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House vote is expected Friday, per this Pelosi statement, but I'd expect there to be changes prior to a vote.


"The president urged the House to pass the bill as soon as possible. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said her chamber would "move swiftly to send this bill to the president's desk." House votes are expected Friday."
I doubt there will be any changes. Any changes means it gets sent right back to the Senate. Democrats will avoid that at all costs.
 
A question, has there been any communication from Elon/Tesla about a possible $25,000 Tesla model?

I think this issue came up after battery day only because there was a model in the presentation with a cloth draped over it, so the cheaper model became speculation. I do remember Elon saying a few years ago that there would not be a cheaper model to the Model 3 as autonomy would mean the Model 3 would pay for itself. He could have just said that to prevent the Osborne effect

Strategically, it would make sense if Tesla used a smaller model as a robotaxi only, and operate the fleet themselves (or with fleet partners). I dont want Tesla selling small robotaxis to people at $25k-$40k unless they are going to take 30% of the robotaxi receipts a la Apple store
There is zero point in a low priced car for the next few years. It would add cost but not sell a single additional car. Elon has said that the lower priced car is postponed with no date when it might be.
 
Isn’t it wonderful that government can write such a comprehensive bill in clear, easy to understand language? What would be the point of writing a convoluted one, where people would have to discuss for days on end what it all meant and then afterwards walk away scratching their heads?

People continue to suck in every way imaginable. I noted Elon said Earth would be okay. He didn’t say people were going to be okay.

Next up, a 23 page instruction guide on how to boil wieners.
The issue is that lawyers can be politicians. This wasn't the case originally, because lawyers as officers of the court shouldn't be making laws due to conflict of interest, but in the 1850s the law was changed.
 
I doubt there will be any changes. Any changes means it gets sent right back to the Senate. Democrats will avoid that at all costs.
I hope so, it would be great to get this done with so we can move on to talking about CPCA and Q3 blowout numbers ;)
 
And here come all the oil & gas CEOs celebrating "clean fuels" like hydrogen. We are gonna waste HUNDREDS of BILLIONS on these clowns.

Hilarious to see all this LNG govt spending too. You'd think guys who own NBA teams could afford to finance their own LNG infrastructure.
Are we really? Don't they have to introduce and sell these systems in volume in order to take that kind of money?
 
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Pierre Ferragu on Twitter: “Aren’t lawmakers hopeless? What is the point of making a $7,500 credit for EVs, whereas EV supply will be below demand for years, if not a decade? I appreciate the +ve for $TSLA - will help margins, but it isn’t it a waste of taxpayer money? Maybe I am missing something?”
Hey governments, STOP. FUNDING. OIL & GAS.

(argh!!!!!!)

(This goes for Canada as well as USA, BTW)
 
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What's In the Inflation Reduction Act?​

JUL 28, 2022
Committee for Responsible Federal Budgets

TAXES
Update (8/3/2022): This analysis has been significantly updated to reflect a newly released score of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 from the Congressional Budget Office.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released its score of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, legislation which would use Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 reconciliation instructions to raise revenue; lower prescription drug costs; fund new energy, climate, and health care provisions; and reduce budget deficits.
Based on the CBO score, the legislation would reduce deficits by $305 billion through 2031 – including over $100 billion of net scoreable savings and another $200 billion of gross revenue from stronger tax compliance.
Because the prescription drug savings would be larger than new spending, CBO finds the legislation would modestly reduce net spending by almost $15 billion through 2031, including by nearly $40 billion in 2031.
Once fully phased in, the plan would also slightly cut net taxes by about $2 billion per year – with expanded energy and climate tax credits roughly matching the size of new tax increases. The legislation would generate nearly $300 billion of net revenue over a decade, mostly from improved tax compliance and the spillover effects of higher wages as a result of lower health premiums -- neither of which are tax increases -- along with early revenue collection as corporations shift the timing of certain payments.
Overall, CBO estimates the legislation includes $790 billion of offsets to fund roughly $485 billion of new spending and tax breaks (as negotiators account for the policies, it includes $739 billion of offsets and $433 billion of investments). Unlike prior versions of this reconciliation bill, such as the House-passed Build Back Better Act, this legislation would reduce deficits. Along with other elements of the bill, it is likely to reduce inflationary pressures and thus reduce the risk of a possible recession.

Inflation Reduction Act Summary​

PolicyCost (-)/Savings (2022-2031)
Energy and Climate-$386 billion
Clean Electricity Tax Credits-$161 billion
Air Pollution, Hazardous Materials, Transportation and Infrastructure-$40 billion
Individual Clean Energy Incentives-$37 billion
Clean Manufacturing Tax Credits-$37 billion
Clean Fuel and Vehicle Tax Credits-$36 billion
Conservation, Rural Development, Forestry-$35 billion
Building Efficiency, Electrification, Transmission, Industrial, DOE Grants and Loans-$27 billion
Other Energy and Climate Spending-$14 billion
Health Care-$98 billion
Extension of Expanded ACA Subsidies (three years)-$64 billion
Part D Re-Design, LIS Subsidies, Vaccine Coverage-$34 billion
Total, Spending and Tax Breaks-$485 billion
Health Savings$322 billion
Repeal Trump-Era Drug Rebate Rule$122 billion
Drug Price Inflation Cap$101 billion
Negotiation of Certain Drug Prices$99 billion
Revenue$468 billion
15 Percent Corporate Minimum Tax$313 billion
IRS Tax Enforcement Funding*$124 billion
Closure of Carried Interest Loophole$13 billion
Methane Fee, Superfund Fee, Other Revenue$18 billion
Total, Savings and Revenue$790 billion
Net Deficit Reduction$305 billion
Memo: Deficit reduction with permanent ACA subsidy extension~$155 billion
*IRS funding provision involves an $80 billion expenditure over ten years, which CBO estimates will yield $204 billion in additional revenue for a net savings of $124 billion.
Figures are rounded, based on available information as of 8/3/2022, and subject to change. Figures may not sum due to rounding
The package includes $386 billion of climate and energy spending and tax breaks – mainly for new or expanded tax credits to promote clean energy generation, electrification, green technology retrofits for homes and buildings, greater use of clean fuels, environmental conservation, and wider adoption of electric vehicles, among other purposes. The package would also increase health care spending by nearly $100 billion, mainly by extending the American Rescue Plan's temporarily-expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits for an additional three years, through 2025. Accompanying this new spending would be various regulatory and permitting reforms to help reduce energy costs outside of the reconciliation package.
The $485 billion of new costs would be offset with $790 billion of additional revenue and savings over a decade. This includes roughly $313 billion from imposing a 15 percent minimum tax on corporate book income; $322 billion for various reforms to reduce prescription drug costs; $124 billion ($204 billion gross) from reducing the tax gap through stronger Internal Revenue Service (IRS) enforcement; $13 billion from closing the carried interest loophole; and $18 billion from fees on methane emissions, Superfund cleanup sites, and a permanent extension of the higher tax rate for the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund.
The legislation would reduce deficits by over $20 billion in the first year, and – with interest – over $85 billion in 2031. We recently estimated it would reduce debt by nearly $2 trillion over two decades. Assuming the permanent unpaid-for extension of ACA subsidies (which we would strongly oppose), the plan would likely save almost $50 billion per year by 2031.
CBO%20Score%20of%20Inflation%20Reduction%20Act%20Chart.jpg.webp

Although reconciliation was designed for deficit reduction, this would be the first time in many years it was actually used for this purpose. It would also be the largest deficit reduction bill since the Budget Control Act of 2011. With inflation at a 40-year high and debt approaching record levels, this would be a welcomed improvement from the status quo.
 

What's In the Inflation Reduction Act?​

JUL 28, 2022
Committee for Responsible Federal Budgets

TAXES
Update (8/3/2022): This analysis has been significantly updated to reflect a newly released score of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 from the Congressional Budget Office.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released its score of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, legislation which would use Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 reconciliation instructions to raise revenue; lower prescription drug costs; fund new energy, climate, and health care provisions; and reduce budget deficits.
Based on the CBO score, the legislation would reduce deficits by $305 billion through 2031 – including over $100 billion of net scoreable savings and another $200 billion of gross revenue from stronger tax compliance.
Because the prescription drug savings would be larger than new spending, CBO finds the legislation would modestly reduce net spending by almost $15 billion through 2031, including by nearly $40 billion in 2031.
Once fully phased in, the plan would also slightly cut net taxes by about $2 billion per year – with expanded energy and climate tax credits roughly matching the size of new tax increases. The legislation would generate nearly $300 billion of net revenue over a decade, mostly from improved tax compliance and the spillover effects of higher wages as a result of lower health premiums -- neither of which are tax increases -- along with early revenue collection as corporations shift the timing of certain payments.
Overall, CBO estimates the legislation includes $790 billion of offsets to fund roughly $485 billion of new spending and tax breaks (as negotiators account for the policies, it includes $739 billion of offsets and $433 billion of investments). Unlike prior versions of this reconciliation bill, such as the House-passed Build Back Better Act, this legislation would reduce deficits. Along with other elements of the bill, it is likely to reduce inflationary pressures and thus reduce the risk of a possible recession.

Inflation Reduction Act Summary​

PolicyCost (-)/Savings (2022-2031)
Energy and Climate-$386 billion
Clean Electricity Tax Credits-$161 billion
Air Pollution, Hazardous Materials, Transportation and Infrastructure-$40 billion
Individual Clean Energy Incentives-$37 billion
Clean Manufacturing Tax Credits-$37 billion
Clean Fuel and Vehicle Tax Credits-$36 billion
Conservation, Rural Development, Forestry-$35 billion
Building Efficiency, Electrification, Transmission, Industrial, DOE Grants and Loans-$27 billion
Other Energy and Climate Spending-$14 billion
Health Care-$98 billion
Extension of Expanded ACA Subsidies (three years)-$64 billion
Part D Re-Design, LIS Subsidies, Vaccine Coverage-$34 billion
Total, Spending and Tax Breaks-$485 billion
Health Savings$322 billion
Repeal Trump-Era Drug Rebate Rule$122 billion
Drug Price Inflation Cap$101 billion
Negotiation of Certain Drug Prices$99 billion
Revenue$468 billion
15 Percent Corporate Minimum Tax$313 billion
IRS Tax Enforcement Funding*$124 billion
Closure of Carried Interest Loophole$13 billion
Methane Fee, Superfund Fee, Other Revenue$18 billion
Total, Savings and Revenue$790 billion
Net Deficit Reduction$305 billion
Memo: Deficit reduction with permanent ACA subsidy extension~$155 billion

*IRS funding provision involves an $80 billion expenditure over ten years, which CBO estimates will yield $204 billion in additional revenue for a net savings of $124 billion.
Figures are rounded, based on available information as of 8/3/2022, and subject to change. Figures may not sum due to rounding
The package includes $386 billion of climate and energy spending and tax breaks – mainly for new or expanded tax credits to promote clean energy generation, electrification, green technology retrofits for homes and buildings, greater use of clean fuels, environmental conservation, and wider adoption of electric vehicles, among other purposes. The package would also increase health care spending by nearly $100 billion, mainly by extending the American Rescue Plan's temporarily-expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits for an additional three years, through 2025. Accompanying this new spending would be various regulatory and permitting reforms to help reduce energy costs outside of the reconciliation package.
The $485 billion of new costs would be offset with $790 billion of additional revenue and savings over a decade. This includes roughly $313 billion from imposing a 15 percent minimum tax on corporate book income; $322 billion for various reforms to reduce prescription drug costs; $124 billion ($204 billion gross) from reducing the tax gap through stronger Internal Revenue Service (IRS) enforcement; $13 billion from closing the carried interest loophole; and $18 billion from fees on methane emissions, Superfund cleanup sites, and a permanent extension of the higher tax rate for the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund.
The legislation would reduce deficits by over $20 billion in the first year, and – with interest – over $85 billion in 2031. We recently estimated it would reduce debt by nearly $2 trillion over two decades. Assuming the permanent unpaid-for extension of ACA subsidies (which we would strongly oppose), the plan would likely save almost $50 billion per year by 2031.
CBO%20Score%20of%20Inflation%20Reduction%20Act%20Chart.jpg.webp

Although reconciliation was designed for deficit reduction, this would be the first time in many years it was actually used for this purpose. It would also be the largest deficit reduction bill since the Budget Control Act of 2011. With inflation at a 40-year high and debt approaching record levels, this would be a welcomed improvement from the status quo.
The problem is that is all out of date. The closure of the carried interest loophole has been removed since that analysis was done, so at a minimum it is off by $13B which would make it no longer a deficit reduction.
 
...I wouldn't blame the senators who voted for it. How many of them know the details of this and how it will play out? Even the EV fanatics on this board aren't sure. If we could find out who came up with the text of the bill we could then make inferences about their motivation.
Isn't it their job to know what they're voting for? Do you think they actually even read the bill...not to mention understand the subtleties? Do they have to pass it to learn what's in it? You shouldn't lower your expectations to the level of incompetence that is so common...that's how things keep getting worse vs better wrt our representation!
 
The problem is that is all out of date. The closure of the carried interest loophole has been removed since that analysis was done, so at a minimum it is off by $13B which would make it no longer a deficit reduction.
Sinema insisted on keeping the carried interest loophole. But in its place she put a 1% tax on stock buybacks. This brings in a lot more revenue than closing the carried interest loophole. So Sinema's changes actually helped the deficit.