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Zach chooses his words carefully, as a CFO should, and specifically cited revenue recognition based on WHAT the buyer was promised AT THE TIME THEY BOUGHT IT.

That entire phrase would make no sense but for the fact that Tesla has sold a different set of features as "FSD" at different times- exactly as shown in the screen shots from Teslas own website. The post 3/19 set of features is much easier to deliver, and thus the revenue from that (which by now is most buyers, given fleet growth/timing) will be recognized much sooner.

If we apply Occam's razor to Zach's comments:

In the past, we had EAP and FSD. At that time, we made different commitments for the FSD product vs now, where the EAP and FSD product has been combined into one product.

As for level 4, it's silly to think Tesla would provide an unrestricted level 4 feature for $3k (when other car companies were selling TACC for $1-3k). Level 4 entails:

1) No one in driver's seat; a blind person can sleep in the back seat.
2) Tesla takes liability for any issues (car gets stuck) or accidents.

It's possible Tesla will never enable level 4 with hw3. Even at 2x human safety, it's unlikely Tesla will go beyond level 3.

Even if Tesla does get to level 4, it's likely *all* level 4 service will be through the Tesla Network. That means you'd have to use the network for all level 4 rides. Within the network, Tesla takes liability and provides the support needed to deal with issues. And you'd have to pay per mile / pay extra on top of FSD.
 
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One thing jumped out at me on the call... they had said on the shareholder call there was room for 50% growth at Fremont. Many seemed to take that to mean 600K present capacity -> 900K/1M future capacity. But on yesterday's call, it sounded like Zach said something more like "we built 430,000 cars in the last 12 months at Fremont and we believe we can grow that 50% in the future"... suggesting a target of more like 650K than 900K. I'm not clear whether that was truly what was intended... whether maybe Zach wanted to walk back a bit to avoid overpromising or whether perhaps it was taken wrong from the shareholder call to begin with. But I wouldn't count on a million cars from Fremont without gutting the place and starting over.

Still, if Fremont and Shanghai can do 1.5M between them by 2025, then the total 2025 numbers just depend on how many production lines they can get up and running at Austin and Berlin. It certainly seems like there's adequate real estate to reach 1-2M each, though of course it also depends on battery production and whether future expansion at Berlin continues to be slowed down by paperwork and public commentary and so on. Adding 500K production per year per factory for 3-4 years seems very aggressive, though I guess we'll see whether the next-generation factories and production processes are streamlined enough to do it.
 
Max-pain @ 830.
So likely Monday before we see any upward action.

You may be right but the upward action is coming based on what we heard on the earnings call.
To summarize the earnings call, it was:

- Demand caught us off guard, and
- Margins improved, and
- new Capacity is coming on board, and
- we will continue to print money (ok - I made that last one up . . . .but it's true😁)
 
You may be right but the upward action is coming based on what we heard on the earnings call.
To summarize the earnings call, it was:

- Demand caught us off guard, and
- Margins improved, and
- new Capacity is coming on board, and
- we will continue to print money (ok - I made that last one up . . . .but it's true😁)

Only thing I got caught off guard was the 25K car and battery constraint. ...

R&D center complete.
CATL building battery lines near Shanghai GF
even SR M3 using Lithium Iron Phosphate

So I think they already have a plan and we will see the Model Q on time.

+ I think MoC (master Of Coin) taught the TechnoKing how to sandbag ;)
MoC replies were so crisp and on topic.
 
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Tesla is disruption. The automotive industry, the fossil fuel industry, every driver’s job, every auto repair job, every car sales job, every collision center job, they are all in jeopardy. All of this before Tesla’s full bore entrance into artificial intelligence and the insurance industrpies. Tesla is changing the world at an astonishing pace — the world is still trying to have its first cup of coffee. There is an old say amongst electricians, “you can unscrew a lightbulb, but somethings can’t be…unscrewed.

Tesla‘s breakneck innovation and ingenuity is creating shockwaves; the realization that the genie is out of the bottle. The die cast. I’m not implying anything negative, only that Wall Street is nowhere near acceptance. They have taken years to even begin to understand “Tesla.” Imagine how long it will take them to understand and accept complete disruption.
 
Tesla is disruption. The automotive industry, the fossil fuel industry, every driver’s job, every auto repair job, every car sales job, every collision center job, they are all in jeopardy. All of this before Tesla’s full bore entrance into artificial intelligence and the insurance industrpies. Tesla is changing the world at an astonishing pace — the world is still trying to have its first cup of coffee. There is an old say amongst electricians, “you can unscrew a lightbulb, but somethings can’t be…unscrewed.

Tesla‘s breakneck innovation and ingenuity is creating shockwaves; the realization that the genie is out of the bottle. The die cast. I’m not implying anything negative, only that Wall Street is nowhere near acceptance. They have taken years to even begin to understand “Tesla.” Imagine how long it will take them to understand and accept complete disruption.

+ Insurance.

A week or so back EM tweeted that maybe Buffett should buy Tesla.
(Someone replied, that he wanted to but Bill Gates advised him to short :) )

.. Well he should before Geico get's hit hard :)
 
i have been lurking for years & have read most of your posts since then, accountant. i was going to start posting around the time curt renz was being blasted here for his positive opinion on gary black. if i recall correctly, gary exited his position only to re-buy @ $550-$600 and was given substantial grief for trading his shares in this manner. i hold gary black's views in high regard & thought about posting then, but i was just too busy to participate fully. i have some bullish opinions re: tsla that i will post about this year. but to answer your question, i find the tsla super bull echo chamber quite annoying. i love tsla, but i also love reasonable, informed discussion. the cummings appointment & the ridiculous echo chamber reaction got me to start posting.
Thanks - welcome . . .please feel free to comment on other aspects of Tesla.
 
Only thing I got caught off guard was the 25K car and battery constraint. ...

R&D center complete.
CATL building battery lines near Shanghai GF
even SR M3 using Lithium Iron Phosphate

So I think they already have a plan and we will see the Model Q on time.

+ I think MoC (master Of Coin) taught the TechnoKing how to sandbag ;)
MoC replies were so crisp and on topic.
When on stage at the Berlin Fair, you could see that Elon wanted to say something about the low priced model and had to catch himself. He said something like, "we shouldn't comment on cars that are not yet scheduled for production" but he clearly had some information he could have shared and almost shared.
 
As previously discussed here on Aug 29th, Tesla has confirmed that the new building in the NE corner of the Giga Shanghai plot is indeed the new China R&D Center: (image extracted from TSLA-Q3-2021-Quarterly-Update.pdf)

View attachment 723820

Cheers!

In case you missed it, its official now: Tesla China's new R&D facility is on the grounds of Giga Shanghai, in the NE corner. Its no coincidence that there are big earth works going on in the empty lot immediately to the East of the R&D Center. This could very well be the site of the Model 2 (Model 二) factory, which will have engineers and designers conveniently located right next door.


Ray4Tesla on Twitter: "Massive engineer/technician hiring is underway for Tesla R&D Center, offering over 100 job titles in 7 categories: 1/greater R&D Engineering 2/vehicle software 3/vehicle engineering 4/hardware design 5/powertrain&energy 6/material engineering 7/R&D recruitment. TBC https://t.co/bljosh5pHL" / Twitter

Cheers!
 
I used to think that getting the legacy automakers on board with EVs was essential. Earlier in Tesla's history, it was thought that perhaps Tesla's primary contribution would be to stimulate the larger car companies to manufacture EVs. Indeed, the Roadster helped motivate the development of the Chevy Volt and the Nissan LEAF.

Now, however, I'm thinking that mass EV adoption is possible if Tesla and newer upstarts (Chinese companies, Rivian, Lucid, etc.) simply bury the legacy companies. Tesla's ability to scale is only getting better. Perhaps Tesla could be producing many more than 20 million vehicles per year by 2030.

I'm glad you finally came around!

I'm getting so tired of people who STILL are apologetic for legacy auto and say we can't do it without them. IMO, legacy auto is a pile of trash. It's unfortunate for the auto and oil workers but they will retrain and find other jobs in industries that are actually relevant to where humanity is going, maybe even at Tesla or SpaceX. Jobs in the new energy industry are going to literally explode this decade.
 
In case you missed it, its official now: Tesla China's new R&D facility is on the grounds of Giga Shanghai, in the NE corner. Its no coincidence that there are big earth works going on in the empty lot immediately to the East of the R&D Center. This could very well be the site of the Model 2 (Model 二) factory, which will have engineers and designers conveniently located right next door.


Ray4Tesla on Twitter: "Massive engineer/technician hiring is underway for Tesla R&D Center, offering over 100 job titles in 7 categories: 1/greater R&D Engineering 2/vehicle software 3/vehicle engineering 4/hardware design 5/powertrain&energy 6/material engineering 7/R&D recruitment. TBC https://t.co/bljosh5pHL" / Twitter

Cheers!

This is awesome. For Tesla to carry out their vision they will need Giga Skunkworks on every continent harnessing the brainpower of the world's brightest and most creative thinkers!
 
If we apply Occam's razor to Zach's comments:

In the past, we had EAP and FSD. At that time, we made different commitments for the FSD product vs now

Right. FSD was a different promised set of features pre 3/19

Thanks for realizing I was right :)

As for level 4, it's silly to think Tesla would provide an unrestricted level 4 feature for $3k

They didn't.

It was 3k on top of the 5k required for EAP. S0 8k total.

And of course you can scroll back a couple pages and read where they literally promised that in writing to pre 3/19 buyers.


Level 4 entails:

1) No one in driver's seat; a blind person can sleep in the back seat.
2) Tesla takes liability for any issues (car gets stuck) or accidents.

This is factually wrong.

SAE levels say nothing whatsoever regarding legal liability.

Tesla did promise the car would be able to drive almost anywhere without ANY action from anyone in the drivers seat though.

Which is literally level 4

L3 and below requires action from the person in the drivers seat.

L4 does not.


I'd suggest you take further discussion of this to the FSD forums though, not really relevant here.