Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Should I not be bullish on the near future value of TSLA shares? If not, why?

I’m incredibly bullish once we get Q3 earnings.

Until then though, TSLA is very vulnerable to weakness in its trading. Just got one more month to go. P/D should hold the stock stable in the upper 200’s/lower 300’s even if macros suck and then earnings will cause the spark

 

[SOULPEDL]

In the beginning of the war the European Commission publicly stated to eliminate two thirds of the dependence on Russian gas before winter. I always thought they were strategically sandbagging their targets. Keep importing as much gas as possible via pipelines from Russia in the hope to have enough reserves for the winter before Russia realises their energy weapon is gone. Once it’s gone, it’s really gone forever. No European politician will risk his career on promoting dependency on Russian gas again.

Any gas for that matter, any country. I think we all see this weapon clearly from now on.
Wishing I could send EU some warmth from Az.

 

[Mengy]

Should I not be bullish on the near future value of TSLA shares? If not, why?

I think it's safe to be bullish on the long term, but in my opinion the short term is questionable.

The MM's have shown extraordinary control over TSLA for the past half year, every time we get a pop it's driven back down soon after. They've controlled the stock to the point it has underperformed the market and particularly the segment, this is why our PE keeps compressing over time. There just isn't enough persistent volume to overwhelm the MM's, they are in control.

I don't see anything in the short term which will change that. Yes Q3 and Q4 will be record quarters, but that is expected, no one will be surprised by either of them, at least not to the point of spiking volume to incredible levels. We need a surprise catalyst to overwhelm the MM's, something like a Moody's upgrade, or another deal like Hertz, or Buffett investing into TSLA, something unforeseen which brings huge amounts of new investors into TSLA.

Until then I feel we will keep trending mostly flat, with the PE continuing to compress slowly over time, coiling that spring in the short term until some big surprise unleashes the spring down the road.

I still think we'll close the year under the ATH, under $415 post split. I know it's an unpopular opinion, but in this market I think it's highly likely.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The entire article contained zero mentions of Tesla. What a joke.

You sound surprised

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think it's safe to be bullish on the long term, but in my opinion the short term is questionable.

The MM's have shown extraordinary control over TSLA for the past half year, every time we get a pop it's driven back down soon after. They've controlled the stock to the point it has underperformed the market and particularly the segment, this is why our PE keeps compressing over time. There just isn't enough persistent volume to overwhelm the MM's, they are in control.

I don't see anything in the short term which will change that. Yes Q3 and Q4 will be record quarters, but that is expected, no one will be surprised by either of them, at least not to the point of spiking volume to incredible levels. We need a surprise catalyst to overwhelm the MM's, something like a Moody's upgrade, or another deal like Hertz, or Buffett investing into TSLA, something unforeseen which brings huge amounts of new investors into TSLA.

Until then I feel we will keep trending mostly flat, with the PE continuing to compress slowly over time, coiling that spring in the short term until some big surprise unleashes the spring down the road.

I still think we'll close the year under the ATH, under $415 post split. I know it's an unpopular opinion, but in this market I think it's highly likely.

Feel the same way....oh well....more time to accumulate more chairs. We all know it is just a matter of time before market conditions improve and wall st wakes up.....might take a while though.

 

[ZachF]

If EU survives winter, final Russian chip they think they have falls.

They will survive. It’ll hurt and they’ll take a big economic hit (2-5% GDP, 10-20% of manufacturing output) but they’ll weather it much better than Russia will, which is headed towards becoming Pyongyang on the Volga.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Already from the begin of the war, EU made agreements with the US to ship as much LNG as possible to Europe. Germany is building 2 LNG terminals at breakneck speed (now called ‘Tesla-speed’ in Germany), to be operational before the heating season starts.
This morning the news was that gas prices fell significantly on the news that Germany is a month ahead of plan in filling it’s gas storage: Gasprijs flink omlaag nu landen haast maken met vullen reserves
Basically it’s looking more and more likely Europe will largely succeed in preventing a gas shortage this winter.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Until then though, TSLA is very vulnerable to weakness in its trading. Just got one more month to go. P/D should hold the stock stable in the upper 200’s/lower 300’s even if macros suck and then earnings will cause the spark

I thought we looked at the premarket and we were gonna "drop like a rock this week"?

Looks to me like the normal modest upward momentum easily capped to protect the massive $900c wall Friday.

Quite a robust 2 day(so far) result if you ask me. Considering macros.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I still think we'll close the year under the ATH, under $415 post split. I know it's an unpopular opinion, but in this market I think it's highly likely.

Nawh, this is just Kabuki theatre. MMs + hedgies are setting up for a November rally. They pulled the same trick with the Summer rally. Indeed, they only know the one trick.

Recall this is an Election year in the U.S.) They are all doom'n'gloom until it's time to run. They want to leave Retail investors at the station holding their bags when the train pulls out.

Chairs!

 

[Mengy]

Nawh, this is just Kabuki theatre. MMs + hedgies are setting up for a November rally. They pulled the same trick with the Summer rally. Indeed, they only know the one trick.

Recall this is an Election year in the U.S.) They are all doom'n'gloom until it's time to run. They want to leave Retail investors at the station holding their bags when the train pulls out.

I do hope you are right and my hunch is wrong. I'd love to end the year with a new ATH, I'm just not anticipating it with how the market is going right now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I thought we looked at the premarket and we were gonna "drop like a rock this week"?

Looks to me like the normal modest upward momentum easily capped to protect the massive $900c wall Friday.

Quite a robust 2 day(so far) result if you ask me. Considering macros.

I don't know how you even remotely think the $300 Call Wall is the factor for this week.

TSLA will test 275. If TSLA drops to 275 and breaks through, it breaks the uptrend line that was established on June 16th. If that breaks, the next uptrend line test is 255. That's what's in play for this week for hedge funds. If macro's continue this down momentum, those numbers are definitely in play and what hedge funds are shooting for.

Nawh, this is just Kabuki theatre. MMs + hedgies are setting up for a November rally. They pulled the same trick with the Summer rally. Indeed, they only know the one trick.

Recall this is an Election year in the U.S.) They are all doom'n'gloom until it's time to run. They want to leave Retail investors at the station holding their bags when the train pulls out.

Chairs!

I tend to agree. Coincidently enough, I see the same exact breakout that happened last year, just a 15-20% higher starting point. Last year's breakout was at 750/share. I think this one starts at around 900/share.

I think we hit 450/share (1350/share pre split) before the momentum subsides. As I used to point out many times before, we're about to hit a growth spurt in Tesla's earnings that will force the issue. TSLA's TTM and Forward P/E's will drop too rapidly to keep the stock stuck at these levels

 

[SmokyPeat]

Seems like BYD is the only stock on my watchlist doing decently today. The J.Pow gloom didn't reach that far, apparently.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I do hope you are right and my hunch is wrong. I'd love to end the year with a new ATH, I'm just not anticipating it with how the market is going right now.

Haha, yeah, it's like they're LYING TO YOU... That's a whole part of the act, to get you to 'feel' a certain way. That's why, on average, dead investors outperform typical retail investors:

Why the dead outperform the living

<p>Do dead people really make the best investors? With inactivity and a lack of bias working in their favour, they just might. </p> . Find out more at Intelligent Investor.

www.intelligentinvestor.com.au

Worried? Play dead!

Chairs!

 

[jeewee3000]

I do hope you are right and my hunch is wrong. I'd love to end the year with a new ATH, I'm just not anticipating it with how the market is going right now.

The question of ATH from now till end of 2022 largely depends on macro's.

On the Tesla side there is plenty of good news ahead, mainly the "boring" expected stuff (by us) as record Q3 and Q4.

The wildcards, which I don't count on but it's nice to know they're there, are:
- AI day (very unlikely to positively affect the SP. Mostly we trade flat or down after investor days)
- FSD beta becomes on par with human crash statistics (very unlikely within this timeline))
- TSLA becomes investor grade causing some institutions to buy in (likely to occur within a few quarters, when is big unknown, as is the impact on the SP)
- Q3 and/or Q4 earnings show a wildcard besides auto, for example energy scales hugely and is very profitable;
- Tesla announces next factory/factories (very likely to happen, impact on SP hard to predict)
- Semi production labeled in Q3 or Q4 earnings update, with concrete ramping expectations, would be bullish;
- Twitter overhang dissapearing in a good way;
- the true wildcards: the unknown unknowns. (past examples: Hertz announcement (good), Elon selling (bad). I include random "Wall Street analyst wakes up and promotes the stock" in this section)

Just stellar Q3 and Q4 won't propel us to ATH IMO. Only if the macro's are optimistic regarding the short to mid term (inflation/recession worries).

That said, the above should keep us from tanking too much with the rest of the markets if the markets were to drop another 30% or so.

TL;DR: TSLA is a great place for my money in the coming months/years.

 

[Mengy]

Haha, yeah, it's like they're LYING TO YOU... That's a whole part of the act, to get you to 'feel' a certain way. That's why, on average, dead investors outperform typical retail investors:

Why the dead outperform the living

<p>Do dead people really make the best investors? With inactivity and a lack of bias working in their favour, they just might. </p> . Find out more at Intelligent Investor.

www.intelligentinvestor.com.au

Worried? Play dead!

Chairs!

True. None of it matters to me much as I'm not selling any shares from my main accounts for many years yet, but I might sell some TSLA from my "play" account to buy a Polaris EV Ranger the next time we crest a new ATH. That's the target I've set for myself. If we don't hit a new ATH by year's end I might just finance it instead, but I'd like to simply buy it outright and remain debt free...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Here in norther Europe we are quite optimistic. Next winter's gonna be tough, but there's light at the end of tunnel.

"Due to Olkiluoto 3 ( new nuclear reactor) and the new wind turbines, Finland's domestic electricity production is increasing so much that next year is expected to be Finland's first year of self-sufficiency since the 1960s."

Electricity market forecast: Price will triple by winter, but crash next spring

Olkiluoto 3 and new wind turbines are expected to bring Finland electricity self-sufficiency for the first time in decades.

yle.fi

All the Nordic countries together would need to do is have someone "accidentally" damage the electricity export lines to the continent and we would be swimming in almost free fossil free energy.

Unfortunately we are to meeky and always follow the 'rules'. Everybody knows if most other countries on the continent had this possibility to save themselves they would. Some conveniently timed necessary 'repairs' would magically be needed. Not us.

I'm thinking of doing some sabotage. A small explosion in the right place. Let them catch me. Get a few years in prison but becoming a national hero. Then set up a GoFundMe where 20 million people would happily donate $10 euro each as a thank you for saving them thousands this winter.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

True. None of it matters to me much as I'm not selling any shares from my main accounts for many years yet, but I might sell some TSLA from my "play" account to buy a Polaris EV Ranger the next time we crest a new ATH. That's the target I've set for myself. If we don't hit a new ATH by year's end I might just finance it instead, but I'd like to simply buy it outright and remain debt free...

I, too have a similar plan. When $TSLA hits a new ATH, i will sell just enough from the play account to pay off the mortgage and not have to worry about that ever again.

 

[LodiEVFan]

The question of ATH from now till end of 2022 largely depends on macro's.

On the Tesla side there is plenty of good news ahead, mainly the "boring" expected stuff (by us) as record Q3 and Q4.

The wildcards, which I don't count on but it's nice to know they're there, are:
- AI day (very unlikely to positively affect the SP. Mostly we trade flat or down after investor days)
- FSD beta becomes on par with human crash statistics (very unlikely within this timeline))
- TSLA becomes investor grade causing some institutions to buy in (likely to occur within a few quarters, when is big unknown, as is the impact on the SP)
- Q3 and/or Q4 earnings show a wildcard besides auto, for example energy scales hugely and is very profitable;
- Tesla announces next factory/factories (very likely to happen, impact on SP hard to predict)
- Semi production labeled in Q3 or Q4 earnings update, with concrete ramping expectations, would be bullish;
- Twitter overhang dissapearing in a good way;
- the true wildcards: the unknown unknowns. (past examples: Hertz announcement (good), Elon selling (bad). I include random "Wall Street analyst wakes up and promotes the stock" in this section)

Just stellar Q3 and Q4 won't propel us to ATH IMO. Only if the macro's are optimistic regarding the short to mid term (inflation/recession worries).

That said, the above should keep us from tanking too much with the rest of the markets if the markets were to drop another 30% or so.

TL;DR: TSLA is a great place for my money in the coming months/years.

For me the status of 4680 production is very important. Would love to see concrete evidence of progress - with a chart/numbers of the progress so far and additional projections - for Kato Road, GigaTexas and GigaBerlin.

 

[jeewee3000]

For me the status of 4680 production is very important. Would love to see concrete evidence of progress - with a chart/numbers of the progress so far and additional projections - for Kato Road, GigaTexas and GigaBerlin.

True, that slipped my mind. If Tesla gives hard numbers regarding 4680 ramp success that would derisk the coming years a lot (in the view of WallStreet analysts).

 

[AudubonB]

Should I not be bullish on the near future value of TSLA shares? If not, why?

Everyone here always should be bullish on the near future value of Tesla shares. And the far future value.

It’s just that….it’s just….

Well, you’re a special case.