Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

That young guy is the same person who purposefully backed a Model 3 into the concrete block wall of a shop they rented at about 7 mph, while acting like it was a 'whoopsie', so they could prove how long it took to get repaired and how much it would cost. Then they took it to their friend who runs an auto repair body shop. These people HATE Tesla, but they ACT like they LIKE them in order to appear more credible. Now that I see they are doing the same thing to Ford, I suspect the father (not in this video) and son might have an interest in an auto dealership chain or an oil field. They never stop trying to act unbiased while trashing EV's.

[...] The aerodynamics of the tow vehicle matter a lot less when it is towing a big box. These clowns should be ashamed at themselves the way they put seemingly limitless energy into making EV's look worse than reality. It's OBVIOUS when you hear them talk. Truely disgusting.

sounds like a case for the new Tesla lawyer pitbull team to me

 

[Mengy]

That young guy is the same person who purposefully backed a Model 3 into the concrete block wall of a shop they rented at about 7 mph, while acting like it was a 'whoopsie', so they could prove how long it took to get repaired and how much it would cost. Then they took it to their friend who runs an auto repair body shop. These people HATE Tesla, but they ACT like they LIKE them in order to appear more credible. Now that I see they are doing the same thing to Ford, I suspect the father (not in this video) and son might have an interest in an auto dealership chain or an oil field. They never stop trying to act unbiased while trashing EV's.

In this video they designed the course to end 1200+ vertical feet higher than the starting point and into a stiff cross-headwind,(which they blew off as a cross-wind). In one shot you can see the trees by the side of the road strongly leaning from the wind they are driving into. Cross headwinds are the worst possible wind for efficiency because of what they do to the airflow. The trailers are much taller than a normal travel trailer of that size and have a large luggage rack on the rear of the roof that looks like it was designed to catch as much wind as possible while still looking to most people like a reasonable item to bolt to your trailer's roof. The rack is barely visible in most shots but it acts as a big parachute. No self-respecting EV RV'er would have that on their roof. Everything about the trailer is designed to look like a reasonable choice, something an EV owner might actually want to tow, while actually being deceptively draggy. They changed the default trailer brake setting in the Lightning to a more active setting than the default (this causes the trailer brakes to kick on sooner and harder rather than relying more on the regen of the tow vehicle).

Considering all this, straight into a stiff wind, I was slightly impressed it didn't die sooner! The Cybertruck will do better towing silly things like this but maybe not by as much as the EPA ranges will indicate. The aerodynamics of the tow vehicle matter a lot less when it is towing a big box. These clowns should be ashamed at themselves the way they put seemingly limitless energy into making EV's look worse than reality. It's OBVIOUS when you hear them talk. Truely disgusting.

TFL does seem rather anti-EV sometimes, I've noticed that as well. Rivian shunned them originally from all of their initial press events, but eventually Rivian worked out a deal with them. I have a hunch Rivian simply didn't want their negative bias coming to otherwise positive events.

 

[JustMe]

I am tired of RoboThis, RoboThat. Too much of talk before getting basic FSD going with reasonable success. I am sure they will get there, but can Musk wait for that day before making these kind of statements?

Nope

 

[SO16]

That young guy is the same person who purposefully backed a Model 3 into the concrete block wall of a shop they rented at about 7 mph, while acting like it was a 'whoopsie', so they could prove how long it took to get repaired and how much it would cost. Then they took it to their friend who runs an auto repair body shop. These people HATE Tesla, but they ACT like they LIKE them in order to appear more credible. Now that I see they are doing the same thing to Ford, I suspect the father (not in this video) and son might have an interest in an auto dealership chain or an oil field. They never stop trying to act unbiased while trashing EV's.

In this video they designed the course to end 1200+ vertical feet higher than the starting point and into a stiff cross-headwind,(which they blew off as a cross-wind). In one shot you can see the trees by the side of the road strongly leaning from the wind they are driving into. Cross headwinds are the worst possible wind for efficiency because of what they do to the airflow. The trailers are much taller than a normal travel trailer of that size and have a large luggage rack on the rear of the roof that looks like it was designed to catch as much wind as possible while still looking to most people like a reasonable item to bolt to your trailer's roof. The rack is barely visible in most shots but it acts as a big parachute. No self-respecting EV RV'er would have that on their roof. Everything about the trailer is designed to look like a reasonable choice, something an EV owner might actually want to tow, while actually being deceptively draggy. They changed the default trailer brake setting in the Lightning to a more active setting than the default (this causes the trailer brakes to kick on sooner and harder rather than relying more on the regen of the tow vehicle).

Considering all this, straight into a stiff wind, I was slightly impressed it didn't die sooner! The Cybertruck will do better towing silly things like this but maybe not by as much as the EPA ranges will indicate. The aerodynamics of the tow vehicle matter a lot less when it is towing a big box. These clowns should be ashamed at themselves the way they put seemingly limitless energy into making EV's look worse than reality. It's OBVIOUS when you hear them talk. Truely disgusting.

I do agree with you but I was surprised to hear him speak well of Tesla and their charging network at 11:08 in this video.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm super fired up to not hear about them on earnings calls even after he says he's gonna talk about them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1545166492408328193

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Starlink Maritime (and Aviation) are going to be game-changers for SpaceX, and eventually Tesla.

The $5k/mo may seem steep, but it’s nothing compared to the current competition. Those are priced per GB; you can get about 25 GB/mo for the same $5k if you sign a one-year plan (SL is month-to-month). A 100 GB plan is more like $12k. SL is unlimited.

The terminals, which are $10k for two from SL compare to about $25k each for legacy systems.

And the existing services are delivered by a few geosynchronous satellites, with far higher latency and less bandwidth than the SL constellation that’s in low earth orbit. About the only tech advantage the legacy stuff has is with current Southern Hemisphere coverage, which SL will cover within a year.

Luxury yachts, of course, will go the SL route (except, I’m sure, Mr. Bezos’ new one). But commercial shipping is the important thing here. Operators want constant connection to their ships, and of course the crew wants internet. This will save them something like 70% on their usual usage.

Eventually, I believe they’ll be able to engineer a terminal integrated into Teslas, though it is pretty complicated for two-way comms. Then premium connectivity will go to SL instead of cell providers. Synergy or something.

Source: a couple decades of working on back end satellite systems, specifically including billing for mobility products for a major sat services provider. I know how bad the systems are because I wrote some of them…

 

[Knightshade]

Eventually, I believe they’ll be able to engineer a terminal integrated into Teslas, though it is pretty complicated for two-way comms. Then premium connectivity will go to SL instead of cell providers. Synergy or something.

How many times do we need to cite even Elon saying Starlink replacing cellular on Teslas is a dumb idea before people stop thinking it's the future?

Elon dismissing this idea goes back to at least the Q4 2019 investor call BTW, where Adam Jonas was asking about it-- first Elon explained the focus for SL was on

high bandwidth, low latency connectivity for homes and businesses and I guess aircraft and boats and that kind of thing

and then pointed out the antenna was too big and non-aero to make sense for the cars anyway.

When Jonas followed up and said yeah yeah but what if you magically make it tiny and aero? The response?

it’s most possible we’ll just use the cellular connectivity, just use 5G would be the recommendation, certainly in like any cities or something like that, but if you’re out in the countryside and there’s not good cell connectivity, then maybe you could connect with the Starlink antenna

He goes on to explain that it might be useful in such remote areas but was a pretty obtuse case. Like I said- great for RVs who might do that.... you can even throw the RV one in your cybertruck and put it up while camping out somewhere.

But for normal cars it makes no actual sense at all compared to using cellular.

None of that has changed since, and Elon has repeated versions of this answer since then when asked.



Apart from the power draw and physical space needed for a dish, most cars don't have a constant 100 degree uninterrupted line of sight to the sky either.

Whereas cell coverage is already almost universal, requires NO line of sight at all so it works where most people actually live (cities), requires far less power, takes up vastly less physical space, and costs only a few bucks a month per car in bulk for the service.


Starlink is a fantastic solution to many other problems-- including ships, planes, RVs, remote cell tower backhaul, providing wifi at SC locations, and underdeveloped country and rural home internet. It's been absolutely phenomenal for us, who previously had NO option better than 8 Mb DSL for any amount of money.

Starlink is a dumb solution to an already solved problem in the case of normal car connectivity though.

 

[thesmokingman]

I do agree with you but I was surprised to hear him speak well of Tesla and their charging network at 11:08 in this video.

It was hilarious at the end when he goes I didn't wanna charge the car anyways. lol

 

[Xepa777]

LOOOOOOOVE ROBOVAN!!!

I have a feeling this is going to be "highly configurable" (1) so it's a single platform that can be adapted to many use cases (rather than building several lines for various transport mechanisms like delivery trucks or soccer mom vans or #VanLife) and (2) as Elon said, will be their robotaxi platform ONCE they finish it. That way they don't have to risk building out the infrastructure and risk heavy capex for a FSD product that might not make timeline/be regulatorily approved.

Brilliant move. Brilliant. I want it!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Outperformance for the day went from 3.5X to just above 2X and trending to barely even hold the 2X

Consider me……..not amused

I'm with @StarFoxisDown! Lucid up 8%, Rivian up 6%, Ford up 5% and GM up 4%. And GameStop up 15% (ya, ya, 4-for-1 split announced, but their stock price is already low so they are now going after highschool kids lunch money, not to mention they just fired their CFO). Tesla simply moving with the macros, so I am disappointed. Still a lot of stupid (we don't call people stupid) money out there. Looking forward to when we see a clear divergence between Tesla and the macros. We are not there today. Not even close.

 

[JustMe]

There sure is a lot of daily/hourly griping about TSLA stock price from people who say they’re holding for years to come. I mean, I get it, but lord it’s a bit tiresome to wade through.

I don’t expect a significant re-rating of Tesla stock until Q3/Q4 earnings blow outs. Until then, I’ll be accumulating and trying to profit from the predictable daily swings.

 

[MC3OZ]

I find it meaningful that a van is on Elon's mind at this point of Cybertruck pre-production. I think it indicates the development of the production processes required to make a vehicle as unique as the Cybertruck and its exoskeleton is going well. I've mentioned this observation here before, but it didn't get the attention it deserved.

If you think Elon is envisioning a van stamped out of heavy, soft and rust-prone mild steel, like all other vans on the road, you haven't been paying attention to what's going on with the Cybertruck (CT) prototypes we have seen multiple examples of as it goes through its development process. The first two prototypes we saw had cold-rolled stainless-steel panels that were clearly bent on a traditional metal bending brake. I believe it was Elon who even commented on the need to score the metal along each bend before it was bent.

However, in the last several months every new prototype we have seen has had a distinct waviness to the body panels that can be clearly seen when the reflection in the panel is viewed at an oblique angle. Maybe someone who knows more about cold-rolled stainless steel than I do can comment but I know enough about the properties of cold-rolled stainless steel to know that it is not naturally wavy and bending it upon straight lines is not going to make it take on a wavy appearance, even if done imperfectly. And the initial prototypes, while they did have misaligned body panels, there was not a hint of waviness visible in their reflective surfaces. This is a super important clue that the production process has changed in a fundamental manner, a production process that I have not seen a single other person contemplate and one that has far-reaching implications for the economics of Cybertruck production and every Tesla utility vehicle hereafter. Maybe even every new model that Tesla releases from here on out.

I think the waviness of recent CT protypes tells us something big has changed in the way these prototypes have been manufactured. I suspect Tesla is buying cheaper rolls of soft, hot-rolled stainless steel and cold working them in-house into hardened CT panels. This would mean they are no longer using a metal brake but bending panels from soft metal on a long line of custom hydraulic rollers as they are also hardening the panels under high roller pressure. This would require development of many hardened rollers of varying angles, so the soft metal panels are progressively bent and hardened they travel down a long line of rollers. Most of the bending would happen quickly at the beginning of the line and most of the hardening and final bending to tight tolerances would happen after that. Ultra-hard, high precision panels would be ejected at high speed at the end of the line, ready for welding into the form of Cybertruck. Unlike an industrial metal brake this would be a continuous process.

Advantages:

-Panel details and cutouts could be performed on soft metal making it much cheaper and quicker to cut. If the metal came from the factory in full-hard form, every shaping and cutting operation is more difficult and requires more expensive, generally slower tools, non-laser/plasma tools wear quickly.

-The grain structure of the hardened metal can be controlled somewhat to optimize strength in the desired areas, in the desired directions. This would be done by adjusting the progression of the rollers to suit desired directional strength.

-The panel thickness can be controlled locally. Welding flanges can be left thicker and the panels can be rolled thinner as required to reduce weight and increase efficiency of material utilization, thereby reducing cost.

-Cost of material is reduced by buying the stainless steel closer to raw form, in its soft state and cost of manufacture is reduced by greatly simplifying production (once such a line is developed and running).

Disadvantages:

-Huge development costs and risk of delays. What I'm suggesting is not easy and has never been done before, AFAIK. It's essentially bringing the cold-rolling hardening process of a metal foundry in-house and integrating it with a roller bending/forming operation. While the potential benefits are mind-blowing, the sheer amount of trial and error needed to get this right shouldn't be under-estimated and I'm not sure it could even be done in a two-year period. So that would seem to argue against this analysis.

-Appearance. If Tesla cannot tune the waviness out of the reflection, it is not as appealing to the eye.

The only other thing I think could cause the waviness is if Tesla adopted a different welding technique that is warping the panels. But I'm not sure why the early prototypes did not have this appearance. Elon's recent comment about a people/cargo van makes me think something about the Cybertruck production/economic projections have been going exceptionally well and he wants to make more vehicles using CT technology!

I'm just dying to learn more about the unique challenges CT presents and the kinds of solutions being applied. It's driving me nuts actually. I don't envy anyone doing financial projections on Tesla because there is still so much unknown. We live in exciting times!

There is one other piece of circumstantial evidence, the size, shape and configuration of one part of the building.

The long thin part at the south end between stamping and GA which was one of the last parts enclosed.

It has heavy duty footings, at the time some commented it looked similar to another building used for cold-rolling.

My brief research at the time seemed to indicate it was the right shape, and probably the right size.

Also none of the other explanations for that part of the building seemed to stack up.

From memory a mix of oil + water is used to cool the metal, and IMO the underground water vaults in that area seem ideal for capturing and recycling/shipping that material.

In terms of the advantages:-

• Regular rolls of starless steel are probably cheaper, easier to transport store and handle.
• A mix of different amount of cold rolling, or no cold roll at all is possible. depending on the purpose of the individual section.
• Some cutting and bending before cold rolling might be desirable,

I haven't really paid attention the the waviness, but the front section seems rounder, that could be simply a stamped section of regular stainless steel designed to be a crumple zone.

I'm not sure why people think cold-rolling is difficult, seems like there are many suppliers of the equipment, the main variables are the number of times it is rolled, the forces in each roll, and the water + oil mix.

My recollection is that the water + oil mix is a critical component, there are companies that seem to specialise in that area,

 

[Discoducky]

Man, this is too easy, after I click on the Musk Twitter article, towards the bottom after the content, I see this below.

The 'do the opposite of what Cramer says' mantra is exactly what I think.

 

[AudubonB]

I did a triple-check take on the "Bitcoin rebounds to $30,000" line you included. Exactly what month were those headlines posted? As I type this, I'm seeing BTC at...hold on...$21,591.22


Edit: Clear...er now. That specific headline was from May 13. CNBC on top of things!

 

[Xepa777]

Interesting insight from reddit

“
Indonesia has been changing its export from "Raw" material into "Refined" product. That's why indonesia has been investing into building refinery and other infrastructure so they can export Refined gas/oil instead of Raw Oil/gas so they can charge higher.

And indonesia are now banning the export of Raw material such as Nickel, steel, Raw Oil, etc so in the future most of its raw material are processed inside the country so indonesia in the future doesnt need to export cheap raw material and then buyback after it got refined overseas.

for nickel, Indonesia has been proactively wooing investor into building a lithium battery in indonesia since indonesia now has banned Raw Nickel so countries like China, South korea has been invest on building a battery factory jointly with indonesian SOE.

Hyundai has released their first EV car Ioniq 5 in indonesia which build within the country with 90% of its material came from indonesia, Ioniq 5 sells quite alot in it intial debut with most of its order are still in the waiting list proving that EV market are present in indonesia. And indonesia has been trying to woo Tesla into investing to build a battery factory too with maybe if its goes smooth a future tesla gigafactory.”

 

[OrthoSurg]

Lucky you! On paper I'm currently down 70%. It doesn't help that some options spreads I sold are down 8 figures....
But all will be ok as soon as we get back to 1200!
After that, I will only buy and hold. I promise!

Down 66% here. But I pumped a lot of money into my account so I cheated. Probably down 70% too. All will be ok once we are back up to $1300, which is a problem because it was never there yet. I wonder when we will reach ATH again after seeing all this market debacle with Rivian, Nio, XPeng, NKLA stocks down the drain. Can’t wait to see TSLA being green n big move day while all these crap stock are red. WS need to dissociate TSLA from these crap stocks.

 

[ggies07]

Interesting insight from reddit

“
Indonesia has been changing its export from "Raw" material into "Refined" product. That's why indonesia has been investing into building refinery and other infrastructure so they can export Refined gas/oil instead of Raw Oil/gas so they can charge higher.

And indonesia are now banning the export of Raw material such as Nickel, steel, Raw Oil, etc so in the future most of its raw material are processed inside the country so indonesia in the future doesnt need to export cheap raw material and then buyback after it got refined overseas.

for nickel, Indonesia has been proactively wooing investor into building a lithium battery in indonesia since indonesia now has banned Raw Nickel so countries like China, South korea has been invest on building a battery factory jointly with indonesian SOE.

Hyundai has released their first EV car Ioniq 5 in indonesia which build within the country with 90% of its material came from indonesia, Ioniq 5 sells quite alot in it intial debut with most of its order are still in the waiting list proving that EV market are present in indonesia. And indonesia has been trying to woo Tesla into investing to build a battery factory too with maybe if its goes smooth a future tesla gigafactory.”

Interesting...thank you. So basically what the US should be doing, but won't, because we are greedy and stuck in the past. Until one day all those greedy old people are dead and our generation and after will be dealing with the fact that this country is slave once again to the energy situation.

OH wait! We have a trick up our sleeve - Tesla will get into mining one day and be savoir for this country.

I'm 38 and feel like I'm stuck in between two worlds for the rest of my life - the oil world and the renewable one. For my generation, this is our legacy - to buy and push these products forward so that our children and grandchildren will be living in a cleaner world.

As our flame dims, it will burn out the brightest.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bitcoin crossing $22k and oil seems capped with the potential to drop moving forward. Both bullish for TSLA and macros IMO.

If we can macro rise to $850, then the Putin situation stabilizes, then the half dozen positive Tesla events hit......

I'm liking our setup. Nobody screw it up or invade any more countries!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Bitcoin crossing $22k and oil seems capped with the potential to drop moving forward. Both bullish for TSLA and macros IMO.

If we can macro rise to $850, then the Putin situation stabilizes, then the half dozen positive Tesla events hit......

I'm liking our setup. Nobody screw it up or invade any more countries!

Dan Ives claims Twitter deal is a $100/share overhang for TSLA. So if the deal falls through, that could put us in $800s, then those other things you mention could be a push into $900s

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Dan Ives claims Twitter deal is a $100/share overhang for TSLA. So if the deal falls through, that could put us in $800s, then those other things you mention could be a push into $900s

Meh. Shenanigans are infinitely more possible when Elon dumps millions of shares into the float. Hence MM's we're able to do anything they liked with us til now.

It's my understanding that's unlikely to happen again any time soon. SP should return to a rational place now that earnings are rapidly evolving. I dont thing any TWTR overhang will get in the way of that.

I want a split date!