Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

The cost of oil isn't going up due to supply.

Willingness to extract it is going down. Oil producers have lost faith in the future of oil so rather than invest in future production, they are returning money to their shareholders (and themselves) as quickly as possible. The longer and deeper this oil shortage is, the better off the people who own these assets are.

This is why Musk was pushing for more oil recently. Demand for EVs climbed way before this recent spike in oil prices. We're at a point where the oil price increase is destabilizing the economy far more than any positive effect on EV sales.

(emphasis mine)

Not entirely sure if you were refuting the point I was trying to make, but I think the highlighted point you make above is in line with my sentiment of "many factors" leading to the likely greater cost of oil as time progresses...

 

[nativewolf]

Most people around me in old Europe are not having (more) kids because housing costs too much (among other expenses) or because taking the time to care for their children would force them to work less (i.e less resources to support the family).

Maybe there's a middle ground between being so poor you're procreating lavishly, and so rich you don't even want kids.

Hoping for technological solution is okay but maybe we can start looking at the socioeconomic situation as it is: money keeps accumulating in the hands of already-rich boomers who'll wait for their death to see their wealth being transmitted to already-rich kids– all the while more and more people believe that he re-distribution of inheritance from ultra rich families should be taxed even less. But I'm pretty sure people will riot earlier than that, and "technologicial disruption" as a solution for social issues will be less of a priority. Sigh.

It is a complex question. Female literacy is generally the best predictor of falling birth rates. But again, very complex.

 

[bkp_duke]

That's a fallacy Tu quoque defense - Wikipedia

No, it's not.

 

[JoRoMo]

this from the "eff your feelings" crowd? really?

i dont recall saying i hated anyone. (most of my friends probably think of me as an Elon fanboy)

«It’s 100% his own doing. The well-deserved hate is in response to his own choices of what subjects to sound off about.» counts close enough for argument’s sake IMO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

(emphasis mine)

Not entirely sure if you were refuting the point I was trying to make, but I think the highlighted point you make above is in line with my sentiment of "many factors" leading to the likely greater cost of oil as time progresses...

As time progress......until the house of cards falls. We're likely to see oil at ATH levels for the foreseeable futures until EV/Renewable production capability reaches the inflection point demand. Once that happens, its a quick and swift collapse of the price of oil and the curtain closes. You'll see mass layoffs in the fossil fuel industry, refineries abandoned with all the select few oil companies surviving off the limited demand that's left (for things EV's/Renewable can't replace)

 

[bkp_duke]

Why does China still have a limit on number of children? Currently it is set at 3.

Because like all governments they are SLOW to address problems.

Was 1 Child policy, then 2 Child policy, then last year population decline estimates scared the @#$% out of them and they upped it to 3 in Sept 2021.

 

[thx1139]

LoL!

What support? The current administration HATES him and Tesla because they are not unionized and don't contribute to their piggy bank.

Do we REALLY have to have this conversation again? "Mary, you led!" - need we say more?

This is the TSLA investment thread. We talk about lots of fiscal things that effect Tesla and its financials. Why ignore this:

Tesla Pushes For Stricter CAFE Penalties In USA - CleanTechnica

Because Tesla only sells electric cars which come under the ZEV category, the company has excess regulatory credits and can effectively sell them at a 100% profit. CAFE standards increase their value.

cleantechnica.com

And this

CAFE Lives! - Biden Doubles Down Orders EPA To Re-raise Emission Standards

Washington DC December 20, 2021; Seeking Alpha Reported that The battle over auto industry emissions is back on after the Biden administration raised fuel-efficiency standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks to a fleetwide average of 55 miles a gallon by model year 2026. That mark is up...

www.theautochannel.com

When Tesla Q1 earnings came out and regulatory credits was $679 million which more than double previous quarter and I believe like double what anyone projected.

So yeah GM and Ford got photo opps and Tesla got $.

 

[nativewolf]

There are also plenty of counter-examples. A quick google search of anti solar state legislation reminds us that Florida (sunny red state) had a big effort to kill rooftop solar (currently defeated IIRC but could come back), as did Kansas (very red state), as does Ohio (red and getting redder).
I don't think it is simply a red/blue left/right thing.
I think in this instance, the nature of local, small-scale solar is so disruptive to the revenue model of the odd, semi-public, semi-private patchwork of utilities that exists in the US means that many utilities will fight it. Like all bureaucracies (private or public) they reflexively try to defend their turf when it is at risk of being taken away.
In addition, yes, NIMBYism exists and due to it being a local force (often applied against wind projects more than solar), it often outweighs the more-distant global good of fighting climate change ... regardless of the political leanings of the majority of people in a given area.
A lot of case-by-case work needs to be done to keep utility companies from stifling the renewables transition. I seem to recall these folks did a lot of research and work in that regard:

RMI

Not so directly Tesla-car-related, but I would still love to hear more Tesla solar discussed here. I have been waiting a long time to see that bust out bigger than it has.

It is one of the failures of management. The energy side of things has not kept pace and market share has been slipping. This is dwarfed by success in auto.

 

[thx1139]

Because like all governments they SLOW to address problems.

Was 1 Child policy, then 2 Child policy, then last year population decline estimates scared the @#$% out of them and they upped it to 3 in Sept 2021.

So why not just get rid of it all together.

 

[nativewolf]

This is the TSLA investment thread. We talk about lots of fiscal things that effect Tesla and its financials. Why ignore this:

Tesla Pushes For Stricter CAFE Penalties In USA - CleanTechnica

Because Tesla only sells electric cars which come under the ZEV category, the company has excess regulatory credits and can effectively sell them at a 100% profit. CAFE standards increase their value.

cleantechnica.com

And this

CAFE Lives! - Biden Doubles Down Orders EPA To Re-raise Emission Standards

Washington DC December 20, 2021; Seeking Alpha Reported that The battle over auto industry emissions is back on after the Biden administration raised fuel-efficiency standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks to a fleetwide average of 55 miles a gallon by model year 2026. That mark is up...

www.theautochannel.com

When Tesla Q1 earnings came out and regulatory credits was $679 million which more than double previous quarter and I believe like double what anyone projected.

So yeah GM and Ford got photo opps and Tesla got $.

And Biden did more for the environment than all Tesla sales this year. For those condemning Biden at every turn just something to think about.

 

[bkp_duke]

this from the "eff your feelings" crowd? really?

i dont recall saying i hated anyone. (most of my friends probably think of me as an Elon fanboy)

Your posts, for years, have CLEARLY demonstrated that anyone that doesn't "groupthink" with your leftist ideas is a moron/idiot/dumba$$/evil person. If that's not "hatred", it's running right up next to it as at minimum "derision".

 

[nativewolf]

So why not just get rid of it all together.

Because they feel the need to control everything.

 

[Ogre]

(emphasis mine)

Not entirely sure if you were refuting the point I was trying to make, but I think the highlighted point you make above is in line with my sentiment of "many factors" leading to the likely greater cost of oil as time progresses...

Clarifying? Adding to?

I don't think your point needed refuting so much as lacked a bit of context.

I think why the cost of oil is going up is as important as the fact that it is going up. If we'd hit actual peak oil and supply was drying up, the knock of effects would be different from the current state where they can maintain production at current levels for some time.

 

[EVMeister]

Don't you love these "extended weekends". Maybe this thread should just be put on pause for a bit.

 

[replicant]

It's never OK to hate someone just for having a different opinion.

Most people don't hate Elon for just having opinions. Elon is not just thinking and expressing himself like us: he's buying a platform and intends to have his personal idea of free speech applied to everyone on the platform. He's also using Twitter to broadcast political views (but also direct provocations and endorsements) through a Twitter account that the both the SEC and the company's board recognized as an official channel of communication regarding the company. He could perfectly tweet his political opinions through @elonmusk and reserve the tweets about Tesla's announcements through @tesla – but that would give less power to his political views so no, he'll mix everything and let everyone filter things out or fight. And Elon will complain. Every. Single. Time.

I'm glad I'm not hearing every other companies' owners and CEOs pushing their political views in myface when I'm trying to follow their businesses (e.g as an employee or a shareholder). But it is obviously 100% OK for these people to have and express their opinions, however different and divisive. Again: the issue is not the opinions, it's how you're using (or abusing) your power to express them.

 

[oldTAVguy]

LoL!

What support? The current administration HATES him and Tesla because they are not unionized and don't contribute to their piggy bank.

Do we REALLY have to have this conversation again? "Mary, you led!" - need we say more?

That's a fallacy Tu quoque defense - Wikipedia

@bkp_duke's comment has nothing to do with a "you did it, I can do it defense." The current administration's dislike of Elon is based on a lot of things (union support, uncontrollable, not left wing enough, etc...) not "you did it, I can do it."

 

[bkp_duke]

this is a dangerously stupid thing to pretend to believe, and it's exactly how bigotry and misinformation thrives and survives, when people make the stupid mistake of believing all opinions are valid.

many opinions are worthy of extreme condemnation.

What I have observed is that generally those people that think others' opinions should be silenced are those that have trouble with making valid arguments to defend why ONLY THEIR opinion is the correct one.

It's a classic narcissistic trait - people that think they are much smarter than they actually are, and when confronted, have trouble actually defending their opinions. SO LIKE ANY CHILD, THEY RESORT TO NAME CALLING AND FOOT STOMPING.


If you are so arrogant to think your opinion is the only right one, and you are not willing to engage with people of drastically different opinions to expand your and their knowledge, then you have failed on the most basic level in society as a "contributing member".

 

[thx1139]

@bkp_duke's comment has nothing to do with a "you did it, I can do it defense." The current administration's dislike of Elon is based on a lot of things (union support, uncontrollable, not left wing enough, etc...) not "you did it, I can do it."

I honestly dont think that the current administration disliked Elon. Maybe they do now, but that was after how Elon responded to not getting photo opps. I believe they did the photo opps because they know backing faster transition to EVs is going to harm autoworkers in states that the Democratic Party must hold. It was political theater, not a slight to Elon. Elon cant or wont see that. The disruption caused by govt support of fighting climate change puts a gun to Democratic Party head. The Oil Industry is fighting this, the auto industry has fought it and still does. The Insurrectionist Party fights this and would love to use Biden praising Tesla would be used by Insurrectionist Party to go after auto workers in rust belt states. Like they did Coal workers when HRC suggested that Coal workers could retrained because Coal industry would go away.

 

[Buckminster]

There has been some nice political posts upthread. Presumably they won't be allowed come tomorrow. Can I setup a dedicated Elon politics thread? I will personally guarantee that discussion won't descend into the gutter....

 

[replicant]

What I have observed is that generally those people that think others' opinions should be silenced are those that have trouble with making valid arguments to defend why ONLY THEIR opinion is the correct one.

It's a classic narcissistic trait - people that think they are much smarter than they actually are, and when confronted, have trouble actually defending their opinions. SO LIKE ANY CHILD, THEY RESORT TO NAME CALLING AND FOOT STOMPING.


If you are so arrogant to think your opinion is the only right one, and you are not willing to engage with people of drastically different opinions to expand your and their knowledge, then you have failed on the most basic level in society as a "contributing member".

Even Elon said "There's freedom of speech and freedom of reach".

So maybe we can allow Elon to express his views, but also allow people to publicly condemn them (e.g express complete disapproval of) and to criticize which power he uses/abuses to express them – i.e through a Twitter account that Tesla's board and SEC recognized as an official channel for the company's public information, and through a platform that he intends to own and shape to his personal preferences.

But I guess as I have a very different views on freedom of speech than most Americans. For instance, where I live (France) companies can't finance political candidates and campaigns, individuals are limited to a few thousands euros per year of political donations, and political expenses are capped (and partially financed by the public). Things aren't perfect and we also have our -gates, of course. But we just don't like billionaires having so much influences on everyone, although we're still letting a few families own 80% of private media (see ownership dataset on Github).