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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The funny thing is everyone heard "product roadmap" and assumed Elon was going to talk about new vehicles models. But the products he specifically joined to talk about were FSD and AI.

And the fund managers know how to put a value to vehicle unit sales and project those forward. But they don't know how to value AI. Nobody knows how to value AI; except Elon, apparently.
We need old Adam Jonas right now. Not $5-$1,200 Adam Jonas, but the one from about 2013-14 where he would ask a question and he and Elon would giggle together because he had the Elon decoder ring. That Adam Jonas would show up and say 'TSLA will be the most valuable company in the world by 2025' and become legend because of it.

Come on Adam, it's better to burn out than to fade away. Who'd you rather be, the Beatles or the Rolling Stones. Etc.
 
I am wondering if this new tech is more in the machine that will make the Cybertruck. I think Tesla is very secretly working on an AI assembly line that will scarily look like something out of the terminator. Why else start work on Optimus first?
All 4680's go to Model Y ramp up and nothing else until that is accomplished.
 
Today made no sense.

I cannot for one moment be convinced by ANYONE that this price action was sensible, especially against a macro backdrop which wasn't a disaster.

This was absolutely, 100% against reason. Literally doesn't make ANY logical sense at all. Vulcans would be going nuts right now.
Vulcans would be all like pon farr on this.

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Yet another post re-iterating Tesla's current strengths... although I have probably left some off

* the world's most profitable automaker (still rated junk by Moody's 🤣)
* the world's most valuable automaker by market cap
* makes more BEVs than anyone else, over 1mm/yr right now
* Model 3 and Model Y are at #1 on many sales lists by segment and/or terrritory
* fastest-accelerating car in history of auto production. (and fastest-accelerating SUV ever)
* loftiest goals of any automaker - 20mm/yr by 2030
* existing production coming from only two assembly locations
* two new state-of-the-art factories about to start up
* more than one new location announced by end of 2022? For 2024 production starts?
* also has solar energy generation, energy storage and "machine labour" divisions
* all-time record revenues and profits happening NOW
* LONG waiting lists for all their cars, including ~1.5million Cybertruck interest
* new battery tech w/ better charging, safety, cost and storage capability introduced Q1
* many deals going years into the future to secure ore+metals for battery manufacturing
* FSD software testing in 60,000 cars today - perhaps all cars that purchased it by EOY2022?
* all the world's best engineers + Elon Musk at the helm.

Suffice it to say... I bought more stock today at $859 and even though it continued to fall afterwards, I reckon that was an amazing discount considering the amazing earnings report. Confident it will be higher later
 
All 4680's go to Model Y ramp up and nothing else until that is accomplished.
I cannot agree with this enough.
Tesla freaking prints money with the Model Y already.
Margins likely improve even more as Austin factory ramps and 4680's help.
Model Y wait times in the MONTHS even after thousands of dollars of price increase ... on an already profitable car.
SPEND THIS YEAR MAKING ALL THE CARS YOU CAN MOSTLY MODEL Y'S. 2170, 4680, 867-5309, WHATEVER IT TAKES!!!!!
Somebody should tell Elon (/s) ;)

Please help, Saphira made me type this
 
Recap:

1) Backing out the $700M of one-time items, we see that the underlying OpEx has stayed at about $1.5B per quarter for the 5th qtr in a row. Pure operating leverage continues.

2) Gross margins slightly improved despite cost pressures of raw materials, commodities and logistics. Price increases still mostly haven't hit yet, either.

3) HVAC plans fully confirmed.

4) Shanghai and Fremont alone could increase output 50% in 2022. Operated at less than capacity in 2021 solely due to supply chain constraints.

5) Global inventory down to 4 days' worth of sales. Tesla still moving closer to earning title of world's undisputed greatest Just-in-Time manufacturer.

6) Insurance feedback loop causing substantially safer driving behavior while saving money for customers, as hoped.

7) Optimus robot for factory usage confirmed.

8) 4680 structural pack Ys ship to customers in Q1.

9) Elon maintains monomaniacal focus on Tesla AI endeavors as the priority. Despite the fact that this plan is obviously logical from a financial and mission standpoint, it's causing much consternation on Wall Street.

10) Overwhelming order backlog makes production volume increases for 2022 take priority over new models.

On Monday, I'll be taking out more margin debt for LEAPs. How the market has concluded that Tesla is worth 30% less than a month ago is completely beyond my understanding.

"There should no longer be doubt about the viability and profitability of electric vehicles."

Love,
Gigapress
 
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* loftiest goals of any automaker - 20mm/yr by 2030
Much like the mission of 'spurring the adoption of sustainable transport' magically transmogrified into 'spurring the adoption of sustainable energy' a few years ago, I think with the recent earnings call touting FSD and Robotaxi, we'll see 20mm cars/yr. become 200B miles/year since the emphasis will be on displacing ICE driving miles, not number of cars (though somewhat correlated).
 
Amazingly brutal day, but not just for TSLA (and my retirement), but everything EV company. LCID, XPEV, RIVN all down even more than TSLA.

I try to keep it in perspective. My goal is to not to outlive my money. I can still retire this year, I just need to die a few years earlier.
Just keep worrying about it and you shouldn't have to worry about it. Wait, what?
 

Imo same for mass producing profitable electric vehicles.
Yes, it is possible that Tesla solve FSD 5 years before anyone else. But turn this around, think of company that could solve it much sooner. Would they be limited to just automotive applications for this tech? Probably not. Humanoid robots? Yep, that would be attractive and within reach too. Musk is skating to where the puck will be.
 
I made a statement, not an argument and if your friend emptied her credit line to go all in....did she just think it was going to go up and make quick $? If so, than you should have given her some advice before she did that since you've been around TMC for a while now.
She'll be fine.
I was trying to make you aware that there is a spectrum of holders with different entry points.
About advices, you know how often people listen to them? :)
 
Yes, it is possible that Tesla solve FSD 5 years before anyone else. But turn this around, think of company that could solve it much sooner. Would they be limited to just automotive applications for this tech? Probably not. Humanoid robots? Yep, that would be attractive and within reach too. Musk is skating to where the puck will be.
Elon Gretzky. (BTW, Gretzky was a better hockey player than Jordan was a basketball player - probably only Babe Ruth in the last 100 years transformed his sport more).

Elon > Babe.
 
She'll be fine.
I was trying to make you aware that there is a spectrum of holders with different entry points.
About advices, you know how often people listen to them? :)
There will always be a spectrum of holders with different entry points....they fall into 2 categories...the gamblers and the investors :)

We've seen this play out before...before we know it, it'll be long forgotten.
 
What do you think of that as an investment? Perhaps they should have spent that money on TSLA instead. $80k in TSLA stock in 2015 would be, well more than enough to buy a fleet of Plaids with FSD to serve a small town.

It was bad advice then and still is now. And when it was pointed out in 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019 the people pointing it out were laughed at, or worse.
I wasn't defending whether or not it was a good investment. Just pointing out that there are people buying Teslas so they can add them to the Tesla Robotaxi Network.
 
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Yes, it is possible that Tesla solve FSD 5 years before anyone else. But turn this around, think of company that could solve it much sooner. Would they be limited to just automotive applications for this tech? Probably not. Humanoid robots? Yep, that would be attractive and within reach too. Musk is skating to where the puck will be.
Bingo! I think the underlying point is that Tesla is (or could be anyway) the world's undisputed leader in AI and it's practical application towards "physical" problems, as opposed to just directed advertising. The efforts put into FSD transfer and scale (potentially anyway, I'm no AI expert) into all kinds of physical applications. The "humanoid" robots look cute and are a PR move, but the tech is equally focused on more "industrialized" applications. Look at their own factories and the potential to update the assembly, material handling and welding robots with AI, capable of "learning" and improving their own operation, figuring out the most efficient sequences, rather than having a human programmer "teach" them. To identify parts or manufacturing variations and either correct them or notify a human supervisor. The potential to greatly increase flexibility of their assembly lines to switch to different models or perform different functions depending on options on the vehicle. How about autonomous fork trucks doing material handling in the factories and loading and unloading tractor-trailers? The possibilities are nearly endless. Even better, the potential is there to take people out of dangerous, physically demanding or reparative jobs. How about a robotic firefighter with eyes that can see in smoke-filled rooms, have far more strength than a human, tolerate high temperatures, and..if worse comes to worse if lost, it's not a human life.