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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,700
15,152
QLD Australia
Not saying Elon hates the Y. He can see the numbers and knows how well the thing is selling. The Y as the initial product at Berlin and Austin is obvious.

But I've been watching Elon Musk, his twitter feed, and reading TMC since 2007. And I just can't help but notice he's less invested in the Y than in other Tesla cars. Elon Musk likes the Y, he just doesn't love it like he loved the S, X, or 3, or loves the Cybertruck. It's like the other programs were personally run by Elon Musk while the Y was done by the Tesla team mostly on its own.

The Model Y reveal was let's say "low key", Elon didn't want to Osborne Model 3.

Elon is a fan of how the Model Y is being built, castings/structural pack etc,.

It is a higher priority that other products, 2 factories current;y build it, with 2 more coming online..

It is more of a practical car, which doesn't have the "wow factor" of Plaid Model S/ Roadster and Cybertruck...

The compact model will be similar, it might be low key, but Model Y and the compact Model are what customers want to buy...

People have different needs, different budgets and want different things, Tesla will try to make something for everyone.. Elon might not hype up every model.
 
The Model Y reveal was let's say "low key", Elon didn't want to Osborne Model 3.

Elon is a fan of how the Model Y is being built, castings/structural pack etc,.

It is a higher priority that other products, 2 factories current;y build it, with 2 more coming online..

It is more of a practical car, which doesn't have the "wow factor" of Plaid Model S/ Roadster and Cybertruck...

The compact model will be similar, it might be low key, but Model Y and the compact Model are what customers want to buy...

People have different needs, different budgets and want different things, Tesla will try to make something for everyone.. Elon might not hype up every model.
I am not an Industrial Designer. But to raise my game, I attended an Industrial Design Zoom meeting on Iconic Design. They did not mention a single Dreyfuss designed product... They did have “icon like” images of each product discussed.

Tesla was very deliberate about designing the S, 3 and Y to look like regular cars for market acceptance reasons. The edges on these cars are aero and soft. As the cost of batteries falls, the cost of aero deviations goes down as well. Designs can become more iconic- like the Cyber Truck.

The X was hubris [to show you could] and has some human cost to it.

So the Y is the least visceral. It pays the bills.

But if a kindergartner used a pair of round nose safety scissors to cut the shape from construction paper, and then asked others if they knew what it was, all would hear, “It’s a car!”

Not iconic.

The Cyber Truck is the first.

Kids everywhere will get rewarded with positive feedback when they render the Cyber Truck. Communication success! Positive voice pitch!

So this is agreement, with speculation on “recognition when rendered with blunt scissors in construction paper“ as a Musk design criteria for the next sibling of this middle child.
 
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Mike Smith

Active Member
Jul 2, 2016
2,284
32,044
Toronto
Needham's Rajvindra Gill reveals why he has a sell rating on Tesla: he's clueless. He thinks that in 2030 Giga Texas and Giga Berlin will produce 500k vehicles per year each.


'With a present “production base” of 1 million vehicles, and the potential to add an extra 1 million soon with the Giga Texas and Giga Berlin factories, Tesla would need capacity for 18 million more to achieve this goal (20M deliveries in 2030). Assuming 500,000 vehicle capacity at each plant, then an extra 36 Gigafactories would be needed in order to hit the target.'
 
Clearly clueless, but I still sometimes wonder what's holding Tesla back from literally building even more factories right now. It can't be cash. Is it human resources? I tend to believe that the coming years could actually be a good time for hiring people in many parts of the world (even if that's a bad sign for the general economy).
I also tend to believe that Tesla will be one of the few big companies that will actually dominate even more in a coming crisis. Their manufacturing- and therefor financial efficiency is mindblowing already, and it will get better with newer factories & products.
 

aGreenGuy

TSLA long
Supporting Member
Oct 14, 2021
2
87
Norway
Hi all, newbie poster here, TSLA owner since 2012, Tesla owner since 2013, TMC lurker since 2015. Thank you all, and especially moderators, for this valuable and entertaining asset.

I see that the Los Angeles Motor Show has introduced the ZEVAS - Zero Emission Vehicle Awards. To my delightful surprise, the full Tesla lineup is represented through it's categories. I trust the members of this forum give the ZEVAS their unbiased vote - even if the categories and Tesla's absence in some of them could be subject for debate. I guess it wouldn't hurt $TSLA to share the link :cool:


All the best!
 
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EVMeister

Lover of Tesla
Supporting Member
Apr 8, 2018
1,902
14,654
England
Clearly clueless, but I still sometimes wonder what's holding Tesla back from literally building even more factories right now. It can't be cash. Is it human resources? I tend to believe that the coming years could actually be a good time for hiring people in many parts of the world (even if that's a bad sign for the general economy).
I also tend to believe that Tesla will be one of the few big companies that will actually dominate even more in a coming crisis. Their manufacturing- and therefor financial efficiency is mindblowing already, and it will get better with newer factories & products.

Not just human resources but the materials needed to create the batteries and other parts. I'm sure the current parts and chip shortage issues have made Elon and higher management in the company focus more in on one of their key goals; efficiency. It's better to focus on making current factories work as efficiently as possible and focus resources on expanding their scale and capabilities than it is to just churn out extra factories. I'm sure they have very carefully assessed whether it's a good idea to try to do both at the same time and decided that currently, it isn't.
 

WarpedOne

Supreme Premier
Supporting Member
Aug 17, 2006
4,432
7,868
Slovenia, Europe
Clearly clueless, but I still sometimes wonder what's holding Tesla back from literally building even more factories right now

#1. They are still developing a better battery process, more suitable for TeraProduction - 4860
#2. They are still developing a better EV process, enablig faster production

You only need more factories when you can't build any faster. Tesla plans to build faster much...
 
Not just human resources but the materials needed to create the batteries and other parts. I'm sure the current parts and chip shortage issues have made Elon and higher management in the company focus more in on one of their key goals; efficiency. It's better to focus on making current factories work as efficiently as possible and focus resources on expanding their scale and capabilities than it is to just churn out extra factories. I'm sure they have very carefully assessed whether it's a good idea to try to do both at the same time and decided that currently, it isn't.
This is kind of important from a paving the cow path perspective (copying something out of habit, rather than because it works).

I used to work for AT&T. Government was a big part of their business environment. For example, as a cost plus regulated monopoly, it was very important that the time required to figure out how much something cost be longer than a congress person's term in office. This made them politically unassailable.

They also tried to put a factory in every state that had powerful representation in congress. This made them politically unassailable.

Other large companies did the same.

Tesla has a factory in New York state.

Every site (and every supplier) has a cost. If politics is not the primary driver, you want to get as much out of each factory as possible.

I think our expectation of what is normal is based on looking at infrastructure that is politically distributed rather than economically distributed based on efficiently serving society.

Elon is looking at efficiency first, (with political awareness always present but not driving).

Because of this, Tesla will look and be different (worth as much as all the other car companies combined).
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
11,028
151,372
Canada
Lane keeping in other brands doesn't avoid safety vehicles on the side of the road. It is not a defect, it's a limitation of the current technology. Tesla downloaded new capability. The idea of a recall by NHTSA is stupid. Do all other brands need to recall all their vehicles?

Rob Maurer eviscerates the NHTSA's silly assumptions for a recall in this video:

TL;dw "It's not a bug, its a feature".


Cheers!
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
11,028
151,372
Canada
I thought his tax bill will be 12 mill and change; where do you get 8 bill?

  • Restricted stock awards let you take advantage of a so-called "83(b) election," which allows you to report the stock award as ordinary income in the year it's granted and then start the capital gain holding period at that time
  • Caution: if the stock fails to appreciate, you don’t get a refund of the tax you paid when you made your election
  • Your alternative is to defer paying any tax until the stock is fully vested
"Determine if an 83(b) election is an option for you. If you're granted a restricted stock award, you have two choices":​
  1. you can pay ordinary income tax on the award when it's granted and pay long-term capital gains taxes on the gain when you sell, or
  2. you can pay ordinary income tax on the whole amount when it vests."
Further, Elon already has share equity loan facilities with 2 large investment banks. He could easily borrow against any new shares to cover a 20% long-term capital gains tax just on the equity in those shares alone.

That is, WITHOUT needing to provide any other collateral. I think that the Barron's article was sensationalizing the situation for clicks.

Paging @st_lopes

Cheers!
 
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Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
11,028
151,372
Canada
TSLA up sharply in the early Pre-market @1x strong macro tailwinds:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
14,891.75 +127.50 (+0.86%)
As of 5:25AM EDT. Market open.

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Oct 14, 2021 05:39 AM ET.
Consolidated Last Sale$817.37 +6.29 (+0.78%)
Pre-Market Volume28,090
Pre-Market High$817.9 (05:28:32 AM)
Pre-Market Low$814 (04:01:28 AM)
 
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The Accountant

Active Member
Aug 6, 2019
1,184
47,002
Connecticut, USA
Needham's Rajvindra Gill reveals why he has a sell rating on Tesla: he's clueless. He thinks that in 2030 Giga Texas and Giga Berlin will produce 500k vehicles per year each.

"Assuming 500,000 vehicle capacity at each plant, then an extra 36 Gigafactories would be needed in order to hit the target."
Wow
From Needham's website:
"Needham & Company’s primary goal in equity research is to provide in-depth, domain knowledge and deliver our analysis to a discerning and specialized institutional client base"

This is what they do for a living and they actually think that the Gigafactories max out at 500k vehicles? Even the land-constrained Fremont will get to 750k.
I never realized how weak the Wall Street analysts were until I started investing in and researching Tesla myself.

More knowledge of Tesla here on TMC than any Investment Bank's Equity Research department.
 

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