Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WattsHappening]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584553493691478016

Some chatter on Twitter indicating insiders can't trade TSLA shares until 24 hours after 10Q is filed. If this is true, Elon isn't selling today, as the 10Q was filed just today.

Is this correct? I had it in my head Elon could sell as early as today. I was kinda hoping Elon selling today was the main reason for the big volume and SP drop.

 

[InTheMiddle]

You are correct. The misguided idea that advertising would benefit Tesla and the mission has been presented many times before.

Where you really go off the rails is to suggest that advertising would have the "added benefit of educating people about EV's in general, and Tesla in particular." Using customer money to educate Tesla customers is just crazy talk because most people assume advertisements are biased and are the least trustworthy source of information about a product or service. People trust family, friends, co-workers and neighbors who actually own and drive a Tesla every day. And those people are growing 50% compounded annually. No other car company has a salesforce growing that quickly.

The one thing that sets Tesla apart from all legacy auto manufacturers is that you have never seen Tesla spend a wad of customer's cash to convince them to buy their products using slick ads developed by marketing experts. This is an important differentiator between Tesla and the rest. The human subconscious has evolved over millions of years to categorize things without the individual even being aware of it. It's a powerful advantage for Tesla to be different from the rest and, once that is lost, it can never be recovered. Your subconscious mind knows who has to pimp their cars, and who doesn't. You cannot undo an advertising campaign. Not only is the money down the toilet, but the damage is also lasting and irreversible. I want Tesla to remain different from the rest.

Two thoughts:

1. Conjecture: Some subset of the population *thinks* about things, considering the rational implications, etc, but many more go by how they *feel*. Advertising over the past few decades appears to have trended away from "Here is information about our product" and towards the "Here is the emotion you should feel about our product". Result appears to be far more effective short term and far more 'sticky' on how that consumer perceives that item long term, making the advertising far more effective (very unfortunately, IMHO). If this conjecture is correct (which I believe it is correct but wish it weren't), then would you support Tesla doing it because it works, or would this be a lever you would not want Tesla to pull even if it would be very effective?

2. Other than "Do nothing", is there an actual *action* you would suggest Tesla take to educate consumers? I personally would not support traditional advertising (TV / mail / online ads / social media ads / etc), but I could be OK with approaches such as:

• Enable easier free loans of products to TV / movie studios. Not paying to place product - simply making it easier for vehicles / houses with solar roof / etc are easily available for free, rather than the current one-offs where individuals loan their personal cars to studios.
• Short (5-10 seconds max) info-videos (not ads) in social media and potentially even on TV. Video of a Model S Plaid dominating at the track with a "Plaid crushes yet another <supercar> on the track. Just thought you should know." voiceover. Photo of a family of 4 in front of their Model Y with a tagline of "Their 2,500 mile summer trip was no problem with SuperChargers, and saved them $<x> vs gas in an Accord. Just thought you should know." in front. Idea is to never mention price, try to avoid doing anything that would require a lot of fine print on the screen to disclaimer it, etc, just a link to Tesla.com's existing page with longer videos. (Note: Tesla's various social media accounts already do this somewhat; I would propose significantly increasing it.)

What *action* do you think Tesla should take in place of traditional advertising (or "Do nothing")?

 

[wipster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584450232745545730

Ha! Teslike has banned me and all i did was disagree with him... well it was in a nastygram so there's that.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584553493691478016

Some chatter on Twitter indicating insiders can't trade TSLA shares until 24 ours after 10Q is filed. If this is true, Elon isn't selling today, as the 10Q was filed just today.

Is this correct? I had it in my head Elon could sell as early as today. I was kinda hoping Elon selling today was the main reason for the big volume and SP drop.

so who's masquerading as Elon and dumping them shares what was their intent

 

[bkp_duke]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584553493691478016

Some chatter on Twitter indicating insiders can't trade TSLA shares until 24 ours after 10Q is filed. If this is true, Elon isn't selling today, as the 10Q was filed just today.

Is this correct? I had it in my head Elon could sell as early as today. I was kinda hoping Elon selling today was the main reason for the big volume and SP drop.

It reads that way. If this is true and Elon has to sell, tomorrow is pretty much his last chance, given the settlement period for securities transactions (i.e. sell tomorrow, funds in his act by Friday, just barely in time to wire for TWTR purchase).





In other news, to no one's surprise, as volume today has subsided, there is substantial capping going on at 205. Every time we hit close to that, you can see the stock getting batted back down.

 

[bkp_duke]

Ha! Teslike has banned me and all i did was disagree with him... well it was in a nastygram so there's that.

@Troy is destroying his own reputation by not being open to criticism and divergent opinions.

 

[Unpilot]

Only on the board could the SP be down 5%, and we come to the conclusion that some whale is buying.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Correct, and Vol was what I called it. (The Dodger made sure I knew the difference some time ago.)

I agree, it's important to track that Vol chart throughout the day because (unlike the Open Interest chart), it get updated about once an hour during the main session.

I'd appreciate it if you'd post another screenie of the Vol chart in a few hours. If the price stays in this narrow trading range (as it has since about 10:35 ET), I expect their won't be a large increase in 200 Put volume.

TIA!

 

[ggies07]

 

[MP3Mike]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584553493691478016

Some chatter on Twitter indicating insiders can't trade TSLA shares until 24 hours after 10Q is filed. If this is true, Elon isn't selling today, as the 10Q was filed just today.

Is this correct? I had it in my head Elon could sell as early as today. I was kinda hoping Elon selling today was the main reason for the big volume and SP drop.

The question is: Who's policy is that that they are showing? Most people perform a Google search and just assume that it is returning what they are asking for instead of some random company's insider trading policy.

In other words: Is that really Tesla's policy? Is that a formal SEC policy? (I noticed that they didn't provide a link to it.)

 

[hacer]

So… um… yea…

It seems that you learned the wrong lesson. Pity for you that your guess was right because it will reinforce your delusion that you can accurately predict future prices. Notice that my statement implied uncertainty ("maybe") while yours never did.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Only on the board could the SP be down 5%, and we come to the conclusion that some whale is buying.

If not for that whale, you'd be seeing -10% and the curcuit breaker (then $185 later in the week).

 

[mongo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584553493691478016

Some chatter on Twitter indicating insiders can't trade TSLA shares until 24 hours after 10Q is filed. If this is true, Elon isn't selling today, as the 10Q was filed just today.

Is this correct? I had it in my head Elon could sell as early as today. I was kinda hoping Elon selling today was the main reason for the big volume and SP drop.

They (Chris) are wrong.
Those are restrictions on the company, not Elon.
"the Company shall not request the sale of any Shares that would be sold, and no Designated Agent shall be obligated to sell ..."

The question is: Who's policy is that that they are showing? Most people perform a Google search and just assume that it is returning what they are asking for instead of some random company's insider trading policy.

In other words: Is that really Tesla's policy? Is that a formal SEC policy? (I noticed that they didn't provide a link to it.)

The snippet appears to be from the 2020 capital raise.
EX-1.1

Further, (i) and (ii) show director restrictions are different from this section.

 

[Artful Dodger]

@Prunesquallor :

Whale = mammal
Whale Shark = fish
TSLAQ = vegetable

 

[Oveeus]

Well, the morning drop hit my long time buy order. Added 1000 shares at just a tad under 200 average.

 

[Drax7]

next time Elon buys I am buying
if it turns out he is buying today
I would buy insanely

 

[WattsHappening]

They (Chris) are wrong.
Those are restrictions on the company, not Elon.
"the Company shall not request the sale of any Shares that would be sold, and no Designated Agent shall be obligated to sell ..."



The snippet appears to be from the 2020 capital raise.
EX-1.1

Further, (i) and (ii) show director restrictions are different from this section.

Thanks @mongo!

This is very helpful and a bit of a relief.

 

[Paracelsus]

It would be great if Elon is selling right now. The movement of the stock (except for the low opening) is in tandem with macros, so it would mean the market is able to absorb the shares without the bottom falling out.

…….and here I was hoping Elon is buying the dip with surplus TWTR funds so he would have a larger stake in TSLA than he did after his pre-split selling at 900+ and 1,200+, and helping to keep TSLA >$200/share in the meantime. Regardless of whether it is Elon, or Leo, or other Whales, seeing TMC posts showing how hard other stocks are getting hammered it might be worth considering that TSLA has more buys than MM’s expected on this massive volume day or we would be well below $200 IMO.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I agree, it's important to track that Vol chart throughout the day because (unlike the Open Interest chart), it get updated about once an hour during the main session.

I'd appreciate it if you'd post another screenie of the Vol chart in a few hours. If the price stays in this narrow trading range (as it has since about 10:35 ET), I expect their won't be a large increase in 200 Put volume.

TIA!

Moments later... 200 Call PUT Vol over 100K now.
So Call PUT vol increases as SP also increases.... That's bullish, no? Shorts burning ammo (and hair)?

 

[mongo]

Moments later... 200 Call Vol over 100K now.
So Call vol increases as SP also increases.... That's bullish, no? Shorts burning ammo (and hair)?

View attachment 867043

Red is puts though?
Volume is trades, so people closong short term positions increases volume just like opening (OI) them does.