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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Nocturnal

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Aug 23, 2018
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36,756
Deepening Crisis!
I would argue that they do indeed need superchargers in the Australian interior. The difference between that and not having supercharges in North Dakota is that in the US you can divert 100 miles or so south and still have a well populated transcontinental supply of superchargers. In Australia they do not. They simply can not get from one side of their country to the other. An interior route North-South and East-West I think would be critical to illustrating to the general public the viability of Tesla and its superchargers.

That all being said, I do not live there so perhaps I am putting words in their mouths. If that is the case, by all means, please correct me.

Dan
I was thinking a string along whatever major route goes through the middle. Maybe I'm wrong, but the way I see SC infrastructure is that you have chargers every 150 miles along the main route, and that gives you about 2 hours of range north or south of that route to get people to their destination.
 

Remus

Active Member
Apr 14, 2016
1,381
6,594
California
Actually, many of them will. They'll have 110V 15 amp.

People who buy cheap cars are often renters *in houses* or in *one-story* apartment buildings -- living in sprawlsville. Most of these have outdoor 110 outlets, and I know people who've thrown extension cords out the window.

You're right that there's another group who don't have parking spaces next to their apartments.
This is the exactly the reason I argue that Tesla can't do this alone. We need many many EVs on the road to stimulate investment on charging infrastructure. When half of the residential parking spaces have chargers, the EV market truely becomes the car market.
 
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9837264723849

Member
Aug 24, 2014
990
4,352
France
This would be a good update. One of my (many) favorite things about driving my wife’s Model 3 is I don’t have to lean forward to reach the screen. It’s a small thing but makes a big difference.
What could Tesla do with a Model S refresh that makes it attractive but requires the least rework?

A few ideas of mine (NB: I never owned a car, let alone a Tesla)

Easiest and most expected features
- horizontal, floating, bezel-less screen
- smaller, embedded instrument cluster
- single vent air conditioning
- better center console
- door storage
- bigger glove box (with remote controlled opening)
- higher quality material (no more fingerprint-collecting piano black deco)

Things that might be harder but welcomed
- more comfortable seats and steering wheel
- nicer interior lightning
- better sound system
- self closing doors
- adjustable head restraints for rear seats
- power frunk liftgate

Impossible but desired?
- more backseat headroom and higher seating position
- shorter and lower hood for better view of the road (also lower dashboard, thanks to a smaller IC)
- thinner pillars

Unlikely but possible
- 120 KWh battery pack with 2170 cells (Elon said multiple times they wouldn't offer more than 100 Kwh but who knows)
- OLED screen for true night mode
- HUD (replacing the IC and with night vision?)
- auto-orientable screen (if no passenger, turn floating screen toward driver)
- 360° view of car surrounding (instead of the rear camera)
- electrochromic mirrors
- chrome delete option (cf. Model Y)
 

2virgule5

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Dec 6, 2013
667
1,926
Union county NJ
I remember in conference call hearing Musk speak about decreasing times that cars take from order to delivery. I have experienced this first hand. I ordered model3 and in 2 days had delivery scheduled for 6 days from order date. I assumed car was one that was refused or financing fell through but no they actually tracked it for me and was in transit to arrive day or 2 before delivery. Only one data point and fully optioned but given my experience with 5 previous tesla cars- shocking

Same happened last November when I ordered my PM3, literally got it delivered 4 days after ordering so obviously they had inventory (or already plenty of in transit cars).

Closer to now, anecdotal data point follow-up on my Monday night order of an LR-RWD (white, black interior, 18'): received VIN by text the following day -(a very high number 313XXX that tops Bloomberg VINs) but no delivery date yet ... Will check when it was manufactured but would not be surprised if in 'March'.

(funny enough you click the link in the SMS to finish entering delivery info and you get error 504 page not found; also VIN not yet visible on my account either way so yeah, Tesla & communication & software :rolleyes:)
 
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AndyH

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jul 30, 2018
235
2,275
Sweden
Or you can support Fully Charged. They're informative, well-meaning, forward thinking and funny. I wish they were more popular than the stupid petrolheads, but in a world where making a quick buck is all that matters, it's no surprise the most advertised and broadcasted TV shows are a promoter of fossil fuels.
Yes, they need more support! Already got mine.:) Nice that they're doing it live in Texas as well in September. Hopefully Tesla's moronic problems in Texas are solved before then!
 

M3Rider

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Oct 3, 2018
1,508
7,700
CO
I'm glad that they didn't raise the SR+ price too much. 37,500 is the sweet spot, considering people may buy options, including the high margin Autopilot options. It's a no brainer to get this over the base 35k. The ASP and margins on the SR+ with options should be pretty good, and will likely be the bread and butter for Tesla.
Checked this morning and Y prices were the same. Checked now and my AWD is $2.5k more.
Unless prices change again, I will consider this my early adopter discount ;)

Another thing I'm wondering-
Seems 3 AWD went up $1.5k, but Y AWD $2.5k.
Can this be a sign that they are seeing too many Y orders and try to anti-sell?
 
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Mobius484

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Supporting Member
Oct 21, 2016
443
1,867
Coeur d'Alene, ID
I keep my car in my driveway. I wish there was a way to auto preheat at a certain time. I don’t think the SR will catch on in the northeast, especially with no AWD. Thankfully NJ has pretty high income and we don’t have sales tax on EVs, so LR is still a steal. Still seeing a ton more S/X rather than 3s in my area. Would be great to have a MR AWD version

OT-
FWIW:I park outside in north Idaho. If you time your charge to end before you plan on using it in the am, and preheat, it helps warm the packs and use less power to heat pack while off shore power. If you drive longer than about 15 minutes, the consumption drops to near normal levels dispite ambient temperature.... I believe DaveT has a great cold weather post/blog that helped me. I wish they would make setting the charge start time easier to Automatically end charge near morning start time based on how much charge u need... maybe someone who’s twitter buddies with Elon like @SPadival can tweet him tand make this change....;)

In-Post Mod Edit:
"...while off shore power..." is ambiguous. Do you mean "...while ON shore power..." (unambiguous) or "...while not connected to shore power"? Funny language, English.
 
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Doggydogworld

Active Member
Mar 4, 2019
1,743
6,793
Texas
This is a bizarrely pessimistic estimate; you assume accounts payable drops by 3400...
No, I didn't assume AP dropped at all. Forget GAAP accruals for a minute, I'm just looking at the checkbook. They had 3400m of AP on 12/31 with net 60 terms, so they wrote 3400m of checks to suppliers in Jan/Feb. New supplies received in Jan/Feb aren't part of this calculation.

...and accounts receivable drops by 500,
I showed AR on a net basis in this summary, but my full estimate includes all 949 of AR as an inflow but docks North American and overseas car sales by one week's worth of late February sales, since they seem to get paid about one week after delivery on average. I probably should have just shown the expanded version of inflows.

...wait, I see that you're trying to model the "peak cars on ships" moment, when most of the cash is tied up in inventory on ships.
Yes, basically. Tesla's cash expenses are pretty linear, but their cash receipts vary wildly during quarter. They have to manage this pretty carefully some quarters. Like this one.

I don't know why they waited until after passing through the pinch point to expand the ABL. Maybe they didn't want to be accused of borrowing from Peter (ABL) to pay Paul (convertible bonds).
 

Silent Ludicrosy

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Supporting Member
Mar 14, 2018
851
10,989
Phoenix
I miss Jon Stewart... Especially the time when he tore Jim Cramer a new one almost daily :D

(Need to be in US or US VPN to view - Skip the 30 seconds ad)

EDIT: First one is a must watch as Jon Stewart plays segment of the Cramer tape and roasts Cramer on live TV - Watch 2:00 mins into the video.

Exclusive - Jim Cramer Extended Interview Pt. 2 - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Video Clip) | Comedy Central



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Search for Cramer if you want more !!

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

Nice, Maye Musk retweeted this. Should get a bunch of views now.

C61252C4-D9FD-4C33-900F-2ACF1B810742.jpeg
 

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ReflexFunds

Active Member
Dec 7, 2018
1,152
24,429
-
This is the exactly the reason I argue that Tesla can't do this alone. We need many many EVs on the road to stimulate investment on charging infrastructure. When half of the residential parking spaces have chargers, the EV market truely becomes the car market.

It is so ridiculous that people could think charging availability is going to be a bottleneck to EV adoption long term. What are we going to do, get to 40-60% EV penetration and then just stop leaving 0.5-2 million people dying per year from tailpipe emissions and failing to prevent global warming, just because nobody can be bothered to build charging ports on the streets and in residential parking spaces.

EV companies and electricity companies are both heavily incentivised to build out this infrastructure for profit motives alone. Landlords will be incentivised to build this infrastructure to broaden their potential tenants to EV owners. Governments should be incentivised to build out this infrastructure to stop its people dying for no reason, however I have least faith in governments delivering on this.
 
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AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,356
30,326

Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,763
Vienna
I don't know why they waited until after passing through the pinch point to expand the ABL. Maybe they didn't want to be accused of borrowing from Peter (ABL) to pay Paul (convertible bonds).

Other factors:
  • The Fed rate environment determines ABL expenses, and in January there were still Fed rate rises expected for 2019 - which pushed ABL costs up.
  • Recession expectations were all over the place, with big risks like China trade war and European trade war, or a technology sector recession which might have hurt California demand particularly badly. Car sales are very sensitive to recessions. Tesla didn't know what ABL levels to prepare for, and there's significant fees for unused credit lines, i.e. you really don't want to allocate too much ABL credit.
  • Low but nonzero probability: Tesla's banking partners were playing games ...
The moment most of these clouds cleared up Tesla went pedal to the metal and broadened the ABL lines and prepared for a smart end of quarter push in North America, with production going full tilt the whole time.

At least that's my impression. In ~2 weeks we'll know more.
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
104,589
Iceland
Just bought 186 shares and now have 536 total across regular / IRA / Roth accounts. Please tell me I'm smart and this is not going to blow up in my face.

Nobody here is psychic. That said, most people here, by virtue of being bulls who believe that Tesla is emerging as the dominant force in a rapidly growing market that's going to define multiple of the world's major industries in the not-so-distant future (automotive, generation, grid services, general autonomy, etc), expect very strong long-term growth in this stock. If you fall into that group, then you should be happy with your purchase.

If you want more fine-grained control than "linear risk-reward with respect to SP, with a very long-term perspective", you'll need to go with options. But if stock alone makes you nervous, then you definitely don't want to be in options. That said, some options strategies are deleveraging (that is, reducing the risk, at the expense of reducing the reward), if you want to "insure" your stock. For example, you can buy PUTs at a particular price, 1 per 100 shares you own, to ensure that you never lose money if the stock goes below that price. You can pay for them with cash, by selling some of your stock (also reducing the amount you have to "insure"), or by selling covered CALLs (no more than 1 per 100 shares you own) which cost the same amount of money as the PUTs (selling covered calls means that you still gain as the stock rises, up to the strike price of the calls, but cease gaining after that). Such an "insurance policy" can be for the short term (if you're worried about something bad happening soon, but not later) or the long-term (if you're just worried in general).
 
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