Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Have a good weekend y'all!! i just had an epiphany siting on the throne (ala Elon)...I believe the CT will go into prod this year and we will have the last laugh because the king of sandbagging wants us retail investors to win! See yall on the battlefield Monday!

 

[JusRelax]

Don't say Tesla don't say Tesla don't say Tesla don't say Tesla don't say Tesla......

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487170424156925954

YES! I did it! No losing my job today! /s

 

[Ogre]

Have a good weekend y'all!! i just had an epiphany siting on the throne (ala Elon)...I believe the CT will go into prod this year and we will have the last laugh because the king of sandbagging wants us retail investors to win! See yall on the battlefield Monday!

My heart says

My brain says

 

[SmokyPeat]

Ideally the fart mode would be random. Then it would have to say “Oh My” and wave it’s hand.

I’m pretty sure touches like this will endear it to some people who would otherwise hate robots.

I can picture a future where every family has a flatulent C3PO servant bot. Complete with warm gas thrusters.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I've already signed...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487235879617941507

Couldn't help myself...

 

[willow_hiller]

You are down-right spreading lies. All Waymo accident (of which only 1 are caused by waymo) Are both reported to CA DMV and the NHTSA.

Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and say we don't know enough about these accidents:

Take it to the Waymo thread if you really want to defend them.

 

[Knightshade]

Have a good weekend y'all!! i just had an epiphany siting on the throne (ala Elon)...I believe the CT will go into prod this year and we will have the last laugh because the king of sandbagging wants us retail investors to win! See yall on the battlefield Monday!

S/X refresh- late
Cybertruck-late
Roadster 2-late
Semi-late
Plaid+ cancelled
Austin- late
Berlin- late
FSD- insanely late


Yeah...king of sandbagging


Elon delivers amazing products. Eventually. They are 1000% worth waiting for- and you will.

The fact we've had years of folks seeing them arrive late/delayed and people still tell this sandbagging narrative is nuts.

Elon repeatedly tells you things like "I try to be very literal, generally you don't need to read between the lines, just read the lines" and people keep ascribing these secret PLANS WITHIN HIDDEN PLANS to his words.

He told you CT isn't coming this year. There's no reason not to believe him.


Same problem with people who keep insisting the MODEL 2 IS COMING despite Elon explicitly saying there's no model 2, that's not a thing.

Alright. Yes, Model 2 is not a car. There is no Model 2. The 3 means E. So we are – Model 3, we try to do get the – we are going to call it the Model E, but then Ford runs to sue us. And so we said, let’s call it the Model 3. So, it’s S, 3, X, Y instead of you know, anyway.

 

[dhanson865]

thinking too small, think hundreds, even thousands, packed into a Boring company compartment of a starship. Neuralinked avatars; deployed to mine asteroids/worlds, begin terra forming if applicable, build habitats, gather whatever resources are needed to continue exploration, etc., connected to user(s) via satellites plotted along the ever expanding territories (star-Links).

You better be orbiting the same planet or asteroid or moon that your "avatar" is working on or the time delay of the signal would be too great for you to successfully pick up a pencil let alone try to mine or build anything.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah...king of sandbagging

Elon delivers amazing products. Eventually. They are 1000% worth waiting for- and you will.

Musk sandbags some things. I think production estimates for example.

Deadlines? Yeah, forget it.

 

[Nolimits]

Wow. So hyped up.

12 Key Points from 4Q21 Earnings Call (11 from EM and 1 from DB )

I listened to TSLA EC a second time today ... this is so freaking bullish ... I really don't get what all whining and handwringing is about (from Investors... as for the gamblers i understand, EM is not running his business for your short term bets)
below are verbatim excerpts from EM opening remarks:

1) And while we battled, and everyone did, with supply chain challenges through the year, we managed to grow our volumes by nearly 90% last year

2)Additionally, we reached the highest operating margin in the industry in the last widely reported quarter at over 14% GAAP operating margin.

3) So, we've begun production at both Texas and Berlin, we started that last quarter.

4) in Texas, we're building the Model Ys with the structural battery pack and the 4680 cells, and we’ll start delivering after final certification of the vehicle, which should be fairly soon.

5) Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.

6) Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but we will through 2022, look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year, I expect.

7) Full Self-Driving. So, over time, we think Full Self-Driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. It's -- actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty -- it's nutty good from a financial standpoint. And I think we are completely confident at this point that it will be achieved.

8) So, on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call.

9) The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So, both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease.

10)So, we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be part constrained. We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling and whatnot to create those vehicles, Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on, are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars?

11) So, in terms of priority of products, I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.

he then asks Drew to talk 4680

12) DB: our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers is actually -- it sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022 or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.

I will agree the Q/A gets a bit confusing for those who do not understand EM communication style ... but i prefer the open dialogue (HVAC example) to the scripted BS from most other public companies .. they are joking around about disrupting another entire sector of the energy business ... challenging other companies to step up and accelerate the mission ... and when these other companies don't do it in a few years ... you can bet Tesla eventually will as it is in their mission to do it if others wont....

With the market closing green, this post is too good to not repost. Hoping the correction is over and bulls lead the charge yet again.
Do y’all think institutions had enough time to digest the EC and get on board the train while the price is cheap?

 

[ZachF]

I think institutional investors over rotated away from tech. Walmart's PE is 48. Is there a Walmart web services I don't know about?

There are a lot of companies that trade at stupid PEs. Disney is currently at 100

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

The decision to delay working on the $25k makes sense for a lot of reasons already mentioned, but especially for service & charging. Tesla would need to build service centers & superchargers much faster to keep wait times reasonable for service appointments and charging.

 

[Singuy]

There are a lot of companies that trade at stupid PEs. Disney is currently at 100

Well at least you can rationalize Disney since their earnings took a beating from Covid, hence a terrible trailing PE.

 

[Troy]

Troy forgot that Zach said they can hit 50% growth rate just with Fremont and Shanghai for 2022. So for 2023 50% growth rate is in the bag.

Q4 transcript

Zach
"As we look forward, we expect 2022 to be another significant and exciting year for the company. We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth at or above 50%, as Elon mentioned, and our plans show that this is actually achievable with just our Fremont and Shanghai factories. "

No. Deliveries were 936,222 units in 2021. In the conference call, Tesla confirmed at least 50% growth in 2022. That means at least 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022. Zach is saying this is achievable with just Fremont and Shanghai which is correct. There is nothing in Zach's statement about 2023. 2023 is going to be clearly below 50%. 2024 as well.

Here is that specific section:

 

[Beltsbear]

Troy has some thoughts on future growth rates

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487246872599273473

I could maybe buy this theory (the building bit anyway) for 2023.... but Austin was about 18 months from start to deliveries (assuming we're getting deliveries any minute here) so seems like there's still at least 6 months for them to start another building on site and have it ready to spit stuff out start of '24.... (and likely even more time than that since they're not starting from a bare site with no permits to do anything).

I guess he might have a point on berlin depending how much longer we wait on that one

Also seems to be ignoring any further shanghai expansion, which we know can get done pretty fast.

Troy is smart. But he has some assumptions about Berlin and Austin that are just wrong. Austin is huge and will certainly contain more than two lines. And Shanghai can be enhanced by 2024 with new buildings. 50% yearly growth is possible including 2024. 2025 will need new factories which have to be started this year.

 

[Knightshade]

No. Deliveries were 936,222 units in 2021. In the conference call, Tesla confirmed at least 50% growth in 2022. That means at least 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022. Zach is saying this is achievable with just Fremont and Shanghai which is correct. There is nothing in Zach's statement about 2023. 2023 is going to be clearly below 50%. 2024 as well.

...if 1.4M for 2022 is achievable with just Freemont and shanghai, and let's say they get what 100k conservatively from austin/berlin each, that's 1.6M

So they'd only need another 800k in 2023 for 50%. You don't think they get up to 500k each in austin and berlin in the second full year of production?

As to 2024, that's 2 years away.

The entire time from start to production in Shanghai was 10 months, Austin/Berlin will end up being around 18 months. And that's from empty fields to building cars.

On all 3 sites where they've already got infrastructure and a lot of permits you don't think they can add significant capacity in less than 2 years time?

And we know they're likely announcing at least 2 factories by end of 2022.... using again a guide of 10-18 months from start to production those would also contribute to 2024 numbers for 6-12 months of 2024 (roughly).


Plus... ya know... tents!

 

[StealthP3D]

If anyone was still worried about Waymo: Waymo sues California DMV to keep robotaxi safety details secret

And they kinda gave the game away in describing the things they want to remain secret:



Or in other words, Waymo can't traverse tunnels, can't handle tight curves, can't climb steep hills, and crashes more often than we currently know.

I don't understand what has gone wrong with the balance of power between private companies and public infrastructure that Waymo thinks they should be able to keep these kinds of details from the public. Without public roads, Waymo doesn't exist. In the common-sense world I grew up in, the dependency upon public infrastructure would totally negate any proprietary secrecy they feel they may have on these details. The public right to know should overwhelmingly over-ride any right to secrecy because the need for secrecy is not compelling in any rational analysis. Transparency and public trust are far more important. Has the world gone mad?

The California DMV will probably act as their advocates and rule that Waymo's safety contingencies are valuable proprietary information, and the public has no need to know because some rubber-stamp agency will make sure the plans are adequate and the public is too stupid to need to know how they are ensuring safety.

Don't get me wrong, I'm generally not too concerned with safety in general or in this instance, I'm just offended they think I don't have a right to know these most fundamental things about how they plan to use public infrastructure. That is something they give up when the ask for a license to utilize these public resources. Obviously.

 

[dhanson865]

Thanks. Maybe an add on ?

Not enough space in the Model 3 for a proper bioweapon defense mode filter setup. There are aftermarket filters that fit in the same space but that would force you to change the filter more often and it doesn't address the airflow differences.

It might be possible for Tesla to redesign the model 3 someday to make room for it. The time to do so would be when the structural battery pack / front / rear mega casting redesign happens.

If the structural pack / megacasting doesn't free up space they would have to reduce the size of the frunk and move other equipment out of the way.

whatever the answer is it isn't trivial or they would have already done it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No. Deliveries were 936,222 units in 2021. In the conference call, Tesla confirmed at least 50% growth in 2022. That means at least 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022. Zach is saying this is achievable with just Fremont and Shanghai which is correct. There is nothing in Zach's statement about 2023. 2023 is going to be clearly below 50%. 2024 as well.

Here is that specific section:

You’re flat out wrong. Laughably wrong.

2023:

Fremont 750k
Shanghai 1 million
Berlin 400k
Austin 500k

Total 2.65 million for 2023

2024

Fremont 750k
Shanghai 1.25 million
Austin 1 million
Berlin 750k
Tesla Energy - equivalent of 500k

Total 4.25 million

 

[MartinAustin]

Teslas are being used by an NBA team as a gift to sway the Sports media regarding the All Stars

In 2016 when Leicester City unexpectedly dominated and won the English Premier League, the owner of the club bought BMW i8's for all the team members as a celebration gift. (Instead of Tesla Model S P90D's) I wonder how many of those are still getting driven