Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I think Elon has misjudged and underestimated something about their humanoid robot. I believe TESLA should be able to begin selling them profitably this year and add a significant income stream from them about that soon.

The challenging part of making a useful robot is solving the general intelligence problem. We see that this problem has largely been solved in developing FSD. The robot only has to be smart enough to work in a warehouse or supermarket, moving goods around, where there is no risk of killing anyone through a road driving error.

How much would such a robot cost if they were manufactured at a small scale? I don't see any expensive component in them. Even at the price of a Model 3 they would earn their cost back through wage-substitution in a year.

(I know I am not the first to make this point but I don't want to go back through the thread to find an earlier post.

Random addenda: Wireless charging might be best for them. Small independent robot-training companies could expand their functionality. Dojo could train them to do the complex task of packing groceries.)

I fully expect Tesla to make a bot prototype this year, and perhaps set up small scale production in 2023 or 2024.

I expect the bot (at scale) to cost less than a model 3 mainly because it needs fewer batteries.

At small scale they might be more expensive.

IMO the reason to start ASAP is because like FSD this is an iterative "fleet learning" exercise. So the first bots deployed in factories might be more of a hindrance than a help initially. But the bot becomes useful as soon as it can repeat any task in a well defined environment consistently with a low error rate.

So I think that the bot will start out like the early days of AP 2.0, when most thought it was a regression from AP 1.0.

But it is likely that the bot design itself will rapidly improve and high volume mass production will probably happen 2025 or 2026. A factory churning out up to 1 million bots per year would not be science fiction. It is a compact product with no need for paint.

All those bots learning on the job is a lot of neutral net training, possibly training a different set of nets for different robot tasks. So a bot may run a set of nets suited to what it is doing with each net covering a set of closely related tasks.

That is a lot of training hence Dojo. Using a training the bots in house has the advantage of gaining productivity benefits. But the additional advantage is there is no outside commenary on the error rate and the rate of improvement, the customer will be patient.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Quite the first post, welcome. It is true that FSD, when achieved, will have some pretty far-reaching consequences, depending on some of the decisions Tesla will make. This is why I believe Elon is careful not to paint too detailed a picture at the moment…for one much needs to clarify itself, but also this could be used to spin pre-emptive FUD like, “You’ll be selling fewer vehicles! No more growth!” while omitting the massive software revenue that will dwarf the vehicle revenues.

Just one possible future of many. All eyes on FSD.

Thank you. A related issue I'm thinking about concerning the call. If I remember correctly, Musk made some comment about robotaxis competing with mass transit. I own a few shares of Proterra (electric bus company). One of their metro busses costs around $750,000 and carries perhaps 40 passengers-assuming it's at capacity (and that's at best an educated guess, not really sure just what they seat). Lets go with that-comparison would be a Model Y carrying 4 passengers. 1/10th the passengers, at 1/10th the cost. With no need for a driver. And no need to run that 3/4 million dollar bus around 1/4 full at off hours, with the infinite flexibility of a car, vs a fixed bus route and schedule. Frankly, thinking along these lines makes me think that might not be such a smart investment.

 

[Singuy]

That's not how the fed looks at things. And a recession means a negative growth for 2 qtrs that will put brakes in the economy, decreasing the demand. This should bring back the inflation measures under control, and it is important to do that for a variety of reasons.

Stagflation sets in when inflation expectations get unmoored, and it's easier to control that when inflation reads high and employement is full. So I think fed has to raise rates here, and they are already behind the curve here. This is the consensus view.

Where I differ from consensus is how quickly and easily inflation will come under control. I agree there is a big transitory component to it, driven by supply chain. So I see 6 hikes this year as improbable though it's quickly becoming the baseline in many models.

When you have full employment, high inflation, and practically 0 or negative growth going forward, that just means too much demand isn't the issue, but looks to be a supply issue. The stagflation of the past was caused by high unemployment driving up inflation vs supply chain issue today. So I am not even sure what rate changes will do to demand because the underlying demand is not at record highs, just that supply is at record lows. Rates adjust demand by decreasing, but also decrease supply. You can cause an issue where it's already costing businesses sky rocketing prices to obtain supplies, but now borrowing cost increase which may cause high inflation.

This isn't a normal time when we have ample supply but demand is out of control...aka a heated economy. The economy is on the edge of recession with 0 rate hikes.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

This was what Elon was saying in the earnings call, although he estimated 5x increase in utilization. Tony Seba predicted that transportation as a service will largely replace car ownership and profoundly transform cities by freeing up the land devoted to cars being parked for most of the day. His YouTube videos are great.

If a $60k FSD can operate as a robotaxi, it could provide cheaper transportation than owning a $25k car - if your lifestyle could accommodate that.

A compact car is definitely needed though for a lot of regions in Europe, Japan, etc. It’s very likely that Tesla has one in the works but your guess is as good as mine what form that will take.

You're right of course. Listening to it, I was thinking more about those issues (changes in cities, parking, lifestyle) than in the potential impact on future sales. That just came to me sitting here enjoying some moonshine It really is interesting how much listening to Elon can get you thinking about a potential future and the "big picture". I still want a Cybertruck though! For me personally, given the dump my portfolio has taken in the last few months, that's not happening any time in the near future.

The other item (and I think it was mentioned in passing). Assuming FSD does come to pass in the not-too-distant future, what does that do to the value of cars that don't have it and don't have the potential to upgrade to it? I've been watching FSD beta videos since last spring-the progress from then to the latest 10.9 release is pretty amazing. I'm convinced it's coming-maybe this year, maybe not, but certainly sooner rather than later.

 

[ggies07]

I dunno - to do robotics requires batteries, especially new types, sustainable energy and transportation doesn't necessarily have to require wheels, right? could be legs? rails? etc.?

Honestly, I don't give a shirt about robots and what it can do to the economy when it comes to Tesla. Those cells need to go to batteries for cars or storage. It won't be a fun economy to live in with robots if the Earth's environment becomes miserable.

Tesla does not have this correction "in the bag". They need to drive as hard as possible with this transition.

Ironic if Elon creates the AI and robots and humanity never gets climate change under control......AI FTW.

 

[ZachF]

Interesting, some talks that fed may not raise rates because atlanticfed's estimate for 1q 2022 GDP growth is 0.1%. Aggressive rate hikes = instant recession. Perhaps partial reason for Friday's rally.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

As I said a few pages back, there was such a giant increase in inventories in Q4 that a recession is very likely now because of simple math.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

Some thoughts on earnings & Tesla's future:

Conference call:

Initially, the focus on Optimus and FSD made me uneasy because it sounded like Elon was putting a lot of eggs in one basket with his reply to the analyst regarding FSD unlocking demand. But after thinking about it, it seems more likely that Elon sees the EV business's success as unstoppable now, so he shifted his focus to the next "master plan", as a visionary leader should. He's working on adding multiple new S curves that will start showing results before the EV S curve starts decelerating. And we all know how singularly focused he gets when he's working on something, which comes through in his narrative during the call. What people don't understand is Tesla is much more than Elon now, and even if Elon is focused on the far future, there are tons of super talented employees and execs that are focused on growing the EV business.

Regarding demand / no new models in 2022, I don't think that is actually about relying on FSD to create demand. Likely, they're seeing the EV adoption trend being much stronger than they anticipated, meaning Model 3 and Y can continue to be supply constrained until at least 2024. I'm sure they've timed it so Cybertruck lands at the right time to continue the >50% growth, and are refining the design of the truck and production lines now to make sure production goes smoothly when they need it.

The next few years: EV

• I see the delay of new models as very bullish. 2022 is going to be extremely smooth sailing with increasing margins and lower risk. They're emphasizing a high-margin product that they already know how to build and will focus their efforts on making production even more efficient and cost-effective.
• The price increases from last year are starting to take effect, at a time when supply issues & cost of materials should start to improve. We'll see increased revenue and potentially lower costs this year.
• The chip shortage seems to be easing. This should allow Tesla to produce more with the same footprint, leading to higher production and better margins.
• Batteries are no longer a constraint. This should allow them to ramp the energy business.
• 4680's are starting to go into vehicles. As this ramps, margins should improve
• Analysts started to understand Tesla last year as production ramped, they became profitable, and there was a solid roadmap of new vehicles. This all clicks with a typical auto analyst. This year, I think we'll again be in a situation where analysts greatly underestimate Tesla, since they're creating a new path forward with fewer models and riding the non-intuitive EV adoption S Curve. This has never been done, so each quarter, analysts will be shocked at how they're pulling it off.

2025 - 2030: FSD

• Cybertruck and Semi will have launched, potentially also a smaller hatchback or something, and rather than continue to launch new models, I think Tesla will use this period of time to further ramp up their strategy of 1 product in every segment. Think iPhone lineup, not android.
• FSD will launch but will have gradual adoption as regulations change, people warm up to it, and the software gets better. I'm guessing 2025 for a first launch and 2030 for wide adoption & Robotaxis.
• Production and cost of goods will be refined to the point where Tesla has insane margins and production rate
• Energy will be a huge focus.
• Optimus will start being used at Tesla factories to help with growth (less hiring needed) and reduce costs even further
• Legacy auto shrinks, spins off their EV businesses, or goes bankrupt. The major players are Tesla, China, and a few others

2030 - 2050: Optimus

• Auto industry becomes unrecognizable with Robotaxis dominating the space. Competition arrives but Tesla maintains the lead
• Tesla's EV business becomes more of a recurring revenue & services model
• Tesla is by far the largest company by market cap
• Optimus becomes the major story for Tesla, providing the next leg of growth. It starts as a factory bot for other companies to rent and eventually enters the consumer space
• FSD and Optimus kept Elon working at Tesla for longer than EV alone could, and now he finally retires once Optimus's success is solidified

2050+: Who cares, we're all old and rich

• It doesn't matter that Tesla investors are all millionaires & billionaires because money becomes less important as society changes from a work-to-survive model to work-for-fun now that robots handle the majority of basic jobs

Obviously, nobody can predict that far in the future, but my main takeaway is rather than 2030 being the target and the TAM being auto & energy, we're really looking at a 30+ year growth story with absolutely ridiculous potential. Excuse me while I search my couch.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

2030 - 2050: Optimus

I maybe alone on that but I believe there is large market for simple tasks which Tesla bot should be able to fulfil in span of few years:

• suburban package delivery: get the package out of the trunk, traverse driveway and steps deliver in front of the door
• get the food package, walk to the building, locate right buzzer, buzz wait to open, go to elevator take the right floor
• family members remotely summoning the house bot to complete traverse the house (stairs, doors) to locate and confirm health of infirm person living alone
• taking the dog in/out when owners are away

Those tasks are not much complex than navigate on autopilot. This is not at level of general AI cognition, it is more like German Shepard level of cognition, or maybe even cat level of cognition (traversing the house) but still there is lots of demand for services like that.
IMO this can be done by 2025.

 

[betstarship]

Honestly, I don't give a shirt about robots and what it can do to the economy when it comes to Tesla. Those cells need to go to batteries for cars or storage. It won't be a fun economy to live in with robots if the Earth's environment becomes miserable.

Tesla does not have this correction "in the bag". They need to drive as hard as possible with this transition.

Ironic if Elon creates the AI and robots and humanity never gets climate change under control......AI FTW.

I...agree with you - don't really care how much the economy can be helped by robots. Just care if sustainability is resolved via this company (or others).

Just saying that robots might be an option for that and looking to see that play out. One of the bigger draws about solar+battery is the tremendous amount of (sustainable) energy that'll be available to do anything. Robots sound very much like an outlet for consuming and applying energy in useful ways.

 

[woodisgood]

Honestly, I don't give a shirt about robots and what it can do to the economy when it comes to Tesla. Those cells need to go to batteries for cars or storage. It won't be a fun economy to live in with robots if the Earth's environment becomes miserable.

Tesla does not have this correction "in the bag". They need to drive as hard as possible with this transition.

Ironic if Elon creates the AI and robots and humanity never gets climate change under control......AI FTW.

I think the Bot was inspired by three observations/needs in no particular order. Mars, preventing “bad” AI, and the required labor at home for transitioning us to sustainable energy.

If you consider some of the limiting factors that have kept Tesla/Elon from going as fast as they want (which can never be fast enough for the climate emergency), one of those is labor. The gigafactories must be built. Then the vehicles must be built by a fairly large workforce. Solar panels must be built and installed. Solar tiles must be built and installed. What Tesla is producing (and will) is amazing, but also such a small fraction of what we need globally. Who knows when the bot will be able to contribute meaningfully to Tesla’s mission, but it‘s easy to see why Elon views this as important when they’re going to be (and needing to be) swooping into region after region sucking the labor market dry. It’s reasonable to ask, just as similar questions have been asked about other resources, “Do we have enough willing hands to do this as fast as needed?”

 

[JustSaying]

Balance problem? How many here could do this?

Great Stuff (who owns Boston Dynamics now?)

 

[StealthP3D]

To be clear, Tesla did not delay new models. Volume production CT has been est'd 2023 for several quarters. There was never a schedule to roll out the $25K compact car, beyond aspirational timelines with years-wide estimates.

This "delay" is entirely a narrative of analysts and the financial media.

^^This^^

The auto industry works in a very predictable manner:

Manufacturer's reveal a future vehicle model, tell you it's name and it's specs with an announced launch date. You get to see what it looks like when they pull the sheet off the vehicle.

^^This^^ is not a reveal. You can tell because the car is still under a sheet. There are no specs, you can't see what it will look like because it hasn't even been designed yet. Any dates that Tesla may have mentioned years in advance are not launch dates. A car cannot be said to have been delayed until it's been revealed, and they have announced a date of launch. This will generally be a month and a date although sometimes it's just a model year. This is not what a reveal looks like. At a reveal, the sheet comes off the car, the specs are made public, and a date is announced. That has not happened. We don't even have a model name for this car.

I have always been baffled by the enthusiasm some tesla fans have shown for the $25K car. That's because I've always viewed the $25K car as the car of last resort. That's the car you have to build to increase sales when all the upmarket sales have been fulfilled. You are free to call it a delay if you want but since when does a delayed product signal a bullish development? Usually, a delay refers to a bearish thing, so I'm baffled by the insistence that anyone is sticking their head in the sand by not calling it a delay. It's silly.

 

[2daMoon]

Honestly, I don't give a shirt about robots and what it can do to the economy when it comes to Tesla. Those cells need to go to batteries for cars or storage. It won't be a fun economy to live in with robots if the Earth's environment becomes miserable.

Tesla does not have this correction "in the bag". They need to drive as hard as possible with this transition.

Ironic if Elon creates the AI and robots and humanity never gets climate change under control......AI FTW.

What if robots are the key to increasing EV production to new levels?

What if without robots the ramping of the pace toward controlling climate change is reduced?

What if Elon has improved his 4D chess game and we are still playing catch up in our ever-lagging appreciation of his perspective?

 

[generalenthu]

So I am not even sure what rate changes will do to demand because the underlying demand is not at record highs,

This is plain incorrect. Demand and consumption for goods is not just at a record high, it's substantially higher than the historical goods demand trend. This is because of a major shift from services consumption to goods consumption during the pandemic.

This is also enabled by a sharp jump in transfer payments that was substantially above the lost wages. Obviously the supply chains are in shambles, trying to meet this unprecedented demand. Think of ask the new kitchens, household stuff, etc people bought during the pandemic.

You can cause an issue where it's already costing businesses sky rocketing prices to obtain supplies, but now borrowing cost increase which may cause high inflation.

The increase in borrowing costs would be insignificant compared to the first order effect of reigning in demand.

This isn't a normal time when we have ample supply but demand is out of control...aka a heated economy. The economy is on the edge of recession with 0 rate hikes.

I think it would be instructive to view the macro backdrop from minute 23 in the video below. Further discussion perhaps belongs in a macro thread.

As an investor if you have any misgivings that the fed is going to rescue the markets, now is the time to set that aside. That said, the unstoppable growth of Tesla makes in perhaps one of the few places to ride this storm out, but that again won't be without volatility. And at these levels, we are much closer to the bottom.

 

[MC3OZ]

Honestly, I don't give a shirt about robots and what it can do to the economy when it comes to Tesla. Those cells need to go to batteries for cars or storage. It won't be a fun economy to live in with robots if the Earth's environment becomes miserable.

Tesla does not have this correction "in the bag". They need to drive as hard as possible with this transition.

Ironic if Elon creates the AI and robots and humanity never gets climate change under control......AI FTW.

Bots are a side project more or less totally unrelated to car production.

The amount of batteries used in bots will be a lot less than cars, so the batteries to go in one car might make for example 20-50 bots.

Making bots is mostly a single GA Line, and it is logical to train bots in making bots.

When bots are good at helping make bots, they can be trained to help make cars and batteries.

Tesla hasn't put the expansion of EV and energy storage factories on hold, they are still aiming to produce 20 Million EVs per year by 2030 and 3 TWh of cells in house by 2030.

IMO it is likely that the capex for the bot GA line is a lot less than a car GA line, in fact a totally manual process with a simple conveyor belt and 50-100 workers, might do the job of small scale production. Outside of GA, it is mostly metal casting, plastic moulding, 3rd printing, making/buying small electric motors.

Rightly or wrongly, Elon is worried that a shortage of workers will be a drain on the economy and induce inflation. A shortage or workers or high inflation might also slow down the mission.

But I also think Dave Lee is right, Elon wants to make the bot before others with fewer scruples make it.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

I maybe alone on that but I believe there is large market for simple tasks which Tesla bot should be able to fulfil in span of few years.

• suburban package delivery: get the package out of the trunk, traverse driveway and steps deliver in front of the door
• get the food package, walk to the building, locate right buzzer, buzz wait to open, go to elevator take the right floor
• family members remotely summoning the house bot to complete traverse the house (stairs, doors) to locate and confirm health of infirm person living alone
• taking the dog in/out when owners are away

Those tasks are not much complex than navigate on autopilot. We are not talking level general AI type of cognition, it is more like German Shepard level of cognition, or maybe even cat level or cognition (traversing the house) but still there is lots of demand for services like that.
IMO this can be done by 2025.

From a logical/decision making/"intelligence" standpoint, autonomous driving has to be about the most challenging exercise possible. First you deal with the seemingly infinite number of ways highway designers/traffic planners manage to make intersections, signage, controls, lane selection different, seemingly to defy logic. Who hasn't gotten into a strange city and wondered just what the heck they were thinking coming on some oddball intersection. Where is the "signage"? Over the street? Side of the road? Or painted on the street, where it's worn, or covered with dirt, or just has vehicles over it? Now throw in the infinite amount of challenges of humans doing their best, controlling their vehicles appropriately. Dealing with heavy traffic is bad enough for us humans, let alone a computer. Now throw in the infinite number of ways human drivers, pedestrians and bicycles can do something stupid, unexpected or illegal. I'm not an AI guy, but the effort to "teach" a computer how to handle all those variables and decisions has to be mind-blowing.

Flip side, the "output" from an AI system to control the car is dirt simple. Steer, throttle, brake. Maybe throw in turn signals and horn. All easy to handle.

Flip side, the humanoid robot is the opposite. Decisions and tasks can be pretty basic. Go to this shelf, find this part, pick it up and carry it to the boxing area, stick it in a box. No big deal. But the number of outputs, to match the dexterity of a human, to deal with tactile inputs, is pretty amazing. Things we take for granted, like handling a tape dispenser to seal a box or unwrap bubble wrap from a roll, require a great deal of "feel" and dexterity. Just using your example of taking the dog for a walk-picture the challenges of grabbing the dogs collar, finding the "loop" and attaching a leash. All without hurting the dog.

Exciting times, hope I live long enough to see some of this come to pass!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Something I've been thinking about since the earnings call, and the focus on growth, along with the FSD comments (take timeline as you like). In my generation everyone was anxious to get a drivers license and their own car-it was pretty much a right of passage. These days though, car ownership is less of a issue for many younger people. A fair number choose not to get a car, to rely on mass transit and ride-shares. That leads to a few thoughts. First, cars are an expensive, depreciating asset (Covid times not withstanding) likely the largest most people own. And they get used what, maybe an hour a day? (just a guess). So, lets say FSD and the ability to robotaxi your car comes out-what kind of daily operation can we get? It's never going to be 24 hours a day of course, but for argument lets say 10 hours a day. This assumes more people continue the trend of robotaxi/ride share rather than ownership, and that grows as more vehicles become available via robotaxi. Think about that-10 hours a day of operation instead of 1. That means theoretically that the vehicle is serving 10 people a day, rather than 1. Which means....potentially, a 90% decrease in vehicle sales. OK, those won't be exact numbers but the trend could be there.

So, following that-is perhaps Musk/Tesla focusing on sales and growth, focused on capturing as many sales as possible before that eventual downturn occurs? I'm not saying sales won't continue to rise for Tesla, I think they will continue to take market share from other companies. But the total number of vehicles sold is likely to decline at some point. When you think about it, every Tesla built since what, '17, can theoretically be turned into a robotaxi. Once FSD is cracked, this could happen far more quickly than we'd dream. Much like this whole translation to EV in the first place. Far fetched perhaps, but maybe part of the though process.

And continuing that thought process...given robotaxi expansion, is there really that much of a need for the $25K car? (let alone pulling other resources to get there).

While I agree with your premise, I think it will take some time for people to grow comfortable with the paradigm of personal vehicle ownership going away. As you've mentioned, younger people are more willing to accept it, but as a rule they aren't the ones buying $50K Teslas anyway.

 

[Thekiwi]

Some thoughts on earnings & Tesla's future:

Conference call:

Initially, the focus on Optimus and FSD made me uneasy because it sounded like Elon was putting a lot of eggs in one basket with his reply to the analyst regarding FSD unlocking demand. But after thinking about it, it seems more likely that Elon sees the EV business's success as unstoppable now, so he shifted his focus to the next "master plan", as a visionary leader should. He's working on adding multiple new S curves that will start showing results before the EV S curve starts decelerating. And we all know how singularly focused he gets when he's working on something, which comes through in his narrative during the call. What people don't understand is Tesla is much more than Elon now, and even if Elon is focused on the far future, there are tons of super talented employees and execs that are focused on growing the EV business.

Regarding demand / no new models in 2022, I don't think that is actually about relying on FSD to create demand. Likely, they're seeing the EV adoption trend being much stronger than they anticipated, meaning Model 3 and Y can continue to be supply constrained until at least 2024. I'm sure they've timed it so Cybertruck lands at the right time to continue the >50% growth, and are refining the design of the truck and production lines now to make sure production goes smoothly when they need it.

The next few years: EV

• I see the delay of new models as very bullish. 2022 is going to be extremely smooth sailing with increasing margins and lower risk. They're emphasizing a high-margin product that they already know how to build and will focus their efforts on making production even more efficient and cost-effective.
• The price increases from last year are starting to take effect, at a time when supply issues & cost of materials should start to improve. We'll see increased revenue and potentially lower costs this year.
• The chip shortage seems to be easing. This should allow Tesla to produce more with the same footprint, leading to higher production and better margins.
• Batteries are no longer a constraint. This should allow them to ramp the energy business.
• 4680's are starting to go into vehicles. As this ramps, margins should improve
• Analysts started to understand Tesla last year as production ramped, they became profitable, and there was a solid roadmap of new vehicles. This all clicks with a typical auto analyst. This year, I think we'll again be in a situation where analysts greatly underestimate Tesla, since they're creating a new path forward with fewer models and riding the non-intuitive EV adoption S Curve. This has never been done, so each quarter, analysts will be shocked at how they're pulling it off.

2025 - 2030: FSD

• Cybertruck and Semi will have launched, potentially also a smaller hatchback or something, and rather than continue to launch new models, I think Tesla will use this period of time to further ramp up their strategy of 1 product in every segment. Think iPhone lineup, not android.
• FSD will launch but will have gradual adoption as regulations change, people warm up to it, and the software gets better. I'm guessing 2025 for a first launch and 2030 for wide adoption & Robotaxis.
• Production and cost of goods will be refined to the point where Tesla has insane margins and production rate
• Energy will be a huge focus.
• Optimus will start being used at Tesla factories to help with growth (less hiring needed) and reduce costs even further
• Legacy auto shrinks, spins off their EV businesses, or goes bankrupt. The major players are Tesla, China, and a few others

2030 - 2050: Optimus

• Auto industry becomes unrecognizable with Robotaxis dominating the space. Competition arrives but Tesla maintains the lead
• Tesla's EV business becomes more of a recurring revenue & services model
• Tesla is by far the largest company by market cap
• Optimus becomes the major story for Tesla, providing the next leg of growth. It starts as a factory bot for other companies to rent and eventually enters the consumer space
• FSD and Optimus kept Elon working at Tesla for longer than EV alone could, and now he finally retires once Optimus's success is solidified

2050+: Who cares, we're all old and rich

• It doesn't matter that Tesla investors are all millionaires & billionaires because money becomes less important as society changes from a work-to-survive model to work-for-fun now that robots handle the majority of basic jobs

Obviously, nobody can predict that far in the future, but my main takeaway is rather than 2030 being the target and the TAM being auto & energy, we're really looking at a 30+ year growth story with absolutely ridiculous potential. Excuse me while I search my couch.

Bots are significantly easier to launch than FSD as there is far less of a safety issue. non-humanoid robots are already dispersed widely in manufacturing etc, and are already entering warehouse environments WITHOUT anything close to the advanced vision AI Tesla has already developed. There is no regulatory hurdle to cross for Tesla to release the first generation Optimus.

 

[Singuy]

This is plain incorrect. Demand and consumption for goods is not just at a record high, it's substantially higher than the historical goods demand trend. This is because of a major shift from services consumption to goods consumption during the pandemic.

This is also enabled by a sharp jump in transfer payments that was substantially above the lost wages. Obviously the supply chains are in shambles, trying to meet this unprecedented demand. Think of ask the new kitchens, household stuff, etc people bought during the pandemic.


The increase in borrowing costs would be insignificant compared to the first order effect of reigning in demand.



I think it would be instructive to view the macro backdrop from minute 23 in the video below. Further discussion perhaps belongs in a macro thread.

As an investor if you have any misgivings that the fed is going to rescue the markets, now is the time to set that aside. That said, the unstoppable growth of Tesla makes in perhaps one of the few places to ride this storm out, but that again won't be without volatility. And at these levels, we are much closer to the bottom.

I do believe rates will increase. I also believe that without supply chain issues easing, we are just redistributing profit from businesses to banks. Rate goes up, Tesla decrease price, customer pays exactly same monthly payment, just more to the banks.

 

[SarahsDad]

Things we take for granted, like handling a tape dispenser to seal a box or unwrap bubble wrap from a roll, require a great deal of "feel" and dexterity. Just using your example of taking the dog for a walk-picture the challenges of grabbing the dogs collar, finding the "loop" and attaching a leash. All without hurting the dog.

Neural nets have already allowed robot "training" to occur much easier and quicker. Here's a video of a robot hand being trained to solve Rubik's cube. And this was in 2019. Put the firepower of a nearly trillion dollar market cap company behind this problem and it doesn't seem so unsurmountable.