Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

Last night watched some program on Thomas Edison, I think it was a PBS American Experience show on Amazon Prime.
Many parallels with EM including declaring a product before it is ready, financing based upon his name, taking old technologies and improving upon them, electric cars and batteries...

There have been many examples of ICE vs EV comparing to horse and buggy to start of autos. I think this is a good analogy. A better one was made in the show.

Setting in the time of Edison: Man had indoor lighting based upon open flame, burning of combustibles [akin to autos work based upon open flame]. Man also had 15 minute light bulbs [poor design EVs] and outdoor ARC lighting that was too powerful and bright for everyday use, especially indoors [electric motors in railway transport

]. Edison changed the world by improving upon existing tech by using trial and error over many years to improve the filament and then commercializing light bulbs. He used skilled men, not necessarily educated pedigreed men [EM only interested in men that can solve problems]. While solving the light bulb, he also recognized the need for infrastructure [supercharging] and built those products out also. Edison also seemed to have little regard for money[EM sold off real estate], valued time at his labs seemingly over family, he slept in the labs [factory floor] or in small cabins nearby [the $50K white box in Austin].

THe biggest part of this was changing open flame to wiring, similar to the transportation stuff ongoing.

Apparently Edison was a celebrity in government and the press, as to why EM is not I have no idea.

Correction. Both Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla were accomplished inventors and visionaries, however I would argue Nikola Tesla changed the world. The world runs on AC (Alternating Current by Nikola Tesla), not DC (Direct Current by Thomas Edison).

Tesla vs Edison - Who Really Invented the Light Bulb?

Everyone knows of the prolific inventor Thomas Edison, but until recently, not many recognized the revolutionary contributions of Nikola Tesla. These two were bitter enemies whose outrageous rivalry would bring electricity and innovation to the world.

www.lightbulbs.com

"...unlike Edison who invented for the innovation as well as the fame and money, Tesla was more in it for the betterment of people’s lives."

So if we are going to make comparisons... There is a reason we are posting here on what is known as TMC and not EMC.

 

[jbcarioca]

...

The competition is coming, huh? Well, I suppose if they say that for an additional 10 years, because they’ve been spouting it for basically that long already, the competition may finally get here. For those who believed competition was coming back in 2013 and waited to see what it looked like, well sucks to be them, huh?

My word of caution is that sometimes fortune favors the bold. That sometimes it is different. That sometimes it’s okay to wing it and take a chance, even a big chance. I can say that from experience.

We aren’t all supposed to take the same path, to experience the same things, to learn the same lessons. Somebody has to go down the unbeaten dark path and take on the monster. Thanks, Elon and Team for being brave enough on our behalf. I’m right behind you in case something tries to get past you.

Edit to add: you’re wrong; sometimes it does work out how you dreamed it would.

Of course most of that is true. The basic problem is understanding the difference between bold and ignorant. The only advantage of experience exists when such experience is actual used to learn to avoid making the same error repeatedly. There are those quippy explanations that actual have germs of truth. So your first two phrases might have validity. Fortune favors the bold who have prepared, not the ones who ignore reality. As it happens I have done both, and my experience has taught me the difference.

The third phrase is only relevant in confirming the first two. There is no competition coming because there has been none very relevant so far. That is fallacious reasoning. Good competitors are already arriving. None have yet impeded Tesla and none probably will have material effects now, but three years or so out they'll be really serious. Just examining CATL and BYD give some clues, if one only wants to look at already major ones. You're also assuming that regulation and anti-Tesla sentiment are irrelevant. Not so.

The next paragraph really misstates the lessons of Elon. He looks bold because he does prepare and insist on preparation. That is the difference between, say, Falcon 9 and SLS. That is also the difference between Tesla and typical casting shops. Bold yes, endless preparation and revision, reduces the risk. learning from history teaches reliance on science rather than instinct.

When I am wrong it never works out to me favor. Hence a perhaps obsessive tendency to do all the research I can do before reaching solution. That is also why I avoid thinking my successful approaches will be successful the next time.

When I encounter new information that conflicts with my opinion, I change my opinion. What do you do?

Al we need to does copy Elon as much as our weak abilities permit us to do. First principles rule!

 

[Dangerous Fish]

I couldn't hold out any longer, so bought another 50 at $1010. This guarantees we'll dip below $1000. You're welcome.

 

[JRP3]

And this too

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466798760030351372

Tesla copying GM, the leader.

 

[EVMeister]

They don't call me EVMiser for nothing. Even I am a buyer today.

 

[JRP3]

It's more complex and introduces additional rear tire wear characteristics.

Just copying the front steering setup really, not all that complex, and properly aligned should not cause significant wear issues IMO. My guess is the rear wheels won't be steering in normal use.

 

[jerry33]

+ seems Japan in top 3 in car market behind China and US per google)

Correct. The vehicle inspection laws in Japan make long term car ownership extremely expensive, so new car sales are more-or-less mandated by the government.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ugh, Fidelity won't let me buy calls expiring today in my IRA account. $1050's are $1 right now and it wouldn't shock me to see them ITM at 2:45pm. Way too much incentive for MM's to easily cover here(a lot) and also screw over the $1050 put holders.

 

[jerry33]

Occam's razor would seem to agree with the common supplier senario.

I had read that one was the supplier issue and the other was improperly torqued nuts.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I ordered one of each motor configuration because I figured somehow there would be an advantage.
IF they honor my single motor configuration it will go in storage.

I first went for CT dual, then added Tri and kept my place in line on both with FSD appreciation as the potential payout. Main reason was towing range or wanting to charge other vehicles (for the water or the quad... bike).

And I doubt they'll put the motors inside all 4 wheels as unsprung weight. Remember that competition?

 

[Beltsbear]

The price.

In Tesla style, quad will be $20k more then the tri motor. Quad now shipped first, making it much easier to call a profit on the initial cybertrucks. Quad will take up most of 2022 production. Tri most of 2023. Dual motor people will now be waiting a very long time as Tesla has a lot of demand for the higher priced trims. As a shareholder, this is good news, because the cybertruck was UNDERPRICED and this is a way of fixing that. ASP will be very high for all of 2022-2023. As a buyer of the dual motor, this is bad news as I may need to look at other options now. Fortunately, one of those options could be a Model Y with a tax credit.

 

[lafrisbee]

Advise PLEASE! Should I sell before it goes below $1000?!!!!!!


/s

 

[ZsoZso]

OK, I put in a buy order for $999, that means it will NOT drop that far.
You can thank me later

 

[JRP3]

Buying back some shares at a discount thank you very much.

 

[mrmage]

Added a tranche of Jan 2023 1600c (and reduced taxable income by $160k) by closing short legs of some 1400/1600c spreads at SP ~$1010.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

I had read that one was the supplier issue and the other was improperly torqued nuts.

Yes, correct, but the Teslerati article is confusing the two issues.

 

[SOULPEDL]

And doing my part.

I think a trap is set for the shorts - just a hunch. The low volume was too much for the shorts today to dip in one more time, all the while knowing Musk is up to something akin to a 4D chess game and anything is possible... this weekend, then Monday.

(Edit: Well, now it's heavy volume.)

 

[Nocturnal]

Bought back a few covered calls at least.

In Tesla style, quad will be $20k more then the tri motor. Quad now shipped first, making it much easier to call a profit on the initial cybertrucks. Quad will take up most of 2022 production. Tri most of 2023. Dual motor people will now be waiting a very long time as Tesla has a lot of demand for the higher priced trims. As a shareholder, this is good news, because the cybertruck was UNDERPRICED and this is a way of fixing that. ASP will be very high for all of 2022-2023. As a buyer of the dual motor, this is bad news as I may need to look at other options now. Fortunately, one of those options could be a Model Y with a tax credit.

I assume the tri motor will be dropped, leaving just the dual and quad. What slot could the tri motor fill?

 

[jerry33]

THe biggest part of this was changing open flame to wiring, similar to the transportation stuff ongoing.

Apparently Edison was a celebrity in government and the press, as to why EM is not I have no idea.

I'm pretty sure Edison's companies advertised in the newspapers of the day. (Not that I think Elon should advertise, it would be a bad idea, but there was no reason for the newspapers to vilify Edison.)

 

[elasalle]

Brutal - has the weekend started

+some shuffling, added some more Jun 22 calls