Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

And natural gas kept going down this week.
Currently at 140 euro, another 10% down this week: ICE Futures and Options

One trading day later, closed another 10% down at 123 euro.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It hurts right now, but just pay it. It's a sunk cost; best not to ever get in trouble, or "creative", with government payments.

I think @StealthP3D or @Artful Dodger once talked about selling at highs enough to fulfill needs while TSLA was at ~$1200. I took that to heart (alongside advice from family, friends, and financial advisor) and moved a partial amount at TSLA around $1150 last year to get into passive income streams for this exact reason among a few others. I've been very happy with that decision for the entirety of this year and just riding everything out as there was likely to be a blowback from a 15-20x increase in 1.5-2 years.

It’s better to be lucky than good. Sounds like the same advice I was given at 900 pre-pre-split. Am I bitter and jealous of your good fortune? Yes! Nice work you bastard.

 

[Nocturnal]

At this rate we might even crack Friday's opening SP!

 

[EverettRuess]

View attachment 864739

I won't believe anything until StarFox comments.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Now I've seen it all. According to this "analyst," Tesla selling more cars will be...wait for it...bad for the stock. Just some Monday morning humor for you.

Tesla Could Be a ‘Zombie Stock’ as Interest Rates Rise

New Constructs CEO David Trainer says the EV maker's stock, down nearly 40% so far this year, has more room to fall.

www.marketwatch.com

Investors might think that growth would lift Tesla stock out of the zombie zone, but the reverse could be true. The larger Tesla’s car business gets, the more investors will treat the company like a car stock, giving it a valuation like those of other auto manufacturers, according to Trainer.

“If we assume Tesla sells 9% more vehicles than Toyota [in 2031] Tesla has 56%+ downside,” Trainer wrote. The logic is that for Tesla to get that big, its operating profit margins would have to fall to match those of its competitors. For Tesla, sales 9% higher than Toyota’s and comparable operating profit margins would yield roughly $44 billion in 2031 operating profit.

It’s a big number, but only 80% higher than what is now expected for 2023. According to Trainer’s financial model, that justifies a current share price of only $90 for Tesla stock, while the price was above $200 on Monday morning.

 

[betstarship]

It’s better to be lucky than good. Sounds like the same advice I was given at 900 pre-pre-split. Am I bitter and jealous of your good fortune? Yes! Nice work you bastard.

Just trying to share a learning and a result that worked out! Its really up to you if you want to listen to my learning...as for the bitterness and jealousy, sorry - not the intent to spark that.

 

[Terminator857]

The price of fsd is proportional to it's potential usefulness over the ~10 yr life of the car. Fsd is actually very cheap for what you get (a software and hardware vertical stack with $billions and countless hours invested). There's no competition.

A dream that is by any neutral viewpoint false , particular in light of Elon being wrong year after year on this subject. Similar to selling snake oil as a cure all. Selling of vaporware year after year. Hardware has never been able to do the full self driving job even though first, second and third revisions have been sold as able to do so. What a joke that keeps being peddled.

 

[Ogre]

I don't disagree, @Ogre . I applaud Elon for being incredibly pragmatic and unemotional - it's enabled him to make brilliant business decisions.

But as we all know, that's not the same as being diplomatic. And just like family Thanksgiving dinners can quickly disintegrate into feuds and rash actions when people voice political opinions, many don't think Elon is 'authorized' to opine about global affairs - and in fact, it's dangerous and counter-productive when he does. On another forum I defended Elon by arguing that Twitter is simply the most democratic public forum there is, "Elon the Billionaire" didn't buy followers, ignore him if you prefer.

But being 'right' (like every opinionated Thanksgiving guest of course won't please all the people. And as this is an investor forum, do we really believe such posts from Elon will be positive for TSLA? Again, my short OP didn't say yay or nay about what Elon said. I just said "here we go again"!

"Again" could potentially be every day. Nearly every comment Musk makes is viewed by some people as the most heinous thing ever said.

While I get frustrated by some comments he makes (like the one where he suggests how the war should be settled), this is not one of them. You have to be pretty thin skinned to be bothered by the idea that someone is concerned about nuclear escalation in a very tense situation. I'm sure there are plenty out there, but the Ukrainian Ambassador isn't going to tell Musk to F* Off due to this one.

 

[BornToFly]

TSLA up today because market front running great earnings!...

- checks RIVN

Never mind.....

 

[powertoold]

A dream that is by any neutral viewpoint false , particular in light of Elon being wrong year after year on this subject. Similar to selling snake oil as a cure all. Selling of vaporware year after year. Hardware has never been able to do the full self driving job even though first, second and third revisions have been sold as able to do so. What a joke that keeps being peddled.

Like I said, the cost of FSD is proportional to its likelihood of usefulness for the life of the car.

People expecting a true robotaxi for $5-10k are the one's that are dreaming.

What I'm saying has no relation to Elon's confidence about FSD at x, y, z point of time.

 

[Pezpunk]

Fsd is actually very cheap for what you get (a software and hardware vertical stack with $billions and countless hours invested). There's no competition.

A thing’s value is not determined by the money and time put into it, it’s worth whatever value it provides.

FSD in its current form does not provide anywhere near what it costs. Anyone who bought it say 5 years ago and is now ready to trade in that car got ripped off, and that’s sad. They paid full price for a product that was never released beyond beta testing.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Now I've seen it all. According to this "analyst," Tesla selling more cars will be...wait for it...bad for the stock. Just some Monday morning humor for you.

Tesla Could Be a ‘Zombie Stock’ as Interest Rates Rise

New Constructs CEO David Trainer says the EV maker's stock, down nearly 40% so far this year, has more room to fall.

www.marketwatch.com

“If we assume Tesla sells 9% more vehicles than Toyota [in 2031] Tesla has 56%+ downside,” Trainer wrote. The logic is that for Tesla to get that big, its operating profit margins would have to fall to match those of its competitors. For Tesla, sales 9% higher than Toyota’s and comparable operating profit margins would yield roughly $44 billion in 2031 operating profit.

That word does not apply to that idiot, i am sure he is good buddies with Gordo and share text messages on a daily basis.

 

[powertoold]

A thing is not worth the money put into it, it’s worth whatever value it provides. FSD in its current form does not provide anywhere near what it costs. Anyone who bought it say 5 years ago and is now ready to trade in that car got ripped off, and that’s sad. They paid full price for a product that was never released beyond beta testing.

I don't want to prolong this discussion. It's been rehashed for the 100th time lol. Final post!

No one paid full price for a finished product. That was very clear when they bought it.

5 years ago, OEMs were charging 2-7k for simple TACC, either directly or indirectly through trim upgrades. Tesla was charging 3-5k for FSD 5 years ago. To expect a finished robotaxi for the same price as TACC is unreasonable, IMO, considering we knew it was a product in development. The cost is proportional to low / high risk of it being unfinished.

 

[Ogre]

TSLA up today because market front running great earnings!...

- checks RIVN

Never mind.....

It's certainly due to news that Tesla is hiring. Considering the hit we took when they had a hiring freeze, it must be the news that Tesla is hiring everywhere right?

* checks LCID

Never mind...

 

[scaesare]

Or maybe Gigapress needs to publish on a blog…

Uh oh... first the gigaposts, now referring to themselves in 3rd person....

*scared*

 

[Words of HABIT]

Only luxury brand that's growing YoY? NO WAY!!


View attachment 864734

Awesome US figures. Thought they deserved some love.

 

[Pezpunk]

No one paid full price for a finished product. That was very clear when they bought it.

5 years ago, OEMs were charging 2-7k for simple TACC, either directly or indirectly through trim upgrades. Tesla was charging 3-5k for FSD 5 years ago. To expect a finished robotaxi for the same price as TACC is unreasonable, IMO, considering we knew it was a product in development. The cost is proportional to low / high risk of it being unfinished.

This is such a weird mental knot to tie yourself in to justify Tesla charging people $3 - $5k for a product they could not use until years after they purchased their vehicle, and even then only in a limited, beta form. Your position is basically “well, the buyers should have KNOWN Elon and Tesla’s marketing were lying! Jeez!”

 

[MountainRatMat]

I'm in that last boat. Paid $7500 for EAP after delivery, and snagged FSD upgrade for 2k. So no complaints at all.

The only downside currently is that I would have upgraded my model 3 to a 2022 while waiting for my CT but the 15k FSD purchase (and not getting enough value on the used sale) killed it for me.

What does this have to do with investing?

I think I've got a case of the Monday's, came here to see the happenings around the stock price and the fact that my phone screen actually does still have the ability to show green colors and it's all posts about the war and off topic.

Thanks in advance to the moderators, you have a thankless job and keeping us in line is much appreciated.

 

[Ogre]

Awesome US figures. Thought they deserved some love.

View attachment 864746

Exactly how many quarters will they be able to continue saying "Due to Parts shortages..." and get away with it?

 

[DanCar]

Like I said, the cost of FSD is proportional to its likelihood of usefulness for the life of the car.

People expecting a true robotaxi for $5-10k are the one's that are dreaming.

What I'm saying has no relation to Elon's confidence about FSD at x, y, z point of time.

Thanks for clarifying that Elon is a liar. Also Tesla made false statements on the order page saying: automatic driving on city streets available by end of 2019.
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I love optimism , but if you make a deal and take my money, then don't live up to the deal, then make things right.