Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oldTAVguy]

“If we assume Tesla sells 9% more vehicles than Toyota [in 2031] Tesla has 56%+ downside,” Trainer wrote. The logic is that for Tesla to get that big, its operating profit margins would have to fall to match those of its competitors. For Tesla, sales 9% higher than Toyota’s and comparable operating profit margins would yield roughly $44 billion in 2031 operating profit.

That word does not apply to that idiot, i am sure he is good buddies with Gordo and share text messages on a daily basis.

They may share soap in the shower.

 

[BornToFly]

Exactly how many quarters will they be able to continue saying "Due to Parts shortages..." and get away with it?

I think "Parts" is another word for customers....

 

[ZeApelido]

Now I've seen it all. According to this "analyst," Tesla selling more cars will be...wait for it...bad for the stock. Just some Monday morning humor for you.

Tesla Could Be a ‘Zombie Stock’ as Interest Rates Rise

New Constructs CEO David Trainer says the EV maker's stock, down nearly 40% so far this year, has more room to fall.

www.marketwatch.com

Yeah we've got a real genius here.

David Trainer's Articles

New Constructs is an independent research technology firm that provides unrivaled insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private & public ...

seekingalpha.com

 

[Todd Burch]

@StarFoxisDown!

Day's not over, but we're well over a +2x beta.

 

[Discoducky]

How do we know Mobileye based tech won't provide a better solution at a lower price in the 2026+ timeframe? Mobileye Solutions | From Driver Assistance to Self-Driving
... Mobileye Chauffeur™ is a turnkey self-driving system designed to turn a consumer vehicle into a Level 4 self-driven vehicle. Mobileye Chauffeur™ brings together Mobileye’s unique approach to surround vision with radar and lidar coverage into a solution for which we're targeting a cost, by 2025, of under $6,000.

We know as some of us are engineers in the field of autonomous driving and AI. Anyone can predict anything out that long into the future. Some companies are actually building it and putting it on detailed display for the whole world to see.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

What does this have to do with investing?

I think I've got a case of the Monday's, came here to see the happenings around the stock price and the fact that my phone screen actually does still have the ability to show green colors and it's all posts about the war and off topic.

Thanks in advance to the moderators, you have a thankless job and keeping us in line is much appreciated.

Many posts are OT, yet still have some value for this thread. But opinions on what Elon tweets about the Ukraine/Russia conflict have zero value. For three days now I’ve been moving dozens of these posts to the dedicated thread (9 in the last hour alone). No more. From now on they will simply be deleted.

 

[Gigapress]

I think "Parts" is another word for customers....

Or it’s another word for “management spent decades not investing in reducing friction and bureaucracy involved in engineering change orders and in some ways actively made it worse in an attempt to increase their personal power within the company and didn’t let the engineers use up-to-date microcontrollers within twenty years of the current state of the art and then predictably ran out of supply after canceling orders thus prompting semiconductor fabricators to close down obsolete old facilities, so it’s not our fault and we see no reason to accept responsibility for this outcome”

 

[InTheMiddle]

A thing’s value is not determined by the money and time put into it, it’s worth whatever value it provides.

FSD in its current form does not provide anywhere near what it costs. Anyone who bought it say 5 years ago and is now ready to trade in that car got ripped off, and that’s sad. They paid full price for a product that was never released beyond beta testing.

One should not extrapolate their personal value judgements to be universal. Worth varies per person based on the value that person gets from it. What you may find “not worth it” or a rip/off, another person might reasonably feel “totally worth it” and one of the best values of anything they’ve bought. I’m one of those who did pay for FSD 5 years ago, and I feel I’ve already received more “value” from it than what I paid (even more than the current FSD price), although I have no plans to trade it in soon and so will continue to get even more value from it. But even if I were to trade it in tomorrow with $0 value for the FSD option, I personally would still have found the purchase totally worth it and to have been a great value *to me*.

 

[Ogre]

Or it’s another word for “management spent decades not investing in reducing friction and bureaucracy involved in engineering change orders and didn’t let the engineers use up-to-date microcontrollers within twenty years of the current state of the art and then predictably ran out of supply after canceling orders thus prompting semiconductor fabricators to close down old facilities, so it’s not our fault and we won’t take responsibility for failing”

I'm not sold on the idea that this is *just* tech debt catching up with them, but if it is, it is hilarious.

I've been in companies that want to kick tech debt down the road month after month, I can imagine how frustrating it would be for an engineer to have it happen for 5+ years running.

As a software developer, it's not hard to see why it's so hard for these companies to attract top engineering talent.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

David trainer(new constructs) is definitely trash & has an anti Tesla agenda. Zombie stocks? Tesla having a high rate of cash burn so comparable to dying stocks . Not vs rate of cash minting! Moronic . None of the Tesla pieces in Yahoo are worth reading. Almost ever. Wish I could slap some of these fools.

 

[Gigapress]

I'm not sold on the idea that this is *just* tech debt catching up with them, but if it is, it is hilarious.

I've been in companies that want to kick tech debt down the road month after month, I can imagine how frustrating it would be for an engineer to have it happen for 5+ years running.

As a software developer, it's not hard to see why it's so hard for these companies to attract top engineering talent.

Yeah it’s probably not just tech debt. I was exaggerating a bit. It’s hard to know without being an insider at lagacy auto.

 

[Speedr117]

A thing’s value is not determined by the money and time put into it, it’s worth whatever value it provides.

FSD in its current form does not provide anywhere near what it costs. Anyone who bought it say 5 years ago and is now ready to trade in that car got ripped off, and that’s sad. They paid full price for a product that was never released beyond beta testing.

Agree, but that's not their goal, IMHO. Notice how the MONTHLY FSD payment hasn't changed, and is still at $199/month? My guess is the two reasons they keep hiking the FSD price is to force more people to either not buy it, or subscribe to it instead. Unlike the old days, they don't need the money sitting in a bank account (since they can't realize all of it yet). The other reason has to do with keeping the price of used Teslas high. They add FSD to their used cars, therefore increasing their value (without any cost to them).

 

[elasalle]

3 magical words for the Conf call "No Demand Issues "...


bonus ...
9K ton giga press and CT update
announcement of new GF (Canada??)

 

[Speedr117]

We know as some of us are engineers in the field of autonomous driving and AI. Anyone can predict anything out that long into the future. Some companies are actually building it and putting it on detailed display for the whole world to see.

Typically, if a business division is about to explode with profits, you don't spin it off and IPO it and give away all the profits to the "public". Especially a company like Intel that needs all the profits and growth it can get (which is why they bought Mobieye in the first place).

 

[UncaNed]

A thing’s value is not determined by the money and time put into it, it’s worth whatever value it provides.

FSD in its current form does not provide anywhere near what it costs. Anyone who bought it say 5 years ago and is now ready to trade in that car got ripped off, and that’s sad. They paid full price for a product that was never released beyond beta testing.

I'm sort of in that boat. But I still feel like I got a good enough deal on my Model X overall.

 

[Gigapress]

3 magical words for the Conf call "No Demand Issues "...

If the analysts don’t already understand the other obvious signs of strong demand, what makes you think they’ll understand plain unambiguous English?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think "Parts" is another word for customers....

What part shortage? Here's my world...

Today I just received another box of radio modules from the UK (see, they still trade outside). And then, last week an obsolete motion chip suddenly appeared in volume (80K+). This is interesting... TDK can't shake a good ol' motion chip, so maybe these are also in automotive? Have Ford call me...

 

[elasalle]

If the analysts don’t already understand the other obvious signs of strong demand, what makes you think they’ll understand plain unambiguous English?

Conf calls are the times where Mgmt turns on light at the end of the tunnel happens every quarter.

It's not that they don't understand, but part of their job is to create FUD , so that the MM, Hedgies can print their monies. (That's how the Alphas are hunting )

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Demand is nutty. I always forget how many Teslas there are in Los Altos!!! Super bullish. Far surpassing any Prius / hybrid boom from the past. ~50% of cars I saw this morning on the way to 280 were Tesla. About 20 S/X..few 3s(~1.5 mi drive) Amazing. Even on the north coast I’m seeing a buttload of new Ys and 3s. Probably the highest volume company w/ new car sales around Humboldt

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The prophet has spoken: