Dammit, I'm never going to get my car if you mainlanders keep buying so many :Þ
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Dammit, I'm never going to get my car if you mainlanders keep buying so many :Þ
X Fan
Supporting Member
Under category of nice to see:
I’m watching an Euro Qualifier, Hungary vs Croatia, and VW was running a full stadium ad around the pitch on their upcoming EV, ID.
Can’t help think that the more they publicize and legitimatize the EV Market, the better for Tesla since the Model 3 is shipping now and is such an outstanding product.
Btw: it’s been run multiple times.
I’m watching an Euro Qualifier, Hungary vs Croatia, and VW was running a full stadium ad around the pitch on their upcoming EV, ID.
Can’t help think that the more they publicize and legitimatize the EV Market, the better for Tesla since the Model 3 is shipping now and is such an outstanding product.
Btw: it’s been run multiple times.
- Mar 24, 2013
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Yeah, I realize that you are playing the devil's advocate in a sense, but Norway begs to differ on the first point:
On the second point, while EVs help with global warming, both global warming and EV transition will happen with a very high likelihood.
Yes, EV-friendly policies can speed up the EV transition like in Norway, but EV transition is going to happen anyway, even in the U.S. that does everything it can do on the policy level to help the incumbents.
In the end there's going to be a list of the largest players in the trillion dollars EV industry and the bear case has trouble explaining why Tesla won't be among those players.
So I consider the "rational bear case" entirely discredited.
Can anyone defend the "rational bear case" please? No genuine Tesla bears left here I think, there were only trolls who got themselves banned.
This got me to wondering (am on the road again today; no real computer to do research):
Considering the world’s leading GDP economies, how many are NOT burdened with the legacy of a domestic auto manufacturing sector? Norway, Singapore... Perhaps Switzerland and Finland but even they have exposure to OEM suppliers, I believe.
Norway has just about everything to gain and virtually nothing to lose, other than the removed-by-several-degrees hydrocarbon extractive sector.
Sitting high in the catbird seat - lucky them!
If US SR/SR+ orders have been extremely strong, it could make sense to dedicate Q2 production fully to the US to ensure access to the tax credit before the next step down. However I think this is very unlikely unless we start to see significant reports of August delivery dates and a change from May to August estimate in the European & Chinese configurator.
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
Lol, understand and point well taken, but two tiny quibbles:
- the 12.65x multiple is the average across S&P500 companies, so technically a $362 SP would be an estimate of 'central tendancy', rather than a min. value
- I'd also prefer to say 'fair value was' [18Q4] rather than 'is' since Tesla's [19Q1] has increased Model 3 production approx. 50% (7K vs 4.6K)
We should know in about 6-7 trading days. Will stay tuned.
Cheers!
P.S. Thanks for all your wonderful weekend analysis. It's like a 'comet' of content!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The biggest one, by far: China!
Electric Dream
Pilots the Millennium Milkfloat
I just tried the configurator with a few different countries.
China said March delivery, all EU countries I tried said estimated May or May delivery.
Whatever happens with production in the next couple of months, I think (and hope) that it's a fair bet they will also have to accommodate RHD Model 3s in that as well. Maybe that has a bearing on what customers with firm orders are being told?
China said March delivery, all EU countries I tried said estimated May or May delivery.
Whatever happens with production in the next couple of months, I think (and hope) that it's a fair bet they will also have to accommodate RHD Model 3s in that as well. Maybe that has a bearing on what customers with firm orders are being told?
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
earlier I referenced "Red Barchetta" by Rush, but I didn't elaborate why I felt it was an appropriate song. So for those who don't know:
In 1973 there was a short story published in Road & Track[1] that fantasized about a dystopian future where the government over-regulated automotive safety to the point that only huge, gas guzzling SUV's were allowed to be made (the author calls them "Modern Safety Vehicles"). Because injuries went down, drivers became reckless (apparently that is the only logical consequence of improved safety) and the accident rates went up.
Inspired by this story, Peart crafted a song in which a motor law prohibits older cars, despite which the protagonist goes for a drive in a red Barchetta. He is nearly run down by the road monster SUVs, but escapee's them across a narrow bridge.
How do I see this relating to Tesla?
First, Tesla's cars -- while not technically barchettas -- are high performance vehicles. The sort of vehicle that inspire drivers the way the driver in the original story and in the song are inspired.
Second, Tesla turns the premise on its head by exceeding government regulation safety standards to achieve the safest car[2] while still maintaining high efficiency and performance. This appeals strongly to my sense of irony.
Third, various state governments have taken specific action to outlaw Tesla. While they are currently only making sales and service illegal the SEC is currently trying to take Tesla apart through the office of "government oversight" for the "protection" of the people.
Fourth, heck its Rush, do I need any other reason? My daughter would ask for "the owl album" from a young age[3]
Although metallic blue is still my favorite color, the idea of a red M3P with a "RED BARCHETTA" vanity plate is incredibly appealing.
So, is this off topic? For investing? Yeah, okay, ya got me. But the first three are, I believe valid ties between the Rush song and Tesla. If I was doing a Tesla commercial it would simply be a red M3P swinging through a country highway before being assaulted by two SUVs (hmmm... license plates "SEC" and "MBS"?), evading them and escaping per the song. All set to "Red Barchetta" of course.
1) preserved at A Nice Morning Drive : How-To Library : The MG Experience
2) "safest car" is easy to say, but difficult to demonstrate. However, for this purpose the NHTSA safety testing results are adequate as they measure "lowest probability of occupant injury" which is the same standard referred to in the short story. And the top three spots are all Tesla.
3) though nowadays her favorite is AKB48, bar none. But that is a longer decidedly off topic story
In 1973 there was a short story published in Road & Track[1] that fantasized about a dystopian future where the government over-regulated automotive safety to the point that only huge, gas guzzling SUV's were allowed to be made (the author calls them "Modern Safety Vehicles"). Because injuries went down, drivers became reckless (apparently that is the only logical consequence of improved safety) and the accident rates went up.
Inspired by this story, Peart crafted a song in which a motor law prohibits older cars, despite which the protagonist goes for a drive in a red Barchetta. He is nearly run down by the road monster SUVs, but escapee's them across a narrow bridge.
How do I see this relating to Tesla?
First, Tesla's cars -- while not technically barchettas -- are high performance vehicles. The sort of vehicle that inspire drivers the way the driver in the original story and in the song are inspired.
Second, Tesla turns the premise on its head by exceeding government regulation safety standards to achieve the safest car[2] while still maintaining high efficiency and performance. This appeals strongly to my sense of irony.
Third, various state governments have taken specific action to outlaw Tesla. While they are currently only making sales and service illegal the SEC is currently trying to take Tesla apart through the office of "government oversight" for the "protection" of the people.
Fourth, heck its Rush, do I need any other reason? My daughter would ask for "the owl album" from a young age[3]
Although metallic blue is still my favorite color, the idea of a red M3P with a "RED BARCHETTA" vanity plate is incredibly appealing.
So, is this off topic? For investing? Yeah, okay, ya got me. But the first three are, I believe valid ties between the Rush song and Tesla. If I was doing a Tesla commercial it would simply be a red M3P swinging through a country highway before being assaulted by two SUVs (hmmm... license plates "SEC" and "MBS"?), evading them and escaping per the song. All set to "Red Barchetta" of course.
1) preserved at A Nice Morning Drive : How-To Library : The MG Experience
2) "safest car" is easy to say, but difficult to demonstrate. However, for this purpose the NHTSA safety testing results are adequate as they measure "lowest probability of occupant injury" which is the same standard referred to in the short story. And the top three spots are all Tesla.
3) though nowadays her favorite is AKB48, bar none. But that is a longer decidedly off topic story
Elon: "Please note prices on all Tesla inventory cars worldwide rise by ~3% on April 1"
Not sure what this means.
Not sure what this means.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Active Member
I know. I was out with him last Friday night. He had the nerve to say my Tesla was more apt to kill me in a battery fire than I was to die in a Boeing 737 Max 8 crash.
He drove us in his three year old Mercedes SUV company car. He’s an engineer/manager for Freightliner. I couldn’t help but notice how pathetic the drivetrain was, but I kept it to myself.
8-8 ships went to Europe and China - do you agree that this probably suggest that the production output was split roughly 50%/50%?
I suspect it's a little more lopsided than that. Looking at the source data from the ship tracker, the 8 ships bound for China spent an average of 2.12 days in port 80 vs. 2.87 days for the Europe bound ships. Linear loading is certainly a rough assumption, but probably reasonable. Given this, I'd estimate roughly 16K-17K for China and 23K-24K to Europe.
I'm further assuming about 1K cars/day loading based on almost data. The Elon tweet of 4K cars was synchronous with the Grand Venus in port 80 and it was there for about 4 days. So that's a gross extrapolation that leads to a total of 40K cars combined for Europe and China. Regardless, of the final amount, I expect the ratio of roughly 42% China, 58% Europe to apply.
I suspect it's a little more lopsided than that. Looking at the source data from the ship tracker, the 8 ships bound for China spent an average of 2.12 days in port 80 vs. 2.87 days for the Europe bound ships. Linear loading is certainly a rough assumption, but probably reasonable. Given this, I'd estimate roughly 16K-17K for China and 23K-24K to Europe.
I'm further assuming about 1K cars/day loading based on almost data. The Elon tweet of 4K cars was synchronous with the Grand Venus in port 80 and it was there for about 4 days. So that's a gross extrapolation that leads to a total of 40K cars combined for Europe and China. Regardless, of the final amount, I expect the ratio of roughly 42% China, 58% Europe to apply.
Some sources mention over 23,000 Teslas registered in January in US and 6,000 for February. If that's true, we're talking around 34,000 Teslas registered in US and Canada in Jan-Feb. Add 36,000 (minimum) between China (18K) and Europe (18K) for Q1 and they only need to deliver 10K in US/Canada/Mexico in March to reach 80K global deliveries in Q1 (my floor estimate). I'm more for 90K/95K.
The most contentious data point is January deliveries, as other sources talk of under 10K, which I find harder to believe.
The most contentious data point is January deliveries, as other sources talk of under 10K, which I find harder to believe.
They managed to lower expectations of Q1 to be a small loss.
Not sure why they are trying so hard with the end of Q push, I was not even aware that inventory cars are still carrying lower prices.
BK imminent?
Exactly! I have a Trump neighbor (get along sort of) who I confirmed watches Fox only - classic type. He's got 2 newer Corvettes (one has >500HP) and so he is the least likely to want a Tesla. I still asked him if he has any plans to get a Tesla, then some small talk. I've gotta get him in the car, this guy knows handling so it will sell on that alone for him.
So after reading your statement, maybe I should be sensitive to his resistance of global warming etc. Don't make it about that at all... tell him "forget that this is electric, try it... the low CG makes steering like nothing on this planet." This approach diffuses the whole political narrative and jumps right to the heart of what he likes! Kinda like that car commercial that hid the labels, asked what they thought it was worth, then voila, it's a Chevy!
Just a passing OT Sunday thought...
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Registrations are not immediate, many of the January ones are probably December deliveries.
Alpha Hat had 11.5k January deliveries, and they are the most reliable source.
InsideEV probably under-counted because they didn't include the 7k Model 3 inventory Tesla manufactured in December.
Cherry Wine
Supporting Member
The registration data lags by about a month -- so the large January numbers are likely primarily for December deliveries.
Edit: Beaten to the punch by Elo - I mean, @Fact Checking.
Cherry Wine
Supporting Member
They managed to lower expectations of Q1 to be a small loss.
Not sure why they are trying so hard with the end of Q push, I was not even aware that inventory cars are still carrying lower prices.
BK imminent?
There is a lot of anecdotal evidence of Tesla trying to generate as much revenue as humanly possible this quarter -- even going so far as to have that merchandise bonanza recently. The question is: is this to eke out a small surprise profit, or just make the loss as small as possible? Impossible to know.
Other wise people pointed in the same direction... I knew it was too good to believe... Thank you for that!
Well, I need at least 22K deliveries in Europe (4K in Feb, 18K in March) and 25K in US/Canada/Mexico in March to compensate for that hole!
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