Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

Elon acquired another batch of shares, ~45% so far, at a ~cost of ~$66.5 Million, with a possible "instantaneous" tax value of ~$11.5 Billion (so far) on which ~$6.1 Billion (so far) at an estimated tax rate of 53% would be owed, (so far), however Elon has realized (estimated) (so far) ~$10.9 Billion, so, (estimated) is around $5 Billion ahead (so far),
this leaves Elon, with reported as of 12/2/2021 169,857,523 total shares

SEC.gov | EDGAR Full Text Search

_All_ these figures are _rough_ but should be close
edit:
so far sold 6% of the 10% sold

price							shares
$31.17​	pre split					pre split	5,274,901​	90% of total shares
$6.234​	post split					post split	26,374,505​	23,737,050
								10,662,127	So Far
		shares
	11/8/2021	2,154,572	A	$6.24				$13,444,529.28​	acquired	9.1%​
	11/15/2021	2,107,672	A	$6.24				$13,151,873.28​	acquired	8.9%​
	11/16/2021	2,113,761	A	$6.24				$13,189,868.64​	acquired	8.9%​
	11/23/2021	2,152,681	A	$6.24				$13,432,729.44​	acquired	9.1%​
	12/2/2021	2,133,441	A	$6.24				$13,312,671.84​	acquired	9.0%​
										44.9%​
		10,662,127		total	acquired			$66,531,672.48	Cost
										Avg $
	11/8/2021	934,091​	D					$1,101,093,923.72​	dispersed	$1,178.79​
	11/9/2021	3,088,047​	D					$3,353,496,896.10​	dispersed	$1,085.96​
	11/10/2021	500,000​	D					$527,271,411.03​	dispersed	$1,054.54​
	11/11/2021	639,737​	D					$687,297,093.55​	dispersed	$1,074.34​
	11/12/2021	1,200,000​	D					$1,235,607,328.52​	dispersed	$1,029.67​
	11/15/2021	934,091​	D					$930,718,759.75​	dispersed	$996.39​
	11/16/2021	934,091​	D					$973,353,173.16​	dispersed	$1,042.03​
	11/23/2021	934,091​	D					$1,049,449,444.77​	dispersed	$1,123.50​
	12/2/2021​	934,091​	D					$1,013,650,831.84​	dispersed	$1,085.17​
total so far		10,098,239​	D	shares	Sold			$10,871,938,862.45​		$1,076.62​

Meaning Elon now will be selling even MORE shares to pay taxes??

 

[MABMAB]

Phantom braking is old news. By by radar, hello camera only.

 

[2daMoon]

The Tesla Economist pontificates on profit margin for GigaTexas Model Y when fully ramped and shows how it could exceed 50%

Needless to say, this is B.A.F.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ford projecting their battery cost to hit $80/kWh by the end of the decade. A level Tesla will be below.....today. Lol

 

[YAWD]

I just hope Tesla Vision can reduce phantom braking. It seems this is becoming a bigger issue.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/r7jp4w

I drive on Autopilot every day with a camera only Model 3. Quite frankly, the car drives so much better than my previous Y with radar and cameras. So many little corners cases for freeway driving are fixed in my 3. For a long time, I used to think that I have been transitioned to a vision only Autopilot on my Y but I don't think that has happened yet. I cant speculate the reason but I think all the new autopilot improvements are coming to vision only cars. I am not sure where this phantom braking incidents are coming from. Maybe people are using Autopilot where they are not supposed to like on city streets where FSD Beta is required.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Max pain for today is down to $1100(from $1120 yesterday morning), should be easy enough for MM's to nail.

It was 1,100 yesterday most of the day (maybe higher in the morning only?)
I still expect an 1,100 close today. But Monday.... we'll see!

 

[jhm]

Starting to feel like Tesla is taunting Cybertruck buyers. Whistle, Socks, mini Quad. Maybe this is their new strategy for maximizing profits.

Selling the sizzle before selling the steak.

 

[Knightshade]

I have a 98 score but have not received FSD Beta, so I don’t know what sensor is being used on my 2018 Model 3.

All mass-release firmware uses radar if the car physically has radar (which is all older cars).... FSDBeta cars are vision only even if they physically have radar.

The easy way to tell is vision-only cars (regardless of their HW) are limited to 80 mph max on autopilot, while cars with and using radar have a higher limit of 90. (likewise- radar using cars can set follow distance to 1, vision only can only set it as low as 2)

 

[2daMoon]

Am I the only one that sees Elon's share selling as a sort of "artificial short" in the way it is winding up the spring by suppressing the SP?

If he wraps up the selling by the end of the month, with two new factories coming online, brisk demand, and any other tricks unfolding in the near future, the SP for 2022 is looking as if it could potentially be quite the Plaid Pogo-stick set to run in Ludicrous mode, could it not?

This might very well lead to quite the Happy New Year indeed!

Perhaps we should place our orders for the hats, whistles, fireworks, and confetti now, just to be ready.

 

[elasalle]

Job growth disappoints in November, with a gain of just 210,000, despite high hopes

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 573,000 in November, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 210,000 in November, following a gain of 546,000 the previous month.
• The number was well below Wall Street expectations of 573,000

+ inflation fears might subside now ..

 

[MABMAB]

Last night watched some program on Thomas Edison, I think it was a PBS American Experience show on Amazon Prime.
Many parallels with EM including declaring a product before it is ready, financing based upon his name, taking old technologies and improving upon them, electric cars and batteries...

There have been many examples of ICE vs EV comparing to horse and buggy to start of autos. I think this is a good analogy. A better one was made in the show.

Setting in the time of Edison: Man had indoor lighting based upon open flame, burning of combustibles [akin to autos work based upon open flame]. Man also had 15 minute light bulbs [poor design EVs] and outdoor ARC lighting that was too powerful and bright for everyday use, especially indoors [electric motors in railway transport

]. Edison changed the world by improving upon existing tech by using trial and error over many years to improve the filament and then commercializing light bulbs. He used skilled men, not necessarily educated pedigreed men [EM only interested in men that can solve problems]. While solving the light bulb, he also recognized the need for infrastructure [supercharging] and built those products out also. Edison also seemed to have little regard for money[EM sold off real estate], valued time at his labs seemingly over family, he slept in the labs [factory floor] or in small cabins nearby [the $50K white box in Austin].

THe biggest part of this was changing open flame to wiring, similar to the transportation stuff ongoing.

Apparently Edison was a celebrity in government and the press, as to why EM is not I have no idea.

 

[Krugerrand]

A tortoise is nit a good image for 25% compounded. Anyway no matter how much we would like it the world does not work that way. Yes, TSLA may outpace the markets. No, we will not have any consistent yearly compounding. Just look at the history since 2012:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla

Fantasy is delightful. Reality is different. Enthusiastic investors, to be sure. It is wiser to be realistic.

The purposes of forecasting are several. One of them is to help understand the possibilities on the upside. Another is to understand the ‘levers of growth’ so we can recognize risks better.

One thing we old people have learned is that nothing ever turns out as we dream that it would.
As an aside, brilliant investors with long term success rarely beat typical market indices by more than 5% or so over a business cycle. Every recession has optimistic speculators go broke in large numbers. Please avoid imagining that TSLA will be the unique exception to all the rules.

Being prudent and thorough still can yield wonderful long term results. In my life prudence and thoroughness have been the only really difficult things to master. Knowing you’ve done both is usually possible only in retrospect.

My personal choice is to examine every negative regarding a prospective investment. If it still seems good after that I buy and wait. In the TSLA case I waited in agony through Model X, Model 3 and a few near-death situations. It has not been and will not be a smooth ride. The risks are very obvious and serious. There is completion now and much more is coming, even though we try to ridicule all of it. Tesla will do well, we all think it will. Just understand the risks.

I offer a short list of sure things for sustained long term wonder: Kodak, Xerox, Polaroid, Ford, Douglas. That is only the US. Many of them had massive advantages, many kept it up for decades. All ended their reign in slightly different ways.

I think when we reach a certain age and have acquired a certain amount of knowledge and experience we become a bit encumbered with it all and want to apply everything we know to everything else. We also get really confident we know what we’re talking about.

The story then becomes, I remember when they said this about that, but it turned out different so best you listen to me, I’ve been around the block a few times. And you wouldn’t necessarily be wrong but you might now be entirely right either.

The competition is coming, huh? Well, I suppose if they say that for an additional 10 years, because they’ve been spouting it for basically that long already, the competition may finally get here. For those who believed competition was coming back in 2013 and waited to see what it looked like, well sucks to be them, huh?

My word of caution is that sometimes fortune favors the bold. That sometimes it is different. That sometimes it’s okay to wing it and take a chance, even a big chance. I can say that from experience.

We aren’t all supposed to take the same path, to experience the same things, to learn the same lessons. Somebody has to go down the unbeaten dark path and take on the monster. Thanks, Elon and Team for being brave enough on our behalf. I’m right behind you in case something tries to get past you.

Edit to add: you’re wrong; sometimes it does work out how you dreamed it would.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I drive on Autopilot every day with a camera only Model 3. Quite frankly, the car drives so much better than my previous Y with radar and cameras. So many little corners cases for freeway driving are fixed in my 3. For a long time, I used to think that I have been transitioned to a vision only Autopilot on my Y but I don't think that has happened yet. I cant speculate the reason but I think all the new autopilot improvements are coming to vision only cars. I am not sure where this phantom braking incidents are coming from. Maybe people are using Autopilot where they are not supposed to like on city streets where FSD Beta is required.

We picked up our Model Y exactly a year ago, so it has radar (but not used). I also have the latest FSD Beta and don't see anything unusual with phantom braking. I have seen where someone in front doesn't completely exit your lane when turning left and it can appear phantom, but it's clearly making sure the car in front is out of the path so you don't clip them. Some reactions are slower than mine, but speeding up since earlier days - and it reassures to me that it saw the vehicles that just cut in front of me.

Yesterday, I forced FSD to cross a divided roadway that had curbs guiding the turn throughout the center lane. It was the trickiest thing I could find around here. It quivered as if a bit scared to try it, but I left no alternative and watched it cross safety and right between the curbs on the center island and then the merge on the other side, then crossed 2 lanes for an immediate right. I doubt it has much experience on these situations (if any), and it just seemed to figure it out before my eyes. It was the only logical path and it determined it was usable road and fair game.

Folks I laugh with tears as I experience FSD in my lifetime!

 

[The Accountant]

I'm not yet in the 300k camp; my working model for Q4 has deliveries of 287k. But with what I have seen thus far for November, I may be joining the 300K Club soon.

300k for Q4 would be a 24% increase over Q3. The first markets to report November deliveries have Tesla in aggregate at +83% for the 2months of Q4 vs the 2 months of Q3.

We can't get carried away, we won't be at +83% vs Q3 when the quarter is over; much of this has to do with unwinding the delivery wave.
We will get a better understanding of whether 300k is achievable by monitoring the ships leaving Shanghai in December.
If Tesla puts vehicles on ships in late December (instead of delivering them in local China), those vehicles would appear in Europe in January.
December production delivered in January would not be a bad thing. This would help offset the lower margins in Berlin/Austin.

 

[jhm]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466627520862867460

I should stop posting from twitter today.

Can we tell if these are installed? Or is this inventory ready to ship to clients? I suspect the latter, but confirmation would be helpful.

 

[henchman24]

View attachment 740142

I'm not yet in the 300k camp; my working model for Q4 has deliveries of 287k. But with what I have seen thus far for November, I may be joining the 300K Club soon.

300k for Q4 would be a 24% increase over Q3. The first markets to report November deliveries have Tesla in aggregate at +83% for the 2months of Q4 vs the 2 months of Q3.
View attachment 740145

We can't get carried away, we won't be at +83% vs Q3 when the quarter is over; much of this has to do with unwinding the delivery wave.
We will get a better understanding of whether 300k is achievable by monitoring the ships leaving Shanghai in December.
If Tesla puts vehicles on ships in late December (instead of delivering them in local China), those vehicles would appear in Europe in January.
December production delivered in January would not be a bad thing. This would help offset the lower margins in Berlin/Austin.

So what you're really saying is Norway is down 12% and therefore Tesla is doomed to fail. Did I get the gist?

 

[Ohmster]

First order of business.....figure out the best way to roll my 12/3 $1200c.

Nighty night!

Let me know when you figure that one out. I have similar dilemma.

Solved.

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, fess up, who broke the NASDAQ?

Is it just me that can't get any ticker page on their site to load?

Edit: Ugh! I got the Charts page to show the ticker and it looks like maybe Elon is selling again. Ha ha, yes?

 

[jhm]

[Karen has entered the chat]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466550474966982672

Her mental representation of the Cyberquad design is more Klingon than cyberpunk.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It was 1,100 yesterday most of the day (maybe higher in the morning only?)
I still expect an 1,100 close today. …

Uhh.. given how things have started, I’ll take it.