Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

I disagree, the piece starts like this:

"Schiffsladung um Schiffsladung trifft auf dem Kontinent der deutschen Konkurrenz von Mercedes, BMW und Audi ein. Diese Hersteller will Tesla das Fürchten lehren."​

The second part, translated literally: "It is these carmakers Tesla wants to teach to be scared." - no good English idiom for it. It's a neutrally written statement, without coming to a conclusion.

The article starts positively, is overall positive, with a few negative details mentioned that aren't serious enough to keep Germans from test driving it - and we all know the drug dealer trick Tesla is using: "The first test drive is free!" - with a very predictable outcome.

Very little to no FUD overall. The Spiegel is a super important paper, it's the opinion leader of the political left in Germany. Very good article.

Thanks, and like I said, this was a summary translation from a German friend who is very suspicious of BEVs being practical, and very partial to vehicles manufactured in Germany. Including my bolded type variation on the headline, just something I came up with to capture the sense I got from him.

However, he did recently complete the Monte Carlo car rally in an ancient Mazda Miata, customized with some of his own DIY work. He said that the route over the mountains to France could not be done in an EV, and was flabbergasted when I sent him a screenshot of the Tesla superchargers along his route, actually a screenshot of a planned route using abetterrouteplanner that would require only moderate length stops. He is a smart guy, concerned about climate change, and currently in love with hydrogen fuel cell technology.

 

[EVMeister]

Thanks, and like I said, this was a summary translation from a German friend who is very suspicious of BEVs being practical, and very partial to vehicles manufactured in Germany. Including my bolded type variation on the headline, just something I came up with to capture the sense I got from him.

Friends don't mistranslate for friends. Graben his butt.

He is a smart guy, concerned about climate change, and currently in love with hydrogen fuel cell technology.

Perhaps not so smart after all.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

We could be seeing an all time high today for Norway registrations. Already up to 362. Usually registrations continue to be put into the system until around 3 or 4 pm my time(Pacific time zone).

This is fantastic! We hit 4K Model 3 in Norway yesterday, 4500 today, and could hit 5K tomorrow with a big (but non-record) day.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Passed two of these heading north of Antwerp in Belgium, likely for NL

 

[ZsoZso]

He is a smart guy, concerned about climate change, and currently in love with hydrogen fuel cell technology.

The highlighted part sounds like a logical contradiction to me

 

[Lessmog]

The rumour is that there was a problem with the certificate of conformity that Tesla supplied to the Swedish agency Transportstyrelsen. Not sure who's to blame. Deliveries in February was delayed but are in full swing now.

Tesla owners in Sweden were already quite miffed at Transportstyrelsen because the agency constantly mislabel power figures of Tesla's which then messes with insurance premiums. And then there was the news about Transportstyrelsen threatening to stop all Tesla sales a while ago which was just FUD.

Transportstyrelsen is generally viewed poorly lately. Not only do they have a badly disguised dislike for anything Tesla, and probably all EV, but last year (or was it the year before?) a scandal almost toppled the government but at least two ministers got sacked, due to a borked appropriation deal where some top secret tasks were "accidentally" outsourced to non-vetted companies, which led to severe risk for state secrets of national security importance. In short, the agency seems to be (still) run by morons or worse.

What can you do? You still need license plates and they come from this national monopoly. Like the EV subsidies do. Patience is needed. Plenty of it.

 

[mongo]

Just a data point. I have a Model 3 performance ordered 2 weeks ago, scheduled originally for Tuesday delivery, now to Thursday, and I still don't have a VIN 2 days before the new delivery, meaning my car isn't even built. As far as I know, performance orders get first priority for delivery. How many performance model 3 orders does Tesla have???

No VIN does not mean the car you will receive has not been built (3 is not custom build to order like the S and X were). Rather, they have not yet matched you with a vehicle in (or arriving in) your region.

 

[printf42]

Edit: Bad Google Translation. Below 160Wh/kg, subsidy is lower, but above gets 1x.

Full policy document below:

http://jjs.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefagui/201903/P020190326640122645440.doc

There is also an “efficiency factor” where if you exceed a threshold you get more.
The threshold is defined in the attachment here:
http://jjs.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefagui/201802/t20180213_2815574.html
It has different formulas for different weight, Model 3 SR with curb weight 1611kg falls in >1600 category. Where the formula is consumption per 100km is 0.0045*weight + 12.33 = 19.58 (kWh/100km)
Model 3 LR has 600+km range with 75kwh, translate to 12.5kwh/ 100km, beats the threshold by >35%.
SR with less weight should be even better. So they are eligible for 1.1x subsidy. Which would be 27.5k rmb.

Not that it would make much of difference, since Tesla is building GF3 for logistical efficiency and tariff avoidance, not for subsidies.

But, this rule was set to very much looks like only Tesla would take the most advantage of it.
Maybe they are just making sure only the best EVs would get the most subsidies and Tesla just happens to be making them.

 

[TheMrX]

anecdotal info :

Just got off the phone with Tesla service center in Montreal because I didn't get any response from Tesla on my trade-in value (form filed last week).

They told me that they normally answer trade-in in 24 hours, but due to high volume of deliveries this will take more time.

They have 30 model 3 deliveries for today and more (did not told me exactly how much) tomorrow.

 

[Fact Checking]

Fresh end of Q1 Gigafactory Model 3 battery pack production "sentiment" updates from Carsonight (he is a reliable source, he is retired and has friends and family working at the GF):

• "They only started up production of the SR Model 3 a couple of weeks ago, and my understanding is that GF1 is currently running at 6k plus Model 3 battery packs per week. I am told the hard limit at Fremont is 7k Model 3s per week so I don't know how many SR Model 3s they can fit in, but I do know the goal at GF1 has constantly been 7k packs per week since late November."
• "The problem is that Tesla is battery cell starved, and will be until they expand GF1."
• "My alternate theory, which I personally subscribe to, is that Fremont can make 7K Model 3s per week but Panasonic cannot produce enough cells for that many LR Model 3 battery packs. Until they can expand at GF1, the SR Model 3 keeps a promise, but enen more it allows maximum production at Fremont."
• "Firing on all cylnders. No idea that number cylinders. No idea the number of SR packs, but I am told the goal is 7k Model 3 packs per week."
• "I think the production push is Model 3s right now. Tesla has been telling employees that 7k Model 3s per week are essential. I think Tesla will wait to use 2170 cells on anything else until after GF1 expansion."

Rather bullish.

 

[Pras]

As much as I am happy for the SP rebound, there is no peace of mind until we reach $300. Anything under $300 seems like a victory for FUDsters

 

[SW2Fiddler]

If they do split the NN up into two separate chips, may I suggest naming them "Wintermute" and "Neuromancer", and their onboard controller "3Jane"?

I dunno. I'd like my "Tesla" car to have a "Lovelace" chip and a "Babbage" chip.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fresh end of Q1 Gigafactory Model 3 battery pack production "sentiment" updates from Carsonight (he is a reliable source, he is retired and has friends and family working at the GF):

• "They only started up production of the SR Model 3 a couple of weeks ago, and my understanding is that GF1 is currently running at 6k plus Model 3 battery packs per week. I am told the hard limit at Fremont is 7k Model 3s per week so I don't know how many SR Model 3s they can fit in, but I do know the goal at GF1 has constantly been 7k packs per week since late November."
• "The problem is that Tesla is battery cell starved, and will be until they expand GF1."
• "My alternate theory, which I personally subscribe to, is that Fremont can make 7K Model 3s per week but Panasonic cannot produce enough cells for that many LR Model 3 battery packs. Until they can expand at GF1, the SR Model 3 keeps a promise, but enen more it allows maximum production at Fremont."
• "Firing on all cylnders. No idea that number cylinders. No idea the number of SR packs, but I am told the goal is 7k Model 3 packs per week."
• "I think the production push is Model 3s right now. Tesla has been telling employees that 7k Model 3s per week are essential. I think Tesla will wait to use 2170 cells on anything else until after GF1 expansion."

Rather bullish.

Except for TE Not good to hear the words "cell starved" when Elon and Tesla have said TE will double, maybe triple in 2019. Hoping that they're cell starved AFTER increasing TE ouptput. Otherwise sounds like everything going smoothly.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'm not quite ready to start putting the ModHammer down on the SlobberFest regarding FC, KR and such -

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

as just a single case of many in point;


nevertheless, these are more than passing juvenile and are becoming quite tiresome.

~~~Vetinari~~~

Don't worry baby, you know you'll always be our favourite. ❤

 

[ls7corvete]

Except for TE Not good to hear the words "cell starved" when Elon and Tesla have said TE will double, maybe triple in 2019. Hoping that they're cell starved AFTER increasing TE ouptput. Otherwise sounds like everything going smoothly.

TE can use 18650 from panasonic and samsung. How many they can supply, or how many tesla plans to use, I have no idea.

 

[EVNow]

InsideEVs has some actual data:
Tesla Model 3 Tops European Sales Chart For Premium Midsize Sedan
View attachment 390507

The biggest market share loser is BMW - lost nearly 50% of the market share - from 24% to 13%. Audi & Alfa Romeo Giulia lost some 6 pp.

 

[lklundin]

Fresh end of Q1 Gigafactory Model 3 battery pack production "sentiment" updates from Carsonight (he is a reliable source, he is retired and has friends and family working at the GF):

• "They only started up production of the SR Model 3 a couple of weeks ago, and my understanding is that GF1 is currently running at 6k plus Model 3 battery packs per week. I am told the hard limit at Fremont is 7k Model 3s per week so I don't know how many SR Model 3s they can fit in, but I do know the goal at GF1 has constantly been 7k packs per week since late November."
• "The problem is that Tesla is battery cell starved, and will be until they expand GF1."
• "My alternate theory, which I personally subscribe to, is that Fremont can make 7K Model 3s per week but Panasonic cannot produce enough cells for that many LR Model 3 battery packs. Until they can expand at GF1, the SR Model 3 keeps a promise, but enen more it allows maximum production at Fremont."
• "Firing on all cylnders. No idea that number cylinders. No idea the number of SR packs, but I am told the goal is 7k Model 3 packs per week."
• "I think the production push is Model 3s right now. Tesla has been telling employees that 7k Model 3s per week are essential. I think Tesla will wait to use 2170 cells on anything else until after GF1 expansion."

Rather bullish.

Right.

What is the BEV metaphorical equivalent of "Firing on all cylinders"?

"Torquing on all motors"?

 

[Antares Nebula]

I am calling up from here. This was so overdone. Investing more dough. Buying calls. Selling puts. Please do not twitter me to death again Elon.

Not an advice. And please keep in mind I am most useful as a contrarian indicator, much to my chagrin...

Possibly. But bear in mind that we gapped up, and now there is a gap between 261 and 264. We may go back and fill that gap OR it could be a so-called "island reversal" -- bullish.

 

[homer214]

I’m flabbergasted at the numbers coming out of Europe so early in 2019 and this is just the beginning of more good news. Kudos to our EU brothers and sisters.

Odds are improving daily that Tesla will have healthy production and delivery numbers and even a PROFIT in Q1. Better SP are coming. Keep the faith.

 

[lklundin]

I’m flabbergasted at the numbers coming out of Europe so early in 2019 and this is just the beginning of more good news. Kudos to our EU brothers and sisters.

Odds are improving daily that Tesla will have healthy production and delivery numbers and even a PROFIT in Q1. Better SP are coming. Keep the faith.

A wild card is the take rate for EAP and FSD, which could raise the ASP significantly at basically zero marginal cost.

An isolated few anecdotes indicate rather high take rates, do we have a broader collection of the AEP/FSD take rate?