My evening:
View attachment 724455
I must say that ATH, Dave and Rob and Teslaquila makes a perfect evening
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
DittoSigh. Well that's it then, I was planning to order a red MY LR in January 2022 but these constant price increases throughout 2021 have made me question whether or not the price was worth it to me, and now with this latest increase the frugal side of me simply can't justify it any more.
Could I afford it? Probably. Doesn't mean I like spending that much money on a car though, it's just too high for me to feel good about it now. Prices will come down in time and that would lower the trade in value of my MY if I bought it at these very inflated prices.
As a TSLA investor I'm happy about these price increases, but as a potential buyer they worry me, because I'm sure other potential buyers out there are reacting the same way I am too.
I've been on the fence for MY. Knowing the Fed rebate was looming, wanting to wait for 4860s and watching the price keep ticking up....I've been a deer in headlights. This last tick up has just become the final straw. I will likely lease a polluting ICE beast for 3 years now instead. Shame that Tesla, while moving at such speed, can't keep up with demand. This move should definitely help their supply/demand balance a bit.
For me, there are other issues compounding this decision....My Southern California Electricity Gouging company is removing me from my original NEM plan and my cheapest kwh pricing is going up 50% (my bill will triple) and MY is a bit small for the family still. I'm quite disappointed. But, hey, my stock is rocking!
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Could Tesla buy Elon’s shares?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Nevada Becomes 16th Clean Cars State and Model for Others
Nevada became the 16th state in the nation to adopt clean cars today, after the Legislative Commission approved the Clean Cars Nevada program in a bipartisan vote. The vote marked the final approval step after the Nevada State Environmental Commission...
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
In no fault states like Michigan, each party pays for their own repairs regardlesss of who caused it. Then there are non-collision comprehensive losses to protect for.
In general, there is a fiscal liability difference between a car that is on the road being used and one that has been totaled or otherwise not able to be in an accident. This translates to the need to have a payment due to exposure. Otherwise, Tesla would need to front charge buyers with all future insurance payments based on expected crash rate over the life of the vehicle.
For FSD miles tied to robotaxi use, the rate per mile could cover insurance during operation. Same if it is a monthly subscription (you driving would still need a policy).
correct, occasionally confusion reigns (definitely here on my part)
E6
i am mentally nailed to the wall by much younger minds w/o ganglia calcification
<screams “uncle”!”>, having read a bunch of pages skewering my mathematical fauxpas’s
i deserve being in the dunking booth and ice water baths
mea culpa
Lol, respectfully (?) Jonas couldn't find his 'AJ' if it had a string tied to it. No, what happened is that about a year ago, MS fired all their auto-analysts on AJ's teams and hired a bunch of tech analysts to redo their rating of TSLA. Its taken months, but they are slowly coming around to what we knew for years.... and, the new 'tech' guys read TMC (makes their jobs ezr)
@Artful Dodger, you are a great contributor to TMC and I enjoy your many posts. But this one was the Hope Diamond of Artuful Dodger humorous posts!
Watching AJ talk on CNBC videos always makes me want to ridicule the guy (much like seeing Ted Cruz raises the urge to punch him in the ... well you know.., but this post was immolation with high octane truth. Many thanks!
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I finally caught on to Hobbes' complaint with what I wrote above. I was assuming e7 meant the exponent was 7 and base is 10.
That may have been your intent (it was mine) but as he pointed out, it could just as easily mean e^7 where e is Euler's number
And to make matters worse, trans-oceanic semantics makes
10E6 = 1E6
Why ? Because Hobbes reads 10E7 as '10 raised to the 6th power, or 10^6'
While I read 1E6 as '1 followed by six zeros, or 1 * 10^6 = 10^6'
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I agree, time to call it a day. And to be honest I only brought it up in the first place because I was curious if 'teslanaire' started at 10M
Cheers !
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The Accountant
Active Member
Maybe I should be posting this in the Technical Analysis thread but I thought the observation might be interesting for the broader member group here:
When we hit ATHs back in January, the Highs for the day did not hold at the Close. There were drops of $20-$40 often:
This time we are holding our highs. The Close of the day are off $1-$6 from the High
I know nothing of Technical Analysis but this appears to me to be good news. It runs higher?
When we hit ATHs back in January, the Highs for the day did not hold at the Close. There were drops of $20-$40 often:
This time we are holding our highs. The Close of the day are off $1-$6 from the High
I know nothing of Technical Analysis but this appears to me to be good news. It runs higher?
it is indeed very bullish in my opinion. This looks like the only reason it is not going any higher is big buyers dont want it higher than a certain technical threshold that might trigger a sell signal. In other words: the stock is not getting rejected at any resistance level. Buyers are buying any dip. it is melting up. We also call it “riding the Bollinger band up” which is very very bullish. Ok I’ll stop drooling now.
also, although technically TSLA is not investment grade yet, any fund manager with half a brain must know where this train is going. They must be slowly getting on it even before that.
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I hope someone who knows Technical Analysis pipes in. Thank you for asking.
Before HODL, I used to trade on the "do not experience loss" philosophy (sort of day trading).
It meant to "never even try to sell at the peak." Sell early while it is still going up. If you piece together all the up ramp portions where you own, with no down ramps whatsoever, you do OK.
If other people are doing what I used to do, "holding the high" at the end of the day means someone thinks it is still going up. That aggregate, or composite, someone is able to influence price.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Idiom Police: Ya busted!
"I'll be back" to check on your 20th Century vernacular... here in the FUTURE!
Cheers!
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
That puts you in good company, but it does remind me of a story ...
My father is a theoretical mathematician with a long resume. Years ago he found out that his technically uneducated Aunt was making money in the stock market and he had no doubt he could do better. He spent 6 months studying the market ( 1/2 a PhD in his years) and then gave up, having concluded it was impossible to reliably make money from the sole application of math.
It is a long-standing, yearly TMC tradition since I started investing two years ago (almost to the day) that I review how the previous year was for me.
I spend at least one hour each day studying things Tesla, main staple being Tesla Daily and TMC. You can’t rely on this forum only; you have to do your own research too. So, inspired by TMC, I recently watched the documentary The Accountant. The insightful posts of this man on this forum deservedly receive many upvotes, but I wonder whether there might be members that do it out of fear that he might show up on their doorstep. Don’t worry, I think he is a nice guy.
TMC is a valuable source of information, although I have to admit that I don’t understand everything. What I think I do understand is “the wheel”. TMC members who made a big profit with their TSLA shares buy a new Tesla, as a result of which Tesla makes more profit, which in turn causes the stock price to rise and thus these members make even more profit. Rinse and repeat.
While he is not a mod and can’t do anything about it, my cardiologist agrees with me that some people post a bit carelessly on this forum. By way of example, CorneliusXX recently wrote: “Imagine selling your shares now”. My heart almost froze when I did that.
The future is bright. Last year I could report that Elon made me unpoor. This year I decided not to risk that my heart gives up prematurely and that I would have wasted the only life I have with work, work, work. I quit my job in May, which in hindsight was also a good thing as I turned out to be overworked.
It is risky and comes with stress of its own having to live a couple of years without money coming in - especially to do so while still in 6 figure $TSLA territory - but I’m frugal and I think it will work (my house has been paid off). The recent posts on agile development supported my view that innovation is really engrained at Tesla (professionally I’ve witnessed all too often that innovation is a battle within companies) and Tesla will not collapse should Elon no longer lead.
Cathy even dangled a modest bungalow in a warm country before my eyes for when I’m officially old, should I dare to take that step but that will take a few years and is out of the question as long as my dad is alive anyway.
I’m in the process of changing my will should my heart unionize and go on a permanent strike. Most of my net worth will go to a foundation dedicated to implementing renewable energy solutions, and spent in line with ideas I have. (For example, a Tesla semi could be bought and rented out for a week at a low rates so truck companies can try it out and not spew out CO2 while they use it, hopefully resulting in accelerated adoption. The rent money can also be spent on renewable energy, so it is a double action plan. The same goes for a solar parking lot, where the solar reduces CO2 output and the money resulting from the sale of power can be put to good use.) The mission must continue until the goal is reached, even if a soldier dies.
Kudos for making it this far. Expect my next report in October 2022.
I spend at least one hour each day studying things Tesla, main staple being Tesla Daily and TMC. You can’t rely on this forum only; you have to do your own research too. So, inspired by TMC, I recently watched the documentary The Accountant. The insightful posts of this man on this forum deservedly receive many upvotes, but I wonder whether there might be members that do it out of fear that he might show up on their doorstep. Don’t worry, I think he is a nice guy.
TMC is a valuable source of information, although I have to admit that I don’t understand everything. What I think I do understand is “the wheel”. TMC members who made a big profit with their TSLA shares buy a new Tesla, as a result of which Tesla makes more profit, which in turn causes the stock price to rise and thus these members make even more profit. Rinse and repeat.
While he is not a mod and can’t do anything about it, my cardiologist agrees with me that some people post a bit carelessly on this forum. By way of example, CorneliusXX recently wrote: “Imagine selling your shares now”. My heart almost froze when I did that.
The future is bright. Last year I could report that Elon made me unpoor. This year I decided not to risk that my heart gives up prematurely and that I would have wasted the only life I have with work, work, work. I quit my job in May, which in hindsight was also a good thing as I turned out to be overworked.
It is risky and comes with stress of its own having to live a couple of years without money coming in - especially to do so while still in 6 figure $TSLA territory - but I’m frugal and I think it will work (my house has been paid off). The recent posts on agile development supported my view that innovation is really engrained at Tesla (professionally I’ve witnessed all too often that innovation is a battle within companies) and Tesla will not collapse should Elon no longer lead.
Cathy even dangled a modest bungalow in a warm country before my eyes for when I’m officially old, should I dare to take that step but that will take a few years and is out of the question as long as my dad is alive anyway.
I’m in the process of changing my will should my heart unionize and go on a permanent strike. Most of my net worth will go to a foundation dedicated to implementing renewable energy solutions, and spent in line with ideas I have. (For example, a Tesla semi could be bought and rented out for a week at a low rates so truck companies can try it out and not spew out CO2 while they use it, hopefully resulting in accelerated adoption. The rent money can also be spent on renewable energy, so it is a double action plan. The same goes for a solar parking lot, where the solar reduces CO2 output and the money resulting from the sale of power can be put to good use.) The mission must continue until the goal is reached, even if a soldier dies.
Kudos for making it this far. Expect my next report in October 2022.
petit_bateau
Active Member
In the 3Q-21 report we got a bit of an insight into the blend mix and ramp rate in the energy division with this statement,
"Energy storage deployments increased by 71% YoY in Q3, mainly driven by strong Megapack deployments. We recently announced our new Megapack factory with a capacity of 40 GWh, which compares to total Megapack deployments of 3 GWh in the last 12 months. We are very excited about the broader potential of this product."
Previously my best estimates of past delivery blend, and future was this,
So given that 4,598 MWh storage have been deployed in last four quarters, and that 3,000 of these were Megapack, this suggests that 2/3 of the blend is going into the Megapack.
Anecdotally we hear it is very hard to get hold of Powerwalls. Difficult in the USA, nigh-on impossible outside USA. I wonder if Tesla are throttling Powerwalls to pace US-solar as they perhaps consider it easier to regain lost market share in the residential (domestic) storage segment if they cede it now / but more difficult to regain segment share in the utility-scale segment if they cede it now.
Also Tesla may be diverting most cells into automotive, especially until those LFP patents expire in several months at which time the Megapack factory in Lathrop, CA should be ramping towards the 40 GWh capacity they are stating. I had that as a 2025 forecast for the Megapack (36 GWh) so if they can hit that earlier that would be great. But I wonder what is happening to Powerwall production (in New York if I recall correctly) which appears to be suffering. And Powerpack seems difficult - not high enough volume to automate, but probably requiring quite a lot of touch in the sales process.
Does anyone else have more insight into these ?
"Energy storage deployments increased by 71% YoY in Q3, mainly driven by strong Megapack deployments. We recently announced our new Megapack factory with a capacity of 40 GWh, which compares to total Megapack deployments of 3 GWh in the last 12 months. We are very excited about the broader potential of this product."
Previously my best estimates of past delivery blend, and future was this,
So given that 4,598 MWh storage have been deployed in last four quarters, and that 3,000 of these were Megapack, this suggests that 2/3 of the blend is going into the Megapack.
Anecdotally we hear it is very hard to get hold of Powerwalls. Difficult in the USA, nigh-on impossible outside USA. I wonder if Tesla are throttling Powerwalls to pace US-solar as they perhaps consider it easier to regain lost market share in the residential (domestic) storage segment if they cede it now / but more difficult to regain segment share in the utility-scale segment if they cede it now.
Also Tesla may be diverting most cells into automotive, especially until those LFP patents expire in several months at which time the Megapack factory in Lathrop, CA should be ramping towards the 40 GWh capacity they are stating. I had that as a 2025 forecast for the Megapack (36 GWh) so if they can hit that earlier that would be great. But I wonder what is happening to Powerwall production (in New York if I recall correctly) which appears to be suffering. And Powerpack seems difficult - not high enough volume to automate, but probably requiring quite a lot of touch in the sales process.
Does anyone else have more insight into these ?
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is pattern is generally a Hammer Candlestick but it doesn't really fit today's setup. Hammer's usually signal a reversal after at least 3 days of downward SP movement. Not the case right now.
Further, TSLA isn't moving on the Technicals right now, its moving on the Fundamentals. Mid-quarter, once the news has set in and people have positioned themselves, then I'd expect Technical trading to start to again drive SP action.
Cheers!
Yeah...we need a fix for this pronto!
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