Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

You guys are actually thinking that a 10% drop is possible?
I just don't understand why everyone is freaking out so much. It has been known for a while that Elon needs to sell something as his stock options were expiring and he was better off doing it this year than next year when the tax rate is likely going to be higher. I posted the following in the selling options thread, but fits here as well.

Maybe my post will not age well, but really, what is the big deal that he is selling some shares? I am enjoying all the drama - not planning to buy any more shares no matter how low we go, I have more than ever imagined in my wildest dreams. May have fun trading some options during the volatility

Its not what common sense thinks, but rather what algobots read into from headlines. Enough of volume on the sell side creates a feeling for selling in others who are actual people and not algorithms. Of course the fundamentals are only getting stronger and we have seen this play out over many years on a daily, if not hourly basis... Remember the battle for 300? Yeah, it was a real struggle on the manufacturing side. The only real question that a seasoned investor or manager should ask, is how many more GF coming? and where are they getting the machines to fill the factories to make the cars and batteries?Are they buying them, making them? Presumably these orders have all ready been placed.

 

[larmor]

Strange days indeed.

COP26: Fossil fuel industry has largest delegation at climate summit

There are more participants than from any single country, a study shared with the BBC suggests.

www.bbc.com

There are more delegates at COP26 associated with the fossil fuel industry than from any single country, analysis shared with the BBC shows.

As i had hypothesized in a post here on TMC a few weeks ago, that at the Climate change conference, after the blockbuster bill would be announced, then everyone would hold hands and buy more oil.

 

[MC3OZ]

Strange days indeed.

COP26: Fossil fuel industry has largest delegation at climate summit

There are more participants than from any single country, a study shared with the BBC suggests.

www.bbc.com

There are more delegates at COP26 associated with the fossil fuel industry than from any single country, analysis shared with the BBC shows.

I would like to give that a dislike, not for the poster, but for the sad fact of the Fossil Fuel industry lobbying, and those that allow or enable it.

I'm also in the camp that doesn't see a need for a large share price drop just because Elon will probably sell some shares..

I think the weekend at least gives people time to digest the news and respond logically.,

It doesn't seem to be affecting analysts price targets...

But short term the market can always be irrational, so IMO any drop that may happen is irrational, for that reason I think it might not happen.... some may be guided by price target revisions... or other news.

 

[2daMoon]

Who's bringing the chips? Oh, there's a shortage?

Well, Tesla Economist is bringing the dip...

 

[Artful Dodger]

You guys are actually thinking that a 10% drop is possible?

TL.0 was already trading in Düsseldorf on Sunday at 950 Euro. That's $1,098.40 USD.

Don't underestimate the shortzes. Or their target prices.

 

[MXWing]

Last hours to cast your vote before premarket begins to see where we finish tomorrow.

Most votes think 5-10% down which is pretty bad given nothing actual happens from Elon tomorrow. He can't just login to Robinhood and YOLO sell like us retail.

Given the passage of YES to Elon's Twitter Poll - Where do we end up at the close on Monday?

I'm going to guess -5% down. My rationale is some will sell. However, some have to realize Elon isn't going to login to his Robinhood account and sell 10% the same way us retail would.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Open Interest]

TL.0 was already trading in Düsseldorf on Sunday at 950 Euro. That's $1,098.40 USD.

Don't underestimate the shortzes. Or their target prices.

The markets are open on Sunday in Germany?

 

[SPadival]

Jefferies doesn’t have the same cred as a GS or MS amongst the Wall st suits, but I think they will lay off shorting $TSLA today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457540617236619266

 

[MartinAustin]

That would make for an interesting poll and one of those cool moving bar graphs, as the combined values of MSFT, APPL, AMZN and GOOG is a dynamic target. Right now we have (from Yahoo Finance):

MSFT: $2.523 T
AAPL: $2.482 T
GOOG: $1.979 T
AMZN: $1.785 T
TOTAL $8.769T

TSLA: $1.227 T

By the time Tesla's market cap climbs to $8.769T, the total of those other four companies will probably be a bit higher. But you're right, I don't see why Tesla would not climb to be as high as that. A nice 7x multiple from where it is now.

There is no reason you can point to that would stop Tesla having the #1 market cap. Is there a reason why Microsoft is America's most valuable company? Could you say that to someone 20yrs ago during the launch of Windows XP (which was nice) and they would believe you? There is no real reason for it, except the stock market loves tech, and fossil fuel companies are out of fashion.

That rule plays nice for Tesla, too, but Tesla has one more thing going for it... the climate crisis. Which is going to get worse every year. And the IMO HISTORIC "advent of the 4680 cell" which Tesla has figured out how to produce more cheaply than anyone else's battery prices... once all of their products are converted over to 4680, and the energy storage division is going fantastically, they are going to sell tons and tons of products, into a market that is seeing the need for Tesla's products more and more every year.

The only thing I can see that could stop Tesla climbing to the top of that list (assuming Elon stays involved) will be intervention/interference from the U.S. Government, to break it up, slow it down, hand over their ideas and/or manufacturing processes to other entrenched companies that are bribing politicians, whatever.

 

[mars_or_bust]

View attachment 730513

Ron Wyden, visceral hater of Elon, architect of the billionaries tax, believer in equal outcome as opposed to equal opportunity, is also the King of Insider Trading:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457521029224419332

 

[EV forever]

For us normies… You make a crypto, use TSLA to back it… and it’s now a “tokenized” TSLA that can be traded 247 by the cool kids

So how do I buy some?

Edit: I am amazed at things I learn on this forum. Didn’t even know tokenized stocks were a thing!! Just checked Coinbase- you cannot trade it there. Google shows trading platforms that allow you to trade these. Not my cup of tea or coffee but still amazed at the possibilities!

 

[bballshinobi]

So how do I buy some?

Edit: I am amazed at things I learn on this forum. Didn’t even know tokenized stocks were a thing!! Just checked Coinbase- you cannot trade it there. Google shows trading platforms that allow you to trade these. Not my cup of tea or coffee but still amazed at the possibilities!

I've never bought/traded it, but looks like you can do it on FTX:

Edit: LINK

 

[Captkerosene]

Last hours to cast your vote before premarket begins to see where we finish tomorrow.

Most votes think 5-10% down which is pretty bad given nothing actual happens from Elon tomorrow. He can't just login to Robinhood and YOLO sell like us retail.

Given the passage of YES to Elon's Twitter Poll - Where do we end up at the close on Monday?

I'm going to guess -5% down. My rationale is some will sell. However, some have to realize Elon isn't going to login to his Robinhood account and sell 10% the same way us retail would.

teslamotorsclub.com

My vote is that TSLA finishes up. The big reason is that Elon will explain why he is selling in more detail ... and it will make perfect sense. The second reason is that he won't be selling right away. He'll enter into a plan so as not to get sued or investigated. Maybe next summer would be my guess. Third, lots of people are looking for an opportunity to get into TSLA. The early dip tomorrow is the catalyst for them to pull the trigger.

 

[SmokyPeat]

$1188 end of day. Have a little dry powder waiting if it dips below $1000.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TL.0 opened in Berlin at 970 Eur ($1,121.91) w. record-setting Volume: 29K shares traded in the first 3 min of the session:

Update: 41K shares traded at 14 min into the session.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$1188 end of day. Have a little dry powder waiting if it dips below $1000.

On Friday's update (out at 7:00 a.m. before Options trading starts), there were over 20K open Put contracts at the $1,100 Strike price. That's a huge Put wall, and a move to $1,000 this week would cost MMs 2M * $100 or about $200 Million dollars. They'll fight to keep the SP above $1,100.

Further, the Uptick Rule would kick in today if the SP breeched $1,099.88 (just 12 pennies below the Put wall). After that point, no more offers allowed in the Order Book below the latest National Clearing Price. (TL;dr "shortzes hand-cuffed").

Again, I expect a quick push down into the Open, and a V-shaped recovery as buying interest, short-covering, and FOMO kicks in.

 

[Juhoru]

The markets are open on Sunday in Germany?

It's Monday on this side of the globe

 

[Artful Dodger]

TL.0 was already trading in Düsseldorf on Sunday at 950 Euro. That's $1,098.40 USD.

Don't underestimate the shortzes. Or their target prices.

Düsseldorf opened on Monday at 963.40 Eur (about 1,113.27 USD).

It has since climbed to about 983.60 Euro (1,136.38 USD) by 08:40 C.E.T.

 

[MindOverMatcha]

TL.0 opened in Berlin at 970 Eur ($1,121.91) w. record-setting Volume: 29K shares traded in the first 3 min of the session:

View attachment 730545
Update: 41K shares traded at 14 min into the session.

I used to look to TL.0 as a "view into the future", but then stopped when I saw how New York would grab the reins and drive the stock in whichever direction it pleased when it was N.Y.'s turn. The average volume for Berlin is 77,666. The average volume in U.S. is about 21.5 million. That's a 300 X greater volume of what we wield here in the U.S.

Course I could be wrong. Just want to ease the minds of those nervously waiting.

 

[Drezil]

The markets are open on Sunday in Germany?

Not the big official one.
But LS has their direct trade open for some hours on Sunday. 17-22h or so iirc.
With horrendous spreads
Small ones open 7am on Monday. The big ones open 8am (46mins ago). Us-premarket begins 10am here (in 1:15h).