Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

Naturally Tesla has to say the new colours are not available out of the other factories for technical reasons.

If they say "we're working on adding them, we think they'll be available in about a month" - great way to soften demand!!!

Expect the new colours to become available everywhere else - if they are successful out of the German factory - without warning. "Uh, remember those colours we said were not do-able for technical reasons? We figured out how to do them... and they're available NOW"

 

[MountainRatMat]

After backing out the ~6% change in odometer (and therefore WH/mi) my highway range has actually improved. (Lower RR than the pirelli P0s?)

City milage is a bit worse (unsprung, rotating weight?) but that's irrelevant since range only matters (to me) for road trips anyway.

Thanks for keeping us on topic in the investor thread...

 

[cliff harris]

Just a random theory:
Elon has said before (I think back in cybertruck announcement era) that they were done with new product announcements for a while. Right now, we are waiting for Cybertruck, Semi and Roadster.
I suspect they may be much further along than normal with a new product, but Elon doesnt want to have a 'vaporware' feel to anything new, and wants the unshipped product list to be capped. This makes a lot of sense, and I'm glad they are aware of that.

So it might be that once the first 100 or so semis have shipped, which could be by January, that we see an announcement of a new product. I'm guessing a lower cost smaller model. Maybe not robotaxi, as regulations are way too slow for that, but a cheaper, smaller Tesla.

I also think that once actual customer shipments of the semi are a thing, the company will get a lot more institutional love. Semi trucks are a hard economics game, not something that varies with what elon tweets about. It will help diversify the company, and the trucks will be in constant use, so great branding. I reckon we will see the impact on institutional investors by the end of the year.

 

[EVDRVN]

It seems that Elon is saying that Austin does not have the capability:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583345981906571264

Makes sense, Berlin can apply many fine layers of paint where Fremont can apply one very fine layer. I can vouch for that personally.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I never thought about color as being a demand lever. That cherry red looks amazing. I could see dumping my white Y for one of those if they become available in US.

Other possible demand levers:
• lower price
• longer range
• free supercharging (limited time or lifetime)
• free FSD sub for N months
• extended premium connectivity trial

One thing the bears miss is that they assume Tesla is in steady state and will not change. In reality, they can change w/o notice in ways we cannot predict.

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583316817199902725

Damn, my red Model 3 is very jealous!

And yes, IMO this is on topic since the wait list went to 7 months overnight for this color. Amazing demand lever.

New capacity bottleneck in Berlin, Osborn effect on other colors. TPT is slower due to many extra paint layers. We're gonna miss targets!
/s

 

[larmor]

I never thought about color as being a demand lever. That cherry red looks amazing. I could see dumping my white Y for one of those if they become available in US.

Other possible demand levers:
• lower price
• longer range
• free supercharging (limited time or lifetime)
• free FSD sub for N months
• extended premium connectivity trial

One thing the bears miss is that they assume Tesla is in steady state and will not change. In reality, they can change w/o notice in ways we cannot predict.

I don't think the color change or option is a demand lever. It was planned and I believe was mentioned years ago when GF Berlin was going up.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Just a random theory:
Elon has said before (I think back in cybertruck announcement era) that they were done with new product announcements for a while. Right now, we are waiting for Cybertruck, Semi and Roadster.
I suspect they may be much further along than normal with a new product, but Elon doesnt want to have a 'vaporware' feel to anything new, and wants the unshipped product list to be capped. This makes a lot of sense, and I'm glad they are aware of that.

So it might be that once the first 100 or so semis have shipped, which could be by January, that we see an announcement of a new product. I'm guessing a lower cost smaller model. Maybe not robotaxi, as regulations are way too slow for that, but a cheaper, smaller Tesla.

I also think that once actual customer shipments of the semi are a thing, the company will get a lot more institutional love. Semi trucks are a hard economics game, not something that varies with what elon tweets about. It will help diversify the company, and the trucks will be in constant use, so great branding. I reckon we will see the impact on institutional investors by the end of the year.

I think that is a good theory, and it might make sense to wait until Cybertruck is out as well so then there is only the Roadster that hasn't shipped yet.

 

[Tachyon]

Is there capping going on at $212? Seems a bit random

Looks refreshingly familiar

 

[wnorris]

I never thought about color as being a demand lever. That cherry red looks amazing. I could see dumping my white Y for one of those if they become available in US.

Other possible demand levers:
• lower price
• longer range
• free supercharging (limited time or lifetime)
• free FSD sub for N months
• extended premium connectivity trial

One thing the bears miss is that they assume Tesla is in steady state and will not change. In reality, they can change w/o notice in ways we cannot predict.

Normally color would not be thought of as a demand lever for autos since traditionally there is a wide selection of choice, but interestingly enough Tesla has limited color options so long they could pull something like this off. How nice would it be for Tesla to introduce a seasonal color in a market to boost demand as needed? Give it a nice name and a limited date or production run (say 50k to 100k units) and boom instant demand creation (or pull forward).

 

[Speedr117]

Normally color would not be thought of as a demand lever for autos since traditionally there is a wide selection of choice, but interestingly enough Tesla has limited color options so long they could pull something like this off. How nice would it be for Tesla to introduce a seasonal color in a market to boost demand as needed? Give it a nice name and a limited date or production run (say 50k to 100k units) and boom instant demand creation.

Apple is the model, not traditional car companies. Look at the excitement when the Gold color was introduced, and now Purple (on the high end models). Tesla will never have a billion models or colors, just like Apple (vs. Nokia that had a ton of both).

 

[Buckminster]

@Mengy described Gary Black as a mild bull. Thought I would have a go at creating some levels:

TSLA Bull - 2-10% of portfolio (S&P ETFs etc. excluded)
TSLA Big Bull - 10-100% of portfolio but doesn't believe FSD/RT will contribute more than 10% of market cap before 2030
TSLA Super Bull - 50-200% of non margin portfolio but doesn't believe Optimus will contribute more than 10% of market cap before 2030
TSLA Hyper Bull - 80%+ of non margin portfolio and believes market cap will exceed $20T before 2030

 

[SOULPEDL]

Apple is the model, not traditional car companies. Look at the excitement when the Gold color was introduced, and now Purple (on the high end models). Tesla will never have a billion models or colors, just like Apple (vs. Nokia that had a ton of both).

Looking at paint on the service side, my white MY is one of 9 different whites so I'm told. You can see the difference next to her white 3. This translates to a $7K repair (live quote on mine, paint feathering on side panels etc) when the hatch is only $1,200 no paint or window. By the way "White is difficult due to the 3 layers and metal...." according to the paint lady. If they could only lock in on one color, repair could be amazing and just stock the parts to charge double at a discount and pleasant experience for the consumer. It's just a tighter control chart - Tesla can do this.

Tesla did discuss years ago getting to a quick turn-around body shop, but I think we're going the other way all because of paint. Just imagine a dent on Cherry Red! Who could even service that? So is the SC going to adapt and do 9 layers by hand?

All that aside, I'd still get one... if I could. So who's going to flip and import them here?

 

[lafrisbee]

Makes sense, Berlin can apply many fine layers of paint where Fremont can apply one very fine layer. I can vouch for that personally.

I read yesterday(?) that austin got gov't approval to expand the paint shop..so elon did not lie, and yet it could happen soon.

 

[Snerruc]

That seems incredibly short sighted on the part of the Austin plant. New colors to the US would be extremely welcome.

I take it as saying GB is the only plant having it installed. Not a statement about GA capability. A tremendous amount of paint equipment is being installed currently in Austin.

 

[jkirkwood001]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583427070176432128

I think Karen has more insight than most (). We miss her insights here on TMC:

 

[Hock1]

Is there capping going on at $212? Seems a bit random

I think we are experiencing a "volume before price moment". Remember the last one? I think it was early '20 ( I forget the price then) when Kathy Wood, who had recently predicted the $4,000 SP (pre-splits) was on CNBC and was asked why the stock was trading in a very narrow range and appeared to be non-reactive to her prediction. She explained that when a stock trades in a very narrow range for a seemingly long time, the break-out and ensuing trajectory of the SP will be extreme. As we all know, the share price soared, I believe it was, 743% for the year. I.e. "volume before price", indeed.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Hard to believe but a SA bear is leaning bullish on TSLA and wrote a reasonable article. Bottom indicator?

Tesla Stock: One Of The Largest Bears Changing His Tune

Tesla is proving me wrong; its progress is undeniable and its valuation is getting more realistic. See why I'm starting to gravitate toward bullish on TSLA.

seekingalpha.com

I need to get to a hospital after reading a SA article like this to check for cardiac arrest... We are definitely in the Matrix when SA posts a positive TSLA article

 

[Dangerous Fish]

I think we are experiencing a "volume before price moment". Remember the last one? I think it was early '20 ( I forget the price then) when Kathy Wood, who had recently predicted the $4,000 SP (pre-splits) was on CNBC and was asked why the stock was trading in a very narrow range and appeared to be non-reactive to her prediction. She explained that when a stock trades in a very narrow range for a seemingly long time, the break-out and ensuing trajectory of the SP will be extreme. As we all know, the share price soared, I believe it was, 743% for the year. I.e. "volume before price", indeed.

That would be nice. I could do with some good news TBH.

I've been wondering if I should report IBKR to the Police for harrassment. They keep sending me emails telling me I'm going to be liquidated.

 

[Singuy]

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