Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todesbuckler]

Reuters is reporting that Panasonic starts 4680 cell mass production before the end of March:

Panasonic to begin mass producing new Tesla battery by end-March 2024

Panasonic Corp said on Monday it will begin mass production of a new lithium-ion battery for Tesla Inc before the end of March 2024 at a plant in Japan.

www.reuters.com

On the investor relations website of Panasonic is a press release available from today mentioning mass production of 4680 cells to begin in the fiscal year ending in March 2024 (at the Wakayama Factory):

https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2022/02/en220228-6/en220228-6-1.pdf

 

[CorneliusXX]

Methinks that our assumptions that other OEMs are using the chip shortage to mask their demand problems is accurate.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498146817812627460

Have we seen dealer lots start to fill up again? That would also add strong support to the demand theory.

 

[Todesbuckler]

Reuters is reporting that Panasonic starts 4680 cell mass production before the end of March:

Panasonic to begin mass producing new Tesla battery by end-March 2024

Panasonic Corp said on Monday it will begin mass production of a new lithium-ion battery for Tesla Inc before the end of March 2024 at a plant in Japan.

www.reuters.com

On the investor relations website of Panasonic is a press release available from today mentioning mass production of 4680 cells to begin in the fiscal year ending in March 2024 (at the Wakayama Factory):

https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2022/02/en220228-6/en220228-6-1.pdf

Reuters updated their article. The timeline is now identical to the Panasonic press release: "TOKYO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp (6752.T) said on Monday it will begin mass production of a new lithium-ion battery for Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) before the end of March 2024 at a plant in Japan."

 

[CorneliusXX]

Reuters is reporting that Panasonic starts 4680 cell mass production before the end of March:

Panasonic to begin mass producing new Tesla battery by end-March 2024

Panasonic Corp said on Monday it will begin mass production of a new lithium-ion battery for Tesla Inc before the end of March 2024 at a plant in Japan.

www.reuters.com

On the investor relations website of Panasonic is a press release available from today mentioning mass production of 4680 cells to begin in the fiscal year ending in March 2024 (at the Wakayama Factory):

https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2022/02/en220228-6/en220228-6-1.pdf

In the press release Pana say they are working on 4680 in multiple locations around Japan. Do we know if this has cannibalised any of their production of 18650s? Just wondering of Pana are still making enough 18650s that the theoretical max volume for S/X is still 100k vehicles/year, or if reduced cell production might limit that number?

The Tesla shareholder presentation mentions 100k S/X capacity in Fremont, however cell capacity could differ from vehicle line capacity.

I hadn't heard of 18650s being used for other purposes - so if Pana is still producing at a rate to meet 100k S/X a year, where are those other cells going?

 

[lascavarian]

Reuters is reporting that Panasonic starts 4680 cell mass production before the end of March:

Panasonic to begin mass producing new Tesla battery by end-March 2024

Panasonic Corp said on Monday it will begin mass production of a new lithium-ion battery for Tesla Inc before the end of March 2024 at a plant in Japan.

www.reuters.com

On the investor relations website of Panasonic is a press release available from today mentioning mass production of 4680 cells to begin in the fiscal year ending in March 2024 (at the Wakayama Factory):

https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2022/02/en220228-6/en220228-6-1.pdf

Seems a bit tepid. The preparation for the beginning of the roll out of mass production. It is good but doesn’t seem like a quick ramp up. It does confirm their belief in the form factors success.

 

[CLK350]

Help needed! Calling any of you brilliant bunch for help converting someone from an Elon (and hence Tesla) hater to a Tesla lover!....
Do any of you have some great links saved for info to give such a person?

I gave a lift to a colleague yesterday who has always hated Elon and never been in a Tesla...spent the whole ride answering the typical questions you would imagine. Made good progress and she would like to know more about Tesla and why they are so good, etc etc.

I haven't yet compiled links to any great articles or have any examples written down, can you share any that you may have please?

Thanks in advance

Good intro would be that first group interview did thanks to Viv (@flcnhvy on Twitter, changed to X after she was harassed by TeslaQ*) who out of the blue once tweeted to Musk, something to the effect that since the mass media wasn't providing truthful information on Elon, why didn't he do one with his fans .. to which out of nowhere and to her surprise he said, "Sure" ..

There's also Ashley Vance's Elon Musk autobiography; even just reading about how he eventually convinced Elon to allow him access is worth a read if only for entertainment value. This book is widely available in all public libraries. Read the comments there too

And a good compendium of Elon's main interviews - with an English/ German transcript is also available at Karen Mehnert's website (all done on her own time & money, gives you an idea of the strength and depth of Elon's followers) - the one with the new Chief of the US Space Force is notable too, re that general is asking questions useful for any organization - and Elon answers generously - some day soon these precepts will find their place in Harvard's MBS curriculum (revised for the new crop of managers like Tesla's Zach Kirckhorn))
Every Elon Musk Interview

The key 2019 interview mentioned above: Third Row Tesla Podcast – Episode 7 - Elon Musk's Story - Director's Cut

This podcast is quite long, but worth watching in its entirety over time as Elon talks about a huge number of topics
Timestamps (from UPDATE: This Third Row Podcast Featuring Tesla's Elon Musk Is A Must Watch)

01:21 - Can you talk about the way you engage with customers online?
03:21 - Why do you like Twitter so much?
06:38 - What sticks out to you out of the things you've achieved? Answer somehow get to stocks and money - and economics and other topics.
14:01 - Talking about this location
15:38 - Not enough people understand how Elon tries to make big changes with small products
17:03 - Did you always know you wanted to use business to solve problems?
26:23 - Why go and put your money to SpaceX?
28:32 - Why did you try to get capacitors into EV's back then?
30:31 - Maxwell
31:27 - Other car companies batteries
35:09 - Why was China the place chosen for GF3?
36:39 - How did Tesla manage to get the first fully owned car factory in China?
38:06 - How much have the production hell lessons helped you for the China factory?
41:28 - What are the misconceptions about your personal history that you would want to correct?
43:31 - Share more about your upbringing and why you came to North America.
53:00 - What did people think about Zip2?
58:26 - Kimbal shows up and they talk about Zip2
1:03:45 - Where did you get the technical knowledge to build Zip2?
1:05:14 - Do you still code?
1:19:42 - What made you do PayPal?
1:28:07 - So what made you part ways with PayPal?
1:29:31 - You seem to be attracted to crazy ideas, how do you find the courage?
1:32:57 - You love code but you don't seem to be bullish on Bitcoin, why is that?
1:35:40 - Would there be a direct democracy in Mars? What kind of laws?
1:42:35 - Start of SpaceX
1:49:30 - Did you think you are going to do dozens of launches a year?
1:53:45 - Early SpaceX
1:58:46 - Start of Tesla

A good compendium of Elon's main interviews - with an English/ German transcript is also available at Karen Mehnert's website (all done on her own time & money, gives you an idea of the strength and depth of Elon's followers)

Every Elon Musk Interview

A collected list of all Elon Musk interviews starting in 1999. All publicly available talks and speeches by Elon Musk. Endless knowledge.

www.everyelonmuskinterview.com

 

[nativewolf]

Seems a bit tepid. The preparation for the beginning of the roll out of mass production. It is good but doesn’t seem like a quick ramp up. It does confirm their belief in the form factors success.

Pretty clear on all accounts and all reports that the 4680 is scaling very slowly. EM-"Next year Tesla will be battery constrained"- it is very clear what EM meant by that during the investor presentation. Both Berlin and Austin were really designed to produce cars with this form factor. CT Semi require it.

 

[Usain]

Methinks that our assumptions that other OEMs are using the chip shortage to mask their demand problems is accurate.....

Ford shut down production of the Mach E and F-150. I have trouble believing that they are having demand problems with those vehicles.

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

 

[CLK350]

[OT] Laptops are more interchangeable than they used to be, see details in this OT thread so if repairs can't be done fast, there's an easy workaround- hah ha Tesla takes this to another level per Munroe Tesla teardown -

@Curt Renz" .. My PC was in the car trunk and had to be sent to Dell for repair. That was long delayed due to a parts shortage. Now its back and good as new, so I can again participate in TMC.

 

[SageBrush]

Ford shut down production of the Mach E and F-150. I have trouble believing that they are having demand problems with those vehicles.

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

I agree, there is both a drop in demand and ongoing parts shortages. Overall though, it is more than a bit silly to hype the demand angle when car dealer lots are depleted.

 

[chiller]

Pretty clear on all accounts and all reports that the 4680 is scaling very slowly. EM-"Next year Tesla will be battery constrained"- it is very clear what EM meant by that during the investor presentation. Both Berlin and Austin were really designed to produce cars with this form factor. CT Semi require it.

I think you have this backward. They specifically said 4680 would not be a limiting factor for 2022.

 

[mongo]

Pretty clear on all accounts and all reports that the 4680 is scaling very slowly. EM-"Next year Tesla will be battery constrained"- it is very clear what EM meant by that during the investor presentation. Both Berlin and Austin were really designed to produce cars with this form factor. CT Semi require it.

If you're going to use quotes /" , then use the actual words. "battery constrained" is not found in the Q4 call transcript Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
What Drew and Elon did say: 2022 is not cell constrained. Cell supply is important in 2023.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

Sure. Yeah, yeah, sure. So throughout 2021, we focused on growing cell supply alongside our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers is actually -- it sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022, or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans based on the information we have.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Absolutely. And just to repeat Drew's point, we are still -- we still expect to be part or primarily chip-limited this year. So that's the thing -- that's actually the driver.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

Yeah.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

And that chip limitation should alleviate next year. And then probably, we transition into a cell limitation battery, you know, total gigawatt-hours of cell limitation, which is when the 4680 will become very important.

 

[nativewolf]

I think you have this backward. They specifically said 4680 would not be a limiting factor for 2022.

Chips would not be limiting factor in 2023 and (they said this with very specific wording) 4680 would not be the limiting factor in 2022. BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CHIPS. It was too cute in the specificity on the language. Chips are the constraint this year. Next year it would be batteries. Look at the 1000000 cell announcement (couple of thousand packs) for Kato. A year into beta production.

They are flat out telling you that until 2024 they are production constrained. Panasonic is saying 4680 in 2024. I don't have stock or any personal financial position. I do want to buy a CT, desperately need one so I need to see 4680. However, I grew up in a family of stock brokers. I know how to listen and then observe. 4680 won't be here in the amounts we all need/want until 2024. I have accepted this though I'm disappointed. For me it means repairing an old f350 for 3 more years because I wont get a CT in 2024, I'll be lucky to get one in 2025. My truck has 350k miles. I could put 100 a day on 340 days a year over the next couple of years. It's a lot of repair and time wasted. Sigh.

EM will tell you FSD is going to be here next year (from 2016 til now) but even he won't tell you that they have solved 4680 production challenges. If they had solved this...it would be a game changer and 2023 volume estimates could explode. EM, god bless him, is not shy about being optimistic. Nobody on the investor presentation said they'd be pumping out 4680 in 2023. Not a word of it. They are managing around the lack of 4680 and rather than feeling pessimistic, feel proud to own a company stock that can engineer such optionality. Amazing. They'll sort out the 4680 production and it will slowly ramp all this year. Then next year start scaling one hopes.

 

[nativewolf]

If you're going to use quotes /" , then use the actual words. "battery constrained" is not found in the Q4 call transcript Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
What Drew and Elon did say: 2022 is not cell constrained. Cell supply is important in 2023.

fair enough, thank you for the exact wording. It was very nuanced. I helped lawyers write nuanced wording like that for 15 years.

 

[jeewee3000]

They are flat out telling you that until 2024 they are production constrained.

Tesla is always production constrained: demand is larger than what they can produce. I don't see this changing in the coming years.

Regarding 4680: you read too much into what Drew and Elon said.

The short story is: Kato Road has been succesful (january 2022 made up for 50% of every cell produced there since its inception: the ramp is real). Now they will produce 4680 at Austin and ramp during 2022. This will allow Tesla to install 4680 capacity in Berlin not too much later, possibly later this year.

In 2023 the 4680's will be coming along nicely, ramping further. Any help from third party suppliers adds to the bottom line. You can choose to invest AFTER the 4680's have ramped but I doubt you'll be able to buy TSLA under $1000 then.

 

[jbcarioca]

That DOES spell “Tesla”. In Martian, as I knew it when just a wee Martianlet (Then I grew up to be a Martinet…..

"...grew up to..."? One undoubtedly learns to deploy the whip to ensure obedience from the earliest age, when it might be deployed to facilitate compliance from other children and small animals. Surely you should have known that from infancy, if indeed you ever did know it.
Note: Please advise is all this is on-topic.
AFAIK Buggies often came with longer versions of the martinet but they have been ineffective for BEVs unless one needs one for the odd UBER driver.

 

[Singuy]

Chips would not be limiting factor in 2023 and (they said this with very specific wording) 4680 would not be the limiting factor in 2022. BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CHIPS. It was too cute in the specificity on the language. Chips are the constraint this year. Next year it would be batteries. Look at the 1000000 cell announcement (couple of thousand packs) for Kato. A year into beta production.

They are flat out telling you that until 2024 they are production constrained. Panasonic is saying 4680 in 2024. I don't have stock or any personal financial position. I do want to buy a CT, desperately need one so I need to see 4680. However, I grew up in a family of stock brokers. I know how to listen and then observe. 4680 won't be here in the amounts we all need/want until 2024. I have accepted this though I'm disappointed. For me it means repairing an old f350 for 3 more years because I wont get a CT in 2024, I'll be lucky to get one in 2025. My truck has 350k miles. I could put 100 a day on 340 days a year over the next couple of years. It's a lot of repair and time wasted. Sigh.

EM will tell you FSD is going to be here next year (from 2016 til now) but even he won't tell you that they have solved 4680 production challenges. If they had solved this...it would be a game changer and 2023 volume estimates could explode. EM, god bless him, is not shy about being optimistic. Nobody on the investor presentation said they'd be pumping out 4680 in 2023. Not a word of it. They are managing around the lack of 4680 and rather than feeling pessimistic, feel proud to own a company stock that can engineer such optionality. Amazing. They'll sort out the 4680 production and it will slowly ramp all this year. Then next year start scaling one hopes.

Not a word except "we are not battery constrained" and "model Y from Texas in production have 4680 structural packs". So if you think Tesla is going to make 10 cars a day out of Texas because they haven't solved 4680 production then be my guest.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't have stock or any personal financial position. I do want to buy a CT, desperately need one so I need to see 4680. However, I grew up in a family of stock brokers. I know how to listen and then observe.

My condolences. I fired my stockbroker in 1997 and that was a good thing.

Q: How do you know a stockbroker doesn't know what they are talking about?
A: Thier lips are moving.

 

[Mengy]

My condolences. I fired my stockbroker in 1997 and that was a good thing.

Q: How do you know a stockbroker doesn't know what they are talking about?
A: Thier lips are moving.

I have two friends who are financial advisors and for years they've been begging me to let them manage my portfolios. I keep refusing though because I don't want my stocks "managed", I buy and hold long term 95% of the time, I always have. Last year my one bud asked to know how my stocks have done over time because he was trying to convince me he could get more gains for me. I showed him my gains over time and he thought I was trying to trick him!

My experience tells me this: time IN the market beats TIMING the market. I've ran numbers and scenarios hundreds of times over a few decades and I always come up with that one rule being true. I don't need to pay someone to do that for me.

I don't know why Nativewolf doesn't own TSLA but if he is an investor then I believe he should.

 

[SageBrush]

If you're going to use quotes /" , then use the actual words. "battery constrained" is not found in the Q4 call transcript Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
What Drew and Elon did say: 2022 is not cell constrained. Cell supply is important in 2023.

Even Tesla leaves wiggle room when they make announcements. It is always going to be possible to parse their words different ways. My POV is that Tesla avoided spelling out 4680 production expectations so meeting those expectations says about nothing. As for expected production that is not 4680 dependent, Elon was clear that chip supply is a larger constraint than cell supply.