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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
8,061
35,430
Philadelphia, PA
Everyone is actually losing ground to Tesla, not catching up. The is going to become crystal clear in 2022 when Tesla has further production ramp which no one else is going to have. It's almost comical at this point.

Losing ground because Tesla is now in a sprint and they're at the bottom of the Manayunk Wall. They were 5 years behind up til recently, and have been ~7 years behind since 2018. At a certain point it felt like they weren't too far back, but that was just because everyone was climbing a steep hill. Turns out Tesla was nearing the top and is now nearly over it.

Now that Tesla is blasting up the S-curve, the lead will again become much more apparent as we head toward 2023-25 and the inevitable shakeout/bloodbath. Many many players will die on the wall.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
8,061
35,430
Philadelphia, PA
You got me.
(That is why I write "eyeballing" the charts.) I don't know enough to have reasons for the Price. But my eyeball Max-pain Number is a lot closer than the printed Max-pain price quite often.
Now educate me... I figured the "Volume" was how much was wrapped up in deals. Whereas since the "open interest" is "open" it is what is being offered...like an "open" contract isn't as secured.
I'm not more certain than you actually. My guess is that volume is simply that, the number of times contracts at that strike that changed hands during market hours. Without access to the actual data on how many new positions were opened, there's no way of knowing if that netted out to added contracts or fewer total outstanding contracts.
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,969
45,303
Michigan
You got me.
(That is why I write "eyeballing" the charts.) I don't know enough to have reasons for the Price. But my eyeball Max-pain Number is a lot closer than the printed Max-pain price quite often.
Now educate me... I figured the "Volume" was how much was wrapped up in deals. Whereas since the "open interest" is "open" it is what is being offered...like an "open" contract isn't as secured.
Open is total contracts (roughly like total shares)
Volume is the number of transactions (like shares traded)
Writing a contract contracts adds 1 to each.
Buying to close adds 1 to volume and subtracts 1 from open interest.
Buying and selling a contract adds 2 to volume and 0 to open interest.
...
 

Darkfox021

Member
Apr 8, 2019
150
629
USA
Honestly can someone tell me what Electric of any kind I can order today and get delivered in the next 6 months?
Bolt - Likely
Hummer - Nope. Will they even start delivering in next 6 months. Has anyone heard about them getting close to starting production?
Lyriq - Nope. Will it even make it in 2022?

What else? They dont make the Volt any longer. So as far as I know they dont have any PHEVs.
AFAIK, Mach-E.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
10,593
92,247
Maple Falls, WA
fcyajbaweakoq6k-jpeg.726696



The choice of X axis is important.
The listing of price is important.
The grouping of "other models" with no legend is wise.
The Y axis label is very good.
The step resolution that shows distribution fill on the ID is useful.

The ability to look at (change in cumulative volume)/dt, change in volume per unit time, differences is most important. Linear Y scale makes that possible. Tesla is 2X?

There's something fishy about that chart. And after staring at it for a couple minutes I figured it out. See if you can.

They cherry-picked! Didn't include any of the Tesla-killers!

/s
 

madodel

X at the end of a rainbow
Supporting Member
Apr 6, 2015
2,801
11,846
Poconos, NE Pennsylvania, United States
Camp out at 1070? @jhm
Who's bring the marshmallows and Hershey bars? I'll bring the graham crackers. I'm quite happy it is just waffling below $1100. I'd like to end the year where I'm at right now or a slowly higher, without things tanking. We can push through $2k when Berlin and Austin are going full speed and we know the next Giga locations.
 

madodel

X at the end of a rainbow
Supporting Member
Apr 6, 2015
2,801
11,846
Poconos, NE Pennsylvania, United States
There's something fishy about that chart. And after staring at it for a couple minutes I figured it out. See if you can.

They cherry-picked! Didn't include any of the Tesla-killers!

/s
Just wait until Toyota comes out with their Hydrogen Combustion engines in 5-10-100 years.

Toyota testing hydrogen combustion engines in race cars Toyota says it's testing hydrogen combustion engines in race cars as it works toward using the technology in commercial products

They will 🚀 past Tesla for sure.
 

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
20,194
25,800
Texas
2021 Tesla Model X Refresh - First Look | OCDetailing


Congrats to all the Longs who are in the long, long X-queue... :)

Cheers!
Short version of video: I looked and looked and found almost no physically differences to the seats and the exterior. Now I am going through each of the options on the screen (helpful if you are new to Tesla). Extra: Competition is coming, Tesla needs to watch out.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,954
150,447
Canada
Since Monday's big jump, MMs moves seem intended to limit intraday gains to the 'step-up' in SP that was acheived by the Opening:

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2021-10-28.14-15.png


Combined with heavy volumes seen in both After-hrs and Pre-market sessions, this indicates to me that delta-hedging by MMs is happening outside the Main session, and they are fine with a daily 2-3% rise in SP, but don't want it to run away.

Not Advice.

Cheers!
 
Last edited:

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,954
150,447
Canada
Short version of video: I looked and looked and found almost no physically differences to the seats and the exterior. Now I am going through each of the options on the screen (helpful if you are new to Tesla). Extra: Competition is coming, Tesla needs to watch out.

Yeah, its almost like he has OCD and only looks at the cosmetics... :p

But we did get an good techie video from @Ingineer today:

Tesla Teardowns - Why is there a CLOCKSPRING?!?

Cheers!
 

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
1,399
11,594
Terra
Who's bring the marshmallows and Hershey bars? I'll bring the graham crackers. I'm quite happy it is just waffling below $1100. I'd like to end the year where I'm at right now or a slowly higher, without things tanking. We can push through $2k when Berlin and Austin are going full speed and we know the next Giga locations.
Why wait?

The holiday season is approaching and a higher SP under the tree suits me dandy. 😁
 
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Discoducky

P100DL, 2021 M3, 4 CT reservations and counting
Supporting Member
Dec 25, 2011
4,098
11,838
My mountain
My post is actually separate from any opinion on other auto maker's growth.

I'm talking about the cold hard facts here. Just to keep pace with Tesla, everyone needs to be growing at 3-4X what they current are doing. Considering the fact that Tesla is set for another year of 75-100% growth in deliveries, the competition is going to fall drastically behind by the end of 2022. If the competition's growth rates stay where they're at throughout 2022, they'll then need to have 6-8X Tesla's growth rate % just to keep pace in 2023. The longer this goes on, the larger the gap becomes.

Losing ground because Tesla is now in a sprint and they're at the bottom of the Manayunk Wall. They were 5 years behind up til recently, and have been ~7 years behind since 2018. At a certain point it felt like they weren't too far back, but that was just because everyone was climbing a steep hill. Turns out Tesla was nearing the top and is now nearly over it.

Now that Tesla is blasting up the S-curve, the lead will again become much more apparent as we head toward 2023-25 and the inevitable shakeout/bloodbath. Many many players will die on the wall.
This and this! Spot on!
 

jhm

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2014
9,893
37,262
Atlanta, GA
You could argue that Hertz is getting a de-facto rebate by locking in the price now in a (a) generally high-inflation environment and (b) when Teslas specifically are in high demand.
Such a deal may become quite unlikely in the near future.

Tesla could have chosen to deliver the Teslas to Hertz at whatever is the going rate when taking actual delivery.
I aggree that such a move would have been even more hardcore than given them no rebate, which is seen as hardcore now.

I predict that this Hertz deal, aside from the many strategic advantages, will be seen as very good in 1-2 years, purely from a price stand-point.

Tesla could choose to stagger the next huge deal for either Hertz or another corporation in delivery chunks or installments, or some such method, in order to take into account the high likelyhood of rising prices. The buying company would then either pay the going rate at time of delivery or decline delivery and payment both - their choice.

Above approach may seem like harsh terms. But Hertz may be the canary in the coal mine, waking up traditional thinkers.
Harsh deals may become more normal as autonomy inches closer toward becomming more promising, trustworthy and eventually full release.
(With the traditional disclaimer that we don't yet know if self-driving is truly possible)

And when the Kraken is released (Robotaxi cababillity) many companies like Hertz will line up and prostrate themselves and accept whatever terms Elon and Tesla deem fit to offer them.
For without Teslas their future will be grim - or none.
Yes, locking a price on an order which may take up to 14 months is a good deal, but it is the same deal extended to any buyer. The pace at which the order is filled could be agreed to mutually beneficial terms. The logistics of both companies is improved if their is a steady pace of order fulfillment. Indeed, for the sake of private buyers it may be beneficial to pace out the Hertz order rather than making private buyers wait until the Hertz order is completely filled. So the deal can be fundamentally fair to all parties, Tesla, Hertz, and other buyers.

Yes, Tesla could impose other limitation like limiting the number of vehicle that get priced at certain level. But that would make pricing less transparent and potential less equitable, offering different terms to different types of buyers. It also presumes that Tesla knows that it wants to raise prices in the future. I'm not so sure Tesla operates that way. My sense is that Tesla adjusts the price as motivations for the change present themselves.
 

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