Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

An anecdote.

Attended a kid's birthday party yesterday. Two new 3s. One of them traded in their X - easier to drive. The other one surprisingly turned out to be my neighbor ! I had talked to him a couple of months back about getting an EV. He had rejected the idea and wanted to get a BMW X5. But he thought more about it, test drove 3 and liked it. Immediately ordered and got one - he didn't even ask me about it again.

Moral of the story : talk to folks you know about getting EVs. Even if they seem not open to the idea, the very fact of you talking to them makes them open to the idea.

Exactly! I have a Trump neighbor (get along sort of) who I confirmed watches Fox only - classic type. He's got 2 newer Corvettes (one has >500HP) and so he is the least likely to want a Tesla. I still asked him if he has any plans to get a Tesla, then some small talk. I've gotta get him in the car, this guy knows handling so it will sell on that alone for him.

So after reading your statement, maybe I should be sensitive to his resistance of global warming etc. Don't make it about that at all... tell him "forget that this is electric, try it... the low CG makes steering like nothing on this planet." This approach diffuses the whole political narrative and jumps right to the heart of what he likes! Kinda like that car commercial that hid the labels, asked what they thought it was worth, then voila, it's a Chevy!

Just a passing OT Sunday thought...

 

[Fact Checking]

23,000 Teslas registered in January in US and 6,000 for February.

Registrations are not immediate, many of the January ones are probably December deliveries.

Alpha Hat had 11.5k January deliveries, and they are the most reliable source.

InsideEV probably under-counted because they didn't include the 7k Model 3 inventory Tesla manufactured in December.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Some sources mention over 23,000 Teslas registered in January in US and 6,000 for February. If that's true, we're talking around 34,000 Teslas registered in US and Canada in Jan-Feb. Add 36,000 (minimum) between China (18K) and Europe (18K) for Q1 and they only need to deliver 10K in US/Canada/Mexico in March to reach 80K global deliveries in Q1 (my floor estimate). I'm more for 90K/95K.

The most contentious data point is January deliveries, as other sources talk of under 10K, which I find harder to believe.

The registration data lags by about a month -- so the large January numbers are likely primarily for December deliveries.

Edit: Beaten to the punch by Elo - I mean, @Fact Checking.

 

[Cherry Wine]

They managed to lower expectations of Q1 to be a small loss.
Not sure why they are trying so hard with the end of Q push, I was not even aware that inventory cars are still carrying lower prices.
BK imminent?

There is a lot of anecdotal evidence of Tesla trying to generate as much revenue as humanly possible this quarter -- even going so far as to have that merchandise bonanza recently. The question is: is this to eke out a small surprise profit, or just make the loss as small as possible? Impossible to know.

 

[LordAstinus]

Registrations are not immediate, many of the January ones are probably December deliveries.

Alpha Hat had 11.5k January deliveries, and they are the most reliable source.

InsideEV probably under-counted because they didn't include the 7k Model 3 inventory Tesla manufactured in December.

Other wise people pointed in the same direction... I knew it was too good to believe... Thank you for that!

Well, I need at least 22K deliveries in Europe (4K in Feb, 18K in March) and 25K in US/Canada/Mexico in March to compensate for that hole!

 

[Lessmog]

They managed to lower expectations of Q1 to be a small loss.
Not sure why they are trying so hard with the end of Q push, I was not even aware that inventory cars are still carrying lower prices.
BK imminent?

As has been discussed here over the past few months,
1) they may want to purge old inventory prior to some kind of refresh,
b) they may now see a possible near-term path to inclusion on indexes like S&P500 which is expedited by serial quarterly profits, and incidentally will (probabilistically) drastically boost share price since many funds will be bound to invest in TSLA.

My guess. Credits to the board.

UPDATE: Just saw this tweet from Elon, fwiw:

Elon Musk‏Verifierat konto @elonmusk 9 minför 9 minuter sedan




To be clear, this doesn’t affect Tesla website order prices. Existing inventory prices are currently slightly lower than on website. This will bring them in line.

 

[Fact Checking]

So after reading your statement, maybe I should be sensitive to his resistance of global warming etc. Don't make it about that at all... tell him "forget that this is electric, try it... the low CG makes steering like nothing on this planet." This approach diffuses the whole political narrative and jumps right to the heart of what he likes!

Absolutely, also here are some other EV talking points for Trump supporter neighbors;

• "My car tops up the tank overnight in my garage, with gas prices of under $1 a gallon",
• "With this car I can finally show those Krauts how well a 100% American made muscle car accelerates",
• "Instant torque AWD in the winter, perfect for the upcoming Global Cooling",
• "Frunk for the handguns, trunk for the rifles. Titanium plating against landmines. Two independent motors for enhanced RPG resilience. No gas tank to explode. Satellite maps. This car is Prepper Heaven."
  
• "When I'm refilling this beast not a single dollar is going to the Middle East",
• "Trump owned a Tesla too but those librul wimps at the Secret Service couldn't keep up with him so they insisted on a Cadillac",
• "Driving a Tesla is the real MAGA: it Makes America Grin Again!",
• Finally show him this true historic photo of Donald Trump teaching Elon Musk how to make cars, how to land rockets and how to become a billionaire:
• 

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon: "Please note prices on all Tesla inventory cars worldwide rise by ~3% on April 1"

Not sure what this means.

And clarified:

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 11m11 minutes ago
To be clear, this doesn’t affect Tesla website order prices. Existing inventory prices are currently slightly lower than on website. This will bring them in line.

So as they move from custom order to more inventory based they need to stop discounting inventory vehicles. Makes perfect sense.

 

[anthonyj]

Idk where this “Trump supporters hate Tesla” meme is coming from. Every Trump supporter I’ve ever met have been extremely receptive of Tesla. It’s a great car. Maybe you guys are talking about rednecks? Lol then I agree. But then again, I met an extremely liberal girl who hated Elon because he’s a billionaire. Lol! The extremists on both sides hate Tesla and Elon because they let politics and emotion run their life.

 

[SOULPEDL]

And clarified:


So as they move from custom order to more inventory based they need to stop discounting inventory vehicles. Makes perfect sense.

Wait... remind me, why do we need inventory (waste)? Overseas thing only?

 

[Lessmog]

And clarified:


So as they move from custom order to more inventory based they need to stop discounting inventory vehicles. Makes perfect sense.

Kardashit Elon, haven't you learned that clarification tweets is what brings on the SEC rack and pinion steering wheel tort? How stoopit kan you bee eh?

 

[RobStark]

that’s ridiculous. Metallic paint does not cost $1,500-$2,500 to produce. This is one area Tesla milks money.

Triple coat pearls do cost more make.

Toyota charges $395 for Supersonic Red (not a pearl) and Wind Chill Pearl ( which is not really a pearl).

If you want solid black roof with Wind Chill Pearl Toyota charges an extra $500. For a solid black roof for a total of $895. For a Camry.


If you order an A4 from Audi they charge $595 extra for Florett Silver Metallic, White Glacier Metallic,Manhattan Gray Metallic, Matador Red Metallic, Monsoon Gray Metallic,Mythos Black Metallic, or Navarra Blue Metallic.

Audi Special Paint color is $3900.

Solid Black or White is a no cost option.

 

[jerry33]

Wait... remind me, why do we need inventory (waste)? Overseas thing only?

Some inventory can't be helped because it's in transit at the end of the accounting period. There's some justification for inventory to speed delivery or for the impulse buyer. Whether or not that justifies the expense of carrying an inventory is another question.

 

[NicoV]

Configurator says May delivery at the moment... Where did he get August from?

From his order confirmation mail. Which is why he was surprised because the site said May.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Some inventory can't be helped because it's in transit at the end of the accounting period. There's some justification for inventory to speed delivery or for the impulse buyer. Whether or not that justifies the expense of carrying an inventory is another question.

I say make 'em wait in hell like we all did!

 

[NicoV]

Elon: "Please note prices on all Tesla inventory cars worldwide rise by ~3% on April 1"

Not sure what this means.

Lack of demand!
Another indication that the order book is filling up fast.
Or a trick to get even more deposits in Q1

Edit: just realized this was about inventory cars. So just clearing out stock for Q1.

 

[jerry33]

I say make 'em wait in hell like we all did!

That only works for early adopters. Most folks want instant gratification. Anyway, from the time I placed the order to delivery was only 63 days, eight of which were securing financing because I didn't expect the car that soon and I didn't want the approval to run out. The car was ready for delivery 55 days from the date of order. IIRC Tesla was making about 400 cars a day then.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Talking about colours. Has anybody bought a plain black model 3, brought it to a quality paint shop and painted it a custom colour? Extra clear etc. Looked for a thread on this. Didn’t find one. Any down side to this,

 

[jerry33]

Talking about colours. Has anybody bought a plain black model 3, brought it to a quality paint shop and painted it a custom colour? Extra clear etc. Looked for a thread on this. Didn’t find one. Any down side to this,

Other than cost, there shouldn't be any downside. You might still want PPF to protect it.

 

[Fact Checking]

From his order confirmation mail. Which is why he was surprised because the site said May.

That is super interesting! Any details about the configuration he picked, anything unusual like white interior or a premium color?