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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I’m thinking it’s going to be something that demonstrates the Robot doing it’s on thinking and not just some programmed dance. It can be a basic task like go pour that beer into a glass. If it’s just something that’s obviously programmed then that will be a let down for sure.
I also find it interesting that Elon hasn’t been hyping the event that much at all. We barely know anything about what is going to happen. I think this is a good thing cause I’m thinking he wants to shock the world on how far they have come in one year since the announcement. He’s the project lead for this so you know he places it at high importance. I honestly can’t wait until the end of this week. The cherry on top is Q3 numbers which I’m thinking will be good. It’s almost as if Elon is lining all this good news up on purpose.
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It is good to keep expectations down. The hype meter goes to 11 on every one of these events.
I agree but I don’t think it unreasonable to expect something that is not obviously programmed. It is called AI day and we know there is going to be a demonstration. No point having the day if they don’t demonstrate a robot doing a simple task that shows it’s AI capabilities.
Considering the software is similar to FSD, they could ask Optimus to retrieve an object from a unspecified location in an obstacle course.
The Robot has to navigate though the course until it finds the object, then recognise and pick up the object, perhaps bring the object back to its starting location.
This doesn't need to be a live demo, a video of the Robot doing it is sufficient. For FSD the visual model of what the car sees is instructive, for the Robot a similar visual model would be instructive.,
Plenty people will be lining up to downplay and criticise anything Tesla shows.
I think many struggle with the idea of Tesla branching out beyond cars to energy, FSD, battery production and Optimus.
Those that haven't accepted or don't value Tesla Energy, are unlikely to value Optimus.
They think new layers are a distraction, but the reality is Tesla hasn't forgotten how to make cars, and still improving all aspects of the automotive business.
The claim that new things are a distraction doesn't really stack up when the core business is doing well.
MartinAustin
Active Member
What we should expect from AI Day 2022 is... Monday morning's media to claim the event was underwhelming. A bust. Not measuring up to the hype.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
I agree with everything you say.
With regards to the demo, optimistically it's got to be semi -unpredictable. Even if Elon or a project lead ask the audience "which of these 5 things should we ask the robot to do?" we'd all be like, "sure, it's still 5 pre -programmed actions."
Instead I think it will be something semi-prescribed. Imagine a stage with some items on it - a box, a table, a door, a hat - and Elon or the project lead asks someone from the audience to ask the robot to do something simple and easy on that stage. It would have to hear and understand the command (assuming someone offstage isn't remotely controlling it), and adapt to the known environment to carry out the action. Kinda like FSD on an unknown road.
For example:
- put the hat in the box, or
- put the hat on the table, or
- take the box out the door
That would be reasonable, practical (do a dance? really??
), and amazing!
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Put the cat in the hat (as asked by Krugerrand)I agree with everything you say.
With regards to the demo, optimistically it's got to be semi -unpredictable. Even if Elon or a project lead ask the audience "which of these 5 things should we ask the robot to do?" we'd all be like, "sure, it's still 5 pre -programmed actions."
Instead I think it will be something semi-prescribed. Imagine a stage with some items on it - a box, a table, a door, a hat - and Elon or the project lead asks someone from the audience to ask the robot to do something simple and easy on that stage. It would have to hear and understand the command (assuming someone offstage isn't remotely controlling it), and adapt to the known environment to carry out the action. Kinda like FSD on an unknown road.
For example:
- put the hat in the box, or
- put the hat on the table, or
- take the box out the door
That would be reasonable, practical (do a dance? really??
/s
Um sure, Just as long as they buy TSLA!
Ok, for real, what is going on in Beijing with Xi? Anyone? Bueller? Something "doo" economics?
Xepa777
Banned
Dude, these are wildly unrealistic expectations. It's expectations like this which result in disappointment after events like Battery Day and AI Day 1. Elon pushed this event a month just so they could even have ANY form of prototype whatsoever.
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
I wouldn't expect a complete body moving around. The hint has been the two detailed hands of the announcement. So maybe we'll see an upper body sitting at a desk doing something intelligent in reference to a production task.
It would be great if he/she/it interacts with a human. Nothing is more unpredictable.
It would be great if he/she/it interacts with a human. Nothing is more unpredictable.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Since the peak early this year / last year:
Aluminum down 45%
Steel down 35%
Copper down 35%
Nickel down 50%
I think those are the top materials Tesla uses by cost. Transport costs are also way down.
Aluminum down 45%
Steel down 35%
Copper down 35%
Nickel down 50%
I think those are the top materials Tesla uses by cost. Transport costs are also way down.
Mike Smith
Active Member
I do expect them to show it doing some sort of work in the factory. Its purpose is to do work, so if it can't do work it wouldn't be a prototype. I think this would be unexpected by Wall Street and received very positively.
Don't be silly now.. have you learned nothing from previous Tesla days? Here's how it's gone down up until now: Tesla shows off and tells us about a bunch of things that are extremely impressive and promising to mega-nerds and Tesla fanatics. I promise that whatever is shown on AI day will not be viewed very positively by Wall Street, unless Tesla changes their intent for these days completely. What will be shown will not be immediately and plainly profitable, and thus (in the eyes of WS) is worth nothing for the foreseeable future.
From their point of view they'd also be historically correct. Looking at battery day and AI day, how has the company profited from that since their associated days? If you can't look past a 12 month horizon, I'm sure AI day #2 will also be a display of far fetched and unlikely to become succesful (profitable) pet projects from Elon, and they wish he'd just get some more models out the factory door. They didn't find battery day worthwhile either, even considering all of the nigh impossible achievements accomplished by tesla up to that point. No matter if Tesla sets a realistic timeframe and actually meets it, it just doesnt register until the money comes pouring in.
To anyone expecting Optimus doing anything so useful that a typical factory worker might feel threatened - forget about it. You wont see Optimus installing a typical wire harness, but moving boxes is a given I'd say.
My own expectations:
- Dojo is growing, teasers about V2
- Detailed info and projected release for HW4, expect that HW3 will remain capable of FSD for the foreseeable future.
- Lots of impossible to understand (by me) but cool to watch and promising FSD stuff.
- Optimus time. Prototype shows up and does some things that wow people who know stuff about robots, but don't really impress anyone else. Possibly the other way around
- Next trading day, TSLA moves with the markets and ignores AI day completely, even after the info has been digested and everyone here understands what an enormously big deal it is.
Anything better than the above would surprise the hell out of me, and I would gladly accept such a thing, but I'm sure as hell not counting on it.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Forward Observing
AI day 2.0
How about the new AI goes through the steps necessary to enter a coal mine, without a lunch pail or canary, and work twenty hours a day; before being recharged. Probably cost a few bucks to rinse off the coal dust.
It took eight hundred thousand years for humans to get to today. Johnny come lately coal miner will all of a sudden develop diarrhe. Non-stop diarrhe.
Careful what you ask for. I’ve lived through what automation does when eliminating jobs (military) ~ it goes beyond outsourcing.
Cheers
Note ~ recently heard about the current GI Bill (College). GI can not only allow spouse to use it, GI can parcel it out with some to the kids and spouse. In true MajorBS49 fashion; I said, my wife got her education paid for by the GI Bill too ~ I was the GI and it was my dollar bill. Okay, you might have wanted to have been there and under the influence of at least one dragons milk beer.
AI day 2.0
How about the new AI goes through the steps necessary to enter a coal mine, without a lunch pail or canary, and work twenty hours a day; before being recharged. Probably cost a few bucks to rinse off the coal dust.
It took eight hundred thousand years for humans to get to today. Johnny come lately coal miner will all of a sudden develop diarrhe. Non-stop diarrhe.
Careful what you ask for. I’ve lived through what automation does when eliminating jobs (military) ~ it goes beyond outsourcing.
Cheers
Note ~ recently heard about the current GI Bill (College). GI can not only allow spouse to use it, GI can parcel it out with some to the kids and spouse. In true MajorBS49 fashion; I said, my wife got her education paid for by the GI Bill too ~ I was the GI and it was my dollar bill. Okay, you might have wanted to have been there and under the influence of at least one dragons milk beer.
The exact same tweet is posted all over Twitter, only from accounts like zerohedge and its look-alikes – but there's zero detail and zero source. They sure look like boys who try to fool the market about the immediate China collapse and coup d'état.
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AI day:
My expectation is a computer simulated environment (already previously demoed with FSD development) with an interactive AI bot/entity All SW. This may be made accessible to the public/students for project development/simulations/experiments. Later it will be an app on the car.
Not sure if HW will be integrated but partials will be revealed. Emphasis on sensors and possibly accuracy.
It will be a Wow for the informed but a cartoon for the naysayers.
Or maybe something completely different ….
My expectation is a computer simulated environment (already previously demoed with FSD development) with an interactive AI bot/entity All SW. This may be made accessible to the public/students for project development/simulations/experiments. Later it will be an app on the car.
Not sure if HW will be integrated but partials will be revealed. Emphasis on sensors and possibly accuracy.
It will be a Wow for the informed but a cartoon for the naysayers.
Or maybe something completely different ….
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