It is sad to say but the option with the lower probability of a Nuclear winter is the one the humanity will benefit most, however this outcome would not benefit Ukrainians most. It’s a dilemma between who should get the most happy ending: the world or the good guys?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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It is sad to say but the option with the lower probability of a Nuclear winter is the one the humanity will benefit most, however this outcome would not benefit Ukrainians most. It’s a dilemma between who should get the most happy ending: the world or the good guys?
This is completely off topic. Back to geo politics please.
It is somewhat ironic that analysts ding Tesla because they are not pursuing the $25k Tesla, but Tesla isn't pursuing the $25k car because they can't make enough Model Ys and Model 3s to meet demand.
It's likely we'll see more noise on the Robotaxi and/ or budget Tesla next year as Tesla's Model Y production continued to explode.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
What does any of that have to do with the Master Plan? Elon has executed product rollout to maximize EV penetration, literally to the point where it's raw input limited. Nothing else really matters.
Drumheller
Active Member
Appeasement. Let the bully with the big stick have his way. Just this once. He won't try for more after that.
Recent history disagrees
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FSD is not a solved problem yet, Tesla don’t want to rollout half baked solution just to impress people. No one knew what it would take to solve it, but if you watched FSD beta videos the past year, you know it came a long way and feels close.
Semi and CyberTruck were delayed not because they couldn’t get them done. It’s because they are battery constrained, rolling out these high capacity models will reduce total unit of deliveries and slow down the mission, not accelerating it.
Robots are the obvious next step need to be explored, but Tesla is not distracted from its current mission for doing it, they are recruiting new people for that, and not diverting much resources from other programs. And, they are not spending big bucks on it until it’s proven to be useful. Other billion dollar companies spend much more on pet projects than you’d imagine. Elon talks about pet ideas all the time, HVAC, leaf blowers, jets, boats, but when it comes to real spending, he’s very frugal and I trust him.
Tesla is probably the most lean R&D org you could find, if another company was doing as much in-house R&D as Tesla is doing, I wouldn’t be surprised by 10x the R&D budget.(Just look at Rivian, which probably is among the leaner ones out there)
The people who doesn’t take Elon seriously anymore had never taken him seriously and had been claiming whatever he had done to be impossible for decades.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
What does any of that have to do with the Master Plan? Elon has executed product rollout to maximize EV penetration, literally to the point where it's raw input limited. Nothing else really matters
Elon also understands the long-term implications of what's already happened to date. The new level of isolation Putin has forced combined with the coal-esque end of oil & gas that's just around the corner has doomed Russia as a superpower.
There's no real avenue to recovery from here, so the priority should be deescalation.
Not to mention Ukraine has a bright future as a NATO member, EU member, and potential Gigafactory location. Sacrificing Crimea for that future isn't the end of the world. They can have it back when the Russian Federation begins to crumble in 2026/27.
A more likely outcome is Elon buys Twitter and purges it of propaganda bots and the echo chamber algorithm. A world with less polarizing propaganda would be more peaceful.
Russia won‘t stop with these areas and wouldn’t stop with the whole of Ukraine, they’re trying to fracture the entire EU and everyone in the region is at risk.
Elon is missing the forest for the trees
Elon is missing the forest for the trees
Gawd I hate twitter...and I hate that silly poll.
Facts are, there was a vote in 1991 and the Ukrainian people overwhelmingly voted to be part of Ukraine.
There is very little chance a vote could be held in the areas that russia just annexed. It is a bombed out ruin in the middle of a war zone. Many of the people that lived there have left...do they return to vote?... Would you?
Appeasing a dictator is a recipe for further aggression from said dictator.
I don't think Elon thought this one through.
Facts are, there was a vote in 1991 and the Ukrainian people overwhelmingly voted to be part of Ukraine.
There is very little chance a vote could be held in the areas that russia just annexed. It is a bombed out ruin in the middle of a war zone. Many of the people that lived there have left...do they return to vote?... Would you?
Appeasing a dictator is a recipe for further aggression from said dictator.
I don't think Elon thought this one through.
I'm pretty sure Russia is out of gas and running on fumes right now. They lost a bunch of men, a bunch of smart people, most of their western economy, and no chips to resupply. Pretty sure they can't take on anything else without launching nukes and start cheating.
This is a false dilemma fallacy. There are plenty of scenarios that resolve with Ukrainian victory (i.e. territorial integrity and right of self determination), and that also have no nuclear winter. The problem with giving in to nuclear blackmail of a genocidal invader is that it's only a stopgap, and pretty soon they'll be back for more, but now with even higher stakes. Russia had Crimea for 8 years as appeasement, did that suffice? No, it did not. And so lower probability of nuclear winter does not necessarily follow appeasement. A more meaningful peace would follow from radical changes in Russia. These changes will come quicker if Ukraine is successful on the battlefield and Russia is pressured by sanctions.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
You are correct in terms of what Putin wanted and expected before the (latest) invasion. Not any more though.
As long as sanctions remain for high-tech and preferably much more, Russian Federation military won't restore its abilities or ability to instil fear. Economy should be impoverished over time, demographics get worse, brain drains, land of pensioners, unable to maintain nuclear bluff/threat.
As a victim of Russian meddling in my country - doing real harm to individuals and systemically - I want Ukraine to get everything it wants and the aggressors punished.
I'm resigned to risk a nuclear strike - but I'd prefer not to, I have no choice anyway. Every country with nukes is a threat. I grew up under threat of nuclear attack, it remains.
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mars_or_bust
Member
Gawd I hate twitter...and I hate that silly poll.
Facts are, there was a vote in 1991 and the Ukrainian people overwhelmingly voted to be part of Ukraine.
There is very little chance a vote could be held in the areas that russia just annexed. It is a bombed out ruin in the middle of a war zone. Many of the people that lived there have left...do they return to vote?... Would you?
Appeasing a dictator is a recipe for further aggression from said dictator.
I don't think Elon thought this one through.
No, Elon seemed too enamored by the Thiel/Sacks/Tucker extreme right wing crowd on this topic to have thought it through, unfortunately. And he thus does not realize that these guys are against Ukraine bacause Ukraine is winning to a large degree because of USA/Biden, which makes the Republicans lose votes.
But he seems to try to backtrack a bit, realizing the pandora's box he unnecessarily created. Now it is just about Crimea (not anymore Donbas, etc), and it is not about referendums, but simply about what might be considered a pragmatic compromise (it is not, of course). Big difference, but unfortunately too late, a lot of reputational damage is done. He even now attacked Kasparov, as somebody who only tweets and does nothing... Kasparov, who was beaten up by the Russian police, who wrote a book 10 years ago warning exactly what will happen if Putin is appeased :-(
Tricky question: Which is the one of the above that has a zero chance ever of occurring?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You can't piss off one group without the counterpart of that group saying, "right on man!".
And if you really want a Tesla, you are going to remember that Elon was on your side! Because who wants to buy a car from someone that has never supported their viewpoints? Most humans are positive people and they remember the good and try to forget the bad. Elon is harnessing the power of behavioral psychology and he has a proven track record of creating demand beyond most peoples wildest imagination. Don't argue with success as Elon has not changed. This should be self-evident, but some people are apparently slow learners.
On a related note, I strongly recommend anyone who thinks they are a good investor to read and absorb the Wiki page about "Sunk Cost fallacies" that was posted earlier by @Gigapress :
Because people think they are immune to principles discovered and proven by behavioral psychology but, without an understanding of human biases and tendencies, you are bound to repeat them. In fact, even if you understand these human tendencies (weaknesses), you might still repeat them. But raising your awareness of these human frailties could also give you a fighting chance to resist blatant mistakes and improve your financial condition substantially. Read and learn.
Well, today has been a rare day as Tesla Investor.
The stock tanks after record production and delivery numbers, and on a green market day no less. Elon tweets a quagmire and the political world loses its composure. This thread goes way off the rails and becomes a Ukraine / Russia political discussion. A stray cat I haven't seen for a year just shows up on my porch like no time has passed at all, friendly as ever. I discovered Apple Fritter Pop-Tarts. Oh and my Model Y got a flat tire, but I was able to fix it with a plug thankfully.
Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!
The stock tanks after record production and delivery numbers, and on a green market day no less. Elon tweets a quagmire and the political world loses its composure. This thread goes way off the rails and becomes a Ukraine / Russia political discussion. A stray cat I haven't seen for a year just shows up on my porch like no time has passed at all, friendly as ever. I discovered Apple Fritter Pop-Tarts. Oh and my Model Y got a flat tire, but I was able to fix it with a plug thankfully.
Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!
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