Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sroh]

Elon said his last sale was insurance in case he needed more for the Twitter purchase and that he wasn't planning to sell more.

Why are so many people here convinced he is going to sell more?

I can't speak for anyone else, but here are my thoughts.

When he mentioned his last sale was insurance, that was before he agreed to the full $54.20 price. That was also before all of the information about how bad of shape Twitter was in came to light.

So, higher purchase price than might have been predicted at the time, combined with the obvious viewpoint (pointed out directly by Elon) that it's over-priced, makes me question just how many equity investors might pull out. What if all of them pulled out? Did Elon's last sale anticipate this? We have heard that he is asking around for more equity investors to join.

I'm not convinced he is going to sell more; it's very possible he has the funds needed. But I'm also not convinced that he isn't. I believe many others share this uncertainty, which is one of the overhangs that are weighing on TSLA.

Elon has had many opportunities to refute those who are suggesting he needs to sell more. Dave Lee and others have asked him directly on Twitter. He has not done so. I thought it might be because he was in the quiet period, but that's not the case anymore. The longer he stays silent, the more uncertain I become.

As you say, his last comment was he wasn't planning to sell more. But plans can and do change all the time.

EDIT: ninja'ed by @WilliamInPhx, who stated my thoughts much more succinctly.

 

[vikings123]

How much is 9.2% of Twitter worth?
Never mind, likely cannot sell.

At today's share price of 51$ it is worth about 40B so I guess around 4B.

 

[WilliamInPhx]

How much is 9.2% of Twitter worth?

To me? Pretty close to $0.00 IMHO...

 

[Unpilot]

Me checking SP.

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[MountainRatMat]

And lastly, Tesla WANTS to sell their cars at the lowest price possible so that as many people as possible can purchase them as a means to the company goal.

Close but not fully accurate. I think a better way to put it is Tesla wants to get the most number of cars on the road to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.

I'm reaching a bit with the following statement but seeing Tesla's margins I actually believe they want to sell their cars at the highest price possible while simultaneously selling as many cars as they can possibly make.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Some Chinese stocks today:

-11.4% Tencent
-14.6% Alibaba
-14.9% Xpeng
-16.0% Baidu
-18.2% NIO
-28.3% Pinduoduo

😳

This is because the market smells doom for all Chinese Ev makers not Tesla.
They don't have the margins to squeeze competition into lowering prices.
Tesla does, and has many more levers of power, if and when needed.

 

[elasalle]

This is because the market smells doom for all Chinese Ev makers not Tesla.
They don't have the margins to squeeze competition into lowering prices.
Tesla does, and has many more levers of power, if and when needed.

List includes Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, so it's more of a China macro move, rather than sector ... cheers!!

 

[traxila]

I think we are supposed to take this as a win. But I don't feel that way.

Volume well above average. Most big techs I checked are coming in below average today. Might the market be absorbing EM shares today? Possibly.

China sales in 4Q should be ricidulous now. We got the price cut that qualifies the M3 for an additional tax break on top that is expiring in Q4. Look for spectacular record production, record deliveries out of Shanghai. Of course, we know this is bad.

 

[wipster]

Two thoughts:

1. Conjecture: Some subset of the population *thinks* about things, considering the rational implications, etc, but many more go by how they *feel*. Advertising over the past few decades appears to have trended away from "Here is information about our product" and towards the "Here is the emotion you should feel about our product". Result appears to be far more effective short term and far more 'sticky' on how that consumer perceives that item long term, making the advertising far more effective (very unfortunately, IMHO). If this conjecture is correct (which I believe it is correct but wish it weren't), then would you support Tesla doing it because it works, or would this be a lever you would not want Tesla to pull even if it would be very effective?

2. Other than "Do nothing", is there an actual *action* you would suggest Tesla take to educate consumers? I personally would not support traditional advertising (TV / mail / online ads / social media ads / etc), but I could be OK with approaches such as:

• Enable easier free loans of products to TV / movie studios. Not paying to place product - simply making it easier for vehicles / houses with solar roof / etc are easily available for free, rather than the current one-offs where individuals loan their personal cars to studios.
• Short (5-10 seconds max) info-videos (not ads) in social media and potentially even on TV. Video of a Model S Plaid dominating at the track with a "Plaid crushes yet another <supercar> on the track. Just thought you should know." voiceover. Photo of a family of 4 in front of their Model Y with a tagline of "Their 2,500 mile summer trip was no problem with SuperChargers, and saved them $<x> vs gas in an Accord. Just thought you should know." in front. Idea is to never mention price, try to avoid doing anything that would require a lot of fine print on the screen to disclaimer it, etc, just a link to Tesla.com's existing page with longer videos. (Note: Tesla's various social media accounts already do this somewhat; I would propose significantly increasing it.)

What *action* do you think Tesla should take in place of traditional advertising (or "Do nothing")?

I agree with your number 2, which is basically marketing. Making sure Tesla vehicles (and other products) are visible is cheap and effective. The use of Model X's for transport at SpaceX launches is brilliant as is the inclusion of them in TV shows, movies, commercials, sporting events costs little, buy adds significant visibility... I know I personally always notice Tesla's when I see them on screen. One of the earliest product placements was several years ago on "Person of Interest" when a model S drove and dropped off Finch in front of a hotel(?) where he got out of the back seat and when the valet went to the driver's door, no one was there to his amazement! In that case, it was The Machine and not FSD, but it was still way cool!

I also like the idea of creating case studies to educate people about EV's and Tesla's in particular. There was a short movie clip posted here several months ago where someone was passed out in a Model S that showed off almost all of the cool features of Tesla's... if anyone remembers where to find it, I would love to watch it again as it's a great example of what can be done.

Anyway, subtle things like vehicle exposure and inclusions into stories that show off just what BEV's and Teslas in particular can do is inexpensive, informative, and would help educate the public about the capabilites of Teslas, at least in my opinion.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I think you're owed lots n lots of 'mea culpas' from those who thought you were being overly dramatic / pessimistic calling $200 three weeks ago.

Well done, @OrthoSurg ! Oh wait... 😥

And I bought 120 shares

 

[sroh]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584606782927867906

I sure hope this is correct. Can't get past this fast enough.

 

[ThisStockGood]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584610137507254272

Hope he is right…

 

[hobbes]

Berlin ramp seems to be proceeding well judging from VIN-analysis (which can be misleading), also anectodally supported by lots of trailers waiting yesterday (Sunday) for Monday´s production:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584550178358693888

 

[FSDtester#1]

List includes Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, so it's more of a China macro move, rather than sector ... cheers!!

I agree for now, but "when the US competition starts coming" at Tesla,
They can do the same thing, lowering prices so people have to buy a Tesla and put the OEM's on sale at the local dollar store.
Whether Elon decides to use that power in the future remains to be seen

 

[MikeC]

Confirming @mongo post earlier today:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584622349063946241

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584610137507254272

Hope he is right…

4M shares is just 800M $?
Does he mean done selling or just done for today?

+ read the thread, seems fact checking was referring to pre-split number, he thinks vol supports 10-15M ...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

IF....IF Elon was selling this morning that contributed to $TSLA going below $200 for a split second, consider us escaping unscathed today

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584606782927867906

I sure hope this is correct. Can't get past this fast enough.

well, I hear TikTok is a bargain right now…

 

[Budding]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584610137507254272

Hope he is right…

That would just be about $800M. Probably not enough. The overall volume doesnt seem that much higher. There was the other post couple pages back about the 24 hour restriction after 10Q. If thats true, he will start selling tomorrow at the earliest (if he needs to sell)

 

[BornToFly]

I think Elon punked everyone today. He probably knew there would be front running on any sales, so he didn't sell any. Tomorrow we are probably green in premarket, and he will sell at the open....