mars_or_bust
Member
Or the annexation of Chechoslovakia. Or the invasion of Poland. The more the world waited, the worse Hitler/Putin got.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Or the annexation of Chechoslovakia. Or the invasion of Poland. The more the world waited, the worse Hitler/Putin got.
Sucks. I’m exposed, but hopefully can ride this outSelling 15% is not calming when you too have margin
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Sunk cost fallacy?
How do you specifically define "may not be able to ride out the current environment", and why would that condition be affected by the original purchase price of the investor's TSLA shares? I mean, cost basis has implications for taxes, but that's all. Learning to forget about purchase price and overcome irrational loss aversion are two of the most important fundamental investing skills.
Krugerrand
Meow
I did list the dictionary first, indicating it was the more important of the two items. Priorities.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Since I've probably been the most vocal about this here I can assure you that it's not Elons right to have an opinion I'm mad at. Not even him having a dumb opinion. It's the way he choose to express it. A short twitter message (and a poll in those bot infested waters, really???) will not and can not explain his reasoning and it's 100% certain it will create confusion of intent, ridicule, hate and a number of other non positive reactions.
Stalin. Lithuania, Estonia. Parts of Finland, Hungary...
For the brand Tesla in Europe, Musk need to be very very careful. A lot of these countries have fresh history being suppressed by the russians for decades until late 80ies, in the same way they try in Ukraine.
Musk's seemingly lack of historical understanding of what is going on is sad. A brand associated with pro russian politics is a disaster.
Krugerrand
Meow
And while I agree with you, if the nuclear weapons deploy people will be wishing they could go back in time and make a different decision.
Captkerosene
Member
A few days ago I had a two hour conversation with a young former US Marine. He's in the global arms trade now and lived in Russia for several years. He is fluent in Russian and incredibly knowledgeable about the country. I've been an investor in Russia and studying the country since 2014 (when their stock market got really cheap) so I was very interested in his opinion on the war.
The TLDR on our conversation was that if we went to war with them he would be fighting on Russia's side ... not ours. That's a pretty bold statement from a former US Marine. Basically, Putin is beloved in his country and the West has been badly mistreating Russia for a long time. That Putin wanted to establish much closer ties to the West but has been vilified and ostracized instead.
Americans have no idea about Russia or Putin. They believe the media even though they see how badly biased it can be in their treatment of Tesla. Just imagine how biased their treatment of Russia is given the politics of the situation.
Elon is exactly right in his poll.
I expect this to be deleted. My previous comment on the war was.
The TLDR on our conversation was that if we went to war with them he would be fighting on Russia's side ... not ours. That's a pretty bold statement from a former US Marine. Basically, Putin is beloved in his country and the West has been badly mistreating Russia for a long time. That Putin wanted to establish much closer ties to the West but has been vilified and ostracized instead.
Americans have no idea about Russia or Putin. They believe the media even though they see how badly biased it can be in their treatment of Tesla. Just imagine how biased their treatment of Russia is given the politics of the situation.
Elon is exactly right in his poll.
I expect this to be deleted. My previous comment on the war was.
Just got the best news imaginable. My current house sitting has been extended past May, so my time frame for home purchase has been extended also! If this didn’t happen I’d be sugaring bricks by Christmas.
I’m gonna be a rich little fancy boy someday, but that day is not today
Tmrw maybe….
I’m gonna be a rich little fancy boy someday, but that day is not today
Tmrw maybe….
What a load of horse hockey. Putin cares only for himself and has caused untold suffering for millions of people. Your friend sounds easily swayed by propaganda
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
It's borderline offensive to hear someone calling this non relevant to Tesla. I guarantee you that tomorrow there will be millions of Europeans having a more negative view of Elon and to pretend this doesn't have an impact of how Tesla is perceived here is plain wrong. That's not even considering the 40+ million of Ukrainians that rightfully will not support any Elon companies for quite some time.
This is starting to hit mainstream media here and almost all I've seen takes a negative view. The one I've seen that does not is tass.com
And by the way. It IS offensive for you to refer to this as a "thing"
Gross. I suggest you make some higher quality friends. Sounds like he would have got along splendidly with Lee Harvey Oswald.
I see the clouds and doom only in the short term. Once “demand” concern starts being asked because of actions of a company, the P/E compression can be irrational and by a lot. This year has just been one thing after another that’s kneecapped Tesla from growing like they wanted and thus compressing the P/E in a natural way….meaning the earnings growth is so high that even with gains in the stock, the PE still continually compresses
Obviously we here see the wave ending as a good thing. Institutional investors obviously see it as demand weakening. So for the next 3 months, yeah it’s gloomy and I expect TSLA’s P/E to go lower than it was in June. That doesn’t necessarily mean that TSLA is going lower than it’s June low since Q3’s earnings will bring down the TTM P/E considerably, but it is what it is. For TSLA to get its proper P/E valuation, institutional investors along with most of Wall St need to believe in the future growth.
Now once we get to Q4 P/D numbers, Tesla will have its chance to proven the demand worries to be unfounded and with it, I think the combination of earnings YoY growth combined with institutional investors regaining confidence in Tesla’s future growth will lead to Tesla having a Forward P/E that a company that’s growing earnings 100%+ YoY (which is a number that at minimum has tripled digits in it).
As for @Gigapress , be careful man. You can’t control macros or the Fed and there’s always the Elon Twitter factor that could send the stock into a temporary tailspin
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I’ll raise my hand.
First, it’s not costing me money, as I’ve neither purchased on margin nor speculated in derivatives. On the contrary, most of my personal investment angst is in deciding whether to take advantage of this buying opportunity by selling….what?…amongst my other holdings.
Rather, keeping in line with what I wrote 1 or 2 pages back, Mr Musk has earned my irritation because yet again he eschews writing thoughtfully - AS WE KNOW HE CAN! - and instead not only engages in a tail-lifting contest with skunks, but goes out of his way to find and provoke them.
Now - to answer the frustration of the poster who wishes today’s Twitter-related posts were not dominating the thread:
The reason I am not going to accede to that is because, sadly enough, the fortunes of Tesla qua TSLA are, in the medium- and long-term, decided by institutional investors - my former colleagues, collaborators, competitors…and family. And in this turn of the screw, they collectively are hypersensitive to inputs, emotions, poorly thought-out remarks and many other currents rather than a company’s performance metrics.
Is that their “fault”? No, not entirely. The IIs themselves have masters other than their corporate heads: those are the pension funds and individuals who entrust their own funds to the IIs, and when they pull out of the market, the II absolutely MUST sell.
And there we are.
The brand was associated with the Democrats, then with Trump.
The brand was associated with ‘woke’ California, then with Texas and it’s abortion policies.
The brand was associated with ‘evil’ China (Gigafactory), then with the ‘evil’ US (Taiwan).
The brand was associated with Covid deniers, and still is.
The brand was associated with bitcoin (when they bought it), then against it (when they sold).
The brand was associated with green energy, then with nuclear.
The brand was associated with free speech (buying Twitter), then against it (not buying Twitter).
The brand was associated with Ukraine (Starlink), then with the Russians.
…
By now Elon has alienated the whole world with his associations, yet this year a record 1.4 million people are paying big money to buy one if his cars. Something is off.
I enjoy your posts. I think you need to revisit your 2023 ASP expectations though. The collapse in global currencies vs the US dollar I think means any large leap in non-US vehicle pricing is unlikely.
The most popular models being churned out of GigaShanghai now are priced under $40K USD.
For example here are the current prices we have down here in New Zealand:
Model Y RWD (SR): $37,768 USD
Model 3 RWD (SR): $37,124 USD
(Model Y: $76,200 NZD incl 15% sales tax. $66,260 NZD less sales tax. US dollar conversion rate 0.57c = $37,768 USD)
(Model 3: $74,900 NZD incl 15% sales tax. $65,130 NZD less sales tax. US dollar conversion rate 0.57c = $37,124 USD)
(note: NZ dollar briefly fell to USD 55c in past week, which meant for a brief moment there was a Model 3 available for ~$35k USD. The prophecy was fulfilled)
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Most people just want a cool car but man, sure would be nice if he didn't try to piss off every group he can find.
"Sunken Cost Fallacy" - a little out of touch perhaps? Not everyone on this site can contemplate financial theories or debate the best way to manufacture EV vehicles. Some just want to make a better living for themselves (and perhaps at the same time save the planet) by investing in a once in a generation companySunk cost fallacy?
How do you specifically define "may not be able to ride out the current environment", and why would that condition be affected by the original purchase price of the investor's TSLA shares? I mean, cost basis has implications for taxes, but that's all. Learning to forget about purchase price and overcome irrational loss aversion are two of the most important fundamental investing skills.
at a fortuitous point in time. Many of us on this board have $1 mil plus to "laugh off" days like this and harken back to other worse moments in TSLA history. Some, however, may have taken a leap of faith by investing $10,000, $20,000 or $100,000 when the stock price was $1,000 pre recent split. I don't take their financial pain lightly or point to theories I may have learned in grad school as mere talking points.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
That's where the prediction of 25 P/E as the minimum comes in. In other words, I strongly doubt any market pullback would result in TSLA being less than 100x the latest quarter's earnings, which is basically $1.08 since that's what Q1 was and what Wall Street expects for Q3. So it's really hard to imagine TSLA being lower than $108, at which point I still have enough designed-in safety margin to be financially solvent without anything else changing.
Beyond my margin loan, a car loan and some credit card debt (0% interest for 18 months with no strings attached), I have few liabilities: no mortgage, no dependents, no student loan debt. My actual cashflow needs are minimal; I retired at 27 by biking everywhere, living with roommates, making my own food, generally not buying stuff, etc. When you know how to spend money efficiently, $30k/yr can go a long way for an individual in the US. I also don't need to live in Seattle and could go back home to the Midwest or somewhere where rent and food are much cheaper. Even if I stay in Seattle, 30 hours/week making $20/hour at Chipotle would suffice to pay all my bills.
Meanwhile, I have many valuable assets that can't be touched by the stock market or Elon's social media habits. For example: Health, youth, US citizenship, engineering degree from an elite school, Boeing career (and contacts there who I know would've preferred I had never walked away in the first place), analytical skills, English fluency, and also the TMC network here. If necessary, I can exploit these assets to generate income to ride out a severe down time for TSLA. I can also just go to grad school and then go work at Microsoft or something.
An appropriate an succinct summary of the situation, well done.
The market of new car buyers is huge - probably somewhere around half a billion people who buy a new car every 3-7 years maybe. So even with Elon alienating wide swaths of people with his stupid twitter posts, it likely wont show up in demand issues when Tesla is selling just a couple of million units a year.
It will however at some point show up, especially if Elon keeps posting the same sort of crap that he did today, be it at a 5 million run rate, or a 10 million run rate, at which point the brand is going to have to try a lot harder to penetrate into those groups.
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