Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I'm still surprised that no legacy auto maker has thrown in the towel and attempted to license Tesla tech, software, drivetrain and/or FSD. I know egos are strong but joint ventures have been very common in the industry.

 

[StealthP3D]

I agree that the mission is moving forward and Tesla is selling everything they make. However, I think the membership here, on average, underestimates how much damage the FUD has done. Many people here are retired and out of touch with the working class. I regularly encounter people online and in person that think Elon is a terrible person and Tesla is overhyped.


As for the Model Y, it is the most boring of Teslas. I think that may be why Elon doesn't seem as excited about it. I own a Model Y, it is a great vehicle, but I do miss my old Model S. It will sell like crazy because it is so practical.

I hear you, I wasn't saying there are no gullible people that will succumb to the FUD, I was just commenting that this is a battle the FUDsters will not win so they can't claim "mission accomplished".

 

[Ogre]

Not saying Elon hates the Y. He can see the numbers and knows how well the thing is selling. The Y as the initial product at Berlin and Austin is obvious.

But I've been watching Elon Musk, his twitter feed, and reading TMC since 2007. And I just can't help but notice he's less invested in the Y than in other Tesla cars. Elon Musk likes the Y, he just doesn't love it like he loved the S, X, or 3, or loves the Cybertruck. It's like the other programs were personally run by Elon Musk while the Y was done by the Tesla team mostly on its own.

I don’t know about that. The unified front/ rear end & the structural battery are all part of the Y alone and Musk does tweet about those. He’s built 2 factories which are essentially dedicated to the Model Y (or in the case of Texas a third of a triple factory).

He also talks about how the Y will be the best selling vehicle in the world by 2024.

Honestly feels like the most important car in their lineup and Musk clearly spends an appropriate amount of time on it. Perhaps because he talks about the factories and the processes rather than the car itself you think he’s not engaged with it?

What do you think he would say or do if he were more engaged with it?

 

[Ogre]

As for the Model Y, it is the most boring of Teslas. I think that may be why Elon doesn't seem as excited about it. I own a Model Y, it is a great vehicle, but I do miss my old Model S. It will sell like crazy because it is so practical.

It is basically the modern equivalent of a station wagon or mini-van. Space for 5, lots of storage, a bit of a pig on the road.

Of course it’s kind of boring and practical. People need a boring and practical car to get along with life. You can’t change that.

But when you compare it to it’s predecessors, it is awesome. It is the fastest, most fun, most efficient soccer mom vehicle on the planet.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm still surprised that no legacy auto maker has thrown in the towel and attempted to license Tesla tech, software, drivetrain and/or FSD. I know egos are strong but joint ventures have been very common in the industry.

Don't focus on the product, it the making of the product they can't compete with, they could copy the drivetrain all they want and still go bankrupt. This is a battle for value. It's about offering more value by making the cars for less money. Manufacturing efficiency. Software efficiency. Travel efficiency. The consumer will follow the value.

Sure, some buyers will be fooled by the advertising and pay far too much but you need enough people willing to be that blind to value which is not something i would bet on.

 

[navguy12]

I'm still surprised that no legacy auto maker has thrown in the towel and attempted to license Tesla tech, software, drivetrain and/or FSD. I know egos are strong but joint ventures have been very common in the industry.

Wars have been fought just to save face.

 

[Paul_SF]

I can’t believe some people are complaining about the Y now…. The future most sold and most profitable car, EVER!

What it would take for a mod to step in and stop this nonsense?

 

[Lessmog]

I can’t believe some people are complaining about the Y now…. The future most sold and most profitable car, EVER!

What it would take for a mod to step in and stop this nonsense?

Y u ask?

 

[jhm]

I Am Not A Lawyer

Oh my, so I need a lawyer to explain it to me?

 

[Mengy]

As for the Model Y, it is the most boring of Teslas. I think that may be why Elon doesn't seem as excited about it. I own a Model Y, it is a great vehicle, but I do miss my old Model S. It will sell like crazy because it is so practical.

I love the MY, it's why I'm ordering a MY LR in a few months. It's the Tesla car most like my Subaru Crosstrek, and I love my Crosstrek. I value practicality and comfort over looks and flashiness or speed even.

I think Elon doesn't talk about the Y much because everything is going great with the Y, so he can focus on other more important stuff.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Fun fact : AAPL and TSLA are currently at 91% of their all time highs

 

[Rarity]

According to my source, Tesla is in talks to take a next step with a 12,000 ton Giga Casting Machine for a full body casting. The 8,000 ton casting machine for CT is already a done deal.

Very interesting. Thank you!

A point of clarification: when you say that the rear underbody part (RUP) and front underbody part (FUP) use machines up to 4500 tons, do you instead mean that they use machines up to 6000 tons? Aren't all of the Gigapresses that Tesla has already installed for the RUP and FUP of the 6000-ton variety?

I could very well imagine that a fair number of companies use presses of up to 4500 tons, but that Tesla has 80%+ of the orders for the 6000-ton and 8000-ton varieties.

Edit: Regarding the "secret sauce," and related to @jbcarioca 's posts, it may simply be that other companies are unwilling to commit to having a high scale of manufacturing to align with the economics of casting.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm still surprised that no legacy auto maker has thrown in the towel and attempted to license Tesla tech, software, drivetrain and/or FSD. I know egos are strong but joint ventures have been very common in the industry.

They're too blind and also too busy trying to negotiate with Apple to 'stay relevant'

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Um....where's my other 2% of macro fueled runup? Kenny Griffin owes me $16 a share tomorrow!

 

[The Accountant]

Um....where's my other 2% of macro fueled runup? Kenny Griffin owes me $16 a share tomorrow!

I live 3 miles from Citadel's offices. I can tape the IOU request to their door.

 

[Rarity]

Tesla has invested in several Gigapresses to make enormous rear castings for Model Y from Fremont, Shanghai, Grüneheide and Austin. They also are to be building Model Y in all four locations. Plus they're preparing for enormous front castings also.

The first deployment of structural battery packs is to be Model Y in Grüneheide and Austin, possibly Shanghai also.

Those are giant-sized commitments.

Please understand that Model Y is the definitive most scalable product Tesla has offered, even more so than was the Model 3.

What is your opinion of this specifically? E.g., (1) the use of large castings increases the rate of scaling, (2) that it makes the increased scale possible, (3) that it increases the economic benefit of scale, (4) that it allows for uniformity of product across multiple geographies.

 

[st_lopes]

So far, every analysis assumes EM pays Income Tax in Cali. It seems to me that's primary residence is now in Texas with a significantly lower rate. Can someone knowledgeable comment on that. THX

California will measure based on when the options were earned, usually based on a days present test. I’ve seen some really nasty outcomes for Canadians that travel in to California and happen to have RSUs or options vesting / exercising while they are in California.

I also know I’ve had to file California returns for as little as a few working days in the valley in a given year. Fortunately had treaty exemptions and didn’t execute any trades those days.

What would be the effect if the Board withdrew those option grants (or reached an agreement with Elon that he would never exercise them), and then issued new options of roughly equivalent value that vested in late 2022?

Other than California spending the next several years in fruitless litigation, of course…

Has been said, but likely smacked with tax evasion.

 

[avoigt]

Very interesting. Thank you!

A point of clarification: when you say that the rear underbody part (RUP) and front underbody part (FUP) use machines up to 4500 tons, do you instead mean that they use machines up to 6000 tons? Aren't all of the Gigapresses that Tesla has already installed for the RUP and FUP of the 6000-ton variety?

I could very well imagine that a fair number of companies use presses of up to 4500 tons, but that Tesla has 80%+ of the orders for the 6000-ton and 8000-ton varieties.

Tesla already uses a variety of smaller castings in Sparks and Fremont for a variety of applications. The RUB part is made with a 3 to 4,500 ton casting machine. For the CT, they are working on an 8,000 ton casting machine and 12,000 tons is the next level. I should have been more specific because I doubt the upper part of the vehicle will be cast as well. The 8,000 tons is not a done deal but they consider it and Tesla will be the only one who could lift that off. Time will tell

 

[bkp_duke]

12,000 ton casting machine possibly for the Semi?

 

[Rarity]

Tesla already uses a variety of smaller castings in Sparks and Fremont for a variety of applications. The RUB part is made with a 3 to 4,500 ton casting machine. For the CT, they are working on an 8,000 ton casting machine and 12,000 tons is the next level. I should have been more specific because I doubt the upper part of the vehicle will be cast as well. The 8,000 tons is not a done deal but they consider it and Tesla will be the only one who could lift that off. Time will tell

I added an edit to my original post. But again, to clarify, aren't all of the casting machines that we have seen in Fremont, Austin, Berlin, and Shanghai the OL 6100 CS model, which is a 6000-ton machine?