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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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"Owners of the Tesla Model Y Performance will hopefully soon be able to download ‘Track Mode’ through a free over-the-air (OTA) software update after CEO Elon Musk said ‘ok’ to a request on Twitter to add it to the electric SUV."

 
Some earnings ..
BAC had good earnings today.
tomorrow we have NFLX ... hope it doesn't bring down he NAS ...

Have 230 calls for this week(bought last Fri) and 250 for next week ... both green now .... fear/greed ..what should I do :(
(+ based on recent ups and downs, I think I will close soon and not get greedy ... but max Pain at 250 and market /DOW could recover upto 800 points like last week ) ++CLOSED!!
 
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This seems bullish…


Tesla this week listed over 6,900 jobs on its career website, almost a 50% surge since mid-June, when Reuters began tracking the data. That compares to a 2022 peak of over 7,400 job ads in May, according to data similarly tracked by Thinknum Alternative Data and hedge fund Snow Bull Capital.
 
Forward Observing

White knuckle ~ This is the time that tries my soul.

Writing from Bilbao, Spain. Each day, we see one or maybe two Model 3s. The first day off the plane we saw a M3 taxi. Yesterday, Sunday we saw a Model S from behind ~ could not tell if it was vintage or newer. We asked our small group wine country tour guide about Tesla’s in her area. Note ~ quite a few busses in and around the city are electric. Her response was that since most city dwellers lived in apartments and no infrastructure exists to support electric cars. During both of our vineyard tours our guides stressed key points about learning to adjust for climate change.

Back in the eighties my wife and I enjoyed a white wine from the source and occasionally their ice wine. The wine from there was so good, the battalion we were forming got them to produce a label for us once I introduced them. I think my wife and I were their single best customer. Sorry, I am drifting. Our guide yesterday stressed that this Basque region was taking the lead away from Germany on Ice Wine.

On our way back home I observed two separate solar farms, and at least one wind farm.

Now, the reason this tour was so much fun, besides the too much wine, was the family from Canada.
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If this is on your garage wall and you drive a Model 3, Your son and in-laws are outstanding people. It was a pleasure to have met them! Though I understand you should relabel it from Tesla to TSLA😊

My bottom line or take away is: Tesla needs a small car that is affordable and usable in dense city situations. Maybe, just maybe putting in a Gigafactory in Spain would push the Basque region to put in that needed infrastructure. These tile roofs would work well as Tesla solar roofs.
 
I sold call when we were +4.5%, this means the stock will finish +9%

You can thank me later
Tempting because I just found out that I owe 19K today in Fed taxes... thought it was going the other way (tough CPA).

So should I drain the non-IRA acct dry and wait for better SP? Or write a check that covers on Wed, lol?

Is the IRS late fee worth it? Or send them 25% maybe. I'm not doing margins, never have, but I hadn't thought of unloading an Options to de-risk things a bit.
 
This seems bullish…


Tesla this week listed over 6,900 jobs on its career website, almost a 50% surge since mid-June, when Reuters began tracking the data. That compares to a 2022 peak of over 7,400 job ads in May, according to data similarly tracked by Thinknum Alternative Data and hedge fund Snow Bull Capital.
"Telsa steps up job ads in anticipation of two new product lines, Semi and Cybertruck" (Fixed that for Reuters)
 
Tempting because I just found out that I owe 19K today in Fed taxes... thought it was going the other way (tough CPA).

So should I drain the non-IRA acct dry and wait for better SP? Or write a check that covers on Wed, lol?

Is the IRS late fee worth it?
I think the late fee is 0.5% per month, and started when the tax was due, 4/18/2022. So you are already paying ~6% extra. (I think they tack interest on top as well.) It is up to you if you think it is worth it. (Obviously this year you would have been better off selling TSLA and paying the taxes on time.)
 
Man, the bears sure are loving Troy all of the sudden. I have to admit, I'm a bit puzzled as to why he thinks Tesla will be unable to deliver 50k cars in Q4. If there really is a dip in the D word I don't see how Tesla can't easily manage that.

He appears to have a combo of taking the "ending the wave" claim to its extreme (meaning significantly higher # in transit at end of Q4), plus using historic highs for non-china/non-NA sales, plus china sales, to suggest there's nobody to deliver the extra increased China production to in Q4.

The nobody to buy them argument he covers here-

and discussion of the end of wave stuff (and why he thinks there'll be a china price cut) here:

I believe there's already been some discussion in this thread on the potential flaws in his demand and end of wave math.... can't recall seeing any on china pricing though
 
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A friend, who I've steered toward buying TSLA, has been jumping through hoops trying to get his broker to set up an account he can trade without having to call an agent each time. It has been weeks now, going through the motions of allegedly their writing a check and snail-mailing it between the two internal divisions of the company to accomplish this. (Prudential maybe?) I've told him from the get-go that he should move his money to Fidelity, Schwab, TD, or any broker that won't take weeks to process something this straight-forward.

He's been getting quite anxious lately, hoping they will get it done while the Blue Light Special sale is going on.

This morning I sent him a message saying they must be getting close, because the SP is going up. 😁 Was that cruel? 😏
 
I think the late fee is 0.5% per month, and started when the tax was due, 4/18/2022. So you are already paying ~6% extra. (I think they tack interest on top as well.) It is up to you if you think it is worth it. (Obviously this year you would have been better off selling TSLA and paying the taxes on time.)
I’m kind of in this situation right now too. I owe instalment payments for this year based on what I made last year. The Canadian government says interest will be charged if I’m late with the instalment payments and they gave two options on how to do the instalment payments. One was equal payments each quarter and the other were “small” amounts the first two quarters and big amounts the second two. I decided on the first option but my big payment was due on September 15. I don’t know what the interest rate is and from what I can tell I’m thinking it would be worth it just wait until after Q4. Anyways, does anybody has some knowledge about this? Oh and this year I made way less cause I didn’t sell a bunch of stock to by my house like I did the pervious year. I should probably talk to my accountant haha
 
I’m kind of in this situation right now too. I owe instalment payments for this year based on what I made last year. The Canadian government says interest will be charged if I’m late with the instalment payments and they gave two options on how to do the instalment payments. One was equal payments each quarter and the other were “small” amounts the first two quarters and big amounts the second two. I decided on the first option but my big payment was due on September 15. I don’t know what the interest rate is and from what I can tell I’m thinking it would be worth it just wait until after Q4. Anyways, does anybody has some knowledge about this? Oh and this year I made way less cause I didn’t sell a bunch of stock to by my house like I did the pervious year. I should probably talk to my accountant haha

It hurts right now, but just pay it. It's a sunk cost; best not to ever get in trouble, or "creative", with government payments.

I think @StealthP3D or @Artful Dodger once talked about selling at highs enough to fulfill needs while TSLA was at ~$1200. I took that to heart (alongside advice from family, friends, and financial advisor) and moved a partial amount at TSLA around $1150 last year to get into passive income streams for this exact reason among a few others. I've been very happy with that decision for the entirety of this year and just riding everything out as there was likely to be a blowback from a 15-20x increase in 1.5-2 years.
 
Some demand analysis courtesy of our friends Karen and Fact Checking.
Tempting because I just found out that I owe 19K today in Fed taxes... thought it was going the other way (tough CPA).

So should I drain the non-IRA acct dry and wait for better SP? Or write a check that covers on Wed, lol?

Is the IRS late fee worth it? Or send them 25% maybe. I'm not doing margins, never have, but I hadn't thought of unloading an Options to de-risk things a bit.
If you owe less than 50k you can get a payment plan for quite a few years. Interest isn't crazy and the out of pocket expense in the meantime would be very low.
 
Some dark clouds looming from this weekend's Party Congress in China. Taiwan may get assimilated in the near term. If so, US intelligence experts say US business with China will be severely curtailed if not completely stopped. TSLA Shanghai will likely survive with the same name on the door (maybe depending on Elon's tweets) but many countries will restrict imports.

And TSM's take over will put the hurt on many US industries until we have adequate fab capacity (10-20 years?). Hopefully Taiwan companies and staff transition before it's too late.