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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I just can't bring myself to spend £92k on a family car though, it's not about affordability anymore, I just can't do it! I've decided on a budget of £55k and to be honest, even that is freaking me out a little, it's hard work sometimes being a Yorkshire man lol!! I might rethink my budget for the roadster in a few years time...
I feel the same way for the Y at £60k. Living in the centre of the city I'll probably only drive it 20 times a year - but Tesla has been so good to me that it feels like the right thing to do. And those 20 times a year will be great fun.
 
Nice


Give us your impressions!
It’s good…really good, but as witnessed by countless YouTube videos, it’s a little jerky and hesitant stopping and making turns. I had it drive me to and from a local hardware store (it was closed), and it did so without any interruptions. It didn’t park or anything, but it took me to the front of the store and stopped. Similarly on the return trip, it stopped in the street at the end on my driveway. It was about a 10 mile round trip.

FSD has come a long way. And to think they started from scratch following the breakup with Mobileye. Tesla is an incredible company. I’ll continue to HODL.

Thanks to this forum and all its great contributors for dispelling the FUD. What an incredible resource!
 
This is going slightly OT but since this is Sunday *and* it's a special weekend .. adding some details for those apparently interested:

1/ the first huge profit making "discovery" was made by mathematically trained Martin Leibowitz at Salomon Brothers in the 70's - arbitraging bonds along the yield curve. This gave rise to Salomon Bros eminence in Wall St at the time. Conceptually this yield curve arbitrage is elementary math, but you had to be trading bonds to realize the profits.

2/ Ed Thorp, initially an established "pure" mathematician famously applied math to beat the casinos regularly in the 60's, then moved on to the stock market, successfully too. Sadly, now retired he's all in dumb Omaha Buffet's BRK.A
For kicks I've put in attachment his neat intro to Kelly's criteria for optimum allocation of investments in favorable conditions. I must confess, as a mathematician by training, I've done more seat of the pants allocation ("bet more the more certain you are", which is probably quantifiable/ provable .. anyone interested please go ahead do the math formalisation, my todo pile is way too large already)

3/ About Simons, only the inner circle of partners has access to his "special sauce" fund (it is not scalable presumably) and no one has yet cracked it that I know of. As to copying whatever the rest of his funds do, good luck on that: he employs an army of super smart quants, and my take is that they come up with multiple strategies that can be short lived, but are of course implemented all the time.

Now back to my pile of todos, most fun one is getting the hang of the Travis finger picking - this YouTube video of Paul Davies has me totally sold - the relevance to the investment thread is that it's best to keep your main holdings in TSLA stock (the bass line, possibly moving, aka possibly TSLA LEAPS), and improvise on top with the rest (the melodic line)
There have also been numerous hedge funds run by mathematicians that did not do well.

Since you mention Salomon Brothers I am reminded of famed Long Term Capital Management fund, run by Meriwether the former head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers and Nobel prize winners Myron Scholes and Robert Merton. LTCM collapsed spectacularly.

I guess it's all a game of probabilities and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose?
 
I feel the same way for the Y at £60k. Living in the centre of the city I'll probably only drive it 20 times a year - but Tesla has been so good to me that it feels like the right thing to do. And those 20 times a year will be great fun.

This is me, but I live in the country and would drive a MY pretty much daily. Plus I love long road trips.

I was going to order a LR MY in January but they keep raising the prices and Frugal Mengy doesn't want to spend that much money on a "car". Yet I'm a frakking Teslanaire, so one side of me thinks I'm being silly while the other side thinks I'm being financially prudent.

I think I came into money too quickly thanks to TSLA and I haven't adjusted my ways of thinking to compensate yet.... :p
 
Yes I think the first delivered 3 was already on AP 2.5?

Do you see a kind of washed out red (looks almost like light pink) on the pictures coming from the side cameras? That's how AP 2.0 cameras look.
@jschwefel If you see blue sky in the sentry video, you have new cameras. Original were 3*grey,red.

I though they only added Blue, but this article says full color:
Camera Upgrade – TeslaTap
 
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Your dad was wrong.
This was a very fascinating book

From what I've seen, markets are roughly:
  • 1/3 data (good companies grow in value),
  • 1/3 emotion (is this forum all logic?? Gimme a break! Or the bears for that matter), and
  • 1/3 luck (e.g. COVID, Elon dying, etc.).
From this I conclude it's impossible to consistently predict individual stocks in the short term - you can't for example be sure which emotions people will spend with (there are as many broke day traders as there are rich ones, I believe). All we know is that, the longer the horizon, the more reliably we can expect the market to rise.

HODL.
 
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This statement is such a meme but it is absolutely true.

Once you break through that first million, the second and third just kind of show up and you have no idea how that happened.
Is it because of something similar to what we've been saying for Tesla growth; it is not linear but exponential? Compounded growth in an investment portfolio is exponential and we spend a long time in that boring flattish initial section to reach the first million.

One's earning power during the first million phase is also typically less than the later years.
 
Indeed !

About 12-years for the first million, and just over 2-years for the second million.
View attachment 724948


This is insightful.

Time for a negative post on Tesla, to keep the 7 positive to 1 negative ratio close.

Telsa Owners are like Buick Owners, Full of Confirmation Bias.

For years, if you looked at the reliability and initial quality data of Buick and Oldsmobile nameplate twins (made in the same factory - only difference the badge) the Buicks always scored better. And it was not a little bit better, statistically significantly better.

Buick people cared abut how they looked. And were full of confirmation bias. If they made a decision, it was a good decision. They certainly would not build a monument to their mistakes. They were leaders, conscious of appearances and they never made mistakes. They were also higher income for some reason.

I think it is pretty clear why the statistics on Buicks were skewed positive.

Telsa Owners are like Buick Owners, Full of Confirmation Bias.

This is an observation, that some may deem negative. I took it as my one-of-seven opportunity.

The reason it is important and related to the table above is:

There are now a million more Tesla owners than there were 2 years ago. [not allowing for multi- Tesla families, so one significant figure calculation here]... Perhaps twice as many as 2 years ago...

What would one expect all these additional Buick owner like Tesla owners to do to the price of TSLA stock?
 
From what I've seen, markets are roughly 1/3 data (good companies grow in value),1/3 emotion (is this forum all logic?? Gimme a break! Or the bears for that matter), and 1/3 luck (e.g. COVID, Elon NOT dying, etc.).

Dude - there are some things you JUST DON'T EVER SAY.

And that is one of them. 5 million other examples and you picked that. You lost your mind?
 
I was highly leveraged with options starting with the 420 tweet and into and through the promised ridiculously fast M3 ramp. If Tesla had executed at the time and TSLA had run the way it finally did in 2020, I would be a centateslanaire.

Instead I suffered margin calls, heavy losses and almost got wiped out. Lost everything I had made in that first brilliant run in 2013 and more.

I am privileged because I centered myself and was able to recapitalise and leverage up again, although not as aggressively. Regardless, TSLA made me back all my losses plus, plus and it is still cranking, baby!

My story has parallels. I also bought a lot of TSLA (although thankfully not options!) solely on the 420 tweet. When it became clear that was a bust, I could either keep the extra shares or sell at a loss. Partly because I didn't want to admit that I erred, and partly because I thought that over time Tesla would correct my mistake, I kept the shares.

I ended up selling most of them for a tidy profit to 'rebalance' my portfolio and to stop my wife from badgering me. Nowadays I periodically remind her that was a D.teslanaire choice.

Bottom line: Despite the best attempts by the two of us to choose wrong, TSLA has done very well for us.