Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Really digging the high-end trolling action here this week. Today is especially nuanced. Subtle suggestions of maybe Tesla's becoming saturated. Just like, oh I dont know......... iPhones? Lol

"I mean, everyone's already got one, right?"

Is this everyone's first day on the internet? If someone starts blasting FUD all over this thread on the day they join, AND goes by the moniker "Your Mom", there's a good chance that person's a troll.

Blowout earnings are around the corner, this nonsense is gonna pick up over the next few weeks. Be perhaps a bit more skeptical of folks.

 

[larmor]

Really digging the high-end trolling action here this week. Today is especially nuanced. Subtle suggestions of maybe Tesla's becoming saturated. Just like, oh I dont know......... iPhones? Lol

"I mean, everyone's already got one, right?"

Is this everyone's first day on the internet? If someone starts blasting FUD all over this thread on the day they join, AND goes by the moniker "Your Mom", there's a good chance that person's a troll.

Blowout earnings are around the corner, this nonsense is gonna pick up over the next few weeks. Be perhaps a bit more skeptical of folks.

If optimus can pick up an object in a pile, such as a tire and take it across the room, the level of trolling will have to be better-- maybe they will use an AI engine to generate trolling...

 

[2daMoon]

GM's plan to go from almost nothing to production of EV's in very large numbers in a short period of time is fraught with risk IMO. It might not allow time for them to learn what they did wrong with the vehicles or with manufacturing and make changes without compromising their ramp.

They've been presented with an Ultiumatum of bankwuptcy on the horizon.

Durn those torpedoes, they must move full speed ahead.

Besides, all they are hoping to accomplish is to appear competent, not actually demonstrate competency.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I am sure it's even worse (better?) here in Silicon Valley. On our street and an adjoining street (call it 15 houses total), there are 10 Teslas. Two of us have two Teslas in our driveways/garages.

I have wondered if at some point, this would be turn-off for some potential buyers. I'm a function-over-form kind of guy, so I would not hesitate, but I know there are some who need to feel different or unique.

More choices, both in terms of models but also colors, would be good. But given the demand/supply inequality right now, I support Tesla not introducing new models at this time. I trust they will know when they need to introduce another model.

Whenever every neighbourhood in every reasonably affluent neighbourhood looks like yours, THEN would be a good time for Tesla to introduce additional models. Right now, the Bay area and Norway are the exceptions, not the norm. Until then, I think we mostly agree diversifying is a distraction from the growth and proliferation of Tesla.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

GM's plan to go from almost nothing to production of EV's in very large numbers in a short period of time is fraught with risk IMO. It might not allow time for them to learn what they did wrong with the vehicles or with manufacturing and make changes without compromising their ramp.

BS Barra can't even get her employees back in the office and they're gonna out manufacture Tesla??

 

[Dutchie]

Leo KoGuan makes Forbes 400....

An Elon Musk superfan made the Forbes 400 list after snapping up Tesla stock during the pandemic

With a net worth of $7.2 billion, Leo KoGuan outpaces hedge-fund billionaire George Soros and philanthropist Melinda French Gates.

www.businessinsider.com

Who on TMC will be next?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nice to see rates stabilizing today. The 10yr is down a quarter point in yield and currencies rebounded a hair against the dollar. Oil popped a bit, but should quickly fix le back down.

TSLA is somewhat being thrown into the consumer discretionary pile with AAPL today and we're missing out on a NASDAQ recovery, but that's ok. We have a P&D report around the corner that should handle things.

And if that don't do it......blowout earnings.

Max pain this week is $285(obvi). And the mega spike is still there for next week at $330c. Gonna be interesting!

 

[printf42]

I have wondered if at some point, this would be turn-off for some potential buyers. I'm a function-over-form kind of guy, so I would not hesitate, but I know there are some who need to feel different or unique.

Some people wants to be different and unique, but not in a stupid way, which is how I look at owners of some EV models.

Over time there would be some valid choices that doesn’t shout “I made bad decisions”, and that’s why Tesla is only targeting around 25% market share in 2030.

But for now, it’s still the choice between iPhone and Blackberry in most markets, Android phones are still in China, not made it across the pond yet.

 

[GOVA]

Tesla really needs some more models released...living somewhere where it seems like every 4th vehicle is a Tesla, the lack of variety is becoming apparent. The CT will certainly break things up a bit. This is a good "problem" to have.

So, Tesla releases a new model and it won't be a Tesla?

Crash safety is still important at lower speeds!

Indeed. Most crashes that can harm happen at lower speeds.

Who on TMC will be next?

The new mother?

 

[Nocturnal]

Really digging the high-end trolling action here this week. Today is especially nuanced. Subtle suggestions of maybe Tesla's becoming saturated. Just like, oh I dont know......... iPhones? Lol

"I mean, everyone's already got one, right?"

Is this everyone's first day on the internet? If someone starts blasting FUD all over this thread on the day they join, AND goes by the moniker "Your Mom", there's a good chance that person's a troll.

Blowout earnings are around the corner, this nonsense is gonna pick up over the next few weeks. Be perhaps a bit more skeptical of folks.

As an owner it sure was more fun when my model 3 stopped traffic (I have a wrap and wheels to stand out a little now at least) but as an investor I hope they get so common that nobody even notices them. I'll just have to drive my roadster when that happens.

 

[woodisgood]

Nice to see rates stabilizing today. The 10yr is down a quarter point in yield and currencies rebounded a hair against the dollar. Oil popped a bit, but should quickly fix le back down.

TSLA is somewhat being thrown into the consumer discretionary pile with AAPL today and we're missing out on a NASDAQ recovery, but that's ok. We have a P&D report around the corner that should handle things.

And if that don't do it......blowout earnings.

Max pain this week is $285(obvi). And the mega spike is still there for next week at $330c. Gonna be interesting!

Is there a way to see when that 330 spike was born?

 

[BitJam]

Some Tesla glass is laminated glass. There are no double paned glass windows in any Tesla car ever made.

I have a double paned roof in my Model Y. Granted, one of the panes is polycarbonate.

 

[Discoducky]

There were articles as recent as 2011 which predicted Windows Phone would be the dominant player in the smartphone industry within 5 years. They quoted IDC who are for some reason respected in that space even though they say things like the above and often publish numbers which contradict those on Apple’s financial statements.

A lot of these analysts get paid by the existing major players (legacy auto) for large amounts of “market research”. The same analysts who frequently get quoted in the press (who also take large amounts of advertising dollars from those same companies).

It’s all done in a sort of arms length arrangement. Forbes gets to quote a “Respected Analyst”, they get to collect advertising dollars from GM. There was never an agreement to pay for that content… was there?

I've experienced how that stuff happens as it is brash VPs who spout complete nonsense (I was on XBOX Live and we supported the Windows Phone marketplace and app store; complete dumpster fire), but since they are in a place of power and supposed knowledge about their business, it is soaked up endlessly by pay-for-play journalists.

MS paid dearly to throw that narrative around as they were getting crushed by iPhone and trying to do the same thing with Bing to Google Search. Things like this are oh so obvious to people who know HW, SW and cloud services.

Example: I worked on the Google Play Store crafting better Search results for a year before I understood how the pieces fit together in the stack...my goodness it is confusing....but it is super efficient, scales better than anything else and dominates like no other product in history...so there's that.

This is playing out on a much larger stage now with Tesla and every legacy OEM that they are crushing along with petroleum/energy (the deepest darkest pockets on the planet). It's nuts how much money is seemingly being paid for FUD with click-bait titles on a daily basis.

And people continue to fall for it as they have no idea how anything works that has a battery. Not a clue. They use it everyday and they might even be an analyst whose job depends on understanding the business, but at the end of the day have no sense at all how the thing works and thus mutter phrases that sound like they come from a confused dribbling toddler. But, here we are, a decade later and it is STILL HAPPENING...

 

[dhanson865]

I have a double paned roof in my Model Y. Granted, one of the panes is polycarbonate.

Really? How big is the air gap between panes?

If that question confuses you please go back and see Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable where I explained the difference between double pane and laminated and posted a diagram of double pane glass.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is there a way to see when that 330 spike was born?

There is, but I don't know where. You can ask in the other thread but I'm pretty sure it was about 10 days ago.

90% sure it was before the Fed meeting last Wednesday. Poor bastard probably threw his TV out the window when Powell took the steam out of things.

 

[scubastevo80]

Whenever every neighbourhood in every reasonably affluent neighbourhood looks like yours, THEN would be a good time for Tesla to introduce additional models. Right now, the Bay area and Norway are the exceptions, not the norm. Until then, I think we mostly agree diversifying is a distraction from the growth and proliferation of Tesla.

There's as many 3/Y's on the road as Honda Civic's out in suburban NJ by me. Introduction of a new model may take 3+ years to build/deliver, so one could reason that Tesla starts that process early at any sign of saturation for the 3/Y's. If they can continue to sell 3/Y's at 50% YoY growth globally when factoring in the Cybertruck rollout, I agree there's no reason to add more complexity and lower margins to their already stellar production and delivery process.

 

[jw934]

Is there a way to see when that 330 spike was born?

Likely to be on Sept 20. with 4.61M contracts traded.
Link: Yahoo Finance

But that just my guess and not for certain because the chart only show the trade volume and not the open contracts.

This web site provide historical option chain details, but need a subscription to access historical data to compare Sept 20 vs 21..

 

[BornToFly]

Less than 3 trading left until record P&D..... TSLA down again while RIVN and LCID green....

My plan seems to be working

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My plan seems to be working

Are you trying to get @StarFoxisDown! fired up about the beta? The market owes us another +2.8%.

Maybe they'll hand it over tomorrow.

 

[unk45]

It's only a Teslafornia issue.

Have you been in Oslo lately?