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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
12,834
88,168
Tesla friendly place
The conclusion I've drawn from the last few months of market behavior is that it really doesn't matter what company you invest in. A company is a company. The financial quality of an individual company is irrelevant. Record results? Record profits? Industry-leading margins? Doesn't matter. If the chat app I use to send pics of my junk to my mistress isn't showing stellar results, then everyone's in trouble.
Is true.
 
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Reactions: MC3OZ and saniflash

Rarity

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jan 29, 2009
1,226
5,736
After todays Snap mess, Twitter looks even worse.

I don’t believe Elon can possibly have outside funding
at the $54 price level, and that is not helping tesla
stock.

Until this issue is clarified, the stock may be under selling pressure.

It seems obvious to me that Musk benefits greatly by Twitter's stock price declining. He has cash in hand and those investors who are coming along for the ride don't care if its $54.20 or some other number.

Twitter has a very weak hand, so $54.20 is just a placeholder figure. Don't believe anybody who puts artificial constraints on Musk's actions. Musk will name his price as long as its reasonable. That is, if he wants to finish the transaction.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
10,178
52,045
Philadelphia, PA
Picked up a 400 Jun 24 call for 347.

Wow that is tasty.
There's a handful of hardcore TMCers who sold at (the first) 1200 and can now jump back in to capture this part of the S-curve with similar leverage. Can't even fathom how much money these hooligans will have in 2yrs.

Maybe we'll get an island invite?
 

Nocturnal

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
8,125
52,343
Deepening Crisis!
Now we are only down 5.3%!
*pops champagne

(only half joking)

There's a handful of hardcore TMCers who sold at (the first) 1200 and can now jump back in to capture this part of the S-curve with similar leverage. Can't even fathom how much money these hooligans will have in 2yrs.

Maybe we'll get an island invite?
I trimmed decently at $1200. Unfortunately, I diversified those profits into other stocks and said profits are no more. That will teach me to diversify.
 
Now we are only down 5.3%!
*pops champagne

(only half joking)
And when we reach 700 again:

45e.jpg
 
Based on sentiment and conclusions here today, I'm tempted to call bottom. But I'll give it the usual 3 days.

From a practical long-term perspective, I'm pretty confident this is the bottom here around $630. What I mean by that is even if the macro continues to deteriorate some before recovery, and TSLA briefly touches $595 or even $575, it doesn't really matter in the big picture. If you zoom out in 3 years and look at the chart, $630 will essentially be the same point as $575. I don't see TSLA going lower than that without some TSLA specific bombshell new development that is fundamentally bad for Tesla's future.

People buying here will be looking back at their buys here in a couple of years, maybe much sooner, with very fond memories.
 
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traxila

Active Member
Supporting Member
Nov 25, 2012
2,810
20,952
NYC
From a practical long-term perspective, I'm pretty confident this is the bottom here around $630. What I mean by that is even if the macro continues to deteriorate some before recovery, and TSLA briefly touches $595 or even $575, it doesn't really matter in the big picture. If you zoom out in 3 years and look at the chart, $630 will essentially be the same point as $575. I don't see TSLA going lower than that without some TSLA specific bombshell new development that is fundamentally bad for Tesla's future.

People buying here will be looking back their buys here in a couple of years, maybe much sooner, with very fond memories.
This is my belief as well. We are at a price point where unless we are all completely wrong the share price will be much higher in two years, even if the SP continues down to 400 due to macros from here, a couple of years from now you will not care where exactly you bought the shares.

Not an advice....
 
There must be a point where the shorts realize they can't drive things any lower and try to force the pendulum in the other direction. Eventually the easy money will be going long. The big question is when "eventually" is.

Smart money is at the feeding trough right now.
 
There must be a point where the shorts realize they can't drive things any lower and try to force the pendulum in the other direction. Eventually the easy money will be going long. The big question is when "eventually" is.
Most shorts seem to never think enough is enough.. they keep feeding until the market turns and a squeeze happens. I doubt this will be any different.
 
After todays Snap mess, Twitter looks even worse.

I don’t believe Elon can possibly have outside funding
at the $54 price level, and that is not helping tesla
stock.

Until this issue is clarified, the stock may be under selling pressure.

Don't be silly. Everyone knows there will be no Twitter deal at the $54 price level. In other words, the concern you raise isn't valid because no one believes Elon will be paying $54 for Twitter. He has made that more than clear.
 
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The Nasdaq holding 11,100 (again so far) might be a sign of bottom too. On the 20th we shot below, but stabilized at 11,100 before rallying in power hour. On the 12th, we hit a low of 11,108. We have hit this number 3 times in less than 2 weeks without breaking down so far. Now the more times support is tested, it tends to weaken. That could easily be going on here and the market could break to the next level down.

Now is this a triple bottom? We are clearly in a downtrend. So check there. The lows are basically flat. Check there. The rebound here really needs to get to 11,500 to show the resistance. 2/3 it has hit there with a false breakout. Lastly, there needs to be decreasing volume. The Nasdaq on the 12th had ~6.7b in volume. On the 20th 5.4b in volume. Now today's volume thus far is slightly outpacing the 20th's, but is dying off now. If we end up under 5b in volume (and I think there is a good chance), we might be seeing the formation.
 
Toyota doing it's best to close the gap to Tesla production. Cutting 100k to 850k due to "chips".

On the topic of the competition is coming, I mean dying.

Do you see any cities here associated with a car manufacturer?

ytmwh5d5rb191.png
 
Tesla has literally a million cars on the road with cameras rolling as drivers experience every possible real-world training set situation. There is no one with better access to training data for self driving than Tesla.

You need some more Zen training ;) I am not talking about FSD for cars, but Tesla Bot navigation. Of course Tesla rules on FSD for cars and hopefully solve that problem.

But bots walking around in a warehouse is not cars driving in Los Angelas....so I was replying to someone's comment that Tesla was a leader in this because they have lots of training data and I am saying they don't...they don't have billions of walked miles by Tesla Bots controlled by humans to use to train their Neural Nets like they do for cars.

Do they have more expertise in navigation than google/deepmind??? For sure they do and at least for general real world navigation that should give them a huge lead in this particular arena...particularly around the idea of taking multiple cam inputs and making real time vectorized representation of the world from that set of inputs. Also their investment in simulated environments should help them train the bots on simulated real world environs like warehouses, homes, etc.
 

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