absolutely absurd estimate. At let's say an average of $8,000 that's predicting ~2m uses of this subsidy over 10 years. seriously wtf?

I had no idea union labor was a $4500 disadvantage per car.

A lean operation can build a car with just 15 hours of labor, but maybe as much as 60 hours for truly inefficient auto making. But even for labor intensive 60 hours per car, $4500 works out to be an extra credit of $75/hour. How much of that are the actual rank-and-file getting paid incremental to non-union auto workers?

https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/global/en/files/archive/2009/automotivemanager_2009_en.pdf

 

[RobDickinson]

Jalopnik article that is bollocks.

Tesla's Germany Plant Is Still A Big Gamble
By Erik Shilling

No link, author believes Tesla will most likely pollute the water. Oh man I want to rant and swear about paid journalist swill.

Tesla is likely one of the most scrutinised companies that's ever existed

 

[SPadival]

Not bad

Alaska cashed out 75% of its GameStop stock last quarter - and boosted its Tesla bet by 5%

Alaska cashed out 75% of its GameStop stock last quarter - and boosted its Tesla bet by 5% — Business Insider Australia

The US state's revenue arm sold about 29,000 GameStop shares for around $5 million, thanks to the meme stock's outperformance this year.

apple.news

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla is likely one of the most scrutinised companies that's ever existed

While failing to complete the math of BEVs (see recent JB Straubel quote) Tesla gets the scrutiny instead. This is the path of the disruptor.

In a strange way, this human tendency to shoot the messenger furthers the odds of success by extending (perhaps fatally) the reaction time of the disrupted industry.

 

[lascavarian]

10 yr settling back below 1.6% seems to be giving a little tailwind.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1448213998936203266

 

[StealthP3D]

Tmoz did not say anything about without supervision. He said ready to handle driving in your local city, with a near zero chance of intervention.

The "him" in my response is obviously referring to the tweet under discussion:

It's a misrepresentation that Elon thinks FSD is currently ready for city streets. The proof is that only a few select people have it and even those people are required to monitor it as if they are in control of the vehicle at all times.

 

[heltok]

Tesla should have no problem hiring lots of staff at Berlin:

Volkswagen CEO warns a delay in shift to electric vehicles could cost 30,000 jobs - sources

Volkswagen's CEO Herbert Diess told a supervisory board meeting in September that the company could lose 30,000 jobs if it transitioned too slowly to electric vehicles (EVs), two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

10 yr settling back below 1.6% seems to be giving a little tailwind.

Yup,

US10Y:Tradeweb​

Yield | 5:51 AM EDT​

1.565% ↓-0.015​

while TSLA is up 2x vs QQQ: (NDX-100 macros)

QQQ Oct. 13, 5:41 a.m. EDT​

Pre-market 359.06 +1.92 (0.54%)​

​

TSLA Oct. 13, 5:43 a.m. EDT​

Pre-market 812.89 +7.17 (0.89%)​

 

[jbcarioca]

Check AAPL today. The stock tanked AH so I assume a few contracts got executed. There are like six of those spikes.

For AAPL the primary reason is a cut in iPhone production due to chip and other supply chain problems. It will be amazing if Tesla manages to avoid the chip issues, but other supply chain and finished vehicle shipping still will be. huge issue this quarter.