My mother is not home bound, but she has big problems driving at night. She can afford it.
Not everyone who cannot drive is broke. Also, even if she can’t afford it, I can send it to pick her up.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Not everyone who cannot drive is broke. Also, even if she can’t afford it, I can send it to pick her up.
When huge numbers of lives have been saved and Teslas are the cheapest cars to insure. Yes, I realize nobody knows when an accident DOESN'T happen, but the statistics will eventually tell the story... I guess they'll speak through the insurance rates.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
When there is 100+ million Teslas doing robotaxi each car would get so few drives per day they would make you very little.“Most Tesla owners” now, from the 1st 3million cars ever made. Correct? Do you think this will stay like this, when there will be 100mill and beyond Teslas on the road? I doubt it and I believe Elon is right. Late, but right.
While it will very likely take other manufacturers several years (or even decades as some seems to believe) to bring a competitive system to market private Tesla robotaxis will still have competition. Namely Tesla itself. Many seems willing to pay almost any price for FSD since they think there is incredible profits guaranteed. What they seem to forget is that Tesla itself will be your competition and they will be able to put enough new robotaxis into service that the time span a private owner will get drives for his car around the clock will be short.
There is no such thing as no competition if what you are competing for is valuable.
If you had a car that was Level 4+ and only
operated autonomously, maybe lacking steering wheel and pedals, I don’t think you would even need road-use insurance. For that level of autonomy and to attribute saved lives to the system, the manufacturer needs to own the driving task and what happens while it’s in use. But of course you’d be able to get metrics out of the manufacturer.
I’m not even sure how you go about insuring something that can be driven manually but also flipped into a Level 4+ mode where you don’t own the driving task
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
@Curt Renz i found interesting “not a chip shortage“ chip redesign ~ another short sighted exposure to the flank of ICE manufacturers. Not innovative enough or at all.
Good to know you are still up and about. Thanks
lafrisbee
Active Member
Your point is valid...until they remove the steering wheel.
lafrisbee
Active Member
I have no knowledge of the industry or Tesla's idea, but Level 4+ will create a "unique" opportunity for Tesla Insurance, since they will most likely be on the hook for the car's behavior while on level4+.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Creeping in to my mind is a bad feeling concerning FSD.
I think too many idiots will live longer lives. This is not good.
I think too many idiots will live longer lives. This is not good.
June 29, 2010
Tesla's initial public offering (IPO) was on June 29, 2010 and was priced at $17 per share. The company has never paid a dividend but its share price has gone up multifold since then.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Yes. I doThe ones that didn’t must feel pretty bad right now then. I did, and definitely getting it.
Yup, sure wish I got in on the IPO. ~230x returns to date! Still, my 15x return over four years is pretty respectable. I bet the folks who got in pre IPO have really made a killing. Those lucky enough to hold SpaceX shares should likewise make out VERY well.
Define “huge”, please. I have read statements like that, pertaining to a wide variety of circumstances, since I was head referee for Sodom vs Gomorrah.
But I never have seen anyone post verifiable numbers demonstrating same.
I’m not disagreeing with you - I genuinely would like to see the data.
Exactly correct, and here is a corollary:
It will be exceedingly hard in any number of metropolitan areas for that FSD car to park itself in a freee spot - for exactly the same reasons.
Similarly, that is why I posted here in 2013 that those enjoying the EV benefit of access to HOV lanes had best enjoy it now, as guess what happens when (25% / 40% / 75% etc) of all cars are EVs?
Hint: harken to Gilbert & Sullivan, in The Gondoliers:
In short, whoever you may be,
To this conclusion you'll agree,
When every one is somebodee,
Then no one's anybody!
BitJam
Active Member
This is what I did last summer when FSD was $10K. So far the price of FSD is keeping pace with TSLA.
People say the price rise in FSD is a bullish signal. I see it the other way around. Elon has historically been very over-optimistic about FSD development speed and this may be reflected in the price. OTOH, when FSD approaches L4 or L5 then TSLA should skyrocket. In other words, the price of FSD may not be a good indication to buy TSLA but the price of TSLA could be a good indication that FSD is ready or nearly so. Although there are other reasons for TSLA to skyrocket.
It's not smart to bet against Elon but I think we may need HW4 or HW5 before FSD can reach L4 or L5. This is partly based on the old software maxim that the last 10% of a job takes 90% of the effort. Not crashing is (or would be) great but there is a whole lot more needed even for L4. I think we will see a lot of really great L2 and L3, perhaps for years, before we reach L4.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Might be a huge percentage for the police department alone or for some small municipality in whole, but it isn't a huge percentage for large municipalities as a whole.
from Fines and Forfeitures
Throughout the weekend, I've been pondering TSLA's price movements on Friday. It's not as straightforward as most days.
The big question I have is "what price did the market makers want TSLA to close at on Friday"? With max pain around 875 and strikes below 920 dominated by puts, there was a fairly wide range of "acceptable" closing prices that give the MMs lots of profits. With TSLA opening near 895, how much of a pushdown would be optimal for the market makers? TSLA was going to dip because the NASDAQ was on its way to closing down 2%. Market makers could easily tweak the trading so that we saw anywhere from a 2% to 4% dip of TSLA for the day and nobody would think anything out of the ordinary.
Considerations:
* A lot of the strikes were loaded with calls and puts being pretty close to each other. At 890, calls and puts were close to even, and so closing right on the number kept either party with 890 puts or calls from making any money. Notice how level TSLA remained in after hours trading until just right before the 6pm close. Market makers were definitely herding TSLA after hours.
* Would market makers have benefitted more if TSLA closed near the 880ish low? That number was certainly closer to the advertised 875 max pain, and if the MMs had been looking to cover naked shorts on Friday, perhaps this was an attractive option. They certainly could have capped the stock and kept it near 880 through close because the NASDAQ traded all afternoon in a level to somewhat down trajectory. Easy-peasy. Instead, in the low volume afternoon hours we saw TSLA stock rise when no other growth stock was rising.
One possibility
We both noticed that over a million shares trading hands in the closing cross on Friday. What I'm thinking is that the market makers and hedge funds may have given TSLA an extra nudge to get it down about 3% in late morning, but I then think they may have just let the market take it from there so that the stock closed at a price appropriate for the market's appetite, given the morning pushdown. As it turns out, the market wanted to bid the price of TSLA up a bit in the afternoon (particularly if MMs and hedgies were already covering some of their day shorting from the morning dip). That higher price was needed to encourage more sellers in the closing cross, because MMs and hedgies were buying to cover naked shorts (big time!) and you needed LOTS of sellers in the closing cross. Thus, maybe the morning dip was the setup for a lower closing price, the afternoon rise was some day-short covering as well as the market pricing TSLA appropriately, given the morning pushdown, and the closing cross was used by MMs and hedgies to buy lots of shares to close their naked short positions. In other words, much of the day was a setup for a high-volume closing cross at an attractive price. Another variation would be to say the morning pushdown was a setup for covering in the afternoon and during the closing cross. A rising price as the afternoon progressed and a million shares traded in the closing cross suggests there may be more covering yet to do.
Many TSLA investors are watching the situation in Shanghai unfold as the government restricts some companies from production, due to dwindling electric supply. The Shanghai area gets most of its electricity from hydro, so water (and therefore rain) is the needed ingredient to fix the situation. How soon can we expect enough rain to restore sufficient electrical output to some of Tesla's suppliers in the area?
It's important to know that Shanghai gets the majority of its rain during the monsoon/typhoon season of June through September. Clearly the rains have been late this year, which explains the low reservoirs. Here's an image of the Shanghai weather report for the next two weeks. I suggest that rain is on its way and if sufficient we'll see the crisis measured in weeks rather than months.
Since TSLA likely keeps a few weeks of inventory for each part, the electricity issue could well be resolved before production at Shanghai's factory is affected.
It's important to know that Shanghai gets the majority of its rain during the monsoon/typhoon season of June through September. Clearly the rains have been late this year, which explains the low reservoirs. Here's an image of the Shanghai weather report for the next two weeks. I suggest that rain is on its way and if sufficient we'll see the crisis measured in weeks rather than months.
Since TSLA likely keeps a few weeks of inventory for each part, the electricity issue could well be resolved before production at Shanghai's factory is affected.
Last edited:
I don't know how clear cut this reduction in robotaxi revenue is for 2 reasons - 1) the time lag to get 100m robotaxis on the road, and 2) the change in demand for a robotaxi like service.
Tesla is targeting 100m vehicles by 2030 and only a fraction of them will be devoted to the robotaxi fleet, so we're probably looking at maybe 2035 at the earliest before market saturation (assuming that is around 100m vehicles), that could leave up to a decade of decent revenues to recoup your $15k investment - presumably not difficult.
On the demand side there is already a basic estimation of replacing taxis/ubers quickly due to price competitiveness, however as other people have said, robotaxis are likely to replace many 2nd vehicle trips from families with multiple vehicles (again because price competitiveness makes the cost of owning a second vehicle uncompetitive). Even some short haul flights and train journeys would be replaced as it would be much nicer to sleep in the back of a MY overnight than wrestle through airport security, economy class seats and connections on the other end.
Then there's the potential change in societal living habits where a combination of being able to work while getting a robotaxi and WFH is likely to push more people further out of the city to take advantage of lower property prices and increased quality of life.this sort of move could again substantially increase the demand for robotaxi miles (the current uber/taxi rates make this sort of lifestyle uneconomic)
There's also the potential general increase in demand for people who would just travel more if they could do so cheaply and in comfort with a robotaxi - I'd expect many more weekends away into the country or to see friends and family in more distant locations when cheap convenient transport is available.
so long story short, the combination limited supply and increased demand from both substitution and market expansion makes it seem fairly straightforward that there's time to recoup the current costs of robotaxi and potentially far more before market saturation eats away returns.
Also @AudubonB, twice in two weeks?! Poetry Rule - Time of Death - 4:15am UTC 22/08/22
Keep in mind that FSD is the unofficial "get your Tesla order quicker" ticket.
Demand is just crazy, some people want to shortcut - you can see this on the used market, when you want a vehicle quick for some reason, it might be more tempting to pay 15Kusd for FSD and get a factory new vehicle quicker than pay 10k upcharge for a used one - of course if you need it day-quick like within a week used is still the only way to go. (I am in queue with 2 german model Ys and the german demand is crazy (subsidy shrinks EOY 22) and people on the TFF forum are discussing which options to order to get it quicker ...).
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
