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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I don't know about the rest of you but i am really tired of hearing about Musk and Twitter .... this week can not end soon enough ... but wait that likely wont be the end of the Twitter overhang :
Option 1) Musk completes Twitter purchase ,endless stream of BS about how he is destroying Twitter as an evil owner.... bad for TSLA, 70% chance
Option2) Musk lets it go trial ... endless stream of BS about the trial ....then he has to buy Twitter... see option 1... bad for TSLA, 25% chance
Option 3) Musk pays a breakup fee by some miracle and walks away ... good for TSLA, 5% chance

please someone walk me off the ledge .... the only negative that goes away by Friday if Musk buys Twitter is him selling TSLA stock in the short term ...we are looking at many more months of FUD and media distractions for the 2 likely scenarios ,I am not saying Elon will be distracted but by association TSLA may remain in a funk

usually the FUD against Tesla and Elon is just that FUD ... but with Twitter purchase it is not FUD it was a unforced error that is possibly harming Tesla the business over a sustained period

when Elon takes on big auto and big oil the media can in theory go either way ... when he takes on another media company it only goes one way Musk is the pariah.

i know there is a thread for this .. but for reason this is hitting me as a real potentially significant risk for TSLA ... tell why i am wrong please !!!!

Edit : silver lining is prolonged buying opportunity o_O
My opinion is that the main reason TSLA is in a funk is because of Musk’s selling and expectation of selling. Hedge funds and MMs are front-running and shorting the stock in anticipation of additional sales. Once it’s clear there are no more sales from Elon (“Twitter Overhang”), and especially as evidence builds of Tesla’s massive Q4, I think we’ll recover to the $300ish range.

Just my read on the situation.
 
My opinion is that the main reason TSLA is in a funk is because of Musk’s selling and expectation of selling. Hedge funds and MMs are front-running and shorting the stock in anticipation of additional sales. Once it’s clear there are no more sales from Elon (“Twitter Overhang”), and especially as evidence builds of Tesla’s massive Q4, I think we’ll recover to the $300ish range.

Just my read on the situation.
You honestly think the fear of Elon musk selling $5 billion worth of stock is so powerful that once it goes away we rally 50%? a 330 billion market cap increase?
 

The current "unexpected" demand for EV's creates a huge dilemma for Toyota. From my time in the auto industry we always saw Toyota as very conservative based on tear downs and technology reviews. They introduce new technology on a model or 2 and very slowly expand to other models to allow time to work out any kinks or defects. Most of the cars have very mature component designs that have been proven over many years. One reason their cars are one of the highest in reliability scores.

They now are faced with the dilemma that they need to plan for a fast transition. They are totally risk adverse and its just not in their DNA to take on a huge risk by diving into EV's by committing a large % of volume to them. They are faced with the fact they need to go all in very quickly but they won't. They are just too conservative and will want to slowly transition to be sure they have reliability which they are known.

Honestly, I just don't see how this ends well for them.
 

The current "unexpected" demand for EV's creates a huge dilemma for Toyota. From my time in the auto industry we always saw Toyota as very conservative based on tear downs and technology reviews. They introduce new technology on a model or 2 and very slowly expand to other models to allow time to work out any kinks or defects. Most of the cars have very mature component designs that have been proven over many years. One reason their cars are one of the highest in reliability scores.

They now are faced with the dilemma that they need to plan for a fast transition. They are totally risk adverse and its just not in their DNA to take on a huge risk by diving into EV's by committing a large % of volume to them. They are faced with the fact they need to go all in very quickly but they won't. They are just too conservative and will want to slowly transition to be sure they have reliability which they are known.

Honestly, I just don't see how this ends well for them.
Other incumbents have 2 choices ICE or EV,
Toyota has 3 choices now ICE, hydrogen and EV .... ;)
 

The current "unexpected" demand for EV's creates a huge dilemma for Toyota. From my time in the auto industry we always saw Toyota as very conservative based on tear downs and technology reviews. They introduce new technology on a model or 2 and very slowly expand to other models to allow time to work out any kinks or defects. Most of the cars have very mature component designs that have been proven over many years. One reason their cars are one of the highest in reliability scores.

They now are faced with the dilemma that they need to plan for a fast transition. They are totally risk adverse and its just not in their DNA to take on a huge risk by diving into EV's by committing a large % of volume to them. They are faced with the fact they need to go all in very quickly but they won't. They are just too conservative and will want to slowly transition to be sure they have reliability which they are known.

Honestly, I just don't see how this ends well for them.

You'd think TSLAQ would clue in by now that Tesla is the dominant player in a rapidly expanding industry, but noooooo. They still cling to their fraud fantasy while Toyota, VW, Ford, Mercedes, etc are rejiggering their entire companies to keep Tesla from eating their lunch.
 

The current "unexpected" demand for EV's creates a huge dilemma for Toyota. From my time in the auto industry we always saw Toyota as very conservative based on tear downs and technology reviews. They introduce new technology on a model or 2 and very slowly expand to other models to allow time to work out any kinks or defects. Most of the cars have very mature component designs that have been proven over many years. One reason their cars are one of the highest in reliability scores.

They now are faced with the dilemma that they need to plan for a fast transition. They are totally risk adverse and its just not in their DNA to take on a huge risk by diving into EV's by committing a large % of volume to them. They are faced with the fact they need to go all in very quickly but they won't. They are just too conservative and will want to slowly transition to be sure they have reliability which they are known.

Honestly, I just don't see how this ends well for them.
The obvious solution for Toyota is to spend money on politicians to slow the transition. Their interests align with others'.
 
You honestly think the fear of Elon musk selling $5 billion worth of stock is so powerful that once it goes away we rally 50%? a 330 billion market cap increase?
Do you remember how much it moved down and up the first time he sold?

Yes, absolutely. Been around the block a few times with TSLA.

May 29 TSLA closed at $209.39. Aug 4 it closed at $308.63.

Mar 14 TSLA closed at $255.46. Apr 4 it closed at $381.82.

Wall Street crooks and the media create FUD to exaggerate pushdowns. They snatch up shares, then start praising to shift sentiment and push the price up. They make money by increasing volatility in both directions. Unaware retail investors are usually the ones that fund their yachts, mansions, and Bugattis.
 
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I don't know about the rest of you but i am really tired of hearing about Musk and Twitter .... this week can not end soon enough ... but wait that likely wont be the end of the Twitter overhang :
Option 1) Musk completes Twitter purchase ,endless stream of BS about how he is destroying Twitter as an evil owner.... bad for TSLA, 70% chance
Option2) Musk lets it go trial ... endless stream of BS about the trial ....then he has to buy Twitter... see option 1... bad for TSLA, 25% chance
Option 3) Musk pays a breakup fee by some miracle and walks away ... good for TSLA, 5% chance

please someone walk me off the ledge .... the only negative that goes away by Friday if Musk buys Twitter is him selling TSLA stock in the short term ...we are looking at many more months of FUD and media distractions for the 2 likely scenarios ,I am not saying Elon will be distracted but by association TSLA may remain in a funk

usually the FUD against Tesla and Elon is just that FUD ... but with Twitter purchase it is not FUD it was a unforced error that is possibly harming Tesla the business over a sustained period

when Elon takes on big auto and big oil the media can in theory go either way ... when he takes on another media company it only goes one way Musk is the pariah.

i know there is a thread for this .. but for reason this is hitting me as a real potentially significant risk for TSLA ... tell why i am wrong please !!!!

Edit : silver lining is prolonged buying opportunity o_O
Unfortunately, I think Option 3 has less than a 1% probability. I listened to a couple of interviews with Ross Gerber. He stated with seeming certainty that the deal will close by Friday. It sounds like he has inside information( perhaps as an equity investor in the TWTR deal?). I know he can be a bit of a blowhard, but it was pretty clear to me he has inside knowledge. Otherwise, he's going to look like a fool on CNBS and other media. Someone like him can't afford that to happen.

So I think it's option 1, and I agree with you that there will be an unending stream of hate and vitriol headed his way, and it's hard to think that TSLA won't be impacted.

But at some point, numbers will speak for themselves and Wall Street will have to come around to what an undervalued stock TSLA is. For the sake of my January and March calls, I hope it's soon.
 
Do you remember how much it moved down and up the first time he sold?

Yes, absolutely. Been around the block a few times with TSLA.

May 29 TSLA closed at $209.39. Aug 4 it closed at $308.63.

Mar 14 TSLA closed at $255.46. Apr 4 it closed at $381.82.

Wall Street crooks and the media create FUD to exaggerate pushdowns. They snatch up shares, then start praising to shift sentiment and push the price up. They make money by increasing volatility in both directions. Unaware retail investors are usually the ones that fund their yachts, mansions, and Bugattis.

Lol I'm so confused here. Are you just picking random peaks and troughs? Elon had sold 0 shares from between January and end of April. So why are you telling me March 14 to April 4 as dates? This is completely random and does not prove your point what so ever.
 
Lol I'm so confused here. Are you just picking random peaks and troughs? Elon had sold 0 shares from between January and end of April. So why are you telling me March 14 to April 4 as dates? This is completely random and does not prove your point what so ever.
Your argument was that something as trivial as $5B in expected sale of stock couldn’t cause a $300B swing in market cap.

My point was that several times this year we’ve swung back and forth by that amount, despite Tesla as a company executing to plan.

Take a look at how much TSLA went up during the gamma squeeze last Fall, triggered by Hertz putting in an order for cars.

Such massive swings happen all the time with TSLA, a stock that is so heavily traded in options.
 
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If elon bought a house, a really expensive house, and invited everyone over, even johnny depp, and had a party every night, he can do that because it's his money? Am I off base here?

So just like some of us will buy a car or house, or now a very small island, he is buying twitter. Last I checked tesla, the car company is still making cars despite a world ending supply chain shortage, tesla the AI company is still processing videos, tagging, and self identifying them for FSD development, tesla the solar company is still making solar panels, and tesla the battery company still is making batteries.

The market is going crazy over his purchase of twitter and whether he should or could fund it from his own stocks, but should really be asking him if you want to get to 20 million cars per annum then where are the next factories going up? That is much more germane to tesla than some bots or people or people-bots on a social media platform.
 
If elon bought a house, a really expensive house, and invited everyone over, even johnny depp, and had a party every night, he can do that because it's his money? Am I off base here?

So just like some of us will buy a car or house, or now a very small island, he is buying twitter. Last I checked tesla, the car company is still making cars despite a world ending supply chain shortage, tesla the AI company is still processing videos, tagging, and self identifying them for FSD development, tesla the solar company is still making solar panels, and tesla the battery company still is making batteries.

The market is going crazy over his purchase of twitter and whether he should or could fund it from his own stocks, but should really be asking him if you want to get to 20 million cars per annum then where are the next factories going up? That is much more germane to tesla than some bots or people or people-bots on a social media platform.

The problem is that it's not just the market that's going crazy. If you look around, it's practically every part of society worldwide. This isn't Elon Musk's responsibility to fix, but he's putting himself in a position to be that person even though his skillset is in product, engineering, and business.

In that guise, money doesn't really matter much if the overlying societal issues aren't resolved and things continue to get worse and worse for people. If they are resolved and/or the human condition continues to improve (like it did the past decade during that bull run), then party all the time!

We are not in a party all the time type of situation, IMO.