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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable


It's cold in hell today.

The article goes to great pains to avoid any mention of Tesla, gushing about the Rivian R1T .. .. /s

Rivian producing about 10-15 thousand trucks a year. Okay - good luck with that

TESLA.Rivian.jpg
 
Reminder about what Tesla's advantage is re Dojo - not only conceptual at the algo levels, but also heftily aided in real time computational tasks

The jury is out really on dojo. But even if it’s great it’s not like Google can’t spin up any number of TPUs to train their nets. If it takes a little longer than Tesla it’s not a big deal.

My bet here is on Tesla for sure, but don’t rule out Google in the bot competition.
 
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The jury is out really on dojo. But even if it’s great it’s not like Google can’t spin up any number of TPUs to train their nets. If it takes a little longer than Tesla it’s not a big deal.

My bet here is on Tesla for sure, but don’t rule out Google in the bot competition.

And where will Google get its dynamic 3D real time Neural Net training set? From cameras looking into people's brains while they surf or shop? /s
 

bkp_duke

Well-Known Member
May 15, 2016
7,419
36,091
San Diego, CA
The article goes to great pains to avoid any mention of Tesla, gushing about the Rivian R1T .. .. /s

Rivian producing about 10-15 thousand trucks a year. Okay - good luck with that

View attachment 808026
Still, it is like the Superbowl commercials, say EV and everyone will think Tesla.

They are bold to point out the petrol heads are slow on the uptake, I liked that tone.
 

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Supporting Member
Dec 19, 2018
4,359
53,380
Houston/Galveston

Gwynne Shotwell:

  • “Personally, I believe the allegations to be false; not because I work for Elon, but because I have worked closely with him for 20 years and never seen nor heard anything resembling these allegations,” Shotwell wrote.
 
My current though is this narrative permeates all corners through the next 2 months waiting on 2Q numbers.

That gets the call writers more aggressive and the expectations low, then......bam. June P&D hits and we're off to $1350+.

Just my guess. Don't kill the eternal optimist!

Hard to think it happens now tho since Shanghai is now flying and Austin/Berlin are ramping. I think the word is out and the shorts are just still winning the daily battles.
Although I don't think it should be I bet it's going to be more drawn out than that. I don't expect any solid increases between now and September. I think Q2 numbers are going to be used hard by FUD to discredit and play down TSLA, then after AI day 2, Shareholder meeting for split, and Q3 numbers looking really good it rockets from there.
 
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Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
16,214
31,730
NC
Get an RV! You’ll have the best internet in the park.



FWIW you don't need a RV, the FAQ says you can use it anywhere (but not WHILE moving)

We just ordered one for our house because it allegedly ships immediately to all areas, and we've been waiting for the home unit we ordered Feb 2021 to ship and it still has not.

Service on the RV unit is more expensive (as is the HW)- and there's no guarantee of service level (basically they're deprioritized behind normal users) but it's still likely gonna be better than the best we can get today.
 

heltok

Active Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,718
17,092
Sweden
And where will Google get its dynamic 3D real time Neural Net training set? From cameras looking into people's brains while they surf or shop? /s
Not sure if I am answering the right question, but anyway. Google maps have lots of mapping cars with cameras gathering data. They also have android phones taking tons of pictures and videos.

The main struggles Google seems to have is that they struggle with scaling real world hardware and iterating quickly. They seem to have too many phds who care more about finding the theoretically optimal solution than being an agile startup willing to breaking things, find out where they are wrong and iterate quickly like Tesla are doing extremely well.

What Tesla have done setting up the autolabeller stack is not an easy feat that competitors can easily duplicate. It required lots of machine learning ninjas with lots of experience and high intelligence working very long hours in a low bureaucracy environment. You should listen to karpathy’s early videos and his tweets, it’s very important to get things right from the start and to be extremely diligent in what you add to your dataset. A lot of this has to be done by intuition, which is not easy to duplicate.

 
FUD can hurt Tesla and TSLA in the short term.

But every day Tesla’s enemies spend focusing on how to smear Elon instead of bettering their product…every investigative documentary attempting to slow down FSD’s progress instead of working on their own AI, is another day where Tesla has moved the ball considerably forward.

Tesla’s enemies focus all their energy on slowing down the leader. Tesla spends all their energy getting further ahead.

I know my money is with the right team.
 
I don't know but we also don't know for Tesla either. A bot walking around is not the same as a driving car, so getting good real world training data is problematic for both firms.

Tesla has literally a million cars on the road with cameras rolling as drivers experience every possible real-world training set situation. There is no one with better access to training data for self driving than Tesla.
 

wipster

Meanwhile I was still thinkin'...
Supporting Member
Nov 10, 2013
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Did you know that article is three weeks old?

Here's the- most relevant comment that explains the discrepancy here:



So, it's FUD to report this as a statistical indicator of quality.
Actually it was written in January, which was discussed a few pages back. We already quoted that comment. Surprised at you Stealth, you're normally on top of these things my friend!
 

SOULPEDL

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
4,686
20,725
Arizona
And where will Google get its dynamic 3D real time Neural Net training set? From cameras looking into people's brains while they surf or shop? /s
Funny, I was just thinking about how robots will learn. So just like the car's rotated POV in the 3D world, a robot should be able to view from the side (observe someone else), and rotate that task perspective back to it's own first person. Monkey see, monkey do. (Not to offend monkeys or nothing). I think that's what we do anyway. OK, I'll go smoke some more...
 
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Actually it was written in January, which was discussed a few pages back. We already quoted that comment. Surprised at you Stealth, you're normally on top of these things my friend!

I'm more surprised at you for posting a story that was months old and already discredited in the comments! ;)
 

wipster

Meanwhile I was still thinkin'...
Supporting Member
Nov 10, 2013
3,847
19,036
Kennewick, WA
I'm more surprised at you for posting a story that was months old and already discredited in the comments! ;)
Already addressed that too... and apologized for wasting people's time! Catch up dude... Start on page 17114, which starts with a posting of yours... LOL

Wasn't actually my fault as it reposted today. I think they're recycling FUD.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
10,039
50,880
Philadelphia, PA
Although I don't think it should be I bet it's going to be more drawn out than that. I don't expect any solid increases between now and September. I think Q2 numbers are going to be used hard by FUD to discredit and play down TSLA, then after AI day 2, Shareholder meeting for split, and Q3 numbers looking really good it rockets from there.
Logically that makes some sense, though it's looking more and more like Elon's comment of 2Q being similar to 1Q is realistic.

But TSLA is not logical. It's share price isn't dictated primarily by the value of the company, it's moved around by it's massive options market.

With share prices this low(or in an alternate example very high), it's too easy to sell weekly options and profit as the SP either treads water or inches up into the fall.

There's just too many factors converging on a company that's about to jump from 7.37 TTM EPS to maybe 10. And then to 12. I think plenty of people know this and can start manipulating the call side of the options market and share price itself to cause a squeeze whenever they think the time's right. It sure as hell ain't now! Could be next Thursday for all we know.

We get too wrapped up in "everyone hates Tesla". These down times are just MM's and hedgies making money one way. They're totally fine manipulating it the other way too.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2019
5,206
53,372
Seattle
Logically that makes some sense, though it's looking more and more like Elon's comment of 2Q being similar to 1Q is realistic.

But TSLA is not logical. It's share price isn't dictated primarily by the value of the company, it's moved around by it's massive options market.

With share prices this low(or in an alternate example very high), it's too easy to sell weekly options and profit as the SP either treads water or inches up into the fall.

There's just too many factors converging on a company that's about to jump from 7.37 TTM EPS to maybe 10. And then to 12. I think plenty of people know this and can start manipulating the call side of the options market and share price itself to cause a squeeze whenever they think the time's right. It sure as hell ain't now! Could be next Thursday for all we know.

We get too wrapped up in "everyone hates Tesla". These down times are just MM's and hedgies making money one way. They're totally fine manipulating it the other way too.
I really don't know how options would really work with TSLA trading at 600/share or even lower in the 500's for an extended period of time(more than 2-3 months). Sure for the next month and a half it's fear mongering. But when Q2's earnings come and pass, all eyes point to Q3.

And if Shanghai starts pumping out 80-90k/month starting in July combined with Berlin/Austin hitting the part of their ramp where they materially add to Tesla's deliveries and thus earnings, plus the upcoming split.........I just don't see how any fund would dare try and hold a significance number of puts lower than 600 or sell calls into that set up. The momentum and trades will all be completely lopsided to the upside and adding buying pressure....and nonstop pressure at that. For at least the next 8-10 quarters straight

So I'll kinda repeat what I've been saying for months, I really feel like this is the end of TSLA being the king of options trading activity. The gulf between bulls and bears will shrink as Tesla's earnings continue to grow in scale, it's P/E continuing to compress, as TSLA gains investment grade ratings from S&P/Moodys. The implied volatility will be sucked dry because the P/E compression has taken away all of the downside risk.

And that's when I think the way TSLA trades will be eerily similar to Apple's where the stock action was very consistent. Wouldn't vary that much during the quarter and would increase in value as\ steady % quarter after quarter.
 
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TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
10,039
50,880
Philadelphia, PA
I really don't know how options would really work with TSLA trading at 600/share or even lower in the 500's for an extended period of time(more than 2-3 months). Sure for the next month and a half it's fear mongering. But when Q2's earnings come and pass, all eyes point to Q3.

And if Shanghai starts pumping out 80-90k/month starting in July combined with Berlin/Austin hitting the part of their ramp where they materially add to Tesla's deliveries and thus earnings, plus the upcoming split.........I just don't see how any fund would dare try and hold a significance number of puts lower than 600 or sell calls into that set up. The momentum and trades will all be completely lopsided to the upside and adding buying pressure....and nonstop pressure at that. For at least the next 8-10 quarters straight

So I'll kinda repeat what I've been saying for months, I really feel like this is the end of TSLA being the king of options trading activity. The gulf between bulls and bears will shrink as Tesla's earnings continue to grow in scale, it's P/E continuing to compress, as TSLA gains investment grade ratings from S&P/Moodys. The implied volatility will be sucked dry because the P/E compression has taken away all of the downside risk.

And that's when I think the way TSLA trades will be eerily similar to Apple's where the stock action was very consistent. Wouldn't vary that much during the quarter and would increase in value as stead % quarter after quarter.
Or will the options market grow a will of its own and create volatility sufficient to maintain it's volume? Aren't we already seeing that?
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
10,039
50,880
Philadelphia, PA
Toyota doing it's best to close the gap to Tesla production. Cutting 100k to 850k due to "chips".

 

StarFoxisDown!

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2019
5,206
53,372
Seattle
Or will the options market grow a will of its own and create volatility sufficient to maintain it's volume? Aren't we already seeing that?
Not really.

We’re in a market wide sell off, steeper/faster sell off than ever before. But say things just flatline from here for the macro market….. that’s not going to stop Tesla from posting rapid earnings growth, quarter after quarter for the next two years.

So it still creates a dynamic where the trading action will be very one sided unless MM’s get TSLA at least back above 1,000….if not 1250 by the end of the year. The P/E compression from Tesla’s earnings growth waits for no one
 

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